A Willis Trade

[ganesh]

Jacobs got less and less productive as the season wore on. While I agree he moves well for a man his size. What worries me is as the season wears on can he continually stay strong without wearing down due to his size.

 

Don't you think that has something to do with the regression of the Giants offense as a whole ? The giants were 6-2 in the 1st half of the season and then limped into the post season with a 2-6 record in the 2nd half.....The stats match that performance...

[BoondckCL]

Don't you think that has something to do with the regression of the Giants offense as a whole ? The giants were 6-2 in the 1st half of the season and then limped into the post season with a 2-6 record in the 2nd half.....The stats match that performance...

 

They need a spark like Willis McGahee.

[NotStuckonStupid]

and Killdrive as their OC

[Sketch Soland]

The chiefs should unload larry johnson he's coming off a 416 carry season his trade value will never be higher and he can probably expect a significant dropoff in production.

 

please tell me you left off the "/sarcasm" here.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

please tell me you left off the "/sarcasm" here.

 

Yeah Im sure he'll be fine coming off a season which he had the most carries in league history and will suffer no effects at all

 

just a little taste of history

 

| 1998 atl | 16 | 410 1846 4.5 14 | 27 319 11.8 2 |

| 1999 atl | 2 | 19 59 3.1 0 | 2 34 17.0 0 |

 

| 2000 ten | 16 | 403 1509 3.7 14 | 50 453 9.1 2 |

| 2001 ten | 16 | 315 939 3.0 5 | 37 279 7.5 0 |

 

| 1986 ram | 16 | 404 1821 4.5 11 | 26 205 7.9 0 |

| 1987 ind | 9 | 223 1011 4.5 5 | 13 133 10.2 0 |

| 1987 ram | 3 | 60 277 4.6 1 | 38 7.6 0

 

There's no doubt in my mind LJ will see a drop off in production. While it may not be to the effect of Jamal Anderson or Eddie George he's still a downhill bruising rb who takes an awful lot of hits.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Don't you think that has something to do with the regression of the Giants offense as a whole ? The giants were 6-2 in the 1st half of the season and then limped into the post season with a 2-6 record in the 2nd half.....The stats match that performance...

 

No doubt about it that is part of it although it didn't hurt tikis numbers who's numbers actually improved from sep-dec. Not that I want to compare apples to oranges cause it is unfair. I just dont see Jacobs giving much in the way of versatility as an everydown back. What he's there for is what suits him best a jerome bettis type role with a tiki/willie parker esque rb to go along with him.

[Sketch Soland]

Yeah Im sure he'll be fine coming off a season which he had the most carries in league history and will suffer no effects at all

 

just a little taste of history

 

| 1998 atl | 16 | 410 1846 4.5 14 | 27 319 11.8 2 |

| 1999 atl | 2 | 19 59 3.1 0 | 2 34 17.0 0 |

 

| 2000 ten | 16 | 403 1509 3.7 14 | 50 453 9.1 2 |

| 2001 ten | 16 | 315 939 3.0 5 | 37 279 7.5 0 |

 

| 1986 ram | 16 | 404 1821 4.5 11 | 26 205 7.9 0 |

| 1987 ind | 9 | 223 1011 4.5 5 | 13 133 10.2 0 |

| 1987 ram | 3 | 60 277 4.6 1 | 38 7.6 0

 

There's no doubt in my mind LJ will see a drop off in production. While it may not be to the effect of Jamal Anderson or Eddie George he's still a downhill bruising rb who takes an awful lot of hits.

 

So you sight two cases and then conclude that anyone in the future who resets the record for most carries in league history will suffer the same drop in production? 2 cases hardly is enough to make such a blanket generalization. Larry Johnson just finished his 4th season in the NFL. He played sparingly in 6 games his rookie year, 10 games his second year, and then 16 games in his 3rd and 4th year in the NFL, the last two years hitting the 1700 yard mark. One could easily say he is coming into his prime

 

2003 Kansas City Chiefs 6 0 20 85 4.3 15 1 0 5

2004 Kansas City Chiefs 10 3 120 581 4.8 46 9 4 34

2005 Kansas City Chiefs 16 9 336 1750 5.2 49 20 15 97

2006 Kansas City Chiefs 16 16 416 1789 4.3 47 17 10 91

 

He has had only two full years of playing. Notice he only started 9 games in 2005, for a grand total of 28 games in 4 years. Taking two other players and concluding that LJ will do the same is flawed, because it fails to take into account a myriad of other possibilities for George's and Anderson's drop in production, namely the team around them, etc. You are saying because Orange A and Orange B fell off trees in different orchards the same way, that Apple A in a different orchard will also fall off its tree in a same way. Sure, it is certainly possible that LJ will never equal his past season in terms of carries or yards for a lot of possible reasons, none of which necessarily have to do with Jamal Anderson or Eddie George. I think my argument shows that your certainty that he will based solely on your analysis is misguided and is in no way worthy.

[Sketch Soland]

No doubt about it that is part of it although it didn't hurt tikis numbers who's numbers actually improved from sep-dec. Not that I want to compare apples to oranges cause it is unfair. I just dont see Jacobs giving much in the way of versatility as an everydown back. What he's there for is what suits him best a jerome bettis type role with a tiki/willie parker esque rb to go along with him.

 

You don't want to compare apples to oranges?

 

 

But you want the Chiefs to trade Larry Johnson because you know for sure he won't equal his production of last year next year because Jamal Anderson and Eddie George didn't when they set the single season carry record?

 

Doesn't make sense to me, imo.

[83evans83]

Who would be a suitable team that we could trade Willis to, for decent value, that we wouldn't have to face that often and it wouldn't give him the opportunity to come back and bite us in the arse all that often?

 

I would say the New York Giants. They are going to lose Tiki Barber and i think that they are a team where Willis could be the star that he has always thought he is. The publicity factor would be something that he would not want to pass up and i think that New York would love to have a big name like him in their back field.

 

We could also probably get a decent second round or third round pick based on their position in the draft and would not be asking them to give up too much. If anything, the New York media would help push this through because of how over hyped McGahee truly is. I can hear it now; Sports radio shows in New York saying "pull the trigger and get Willis McGahee here".

 

Just a thought, who do you think would be a suitable trade partner?

Would you trade him to the Texans for there second and fourth round pics? Possibly the Browns?

[Tipster19]

Here's a novel idea, why don't the Bills dial up the Titans and see if we can trade MaGahee for Travis Henry. Oooh, that one is gonna hurt!

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

He has had only two full years of playing. Notice he only started 9 games in 2005, for a grand total of 28 games in 4 years. Taking two other players and concluding that LJ will do the same is flawed, because it fails to take into account a myriad of other possibilities for George's and Anderson's drop in production, namely the team around them, etc.[[/b]

 

Alright lets use the team around LJ. He lost willie roaf who retired. It was a rotating circus at lt and rt with kyle turley/kevin sampson/Jordan black. With sampson at rt and jordan at lt. This year Will Shields will probably retire. Larry Johnsons ypc went from 5.2 to 4.3 nearly a full yard. With Shields likely gone and their oline getting worse I could assume that LJs ypc will drop even further next year. The guy takes a lot of hits from defensive linemen. He's not a breakaway runner, he's a downhill rb it's only natural to assume hits take a toll on the body he's not made of iron. A guy like say LT can endure more touches over a period of time then LJ because LT takes far less punishment from dlinemen then LJ will.

 

 

 

You are saying because Orange A and Orange B fell off trees in different orchards the same way, that Apple A in a different orchard will also fall off its tree in a same way. Sure, it is certainly possible that LJ will never equal his past season in terms of carries or yards for a lot of possible reasons, none of which necessarily have to do with Jamal Anderson or Eddie George. I think my argument shows that your certainty that he will based solely on your analysis is misguided and is in no way worthy.

 

Fair Enough but truth be told there are only 5 rb's who ever received 400 carries in a season. Eric Dickerson, Jamal Anderson, Eddie George, James Wilder, and Larry Johnson. So it's not a big demographic to go on. Granted theres other things to take into account such as the team around them. I just can't see him coming in next season and being as willing to take another 350+ carries which he will be doing and staying effective for the entire season. A bit much to roll my eyes? Yeah snap judgement my fault.

 

If Im Carl Peterson I'd seriously look into trading him. Why run the guy into the ground for no reason when you have an aging team and no way to overcome the lack of talent around LJ. Their best offensive player outside of Johnson is a 30 year old te. So you keep LJ throw a boatload of money at him and watch your team deteriorate. Eventually rebuild and watch LJ's most productive years be a waste. Or sell high while he's still somewhat young for a rb. He'll be 28 next november. RB's generally don't get 2nd contracts from the team that drafts them for several reasons. The most obvious is they have a short shelf life. Enjoy the production while you have it hits take a toll and the legs wont go forever.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

You don't want to compare apples to oranges?

 

 

But you want the Chiefs to trade Larry Johnson because you know for sure he won't equal his production of last year next year because Jamal Anderson and Eddie George didn't when they set the single season carry record?

 

Doesn't make sense to me, imo.

 

Different teams. Different situations. Brandon jacobs isn't larry johnson and didnt break the single season rush attempt record. He's a 6'4 250+lb back who I dont think is an everydown back. That's all I was saying about him.

[BoondckCL]

Would you trade him to the Texans for there second and fourth round pics? Possibly the Browns?

 

I'm not sure we could get that much out of the Texans for Willis, but if they were to even offer a second round pick, i would certainly pull the trigger. The Browns are a possibility as well, but i don't see anyone from the Belichik tree offering anything for anything. Just an opinion though.

[Orton's Arm]

It seems pretty clear to me that the deal is here that the Bills need do little more than stay the course and either agree to a deal with WM if he actually produces or let him walk if he does not.

That sounds like the Nate Clements situation all over again. If McGahee produces, the Bills may not be in a position to re-sign him. He'll be a free agent, and will go to a team and a city of his own choosing. Under those circumstances, I don't see the Bills offering him more money than any other team, nor do I feel Buffalo would be at the very top of McGahee's list of places he'd like to be.

 

There's a real danger of getting into a one-and-done situation with McGahee. I'd much rather have a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick than have just one more year of McGahee's play.

 

You say that many draft picks don't work out, and that's certainly true. But I'd counter that by saying that unless a certain percentage of your draft picks work out, your team will not be a serious threat to go far in the playoffs. You have to gamble on your front office's ability to get a good chunk of those draft picks right, whether you like the gamble or not.

 

Think about the Bills' needs for next year:

 

Tier 1 (most important) needs

- ORG

- #2 WR

- MLB (assuming Fletcher leaves)

 

Tier 2 (almost as important) needs

- DT

- C

- TE

- CB (assuming Clements leaves)

- Misc.

 

As you can see, the Bills will find it impossible to fill all these needs with their day 1 picks. Adding a second round pick for McGahee could mean the difference between having a top-ten RG versus putting up with another year of Preston. Or it could mean having a real threat at DT versus having a Tim Anderson-style player manning the position.

[Koufax]

Everybody against Willis, get on record now so I can make fun of you next year. Talk about selling low...

 

Willis is not my favorite Bill, not one of the top backs in football, and I will not be too sad if he walks after 2007. But he is better than he is getting credit for, will play with a more experienced offense and a much better offensive line next season, and will have his contract year motivation (most running backs only ever get one of those in their careers). Willis will have a much better 2007 season than any of the replacement options we could consider.

 

I look forward to Willis starting 16 games in 2007 and the Bills going to the playoffs.

[BoondckCL]

Everybody against Willis, get on record now so I can make fun of you next year. Talk about selling low...

 

Willis is not my favorite Bill, not one of the top backs in football, and I will not be too sad if he walks after 2007. But he is better than he is getting credit for, will play with a more experienced offense and a much better offensive line next season, and will have his contract year motivation (most running backs only ever get one of those in their careers). Willis will have a much better 2007 season than any of the replacement options we could consider.

 

I look forward to Willis starting 16 games in 2007 and the Bills going to the playoffs.

 

Bills aren't going anywhere if Willis continues to do his impersonations of the Nutcracker on ice before he gets to the line of scrimmage.

[generaLee83]

Who would be a suitable team that we could trade Willis to, for decent value, that we wouldn't have to face that often and it wouldn't give him the opportunity to come back and bite us in the arse all that often?

 

I would think that if everything stays the same that the Redskins would be willing to part with all of their draft picks this year and 5 future 1st round picks.

 

Imagine the headline:

 

Washington trades 6 1st round picks and all remaining 07' picks for Willis McGahee, McGahee then signed to a 3 year 64 million dollar contract.

 

friggin redskins

 

They should be called the Washington Irrelevants

[Sketch Soland]

He has had only two full years of playing. Notice he only started 9 games in 2005, for a grand total of 28 games in 4 years. Taking two other players and concluding that LJ will do the same is flawed, because it fails to take into account a myriad of other possibilities for George's and Anderson's drop in production, namely the team around them, etc.[[/b]

 

Alright lets use the team around LJ. He lost willie roaf who retired. It was a rotating circus at lt and rt with kyle turley/kevin sampson/Jordan black. With sampson at rt and jordan at lt. This year Will Shields will probably retire. Larry Johnsons ypc went from 5.2 to 4.3 nearly a full yard. With Shields likely gone and their oline getting worse I could assume that LJs ypc will drop even further next year. The guy takes a lot of hits from defensive linemen. He's not a breakaway runner, he's a downhill rb it's only natural to assume hits take a toll on the body he's not made of iron. A guy like say LT can endure more touches over a period of time then LJ because LT takes far less punishment from dlinemen then LJ will.

You are saying because Orange A and Orange B fell off trees in different orchards the same way, that Apple A in a different orchard will also fall off its tree in a same way. Sure, it is certainly possible that LJ will never equal his past season in terms of carries or yards for a lot of possible reasons, none of which necessarily have to do with Jamal Anderson or Eddie George. I think my argument shows that your certainty that he will based solely on your analysis is misguided and is in no way worthy.

 

Fair Enough but truth be told there are only 5 rb's who ever received 400 carries in a season. Eric Dickerson, Jamal Anderson, Eddie George, James Wilder, and Larry Johnson. So it's not a big demographic to go on. Granted theres other things to take into account such as the team around them. I just can't see him coming in next season and being as willing to take another 350+ carries which he will be doing and staying effective for the entire season. A bit much to roll my eyes? Yeah snap judgement my fault.

 

If Im Carl Peterson I'd seriously look into trading him. Why run the guy into the ground for no reason when you have an aging team and no way to overcome the lack of talent around LJ. Their best offensive player outside of Johnson is a 30 year old te. So you keep LJ throw a boatload of money at him and watch your team deteriorate. Eventually rebuild and watch LJ's most productive years be a waste. Or sell high while he's still somewhat young for a rb. He'll be 28 next november. RB's generally don't get 2nd contracts from the team that drafts them for several reasons. The most obvious is they have a short shelf life. Enjoy the production while you have it hits take a toll and the legs wont go forever.

 

Good post. I can definitely see your point. The only thing I really disagree with is trading Larry Johnson. I can follow your rationale up to there. LJ is the second or third best back in the league and you don't trade a franchise player just because you need help in other areas. They certainly need a youth injection at the OL, which will help johnson if the OL improves, for sure, and will most likely determine how productive he is over the coming years. This will still only be his fifth season coming up and he has still only had two full years of wear and tear. considering he does take a lot of hits as you say, unlike an LT or thurman, he conservatively has anothe 4-5 years of high production possibility left imo. of course it will depend on the team around him too but i just can't see trading him at this point. the chiefs would have zero offense then.