Punch

Tim Graham ‏@ByTimGraham Just spoke to source close to Lovie Smith who says "Lovie feels very good about" Bills being a good fit. Don't know if Bills feel same.

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/01/01/head-coach-search-team-heads-west/ WGR mentioned that buffalobills.com confirmed they were heading to Arizona, but if you read Chris Brown's confirmation, it refers back to non-confirmation confirmation that Brandon made on WGR. So--- it's likely that's what is happening tomorrow, but it's not exactly an iron clad confirmation.

Following the collective catharsis of the previous several posts, this post makes me laugh because it just drags it all back up to the surface.

A little clarification on "Football Analytics" from Chris Brown: Bills new President and CEO Russ Brandon made mention of establishing a layer of analytics to the organization that will analyze the club from top to bottom. But there’s a player evaluation element to it that will likely assist in completing the assessment of a player on the roster or prospective player. “Yeah, we want to make sure we look at everything relative to our operation and make sure we’re making good and smart decisions,” Brandon told Buffalobills.com. ”And that really focuses on player evaluation and it focuses mainly on cap management. Scouting is still the lifeblood of our organization and it always will be as long as I’m here. It’s just other opportunities that present themselves. You see it throughout baseball; you see it in the NBA. It’s just another resource and a tool that should be in your war chest as you move forward.” Managing the salary cap as it pertains to players likely means that the analytics will provide an additional layer in assessing what a player’s true worth is to the team based on advanced metrics of on field performance.

My wariness with Brandon only stems from not knowing where his loyalties lay in regards to the concept of Littman & Co. That could be overblown on my part (and I certainly hope that it is), but it's still there.

It doesn't appear to be an issue as in 2009: Whisenhunt and Ray Horton are being interviewed tomorrow and Lovie Smith has already expressed (confirmed) interest in the job. According to WGR, 20-25 coaches have contacted the Bills with interest--- who they are exactly isn't known, aside from Lovie. The options don't appear to be limited.

There do appear to be several seasons of mediocrity with Lovie's record, but a few things that should be taken into consideration: Jerry Angelo is an obstacle at the GM position; the roster is in decline, agewise; Lovie's best season returned the Bears to the Super Bowl despite Rex Grossman at QB. I don't have particularly strong feelings for Lovie Smith, but I do think he'd be an excellent caretaker to return the franchise to respectability. I do not think he is the type of transformative new mind I'd like to see take the Bills into the future, but I think he's had some success in a tough division despite many organizational obstacles.

The top caliber of available coaches had a particular price range; ESPN and the NFL Network reported the Bills were willing to meet that price; the Bills met with these coaches. It's something I have chosen to believe in the sense that it is a series of facts reported by major news outlets that go hand in hand. But you are right, I wasn't in the room--- but I also wasn't in the room when Ralph Wilson told Russ Brandon he is the new caretaker of the franchise. That is also "something I have chosen to believe" that I didn't see with my own eyes. I don't have much of anything invested in this aside from the fact that I don't really understand your major issue with semantics. You win the day, I guess.

Yes, I read it. Perhaps they didn't specifically offer $10M to Shanny, but the likes of Shanahan, Gruden and Cowher would not bother meeting with the Bills if they were unwilling to pay them accordingly.

Simple Yes or No question: do you like the roster today on a whole more than in 2009?

WGR suggesting that the Analytics Dept. is mostly regarding contract structuring, etc. The fact that it would be under Jim Overdorf endorses this opinion, so it's disheartening. This note regarding Whisenhunt shows how basic football analytics would likely not recommend him as a top candidate: Buffalo Rising ‏ @ BuffaloRising Since '07 (Whisenhunt's tenure), AZ has punted from inside the opponent's 40 yard line 36 times. The Bills have done it 27 times Retweeted by Jeremy White Additionally, Nix said in the PC that "percentages" show proven HCs with NFL experience make better candidates whereas 8 of the 12 HCs in the postseason this year did not match that criteria when hired.

Joe Flacco is the only name that jumps out, although I doubt he makes it to free agency--- not to mention, he has a number of drawbacks.

Howard Simon has broken a number of bits of info from his "sources" over the past few days--- Whisenhunt as a major candidate also traces to Simon, but I'm not sure that he's the frontrunner.

Arizona DC Ray Horton should be an option. The Bills are interviewing him tomorrow.

That's interesting--- although I wouldn't hate Mike Tice as OC with Lovie. There's an O-line in place in Buffalo which they didn't have in Chicago.

Having the right analysts in place will be crucial to this system having positive results--- and of course, as you say, how effective are the current methods of analysis at projecting football success? The Patriots and 49ers may be the model, but what are they doing exactly? Very interesting potential here.

The dropoff in Darren McFadden's production from 2011 to 2012 had as much to do with the coaching/scheme change as anything else after Hue Jackson was replaced by Dennis Allen. His scheme might be a good fit for our offensive personnel, although we'd certainly need another deep threat at WR. This isn't an endorsement of Hue Jackson per se, but he is a talented offensive coach.

That is probably where it should fall, as it is statistical analysis--- although this may be an area where fresh young minds from outside of the organization should be brought in. Great take, and a total sea change from where the organization was viewed the last time. It seems like candidates are lining up.

I agree. I hate to see a thread derailed by attack dogs that disagree. This has--- if nothing else--- put the Bills on the front page of every sports news organization's website and given them prime airtime at the most crucial part of the HC hiring season. They just need to make the right pick.

The Raiders should have retained Hue Jackson, but having said that, I hope the Bills only interest is to "leave no stone unturned".

OK.

Moneyball is not necessarily the strategy of a money strapped team, though. The Boston Red Sox hired Bill James (arguably the father of sabremetrics) when they couldn't lure away Billy Beane in 2002--- it was "moneyball" that directly lead to the Red Sox 1st World Series title in 86 years. Oakland was essentially priced out of competition for a few years because the big spending teams started utilizing the same philosophy and targeting the same previously undervalued players--- but they were now getting paid. In other words, I don't think this is a sign the Bills don't want to spend money, but it is a sign they'd like to be an organization on the cutting edge of football evaluation.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens. Sadly, I feel Ralph made a point to travel to WNY for the holiday party as a part of this transition.

This is a little paranoid, I guess. I think this was an organizational process Ralph wanted to start when he named Donahoe President in 2001, but that situation was such a disaster he insulated himself with the inner circle and we've been stuck spinning our wheels ever since. SDS is spot on below:

Russ Brandon has final say--- on everything. Wilson has ceded total control to Russ Brandon. Ralph is still the owner, but he is completely out of the decision making process. That is the point of the press conference.