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Week 16 Rooting Schedule

Ozymandius

By Ozymandius
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Koufax Veteran

Koufax

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Sorry if it has been mentioned elsewhere, but who has the Ravens-Colts and Ravens-Pats tiebreakers? Is there also a chance that the Ravens could have #3 certain going into the final week? (Pats lose, Ravens lose, Colts win, 10-5,11-4,12-3, if Baltimore were to have tiebreaker with Pats and not with Colts this would lock in #3).

 

I seem to see in the scenario above Baltimore winning the tie breaker with New England based on conference record, and I show Indy beating Baltimore based on common opponents (since at best Baltimore could tie conference record in week 17):

 

Indy: TEN W, DEN W, BUF W, TEN L, CIN W, 4-1 .800

Bal: DEN L, CIN W, TEN W, CIN L, BUF, 3-2 or 2-3

 

So if Baltimore and New England lose, and Indy and San Diego win, Baltimore would have the #3 seed locked up. That means that they would want to rest people against the Bills, and also means if the Bills win the Bills would go back and play them again in the playoffs.

 

Interesting stuff. I don't worry too much about whether the Ravens will need the win or not, so the Baltimore assured of #4 outlined earlier or the assured of #3 I'm trying to show here doesn't make a huge difference, but it is interesting to play around with.

 

Still, just beat the Titans, and then root against the Jets (since it would be too hard to root for the Fish), and things could line up pretty well.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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Sorry if it has been mentioned elsewhere, but who has the Ravens-Colts and Ravens-Pats tiebreakers?  Is there also a chance that the Ravens could have #3 certain going into the final week?  (Pats lose, Ravens lose, Colts win, 10-5,11-4,12-3, if Baltimore were to have tiebreaker with Pats and not with Colts this would lock in #3).

 

I seem to see in the scenario above Baltimore winning the tie breaker with New England based on conference record, and I show Indy beating Baltimore based on common opponents (since at best Baltimore could tie conference record in week 17):

 

Indy: TEN W, DEN W, BUF W, TEN L, CIN W,  4-1  .800

Bal:  DEN L, CIN W, TEN W, CIN L, BUF,  3-2 or 2-3

 

So if Baltimore and New England lose, and Indy and San Diego win, Baltimore would have the #3 seed locked up.  That means that they would want to rest people against the Bills, and also means if the Bills win the Bills would go back and play them again in the playoffs.

 

Interesting stuff.  I don't worry too much about whether the Ravens will need the win or not, so the Baltimore assured of #4 outlined earlier or the assured of #3 I'm trying to show here doesn't make a huge difference, but it is interesting to play around with.

 

Still, just beat the Titans, and then root against the Jets (since it would be too hard to root for the Fish), and things could line up pretty well.

871678[/snapback]

 

That's exactly correct I think. I would still root for NE this week because I'm not sure Balt would consider the fight for the #3 seed (instead of being #4) to be important. And there is no guarantee that even if they had the #3 seed locked up that they would be resting people.

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jester43 Veteran

jester43

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I wasn't ever going to post this here because I'm just a lurker on these boards, but I made a web comic about the Bills a few weeks ago that sort of shows how I feel about this squad. Don't get me wrong, I love this team more than almost anything. It's just stressful that I find myself sitting here at 10:30 running through what combinations we need to finally get back into the playoffs.

 

The sad thing is that I'm almost confident they'll find a way to make it.

 

Go Bills!

871552[/snapback]

dude. that is dark.

 

and it's not sad if they make it!

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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Found some other threads from our enemies discussing playoff scenarios

 

http://forums.cincybengals.com/showthread.php?t=17552

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=80155

http://mb.jaguars.com/Topic152065-6-1.aspx

http://mb.jaguars.com/Topic151582-6-1.aspx

http://www.jetsinsider.net/forums/showthread.php?t=132736 (GOOD JOB BUT NOT ENTIRELY ACCURATE... JETS BEATING MIAMI DOES NOT NECESSARILY ELIMINATE BUFFALO)

http://forums.titansonline.com/forums/show...?t=22102&page=3

http://www.chiefscoalition.com/Forums/inde...showtopic=60078 (MY FAVORITE...THAT'S A LOT TO ROOT FOR)

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=154727 (SAME)

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ezbills Practice Squad

ezbills

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Nice research!

 

I think what the Jets post was saying is that a Jets win over Miami ensures that the Jets will finish ahead of Buffalo. They don't really care who could get in the 2nd spot behind them. This is similar to how we consider KC, TEN, and PIT to be eliminated for the Bills playoff purposes because they will all finish behind the Bills if Buffalo wins out.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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I took the games and arranged them in order of importance below. Importance is of course subjective past the first two games.

 

BILLS beat Titans (Importance = 10)

DOLPHINS beat Jets (Importance = 9)

Chiefs beat RAIDERS (Importance = 6)

Bengals beat BRONCOS (Importance = 4) / BRONCOS beat Bengals (Importance = 2)

Patriots beat JAGUARS (Importance = 4) / JAGUARS beat Patriots (Importance = 2)

Colts beat TEXANS (Importance = 3)

STEELERS beat Ravens (Importance = 3)

Chargers beat SEAHAWKS (Importance = 3)

49ERS beat Cardinals (Importance = 2)

Buccaneers beat BROWNS (Importance = 1)

GIANTS beat Saints (Importance = 1)

FALCONS beat Panthers (Importance = 1)

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My Friends Call Me Tebucky Rookie

My Friends Call Me Tebucky

Posted
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I'm going to save you guys a lot of time by just telling you what's going to happen.

 

Week 16:

Seattle over San Diego

Mia over NYJ

Oak over KC

Den over Cincy

NE over Jax

Balt over Pitt

Ten over Buf

Cle over TB

Atl over Car

NO over NYG

GB over Minn

Indy over Hou

 

Week 17:

Pitt over Cincy

NE over Ten

KC over Jax

Oak over NYJ

Buf over Balt

Mia over Indy

Arizona over SD

Hou over Cle

NO over Car

Minn over StL

GB over Chi

 

 

 

Mark my words: there will be a 4-way tie among the divisional leaders at 12-4, Denver will grab the #5 seed at 10-6, and the 8 way tie for the #6 seed will go to....

 

Buffalo takes AFC East based on their 3-1 head to head record vs NYJ (2-2) and Miami (1-3).

 

Cincinnati takes AFC North based on division record over Pittsburgh.

 

Tennessee takes AFC South based on division record over Jacksonville.

 

KC takes AFC West because they're the only 8-8 team from the division.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee (5-7) and KC (4-8) eliminated due to Conference record, (Buffalo 6-6, Cincy 6-6).

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo and Cincy tie at 1-4 vs common opponents:

Cincy: NE (L), BAL (W), BAL (L), SD (L), IND (L)

Buffalo: NE (L), NE (L), BAL (W), SD (L), IND (L)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo takes #6 seed due to a strength of victory total of 64 wins, compared to Cincinnati's 59.

 

 

For what it's worth, the 4 way tie at 12-4 breaks down as follows:

1- SD (best conf record, 10-2)

2- Indy (4-1 vs opponents common w/ Balt)

3- Baltimore (2-3 vs opponents common w/ Indy)

4- NE (worst conf record, 8-4)

 

So Denver goes to New England, Buffalo goes right back to Baltimore for a re-match.

 

Buffalo makes the playoffs at 8-8. So it isn't impossible. They would ONLY have to have at least 15, and maybe up to 20 other outcomes of games come out perfectly in their favor. Stranger things haven't happened.

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Orton's Arm Veteran

Orton's Arm

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The Pats Jags game means more then you think.......Pats still dont have the division wrapped up.  So they really do need to win this game against the Jags.......

 

regardless we need the Pats to win......cause we do have the tie breaker over the Jags!

870712[/snapback]

What's nice is the Dolphins don't play the Jets until Monday night. The Patriots have to play the Jaguars without knowing the outcome of the Dolphins/Jets game. I don't say this very often, but this weekend I'll be hoping for a Dolphins win and a Patriots win.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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:nana:

Relax, drink, have a cigar and enjoy some Buffalo Bills football!  Let the chips fall where they might, its nice to enjoy this team again!

872794[/snapback]

 

I hear ya bro. At the same time, a lot of folks (like me) are wired to want to know exactly everything that needs to happen for our team to make the playoffs. Don't worry about us. We're having fun, too.

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DCBongo RFA

DCBongo

Posted
Posted
I hear ya bro.  At the same time, a lot of folks (like me) are wired to want to know exactly everything that needs to happen for our team to make the playoffs.  Don't worry about us.  We're having fun, too.

872798[/snapback]

 

Oh, I am loving it too, there are just too many X factors at work to make this palatable. Now, take a Bills win this week and let the flood gates open!

Thanks for the thread, this is some good stuff.

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ezbills Practice Squad

ezbills

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Who you want to win in the Denver/Bengals game depends on

your confidence in Miami beating the Jets,

whether you're a "hedge your bets" or a "double-or-nothing" kind of person, and

whether you have more confidence in PIT beating CIN or SF beating DEN in Week 17.

 

 

A Denver win is a "double or nothing" result because it greatly raises the stakes of the NYJ/Miami game, especially if New England also beats JAX. You want Denver to win if you have high confidence in Miami because a Dolphins win (plus an NE win) would put the Bills in control of their own destiny, while the Bills would still need some form of help if the Bengals and Dolphins win.

 

On the other hand, a Jets win plus a Denver win would virtually eliminate the Bills (and would actually eliminate the Bills if the Raiders also win tonight). The Bills would need SF to beat DEN in Week 17 (among other things) in this scenario to make the playoffs.

 

 

If you have low confidence in Miami winning, or you have a "hedge your bets" kind of approach, you want the Bengals to win. If Cincy wins, the Bills cannot control their own destiny going into the final week, but they are assured of still being in the playoff picture in the final week with a win over the Titans.

 

Also, a Bengals win is better for the Bills should Jacksonville and/or the Jets win their games this week. The Bills chances will be slim with a Jets win either way, but a Bengals win would give the Bills more possibilities than a Denver win should the Jets beat Miami. If the Bengals and Jets win, the Bills would need a Week 17 win by PIT over CIN (among other things).

 

 

I will be rooting for the Bengals because the Bills will already be in great shape for the playoffs if both New England and Miami win. A Bengals win would help the Bills chances in the event that either JAX or NYJ win, and I think that PIT has a better shot of beating CIN than SF does of beating DEN.

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Prognastic Practice Squad

Prognastic

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Posted
I'm going to save you guys a lot of time by just telling you what's going to happen.

 

Week 16:

Seattle over  San Diego

Mia over NYJ

Oak over KC

Den over Cincy

NE over Jax

Balt over Pitt

Ten over Buf

Cle over TB

Atl over Car

NO over NYG

GB over Minn

Indy over Hou

 

Week 17:

Pitt over Cincy

NE over Ten

KC over Jax

Oak over NYJ

Buf over Balt

Mia over Indy

Arizona over SD

Hou over Cle

NO over Car

Minn over StL

GB over Chi

 

872124[/snapback]

 

Here's how I see things shaping up;

 

Week 16:

SD over Seattle

Mia over NYJ

KC over Oak

Den over Cincy

NE over Jax

Pitt over Balt

Buf over Ten

Cle over TB

Atl over Car

NYG over NO

GB over Minn

Indy over Hou

 

Week 17:

Pitt over Cincy

NE over Ten

KC over Jax

NYJ over Oak

Buf over Balt

Indy over Mia

SD over Ariz

Cle over Hou

NO over Car

Minn over StL

GB over Chi

Den over SF

 

Not sure what that does to the seedings but there you have it.

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