The Leading Stimulus Plan Success Indicator

[Chef Jim]

Keep an eye on China.

[IDBillzFan]

Wow. I had no idea China had a marsh mouse problem. I stand corrected on my criticisms of the US stimulus plan. If it's working in China, it surely will start working here any minute now.

 

Let's hear it for the marsh mouse!!!

[Chef Jim]

Wow. I had no idea China had a marsh mouse problem. I stand corrected on my criticisms of the US stimulus plan. If it's working in China, it surely will start working here any minute now.

 

Let's hear it for the marsh mouse!!!

 

But the main concern is the sustainability of the whole thing. The government can't keep pumping money in the economy. At some point it has to cease and then what? Another kablooie and it may very well be bigger than the one they were trying to fix.

[Kelly the Dog]

But the main concern is the sustainability of the whole thing. The government can't keep pumping money in the economy. At some point it has to cease and then what? Another kablooie and it may very well be bigger than the one they were trying to fix.

Gee, a massive stimulus plan that is working, who would have ever thunkit?

[bills_fan]

Keep an eye on China.

 

 

Really? I'm not so sure I buy it. From what I have read, China is basically going on a domestic, debt-fueled spending spree. Of course, as the US consumer well-knows, debt will eventually have to be paid back....with interest. I don't think China is using that debt to generate products/services that will eventually contribute more to China's GDP, rather they are speculating on stock, at the casino etc.

 

This article paints a pretty decent picture of what is happening in China from the ground level.

 

You could be right in that the Chinese stimulus is working, but I have my doubts in its sustainability and the debt hangover they will experience will be rough.

[IDBillzFan]

Gee, a massive stimulus plan that is working, who would have ever thunkit?

According to the WSJ, virtually 90% of China's $586 BILLION stimulus went to construction of railways, highways, airports, power grids and post-disaster reconstruction. NINETY PERCENT.

 

Yeah, the plan in China is exactly like the US plan. I can't wait until the marsh mice are happy and the grape genetics reports start getting released. We probably saved or created six jobs right there.

[Kelly the Dog]

Really? I'm not so sure I buy it. From what I have read, China is basically going on a domestic, debt-fueled spending spree. Of course, as the US consumer well-knows, debt will eventually have to be paid back....with interest. I don't think China is using that debt to generate products/services that will eventually contribute more to China's GDP, rather they are speculating on stock, at the casino etc.

 

This article paints a pretty decent picture of what is happening in China from the ground level.

 

You could be right in that the Chinese stimulus is working, but I have my doubts in its sustainability and the debt hangover they will experience will be rough.

I guess it's anyone's guess. The whole world is nuts. The Chinese stimulus package, although not exactly like ours, was similar in size with respect to its economy, covered social welfare programs, infrastructure, energy projects, eased credit restrictions, and covered housing and health care, for both short and long term gains.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...10900701_2.html

[Kelly the Dog]

According to the WSJ, virtually 90% of China's $586 BILLION stimulus went to construction of railways, highways, airports, power grids and post-disaster reconstruction. NINETY PERCENT.

 

Yeah, the plan in China is exactly like the US plan. I can't wait until the marsh mice are happy and the grape genetics reports start getting released. We probably saved or created six jobs right there.

 

See above. I don't think that's accurate at all from the link I provided about the specifics of the plan. It was wide ranging and included all kinds of stuff in there.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...10900701_2.html

[finknottle]

Gee, a massive stimulus plan that is working, who would have ever thunkit?

 

Maybe those who thought that while a stimulus might be ok, what we were sold wasn't it.

 

Here is a pie-chart comparison of what the two plans are spending their money on:

http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/...kage-pie-chart/

 

Note that much of the China spending was planned anyway, and their deficit-to-GNP ratio is significantly smaller than ours. Adequate private capital (and the business friendly environment) makes China fertile ground for a private sector-driven recovery.

[IDBillzFan]

See above. I don't think that's accurate at all from the link I provided about the specifics of the plan. It was wide ranging and included all kinds of stuff in there.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...10900701_2.html

 

China story from WSJ.

 

Mr. Zhang said 1.8 trillion yuan, or 45% of the stimulus package, will go toward the construction of railways, highways, airports and power grids. He said another one trillion yuan would be used for post-disaster reconstruction, which includes rebuilding after the snowstorms and the Sichuan earthquake that hit earlier this year.

 

Nearly 10% of the stimulus, or 370 billion yuan, has been earmarked for rural development and infrastructure projects, and environment and housing security will account for roughly 7% to 8% each, Mr. Zhang said. The remainder of the sum will include spending on health, culture, education and innovation.

 

If accurate, China's plan is absolutely, positively NOTHING like our bill.

[Alaska Darin]

I guess it's anyone's guess. The whole world is nuts. The Chinese stimulus package, although not exactly like ours, was similar in size with respect to its economy, covered social welfare programs, infrastructure, energy projects, eased credit restrictions, and covered housing and health care, for both short and long term gains.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...10900701_2.html

I've always hoped that one day the US would be just like China.

[Kelly the Dog]

China story from WSJ.

 

 

 

If accurate, China's plan is absolutely, positively NOTHING like our bill.

There is considerable more direct infrastructure spending in the China bill for a place that needs it a lot more. But 38% on their infrastructure is about 225 billion (ours is almost 200 billion). A lot of their other stimulus is building and social services and reconstruction which is paid out across two years through 2010 (ours is a little longer). If you look at the pie chart that finknottle provided, which is great, it shows all of the specific details of our stimulus bill but inside of those details and specifics are all kinds of quote unquote infrastructure.

 

And like I said over and over and so has the President and others, it wasn't only a stimulus bill, it was supposed to be stimulus and tax cuts and health care and help for states to stop the bleeding and unemployment insurance and education. But there is a still a significant amount of "stimulus".

 

There is:

30 bil in highway construction.

31 bil in federal and public buildings

32 bil in energy systems

16 bil in public housing fixes

41 bil in rebuilding schools

10 bil in transit and rail

6 bil in weatherizing homes for energy

19 bil in water projects

6 bil in modernizing grids for internet access

10 bil for science facilities

 

That's almost 200 billion. We also had 275 billion in tax cuts which is cash directly into the system. And 80 billion the states used to pay their cops and firefighters and teachers.

[Kelly the Dog]

I've always hoped that one day the US would be just like China.

 

[bills_fan]

Maybe those who thought that while a stimulus might be ok, what we were sold wasn't it.

 

Here is a pie-chart comparison of what the two plans are spending their money on:

http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/2009/...kage-pie-chart/

 

Note that much of the China spending was planned anyway, and their deficit-to-GNP ratio is significantly smaller than ours. Adequate private capital (and the business friendly environment) makes China fertile ground for a private sector-driven recovery.

 

 

Tough to really deficit spend when noone trusts your currency and you have to keep buying dollars to support your currency.

[Chef Jim]

Really? I'm not so sure I buy it. From what I have read, China is basically going on a domestic, debt-fueled spending spree. Of course, as the US consumer well-knows, debt will eventually have to be paid back....with interest. I don't think China is using that debt to generate products/services that will eventually contribute more to China's GDP, rather they are speculating on stock, at the casino etc.

 

This article paints a pretty decent picture of what is happening in China from the ground level.

 

You could be right in that the Chinese stimulus is working, but I have my doubts in its sustainability and the debt hangover they will experience will be rough.

 

That's exactly what I said. It's a temporary fix. When all of this infrastructure is complete, then what? These are temporary jobs.

[Chef Jim]

Gee, a massive stimulus plan that is working, who would have ever thunkit?

 

How long is it going to work is my concern.

[bills_fan]

That's exactly what I said. It's a temporary fix. When all of this infrastructure is complete, then what? These are temporary jobs.

 

 

I'm not seeing a ton of infrastructure. If there was, at least they would have something to show for the stimulus that could contribute to GDP in the future....better roads/transit leads to more efficiency as workers can get farther in a more time efficient manner etc. There is some infrastructure, sure, but not nearly what may be needed. I could get behind infrastructure spending that would lead to future efficiencies (e.g. Tennessee River Valley Authority). There is also a large amount of lending for crap. That will hurt.