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Dolphins are welcomed sight for Bills

 

Why to watch

Miami's offense comes into this game with more questions than answers, as injuries have decimated the backfield, the quarterback play has been inconsistent at best and the offensive line continues to struggle. There seems to be little reason to think the Dolphins will snap out of their slide working against a strong Buffalo defense, but the Bills' offense has found ways to lose games as well.

 

It continues to waste an abundance of talent with penalties, breakdowns in blocking schemes and players simply failing to execute. Will Miami's defense give the Dolphins another opportunity to steal a win late or will the Buffalo offense finally start realizing its awesome potential?

 

When the Dolphins have the ball

Rushing:

Buffalo DTs Sam Adams and Pat Williams have the bulk to control the middle of the line and they should help keep blockers off of MLB London Fletcher. Fletcher is fast enough to make plays from sideline-to-sideline and he is a reliable open field tackler who won't allow the Dolphin backs to pick up much yardage after contact. In addition, WLB Takeo Spikes has the explosive burst to make some plays in the backfield working against a Miami offensive line that has yet to jel.

 

Of course, it doesn't help that the Dolphins lost Lamar Gordon to a season-ending shoulder injury and Travis Minor has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. Their absence has left Leonard Henry and Brock Forsey to shoulder most of the load and neither should be a starter at this point. However, the Dolphins shouldn't abandon the run even if they continue to struggle. If Miami becomes a one-dimensional passing attack, the Bills defensive line will start flying upfield and it should have some success getting to the quarterback.

 

Staying committed to the run will help set up play-action and keep the Buffalo front four honest. Dolphins offensive coordinator Chris Foerster will try to help neutralize the Bills' rangy linebacker corps by putting receivers and tight ends in motion. The motion will create better blocking angles making it easier for the blocker to reach his target at the second level.

 

Passing:

Jay Fiedler could miss this game with a rib injury and backup A.J. Feeley could also be unavailable after sustaining a concussion last week. Sage Rosenfels is expected to make his first-career start if neither is available. Rosenfels has a powerful arm and runs adequately well, but he is raw and will make some mistakes under pressure. As a result, expect Miami to scale back its playbook and simplify the quarterback's reads if it's forced to insert Rosenfels into the starting lineup.

 

The injuries are a clear indication that pass protection needs to improve and it won't matter who's under center until its gets better. Buffalo defensive coordinator Jerry Gray will try to keep a Dolphins offensive line that has struggled mightily off balance by blitzing regularly. While Miami will counter by running some max-protect schemes that keep a back or tight to help out, the scheme will be of little use unless the players execute properly. If the Dolphins' pass protection doesn't eliminate the costly mistakes that have plagued it thus far, the quarterbacks will continue to take some big hits.

 

Another area that Miami needs to improve is red-zone offense, and it will have an excellent opportunity to do so because of the knee injury to Bills CB Troy Vincent. CB Terrence McGee is starting in place of Vincent and he lacks ideal size. The Dolphins can take advantage by throwing some fade routes to the receiver working against McGee when they get close to the end zone

 

When the Bills have the ball

Rushing:

Don't be fooled by Miami giving up an average of 134.8 rushing yards per game. That statistic is somewhat distorted because teams are jumping out to early leads and then leaning on the running game to protect that lead. Teams are running the ball more against the Dolphins than most teams as a result. Miami's run defense is giving up just 3.9 yards a carry, ranking it in the top half of the league in that category, and it should have some success frustrating Buffalo's ground game early.

 

However, Miami's front seven lacks ideal depth and the offense's inability to sustain long drives frequently causes it to wear down in the second half. Bills offensive coordinator Tom Clements will try to take advantage by giving RB Travis Henry and backup Willis McGahee a combined 25-plus carries. The amount of touches McGahee gets in relief could depend on Henry's health, as he is battling a sore ankle. Henry is expected to play but McGahee could shoulder a big portion of the load if the injury hinders his play.

 

Buffalo should also look to run right at RDE Jason Taylor as much as possible. LOT Jonas Jennings weighs 65 pounds more than Taylor and should be able to drive him off the line, but he will struggle with Taylor's quickness and mobility, especially when the Bills drop backs to pass. Consistently running at Taylor will help neutralize his athletic ability and give Jennings a better chance of holding his own in the matchup.

 

Passing:

Dolphins CBs Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain are capable of staying with WR Lee Evans in man coverage when they play with sound technique. However, nickel back Reggie Howard will struggle. Expect Clements to move Evans around and line him up in the slot at times in an effort to isolate Evans working against Howard as a result. If QB Drew Bledsoe is able to find Evans in the vertical passing game, it will help open up the running game and the short-to-intermediate passing game by forcing Miami's safeties to play deeper.

 

It's also important to note that Madison and Surtain are at their best in press coverage and they need to get their hands into the receiver to be truly effective. Getting Evans involved downfield will make them a little more hesitant because they won't want to get beat over the top if they fail to slow Evans down at the line of scrimmage. Of course, it won't matter how open Evans is if Bledsoe doesn't have the time to get him the ball. Even though Dolphins' defensive coordinator Jim Bates isn't as aggressive as a lot of coordinators and he probably won't blitz much, don't be surprised to see Buffalo run some max-protect schemes. Bledsoe continues to hold onto the ball for too long and that shouldn't change with him working against a Miami defense that will frequently drop seven men into coverage.

 

Scouts' Edge

It will be yet another frustrating day for the Miami defense, as its efforts will once again be overshadowed by the suspect offense. The Dolphins simply have too many questions at running back and quarterback. Buffalo will take advantage by shutting the Miami running game down, making the Dolphins a one-dimensional passing attack.

 

Once this happens the Bills should have success getting to the quarterback, resulting in stalled drives and turnovers. Although the Dolphins' defense will make some big plays of their own working against Bledsoe, it won't be enough in the end. Buffalo's running game will wear down Miami's front seven over the course of the game, allowing the Bills to control the clock and protect the lead in the second half.

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Sounds pretty accurate.  Let me say this, this will be one of the most boring games in the history of the NFL.

67210[/snapback]

Ain't that the truth...

 

Bills 3, Fins 2

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