Analyzing the RB situation in the NFL

[JimBob2232]

Updated.....

 

Buffalo - Open

Miami - R. Williams/R. Brown

New England - Maroney

Jets - Thomas Jones

 

Colts - Addai

Tennessee - Open (White?)

Jacksonville - Jones Drew

Houston - A.Green

 

Steelers-Parker

Browns-Jamal Lewis

Cincinatti - Rudi Johnson

Baltimore - McGahee

 

San Diego - LT

Kansas City - LJ

Denver - Henry

Oakland - Lamont Jordan

 

Philly - Westbrook

Dallas - Jones/Barber III

Giants - Droughns/Jacobs

Redskins - Portis

 

Chicago - Benson

Green Bay - Open

Detroit - k. Jones/T. Bell

Minnesota - Taylor

 

NO - Bush/McCalister

Carolina - Foster/D. Williams

Atlanta - Dunn/Norwood

Tampa - Cadillac

 

Seattle - Alexander

San Fran - Gore

St. Louis - Jackson

Arizona - Edge

 

That means, teams that need a RB

1. Buffalo

2. Tennessee

3. Green Bay

 

So thats it. 3 teams. What RBs are available?

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Marshawn Lynch

3. Micheal Bush

4. Kenny Irons

5. Chris Brown

6. Corey Dillon

7. Correll Buckhalter

8. Ladell Betts - Under Conract (i think), with 'skins

9. Micheal Turner - Under contract w/San Diego

10. Kevin Barlow

11. Fred Taylor - Under Contract w/ Jax

12. Anthony Thomas

[Cornerville]

Good analysis, and based on this, why not just keep WM and then look for another RB next year...I doubt the market will run dry next year...so WM will have his big year, have another kid in WNY, get his $ from another team, we make the playoffs, and we replace WM with a comporable RB.

[bartshan-83]

Nice work, Jim! I like the assessment and it puts the situation into a good visual form which helps my ADD brain see it clearly. So thank you...

 

I agree with your outlook that it is a buyers market for RBs. This just furthers my belief that moving Willis is not in our best interest. If there is one thing I have learned about McGahee in his 4 years here, it's that when properly motivated, he can do great things. He came back from a horrific knee injury when he had a huge chip on his shoulder, and when challenged publicly in the past, he has responded well. Plus, the way he carves up Vilma and the Jets can't be completely coincidence. I believe he can turn it up a few notches when he wants to and when he does, he is a top 10 RB easily.

 

That being said, I'd love to ride him out this year and see where he takes us. I think worst case, he gets us another 1100-1200 yards and does his usual dancing and a couple of bone headed plays. Best case, this new OL opens up serious holes, JP and Evans force defenses to respect the pass and Willis plays his ass off for a new contract. That combination (or any of those factors coming to fruition) could be damn scary.

 

So, if it is scenario A...then we can either re-sign him for way cheaper than he thinks he is worth...or let him go because we don't want him. Scenario B we either think he is the real deal and open the bank, decide we can't afford him and tag him to try to get something out of him, or let him go with no compensation.

 

Worst case, it would seem that all we would be missing is a 3rd round draft pick for this year. I'd definitely say that the risk is way worth it and that a 3rd rounder is no where near the potential value we could reap from a healthy, well-blocked for, highly motivated Willis McGahee in 2007.

 

KEEP Willis and ride that horse hard.

[In space no one can hear]

Since San Diego is going to lose Turner after next year anyways with no compensation-

 

it wouldn't be a bad idea to trade McGahee for Turner.

 

San Diego could have insurance for LT for a year- we could have our feature back.

 

*Insert get 'er done Marv here*

[BillsVet]

I know Turner is not as proven a starter, but he'd be a great fit in Buffalo. 5'10" 235 with great burst and power. Still, I think it's a pipe dream that we acquire him. I know Willis isn't the front office's chosen one, but RB's are more plentiful, whether in the draft or Free Agency. I still don't think SD gives us Turner for McGahee. It's makes little sense to have McGahee paired with LT. It's to pursue a RB at this point. I just think the braintrust looks to the defensive side of the ball and makes McGahee earn his rep this season.

[Tcali]

Good analysis, and based on this, why not just keep WM and then look for another RB next year...I doubt the market will run dry next year...so WM will have his big year, have another kid in WNY, get his $ from another team, we make the playoffs, and we replace WM with a comporable RB.

Completely agree.

[ROCCEO]

First of all, Cadillac is not available. They drafted him 2 years ago and last year was just a disaster for the Bucs, I think they're just gonna look ahead from this point . Gruden Loves cadillac, hes not going anywhere.

 

Ok, I firmly believe that in terms of sheer ability McGahee is clearly superiior to many of the backs out there.

 

That means, teams that need a RB

1. Giants

2. Tennessee

3. Green Bay

4. Cleveland

5. Baltimore

6. Tampa Bay (I'll throw them in here)

7. Buffalo (Also throw them in due to losing mcgahee to make this feasible)

 

So thats it. 7 teams. What RBs are available?I will give what I feel the negatives on each player is or if they are better than WM IMO then it will also be noted

1. Willis McGahee-Fornicating nitwit who cant read a playbook

2. Cadillac Williams-Unavailable

3. Jamal Lewis-Getting slower and older more rapidly than most: that time in prison really did him well.

4. Adrian Peterson-unproven/injury prone

5. Marshawn Lynch-unproven, comes from PAC-10, where Defense isnt exactly emphasized

6. Micheal Bush-Unproven,slightly injury prone

7. Kenny Irons-Unproven and smallish too I believe.

8. Chris Brown-Injury Prone and possible sissy(although a hell of a runner when healthy)

9. Corey Dillon- Old + injury prone + slowing down

10. Ruben Droughns- Hes just plain overrated

11. Correll Buchalter-His injury history makes Dan Morgan look like Brett Favre

12. Ladell Betts- Has not proven he can handle 16 game beating.

13. Dominick Rhodes-Drunk who supposedly pees on himself, is great at no one thing but very good all around.

14. Micheal Turner-Probobly the only guy on this list who may turn out to be better than WM, again, has not shown that he can handle a full load

15. Kevin Barlow- Only performs like a starter when hes backing someone up. Cant handle criticism, thatd work out real well in WNY

16. Fred Taylor-Not Available, just signed extension, plus hes super injury prone. Just because we traded the pick used on him in exchange for Rob Johnson means that we want him back.

17. Anthony Thomas-Good grinder but no WM.

 

BTW: you left out LaMont Jordan, who seems to also suffer from Kevan Barlow syndrome.

 

 

As you see I gave up making things bold at a ceratin point.

[JimBob2232]

I'll give you Cadillac not being available, but I dont think Tampa is too enamored with him. I could see them being interested in a RB and then putting caddilac on the market, which is why I threw him in there. Its no big deal though. Scratch Caddilac and TB off the list, now you have 6 teams needing a RB and 16 available adequate choices. I could have thrown Oakland/Jordan in there....but again, its pretty irrelevant to my overall point.

 

Willis may or may not be the best back on the list, but he will cost the most (both financially and in pick compensation) than any other back on the list (sans Turner). It is unlikely anyone will give up a 3rd round pick for McGahee when they can go out and get a Chris Brown or Corey Dillon for no compensation, pay them less and not listen to them whine.

 

This is not the time to unload mcgahee. Best case scenario, keep him this season, make him prove himself.

[I 90]

BTW: you left out LaMont Jordan.

 

And the ever disappointing T.J. Duckett. A giant OLine deserves a big load part timer.

[Pyrite Gal]

If someone makes us an offer we can't refuse then make a deal. If not. fine. Play WM this year and it is not hard to imagine that in his contract year with the additional motivation he performs well. If he does and we want him then tag him or show him the money, and if he does not let him go.

[alg]

I'll give you Cadillac not being available, but I dont think Tampa is too enamored with him. I could see them being interested in a RB and then putting caddilac on the market, which is why I threw him in there. Its no big deal though. Scratch Caddilac and TB off the list, now you have 6 teams needing a RB and 16 available adequate choices. I could have thrown Oakland/Jordan in there....but again, its pretty irrelevant to my overall point.

 

Willis may or may not be the best back on the list, but he will cost the most (both financially and in pick compensation) than any other back on the list (sans Turner). It is unlikely anyone will give up a 3rd round pick for McGahee when they can go out and get a Chris Brown or Corey Dillon for no compensation, pay them less and not listen to them whine.

 

This is not the time to unload mcgahee. Best case scenario, keep him this season, make him prove himself.

Do you have some sort of insider info on Caddy or are you just making this sh-- up? He is not available, is a very expensive and uncuttable top 5 pick, and the head coach by all accounts happens to be in love with him. So except for these minor points I can see him getting moved this off-season....

[JimBob2232]

Do you have some sort of insider info on Caddy or are you just making this sh-- up? He is not available, is a very expensive and uncuttable top 5 pick, and the head coach by all accounts happens to be in love with him. So except for these minor points I can see him getting moved this off-season....

 

Wow. Again, this has nothing to do with my point. Take him out of the equation if you want to. Hell, I could have said LT was available and threw san diego into the mix and my point would be valid. I just saw a team with a back that had an awful year, and might be looking elsewhere. Perhaps they are not. If I told you i had inside information would you be happy?

[ganesh]

If the Bills really want to trade McGahee, why not send him to the raiders. The raiders wanted to get Willis in the draft 4 seasons ago. The Bills plucked him a few spots ahead of them. Al Davis might still have a fascination for him. Considering that Oakland picks 1st at every round, a 3rd rounder from them will be a good value pick. There has been rumor that they want to cut Jordan rather than having to pay him a 5M roster bonus. Considering that the Raiders are likely to get a few picks in the Randy Moss trade, I would think they might be an ideal trade partner.

 

Of course, ideally I would love to see McGahee back in a Bills uniform. It is one less position to worry about in the draft this spring.

[JimBob2232]

If the Bills really want to trade McGahee, why not send him to the raiders. The raiders wanted to get Willis in the draft 4 seasons ago. The Bills plucked him a few spots ahead of them. Al Davis might still have a fascination for him. Considering that Oakland picks 1st at every round, a 3rd rounder from them will be a good value pick. There has been rumor that they want to cut Jordan rather than having to pay him a 5M roster bonus. Considering that the Raiders are likely to get a few picks in the Randy Moss trade, I would think they might be an ideal trade partner.

 

Of course, ideally I would love to see McGahee back in a Bills uniform. It is one less position to worry about in the draft this spring.

 

Again, why would the raiders give up a 3rd round pick, and pay mcgahee a huge signing bonus/contract (which he is sure to want), when they can go get a Chris Brown for average money and keep their 3rd round pick? It just doesnt make sense. You saw how little the Bears got for Thomas Jones. Thats what we are looking at here folks.

[Fan in San Diego]

Nice work, Jim! I like the assessment and it puts the situation into a good visual form which helps my ADD brain see it clearly. So thank you...

 

I agree with your outlook that it is a buyers market for RBs. This just furthers my belief that moving Willis is not in our best interest. If there is one thing I have learned about McGahee in his 4 years here, it's that when properly motivated, he can do great things. He came back from a horrific knee injury when he had a huge chip on his shoulder, and when challenged publicly in the past, he has responded well. Plus, the way he carves up Vilma and the Jets can't be completely coincidence. I believe he can turn it up a few notches when he wants to and when he does, he is a top 10 RB easily.

 

That being said, I'd love to ride him out this year and see where he takes us. I think worst case, he gets us another 1100-1200 yards and does his usual dancing and a couple of bone headed plays. Best case, this new OL opens up serious holes, JP and Evans force defenses to respect the pass and Willis plays his ass off for a new contract. That combination (or any of those factors coming to fruition) could be damn scary.

 

So, if it is scenario A...then we can either re-sign him for way cheaper than he thinks he is worth...or let him go because we don't want him. Scenario B we either think he is the real deal and open the bank, decide we can't afford him and tag him to try to get something out of him, or let him go with no compensation.

 

Worst case, it would seem that all we would be missing is a 3rd round draft pick for this year. I'd definitely say that the risk is way worth it and that a 3rd rounder is no where near the potential value we could reap from a healthy, well-blocked for, highly motivated Willis McGahee in 2007.

 

KEEP Willis and ride that horse hard.

 

Sanity in this insane world.

[JimBob2232]

Updated Originial Post.