bills_fan Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I really could not say anything better than this guy did... http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernan...n/index/a/19357 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Interesting, if a little inaccurate (it wasn't Harding's tarriffs that caused the world collapse...much of Europe was already restricting trade before Harding jumped on board). It was interesting to note the free trade aspects of 1930, though...and note that the EU started to break ranks this weekend, with individual countries starting to act to prop up their own economies without consideration to the Union. Overall, though...about halfway through I started wondering "Is this a hit piece by an Obama staffer? Looks a bit too pessimistic for his camp, but someone's grinding an axe..." Turns out, it was a Ron Paul supporter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molson_golden2002 Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 So true: The irony of our current economic system is this: If everyone lives within their means, the economy will collapse. Spending money we don't have is what's driven our country for the last 3 decades. But if banks won't lend, credit card companies won't offer credit, and auto makers stop financing cars, consumers will have no choice but to downsize. The government, by contrast, will continue (and likely accelerate) deficit spending. It was an interesting articles that I can't completely agree with in the whole. I think he leaves out one of the key factors of the Great Depression, the collaspe of consumer spending. In 1920 50% of Americans lived in the countryside and in the late 20's and through the 1930's rural America took a massive hit with the decline in agricultural prices. 50% of America couldn't buy much of anything. That's what started the spirialing depression. It was also a reason so many banks failed. The rural banks in the South and West failed becauise so many farmers couldn't pay their loans back and that virus in the banking industry spread east. Do we have that big of a hole in our economy today with regards to consumer spending? I don't think so, but with the quote above in mind, and the fact that so much of the taxes raised from the stock market are used to fund government work projects[infrastructure], we could be heading in that direction. States and cities are cutting back on spending. Consumers are holding back on spending. That will add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 States and cities are cutting back on spending. When it comes to that, don't forget that most big-ticket public items aren't paid for by cash; states and municipalities float municipal bonds against anticipated tax revenue. Which right now, because of the credit markets...they can't. CA asked for a Federal loan for a reason last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Rainbow's End is a good book that covers the events from the late 19th century and early 20th that led up to the crash and the subsequent depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 I think this one is better. Was going to write a response on my own, but why bother when someone else already has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Here's the thing. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to perform simple math calculations. Back in 2005 when my 1800 sq.ft. house was valued at over $600k I told my wife that we should sell, rent for a few years sitting on our profits and jump back in once the market declined. I made the case to her that the average house in San Diego was $560k and the average household income was $77k. Simple math that didn't come close to adding up, right? Well, being a woman, she fought the idea for emptional reasons and within two weeks of proposing the idea I received unaccompanied orders to Japan which put the kibosh on my proposal. Opportunity lost due to inaction. Now I'm not a smart man but I'm not an idiot either. And any idiot who was looking could've seen this coming. Let's now consider some figures offered in the article referenced in the thread. And for all you 'optimistic experts' out there, please enlighten me as to how you see us working our way out of this mess for an eventual satifactory if not happy ending. Consider this gem: "The country has a national debt of $9.6 trillion, annual deficits of $600 billion, unfunded future liabilities of $53 trillion, a trade deficit of $600 billion, inflation of 6%, 2 wars costing $12 billion per month, and a weak currency." Unfunded future liabilities of $53 TRILLION! That's Trillion with a 'T'! Wow! Anyone care to opine on how we get this small sum funded without complete Gov't collapse? That figure alone should scare the schit out of us. Now, we know our elected super hero's are looking out for us and I'm sure they have a plan in place for this right? Of course not...they just added another trillion to our debt. I know many here assailed Dwight Drane for his opinions. Maybe you disagree with his beliefs about why this is happening, but you cannot deny that he called his shots early on and was called out mercilessly as being a kook. Look, I know the world will continue to rotate and life will go on, but, will our country as we know it survive this? What happens once people lose faith in the Federal Gov't? Call me paranoid, but I think these are questions we all should consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Good post SD! Mind if I ask a personal question that I have been wondering for almost 10 years... How does one afford housing at those half million levels? My wife and I make a great salary both and I simply can't fathom anything over 200k with regards to a mortgage... I fought really hard with my wife not to move to a bigger house, that we would have lost our shirt on... I did win. Part of the reason I didn't budge and didn't lose much was becasue of what some like DD were saying. IMO, when somebody starts calling somebody a kook.. You listen up and weigh all the choices and measure the angles. How could anybody NOT have seen this coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 With the liberal enviromental agenda the last 70+ years... We are totally in a better position to handle things when things get rough. We have made light years in areas like land management since the 1930's. The all powerful can by far through drought and wind at us and we will be able to handle it than in the 1930's. You still can't rule out other forms of natural disaster that we haven't wisened up to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Good post SD! Mind if I ask a personal question that I have been wondering for almost 10 years... How does one afford housing at those half million levels? My wife and I make a great salary both and I simply can't fathom anything over 200k with regards to a mortgage... I fought really hard with my wife not to move to a bigger house, that we would have lost our shirt on... I did win. Part of the reason I didn't budge and didn't lose much was becasue of what some like DD were saying. IMO, when somebody starts calling somebody a kook.. You listen up and weigh all the choices and measure the angles. How could anybody NOT have seen this coming? Thats real simple Ex., because most Americans listen to and believe the MSM, this is the same country that thinks Walter Cronkite was an honest newsman. They also believe damn near anything Washington tells them JFK, RFK, MLK, 911, OKC. Of course they'd be the ones screaming CONSP.......oh never mind. Just remember it wasn't to long ago that CNBC was screaming this was a goldie locks economy and to party on. Now they're waiting for the people responsible for the crisis to save us from the crisis and that would be the FED, and congress. Don't forget that the US Military is now over seeing the largest Heroin harvest in world history! Gotta love it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 These guys over here are claiming the BELOVED FED is broke and was taken over by the US Treasurary. http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/2008/1...the-helicopter/ I have been reading in a number of places about the coming Bank Holiday, we'll have to wait and see. Hearing the Shrub on the radio last hour didn't give me much confidence, as a matter of fact he sounded rather disturbed, like he was about to cry. There is a major pissing match going on behind the scenes of the power brokers, the G7 gang will be in town this weekend to read the Shrub his rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Good post SD! Mind if I ask a personal question that I have been wondering for almost 10 years... How does one afford housing at those half million levels? My wife and I make a great salary both and I simply can't fathom anything over 200k with regards to a mortgage... I fought really hard with my wife not to move to a bigger house, that we would have lost our shirt on... I did win. Part of the reason I didn't budge and didn't lose much was becasue of what some like DD were saying. IMO, when somebody starts calling somebody a kook.. You listen up and weigh all the choices and measure the angles. How could anybody NOT have seen this coming? One doesn't afford a house at that price level. That is why we're in the mess we're in (partially) and was the point of my whole post. I bought my house in 2000 for $225k. Even with the down turn I've still got well over $100k plus in equity. But that is eroding fast and I'm not sure if I could even sell it today if I wanted to. But, I Re-Fi'ed awhile back and have a 4.775 fixed rate (15 yr.). Also, it doesn't hurt when Momma makes triple what I pulled in in the military. Ah, the good old days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted October 8, 2008 Author Share Posted October 8, 2008 These guys over here are claiming the BELOVED FED is broke and was taken over by the US Treasurary. http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/2008/1...the-helicopter/ I have been reading in a number of places about the coming Bank Holiday, we'll have to wait and see. Hearing the Shrub on the radio last hour didn't give me much confidence, as a matter of fact he sounded rather disturbed, like he was about to cry. There is a major pissing match going on behind the scenes of the power brokers, the G7 gang will be in town this weekend to read the Shrub his rights. East Brady...that was a very interesting article. Can you post some links to others discussing this...preferably sites that do not advocate the direct purchase of gold/silver? Of course, that will be the preferred route, but you can certainly see the inherent conflict of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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