DRAFT talk- What do you think the Bills are lying about

[Pyrite Gal]

Although there are a whole bunch of differences between their approaches to NFL team building and the draft decisions in particular there has been one similarity between the TD and the Marv regimes regarding the draft: They have pulled off completely fooling virtually all watchers about their intent.

 

The hallmark of the TD regime during his semi-lengthy (too lengthy for many) was the 1st round pick where he chose McGahee.

 

Even with the el foldo by WM in terms of productivity for the Bills last year, I think even TD haters should be willing to acknowledge this pick was a pretty ballsy move which in retrospect made sense to try even though it brought forth a big chunk of folks whining about the move not making any sense. However, the future Bills moves and the way things turned out revealed that first the Bills knew things that the rest of the world did not know or have faith in which made the move at least a sane one to make (specifically, the Bills docs were advising that the nature of WM's catastrophic injuries involved a series of clean tears that if he worked hard could repair his knees to the point he could start in the NFL, he likely needed a year off for rehab and there were no guarantees he would be a top 5 NFL RB but it was possible he could be a starter given a year of rehab. The Bills docs were right and the Bills surprised everyone as to their draft intent by taking WM with #23).

 

Likewise, the Marv led Bills fooled everyone last year. It appears only 1 of the many draft pundits had the Bills taking Whitner at #8 and a wail and cry arose from several pundits about the Bills draft being one of the most senseless ever and accusations of senility and Alzheimers hitting Marv and Ralph were out there.

 

However, in retrospect, though it takes three years to draw any serious conclusions about a draft class, certainly after the 2006 draft take produced 7 of the 9 players selected got starts last year on a team which improved its record significantly from the 05 Bills, there is a credible argument that this draft may turn out to be one of the best that they ever pulled off.

 

Clearly, the Bills in both regimes succeeded in virtually completely fooling the pundits and draft watchers (including those of us on TSW- does anyone out there want to claim they had us picking both Whitner and McGahee with the #1s or even one of these two choices.

 

My question is what do you see the Bills likely fooling watchers this year in terms of who they might pick at #1 or in a general approach to the draft.

 

The main thing that seems clear is that if anyone makes a prediction and says you can take it to the bank, the prepare to be bankrupt.

[obie_wan]

Although there are a whole bunch of differences between their approaches to NFL team building and the draft decisions in particular there has been one similarity between the TD and the Marv regimes regarding the draft: They have pulled off completely fooling virtually all watchers about their intent.

 

The hallmark of the TD regime during his semi-lengthy (too lengthy for many) was the 1st round pick where he chose McGahee.

 

Even with the el foldo by WM in terms of productivity for the Bills last year, I think even TD haters should be willing to acknowledge this pick was a pretty ballsy move which in retrospect made sense to try even though it brought forth a big chunk of folks whining about the move not making any sense. However, the future Bills moves and the way things turned out revealed that first the Bills knew things that the rest of the world did not know or have faith in which made the move at least a sane one to make (specifically, the Bills docs were advising that the nature of WM's catastrophic injuries involved a series of clean tears that if he worked hard could repair his knees to the point he could start in the NFL, he likely needed a year off for rehab and there were no guarantees he would be a top 5 NFL RB but it was possible he could be a starter given a year of rehab. The Bills docs were right and the Bills surprised everyone as to their draft intent by taking WM with #23).

 

Likewise, the Marv led Bills fooled everyone last year. It appears only 1 of the many draft pundits had the Bills taking Whitner at #8 and a wail and cry arose from several pundits about the Bills draft being one of the most senseless ever and accusations of senility and Alzheimers hitting Marv and Ralph were out there.

 

However, in retrospect, though it takes three years to draw any serious conclusions about a draft class, certainly after the 2006 draft take produced 7 of the 9 players selected got starts last year on a team which improved its record significantly from the 05 Bills, there is a credible argument that this draft may turn out to be one of the best that they ever pulled off.

 

Clearly, the Bills in both regimes succeeded in virtually completely fooling the pundits and draft watchers (including those of us on TSW- does anyone out there want to claim they had us picking both Whitner and McGahee with the #1s or even one of these two choices.

 

My question is what do you see the Bills likely fooling watchers this year in terms of who they might pick at #1 or in a general approach to the draft.

 

The main thing that seems clear is that if anyone makes a prediction and says you can take it to the bank, the prepare to be bankrupt.

 

Two biggest lies

1. they are happy moving Crowell to the middle. This defense demands Superman in the middle. They dearly hope that Willis gets past SF, but will take their chances with Crowell as the fall back plan.

 

2. they are happy with a RBBC --they would much prefer to have a dominant back but will live with a committee of backs if they have to

 

It the draft goes as this PFT mock, then it will be Lynch unless they are able to convince GB to trade up for him.http://www.profootballtalk.com/2007mockdraft3.0.htm

[Mark Long Beach]

Two biggest lies

1. they are happy moving Crowell to the middle. This defense demands Superman in the middle. They dearly hope that Willis gets past SF, but will take their chances with Crowell as the fall back plan.

 

2. they are happy with a RBBC --they would much prefer to have a dominant back but will live with a committee of backs if they have to

 

It the draft goes as this PFT mock, then it will be Lynch unless they are able to convince GB to trade up for him.http://www.profootballtalk.com/2007mockdraft3.0.htm

 

I agree. Although I really believe #2 more than #1. They are willing to stomach an RBBC because they know who we have will work hard and give it their all, even if they aren't the most talented. Clearly neither Marv nor DJ thought the same about McWillis. I think they are very pleased with ellison, and feel that Crowell is adequate at MLB. Here I think they could tolerate going into the season with what they have, but would prefer an upgrade...(or at least another good future starter as a backup)

 

I wouldn't be suprised if we moved up to the top of the 2nd or back into the bottom of 1st round again.

[Sketch Soland]

I believe we will see a surprise pick at LB in the 1st round, whether we stay at 12 or move somewhere else in the round. This is my hunch. I just don't see us going into this upcoming season without a young stud LB in the mix. Now who we pick, I have no idea, but it will not be someone expected to go at the spot or someone that is widely prognosticated to go at the spot that we pick him.

[Special K]

Two biggest lies

1. they are happy moving Crowell to the middle. This defense demands Superman in the middle. They dearly hope that Willis gets past SF, but will take their chances with Crowell as the fall back plan.

 

2. they are happy with a RBBC --they would much prefer to have a dominant back but will live with a committee of backs if they have to

 

 

You beat me to it...that's exactly what I think.

[Bills_Chick]

also keep in mind that the national sports writers usually don't pay much attention to the bills and have no idea what is going on with the team.

 

my surprise "Marv" pick is that WR Meachum (sp?) or OT Levin Brown (yes, I know we just signed 3 OL)

[BuckeyeBill]

OT Levin Brown (yes, I know we just signed 3 OL)

 

Dang... that one would sure suprise me.

[Lurker]

Two biggest lies

1. they are happy moving Crowell to the middle. This defense demands Superman in the middle. They dearly hope that Willis gets past SF, but will take their chances with Crowell as the fall back plan.

 

2. they are happy with a RBBC --they would much prefer to have a dominant back but will live with a committee of backs if they have to

 

It the draft goes as this PFT mock, then it will be Lynch unless they are able to convince GB to trade up for him.http://www.profootballtalk.com/2007mockdraft3.0.htm

 

Agree with both choices...although ranking them in importance, #1 is critical while #2 is nice to have--quality RBs can be had in rounds 2-3, IMO.

 

That said, at the 12 spot, I sure hope Marv can lay off of PSU LBs who remind him of a former player he admired greatly.

[BillsVet]

When are some people going to admit we played rookies last season out of sheer desperation and lack of depth? It didn't happen because these guys were the best option, in most instances they were the only option. Ellison, Simpson, Pennington, and to a lesser degree Whitner played because there were no other options. K. Williams played because McCargo was hurt and wasn't effective when he was in there. And it showed on defense when we were easy to run on and offense where we rarely ran much at all behind the right side of the line.

 

The team's depth both last season and most likely this seaon is very weak, even glaring in some spots. I think it's a lie that they feel comfortable putting some of the players on the field they'll end up having to. This Youboty/K. Thomas thing is a little scary. Hoping Ellison is good enough to play WLB is almost as bad. DT, regardless of the 1st round pick last season still doesn't phase most O-Coordinators.

 

During draft weekend Buffalo will try to cull 2-3 starters or regular contributors out of their picks. That's not comforting. Rookies can only be counted on for so much. Most likely, one of those will be a LB, and the others are unknown.

 

Biggest lie? That they're comfortable at all with some of their 2006 draft choices as starters in 07. And that somehow they'll have enough depth, especially on defense, to be a playoff team. Not a contender at 6-7 in Week 15, but a definite playoff team.

[Git'er Done]

EVERY team team in the NFL has weak spots, all are doing their best to cover for those players.

 

No matter who or what the BIlls draft, they will have a glaring weakness. That's why I hope they choose the best guy available at one of their need "areas". If a particular linebacker stands out as head and shoulders better than a particular RB or a D-lineman, I hope they take him, or vice-versa. I would hope most Bills fans would think this way instead of zeroing in on one particular need.

[Stussy109]

CB Rd1 to match up with the pats...Leeeeeeon

[BillsVet]

EVERY team team in the NFL has weak spots, all are doing their best to cover for those players.

 

No matter who or what the BIlls draft, they will have a glaring weakness. That's why I hope they choose the best guy available at one of their need "areas". If a particular linebacker stands out as head and shoulders better than a particular RB or a D-lineman, I hope they take him, or vice-versa. I would hope most Bills fans would think this way instead of zeroing in on one particular need.

 

Sure, every team has weaknesses. And it's up to the other team to exploit them during the game. But it's a widely held belief that depth at RB, CB, LB, and DT is thin at best. With the salary cap comes limitations. We all know the Bills can't have the caliber of teams they had in the early nineties when you could have players backing the starters up who could play relatively well.

 

Some people have said they're fine with the team, particularly how Marv and DJ (emphasis on DJ's opinion given to Marv) draft. Still, I think the biggest lie is that they'll feel comfortable taking another year's worth of rookies and plugging them into play and feeling confident about it. I just don't believe it. Marv didn't like playing rooks back when he coached, and I don't believe he does now. Last season they played rookies because they had little else to work with. That's continued this season with the departures (NC and LFB I completely understand) in FA. But if every season we're forced to play rookies, how far can this team go? Not all draft picks succeed and sometimes they're high picks. Marv does not have the Midas touch, no matter what anyone on this board says. And neither does DJ.

[Lurker]

Some people have said they're fine with the team, particularly how Marv and DJ (emphasis on DJ's opinion given to Marv) draft.

Funny, that 'some' seems like a pretty small group to me. But don't let that dissuade you from playing Devil's Advocate.

[Git'er Done]

Sure, every team has weaknesses. And it's up to the other team to exploit them during the game. But it's a widely held belief that depth at RB, CB, LB, and DT is thin at best. With the salary cap comes limitations. We all know the Bills can't have the caliber of teams they had in the early nineties when you could have players backing the starters up who could play relatively well.

 

Some people have said they're fine with the team, particularly how Marv and DJ (emphasis on DJ's opinion given to Marv) draft. Still, I think the biggest lie is that they'll feel comfortable taking another year's worth of rookies and plugging them into play and feeling confident about it. I just don't believe it. Marv didn't like playing rooks back when he coached, and I don't believe he does now. Last season they played rookies because they had little else to work with. That's continued this season with the departures (NC and LFB I completely understand) in FA. But if every season we're forced to play rookies, how far can this team go? Not all draft picks succeed and sometimes they're high picks. Marv does not have the Midas touch, no matter what anyone on this board says. And neither does DJ.

 

EVERY team is forced to play rookies. The quality of play across the league has dipped because of free agency.

 

I can't recall Marv talking Super Bowl at all. He hasn't "lied" and claimed "were going for the big one right now", instead they say we're "trying to win now".

They are BUILDING the team. That's the point. Thats why you don't just try to fix your "biggest" weakness. Instead you try to get the best player available in your need areas, not a specific position.

[BillsVet]

Where did I talk about Super Bowl there? I do think it's reasonable to ask for a playoff appearance at some point. It's true free agency has thinned the talent of the league, not to mention the addition of 4 teams since the 1995 season. That's 4 team's worth of players which 20 years ago would have been spread across the 28 teams before expansion. So yeah, the product is obviously cheapened.

 

I completely understand NC and LFB going in free agency. But did we acquire someone with a combination of experience and talent that can step into the position? We really didn't...Crowell we hope can play MLB and either K.Thomas/Youboty are supposed to be the solution at one CB position. We're calling on Ellison to play WLB after only a few NFL starts. And let's not even go RB now.

 

The point is, guys let go for extremely legitimate reasons. But who replaces them? Sure you can find options within the team, but not all the time. And I don't think it's right to splurge in Free Agency every season. You build through the draft, but those picks aren't always going to be big time contributors their rookie seasons.

 

I'm not one to select best player available just because you've got so many areas to make better. That's not a good thing no matter how you slice it. RB, CB, LB, DT, take your pick. All need improvements.

 

And as for the "some" who critique the moves the team has made, we all can make our own opinions. I don't care what one lone voice in the forest says about Buffalo. Guys like Peter Kind slobber over the Pats all off-season, but there's nothing that says what you have on paper wins games. But it's apparent to me we're relying too much on rookies to make our team better.

[Dibs]

When are some people going to admit we played rookies last season out of sheer desperation and lack of depth? It didn't happen because these guys were the best option, in most instances they were the only option. Ellison, Simpson, Pennington, and to a lesser degree Whitner played because there were no other options. K. Williams played because McCargo was hurt and wasn't effective when he was in there. And it showed on defense when we were easy to run on and offense where we rarely ran much at all behind the right side of the line........

 

K.Williams & McCargo don't play the same position. Williams played because he beat Anderson for the starting spot. Sure it's only Anderson but he(Williams) certainly showed promise since he was a rookie etc. He held his own & gives legitimate reason for hope in his future progression. Remembering that rookies tend not to start or 'get it' in their first(2nd) years as pros, it is also encouraging that McCargo was showing improvement just before his injury.

 

I understand your point......and a good point it is......but you have done the opposite to your initial argument. You have generalized the other way. You name every rookie starter.....even Whitner.....as starting out of sheer desperation. From all accounts, Whitner & Simpson held their own admirably......Simpson impressing enough to have the cutting of Vincent an easy decision.....and Whitner ending up 6th highest number of tackles for a DB in the NFL.

 

IMO, I'd say you are absolutely correct in regards to Pennington & maybe Ellison.......but you are incorrect in regards to Whitner, Simpson & for the most part Williams. Due to his play, Williams would have gotten plenty of rotation time even if the guy in front of him was a top starter.

 

***I'm assuming your point is that these rookies were not as good as your standard starter. If you are meaning not as good as 'good' or 'probowl' starter the point is relatively meaningless.***

[BillsVet]

K.Williams & McCargo don't play the same position. Williams played because he beat Anderson for the starting spot. Sure it's only Anderson but he certainly showed promise since he was a rookie etc. He held his own & gives legitimate reason for hope in his future progression. Remembering that rookies tend not to start or 'get it' in their first(2nd) years as pros, it is also encouraging that McCargo was showing improvement just before his injury.

 

I understand your point......and a good point it is......but you have done the opposite to your initial argument. You have generalized the other way. You name every rookie starter.....even Whitner.....as starting out of sheer desperation. From all accounts, Whitner & Simpson held their own admirably......Simpson impressing enough to have the cutting of Vincent an easy decision.....and Whitner ending up 6th highest number of tackles for a DB in the NFL.

 

IMO, I'd say you are absolutely correct in regards to Pennington & maybe Ellison.......but you are incorrect in regards to Whitner, Simpson & for the most part Williams. Due to his play, Williams would have gotten plenty of rotation time even if the guy in front of him was a top starter.

 

***I'm assuming your point is that these rookies were not as good as your standard starter. If you are meaning not as good as 'good' or 'probowl' starter the point is relatively meaningless.***

 

 

Here goes in no order:

 

I like the phrase, "holding your own." But it leaves too much open to question. Call me negative, but I just like to have a reason for an opinion. I sure as heck hope that the players Buffalo is confident in will work out this season. Kyle Williams ended up teaming with Tripplett as the 1 and 3 tech respectively, but I can't believe for a second that McCargo and Tripplett won't be teamed together at some point either. I think Buffalo will adapt their scheme a little more to the players they have and their talents. Holding your own last season got us a defense porous against the run. Actually, I don't think that's holding your own. Not trying to be a smart aleck, but that's my take.

 

***I know most people say you can't grade a draft or a player until they've been in the league 3 years. But we shouldn't say they're good OR they're bad after one season. I'm fine with them holding their own, but at some point they've got to produce. And here's to hoping they can. If we're using our drafted players so much, using this mantra becomes less relevant. With so many rookies playing, so go the Bills. And that's when you can say something about rookies and their play.***

 

One thing about tackles, a stat cited in excess on this board. I don't think they tell the true nature of a player. It's a purely subjective assessment of a player's abilities. Lots of tackles doesn't always mean good things...especially from safeties. We talk about Fletcher's tackles downfield. Well, where were Whitner and Simpson making theirs? I'm willing to bet they weren't within the first three yards of the LOS or in the backfield. They were downfield, sometimes way downfield.

 

And I'm never going to need a rookie to be a Pro Bowler. That's just insane, unless you've got that rare talent who can adapt to the NFL and use their physical tools. Marcus McNeill was one heckuva a LT last year for SD. He's the exception. But I would expect that down the road we're going to have a Pro Bowler or 2 in the next three years from the 2006 draft class. It's not the end of the day if we don't, but with all the talk Whitner gets, I hope he becomes one.

 

The question is, where are we going to get improvement to take this team from where it was last season to being a playoff team this season? If you're not trying to get into the playoffs every year, you're not trying.

[Git'er Done]

Where did I talk about Super Bowl there? I do think it's reasonable to ask for a playoff appearance at some point. It's true free agency has thinned the talent of the league, not to mention the addition of 4 teams since the 1995 season. That's 4 team's worth of players which 20 years ago would have been spread across the 28 teams before expansion. So yeah, the product is obviously cheapened.

 

I completely understand NC and LFB going in free agency. But did we acquire someone with a combination of experience and talent that can step into the position? We really didn't...Crowell we hope can play MLB and either K.Thomas/Youboty are supposed to be the solution at one CB position. We're calling on Ellison to play WLB after only a few NFL starts. And let's not even go RB now.

 

The point is, guys let go for extremely legitimate reasons. But who replaces them? Sure you can find options within the team, but not all the time. And I don't think it's right to splurge in Free Agency every season. You build through the draft, but those picks aren't always going to be big time contributors their rookie seasons.

 

I'm not one to select best player available just because you've got so many areas to make better. That's not a good thing no matter how you slice it. RB, CB, LB, DT, take your pick. All need improvements.

 

And as for the "some" who critique the moves the team has made, we all can make our own opinions. I don't care what one lone voice in the forest says about Buffalo. Guys like Peter Kind slobber over the Pats all off-season, but there's nothing that says what you have on paper wins games. But it's apparent to me we're relying too much on rookies to make our team better.

 

My point is that when the Bills are ready to make a real run for the Super Bowl, these guys won't be rookies. Because they are still BUILDING the team, they can pick the best player available in any one of their need areas. Will it EVER happen? The odds are against it (31 other teams working on the same problems), but the Bills have to time their acquisitions properly. To fix the mess of the previous regime could take some time, but I expect the playoffs this season.

 

This is Marv's 2nd draft, give the guy 3 drafts at least.

[Git'er Done]

Here goes in no order:

 

I like the phrase, "holding your own." But it leaves too much open to question. Call me negative, but I just like to have a reason for an opinion. I sure as heck hope that the players Buffalo is confident in will work out this season. Kyle Williams ended up teaming with Tripplett as the 1 and 3 tech respectively, but I can't believe for a second that McCargo and Tripplett won't be teamed together at some point either. I think Buffalo will adapt their scheme a little more to the players they have and their talents. Holding your own last season got us a defense porous against the run. Actually, I don't think that's holding your own. Not trying to be a smart aleck, but that's my take.

 

***I know most people say you can't grade a draft or a player until they've been in the league 3 years. But we shouldn't say they're good OR they're bad after one season. I'm fine with them holding their own, but at some point they've got to produce. And here's to hoping they can. If we're using our drafted players so much, using this mantra becomes less relevant. With so many rookies playing, so go the Bills. And that's when you can say something about rookies and their play.***

 

One thing about tackles, a stat cited in excess on this board. I don't think they tell the true nature of a player. It's a purely subjective assessment of a player's abilities. Lots of tackles doesn't always mean good things...especially from safeties. We talk about Fletcher's tackles downfield. Well, where were Whitner and Simpson making theirs? I'm willing to bet they weren't within the first three yards of the LOS or in the backfield. They were downfield, sometimes way downfield.

 

And I'm never going to need a rookie to be a Pro Bowler. That's just insane, unless you've got that rare talent who can adapt to the NFL and use their physical tools. Marcus McNeill was one heckuva a LT last year for SD. He's the exception. But I would expect that down the road we're going to have a Pro Bowler or 2 in the next three years from the 2006 draft class. It's not the end of the day if we don't, but with all the talk Whitner gets, I hope he becomes one.

 

The question is, where are we going to get improvement to take this team from where it was last season to being a playoff team this season? If you're not trying to get into the playoffs every year, you're not trying.

 

Name the team you think will win the Super Bowl this season

[Dibs]

I like the phrase, "holding your own." But it leaves too much open to question........

I tend to think 'holding your own' means(& what I meant when I said it) that the player is not a liability. Most starters in most positions around the league 'hold their own'. They are not stars(or good).....nor are they liabilities. Most rookies cannot 'hold their own'.

Pennington couldn't.

However........

Whitner, Simpson, Williams could......meaning that for the most of it, they were not liabilities......meaning(back to your original concept) they were not playing simply "out of sheer desperation and lack of depth", those guys were playing because they could get the job done without being liabilities to the team.

Again, I agree that people saying "Oooh, Pennington started & was a 7th round pick.....he's ACE....Marv's marvelous!" is thoughtless since he did start "out of sheer desperation and lack of depth".....but for you to lump all the other rookies in with him is equally wrong.