ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 We did stop them yesterday, but I blame Carolinas play call. Any run outside the tackles was a huge gain in waiting, yet they targeted the A gap which hadd half a ton of human in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 We did stop them yesterday, but I blame Carolinas play call. Any run outside the tackles was a huge gain in waiting, yet they targeted the A gap which hadd half a ton of human in it. I just noticed on the highlights that they converted one in the 4th quarter. I had forgotten about that. It looks as if the law of averages has already started to kick in. We will probably give up a bunch between now and the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't understand why teams don't consistently run naked bootlegs on those 4th and shorts; they always seem to work because we gamble big time on runs up the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I just noticed on the highlights that they converted one in the 4th quarter. I had forgotten about that. It looks as if the law of averages has already started to kick in. We will probably give up a bunch between now and the end of the year. It was only because we played an NFC team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't understand why teams don't consistently run naked bootlegs on those 4th and shorts; they always seem to work because we gamble big time on runs up the middle. Carolina probably just figured that we had stopped so many so far that just about any play would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I just noticed on the highlights that they converted one in the 4th quarter. I had forgotten about that. It looks as if the law of averages has already started to kick in. We will probably give up a bunch between now and the end of the year. I think other teams will pick up on this and go for it every time on 4th down. The good news is win can get rid of our punt returners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 I think other teams will pick up on this and go for it every time on 4th down. The good news is win can get rid of our punt returners. That is exactly what I'm worried about. Carolina went for it on 4th and 4 yesterday for example. 4 yards is a lot and teams punt almost all of the time with 4 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Carolina probably just figured that we had stopped so many so far that just about any play would work. But now that we let that one slip, the counter goes back to zero. That's how statistics work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. You forgot one team that the Bills can't stop on 4th down. It's been 4 years or more since the Bills defeated that team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 You forgot one team that the Bills can't stop on 4th down. It's been 4 years or more since the Bills defeated that team. Not a problem - we just need to let the Chiefs convert a fourth down, and the counter goes right back to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Not a problem - we just need to let the Chiefs convert a fourth down, and the counter goes right back to zero. close, it's the team after the Chiefs I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor. We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it. Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory. If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively. Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory. If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively. Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short. Are you crazy or something? The numbers don't lie. I'm with Crayonz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 You forgot one team that the Bills can't stop on 4th down. It's been 4 years or more since the Bills defeated that team. Um, we stopped them 1 or 2 times this season on 4th down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Are you crazy or something? The numbers don't lie. I'm with Crayonz. No actually I'm not crazy. The OP's argument was logic based, and it's flawed. I'm just pointing out the flaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Um, we stopped them 1 or 2 times this season on 4th down... Yah but that's just going to screw us down the road because we can only do that so many times until they are all used up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory. If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively. Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short. So you're saying if I flip a coin 100 times it might come up heads every time? The law of averages says it should be around 50/50. Sure it might be 51/49 due to the wieght factor on 1 side of the coin versus the other, but over a full session of coin flipping it will even out. Similarly, over a full football season, the 4th down conversions will even out. Not to get all high and mighty, but this is called regressing to the mean. I know that is technical talk but what it means is that the Bills will probably not stop too many more 4th downs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odon59 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Yah but that's just going to screw us down the road because we can only do that so many times until they are all used up. Wow clearly you don't understand anything I wrote. Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delete This Account Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 this from a person who questioned Byrd's commitment for refusing to break NFL rules and attend spring minicamps. what say you now after 5 interceptions in seven games oh sage one? jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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