Official Eat Crow Thread

[socalfan]

Wow! I mean WOW!

 

Now I've seen everything. Since the end of last season, I've read post by most of you screaming for line help, calling Marv senile and some threatening to not renew your season tickets. And now you say you have a change of heart. You now think you love the guys that were drafted.

 

What a bunch of wimps, fairies, flip floppers, no..no..no...I'm wrong you are not that. You are sheep. You follow the crowd. You've lost all credibility. I think you should nominate ndirish for president of your new club. You can name it the Screamers That Know Nothing. Yep, when I see the posts of the members of STKN, I'll know not to bother to respond.

 

JoeSix, I may disagree with you, but I got to say I respect you. You surely are not an STKNer.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

JoeSix, I may disagree with you, but I got to say I respect you.  You surely are not an STKNer.

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Thanks....I think.

 

don't mind me, i'm still traumatized by the punt from the 32.

[ndirish1978]

My feelings are so hurt by Socal's post I have considered following him now and replacing my avatar with a crying face. I have never hated Marv, I respect him too much for what he did before with the guys. Please believe I won't lose sleep over your jabs, your life is worth too little to me.

 

For those of you interested. I dunno if this was on the front page but I did see it surfing google yesterday: http://bills.scout.com/2/526808.html

It's a pretty good article that points out the fact that Marv is just following philosophies of team building he elicidated in his book. Sounds good to me.

[udonkey]

I haven't read this thread, but I've got to say - declaring the draft a SUCCESS without seeing these guys play is no better than declaring it a total failure. There will be crow to eat over the next 2-3 seasons...not yet though.

[Dibs]

Like most my initial response to Whitner was "WHAT?!?!?"

Then with McCargo..."AAARRRGGGHHH"

Having time to analyse the picks(plus the 3-5th rounders), It seems to me to be an extremely solid draft.

[BuffaloBilliever]

Martin Nance is a Gift from God.

[Pyrite Gal]

May I ask why?

 

what exactly have these two done to inspire confidence in you? I'm not being a smartass, I honestly want to know why peopel have confidence in a guy who's never GM'd a team before.

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I think the answer to your question (and some other posts in this thread are:

 

1. I think there is good hope and expectation of reloading the ST through the draft and other Bills actions:

 

Eveb though a key to our winning ways in the early 90s was the work of out ST, some folks still do not seem to get it that this facet is proavly at least an important and critical 1/4 to maybe a full 1/3 of winning this game.

 

Though it is tough to find stats which summarize it, I think the collection of stats (I think led by a Texas paper) which has declared the Bills the best overall ST in the league two years running is pretty accurate.

 

Its tough to get a lot better than being first but maintaining this performance is critical to this team as the D and O are not likely to meet all our hopes/expectations of improvement. However:

 

A. ST co-ordinator Bobby April is back and has been rewarded with the additional title of Asst. HC so this is the first step of mainetenance.

B. A hallmark of Marv in his initial Bills run was actually his commitment to ST so there will be a focus in practice time and player acquisition on this front.

C. The draft clearly showed selection of players noted for ST performance in college and heightened competition on this team which not only should improve starting play but the losers will be asked to and can improve their lot with strong ST play.

 

T think this team will at least maintain its ST performance and may well get better. Either of these is key to improvement.

 

2. It is only pretty certain that the D will get better because they were so bad last year, but there is good reason to hope/expect it to get better.

 

A. Jauron is known as a D HC, I think we can expect some good scheme stuff from this former NFL Coach of the Year and his DC Fenell while not showing outstanding results should work well with Jauron and has the potential to add to the Cover 2 with his experiences with a D which in essence was Cover 3.

B. This D is actually only a year removed from fininishing #2 statistically in the NFL after being #5 the year before, There are personnel holes from the bunch that ran the zone blitz well but given the horrible performance last year, changes had to be made, There are legitimate questions as to whether the newbies (particularly McCargo) can fill these holes, but there is a possibility they can and a good chance that even with problems that having some past D success guys in charge they can compensate if players do not work out or are hurt.

 

I expect the D to imporve from being statistically at the bottom of the league to at least the middle of the pack and maybe even better is not totally outlandish.

 

3. The O is my biggest worry for improvement, but:

 

A. It is quite likely we improve for performance at QB where TD panicked and at least rushed JP before he was ready if not made a bad choice totally. Either way, I think that though JP will be first among equals for the chance at the starting job, Holcomb is a reliable back-up whom we will go to if JP falters and indicates he will never learn, In addition, we have the intriguing Nall who i doubt will be more than a back-up but this unproven player will get a chance to prove himself. Agan if only because it was so bad last year QB production is likely to get better.

B. The OL is actually the big question mark, but I think that not only does moving beyong theMW era give us addition by subtaction, the starting crew IMHO is at least as talented as the NYG OL that JMac coached to an SB which was led by Glenn Parker at LT (he was not much better than the merely adequate Gandy) and Dusty Ziegler (Fowler actually produced better than the Duster as a C before landing their starting jobs. IMHO work still needs to be done, but it is work to sign better back-ups which I think are still out there in FA land ad it can be done.

C. I think that even if Moulds had stayed he would have been #2 behind Evans. I do not think that PP is capable of being a #1 but he already has shown he can be a #2 WR and if the docs check off on his health they have earned the benefit of the doubt with a great call on WM. Parrish has potential to step up to #2, but even if he is not there yet, he can be a potent #3 with soeed guys Evans and PP. I like the competition between Aiken, Reed and Davis (with Fast Freddy thrown in) to be #4 ir 5.

D. I think folks who are disappointed in WM ignore the simple fact he is the fastest to gain over 2000 yards of ANY Bills back including OJ amf TT. This fact does not count for everything and does not guarantee better production from him after his yardage outage in the second half of last year. However, it is a relevant fact which should not be totally ignored by those who fear he is not what they hoped for. While there is not guarantee that Thomas will return to the form which made him a 1000+ rusher with the Bears, we do not need him to be at #1 form simply #2, I write off Shaud as a #2 but think he was an effective change-up who can be a #3 and at least will be competition with Thomas. I think this area will be not only slightly improved by the personnel but actually with a more effective O than last year and better blocking this should be a better effort. I am acutally more concerned at FB where the braintrust seems to have more faith in Shelton than I do.

E. Some folks were wetting their pants over Vernon Davis, but Royal is a proven NFL starter with good blocking ability who at least is comparable to what whathisname who was cut produced. Everett is still a well-regarded rookie. Euhus was impressive before his injury (though no Gonzales) it is not unreasonable to see a player need a full season after an ACL tear to get back to their old form and IMHO is not unreasonable to hope he will be a reasonable #2.

 

I think the O should improve at least marginally this year.

 

In the end, we are all tied 0-0 at this point and it is not unreasonable to both hope the Bills will improve significantly or even to expect that this will occur. 8-8 is a significant improvement over 5-11 and in this league where worst to first is possibe like never before it would be the height of panic to give up on the season before anyone even bests you and to hope even beyond logic for the playoffs.

 

Thios objectively is why i think we will be better.

[Chilly]

Hmm, lets see, I like the draft.

 

I don't think its the best draft we could have had. I think it did ignore needs we had.

 

But I also liked the players we brought in.

 

Count me as one who is optimiscally reserved in regards to this draft. I think in the end it could work out, but I'm not too excited we didn't address the lines as much as wes hould have.

[Pyrite Gal]

I'd like to make 2 points in response to this.

 

First and foremost, to say this team would be been set back for taking AJ Hawk is just purely assenine.  AJ Hawk is a disruptive player, an elite linebacker this draft has not seen for a few years.  If anything, he alone has the capability to account for2-3 wins.  I assume you say this because he has no place to start.  Replaceing Posey with him would be huge -- and as Fletcher ages, he can transition to the middle and this team has a force at the LB position for years to come.  Couple that with Spikes' injury and the uncertainty surrounding it, this would not be a bad pick by any means.  Certainly, it shouldn't be used as fuel in a justification for picking Whitner.

 

Second, I wouldn't throw around the fact that the Bills got "3 first round level talents."  Ther Bills once thought Chris Kelsey was a first round level talent and were even targeting him in the first round and when we got him in the 2nd, we were jumping for joy (rightfully so).  But circumstance has proven that Kelsey pretty much got drafted where he should have been.

 

Hopefully the same can be said about Whitner and McCargo.

 

I abstain from signing this document.

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I keep making the it would have been a mistake to draft Hawk (even if he dropped to 8 and it would have been rediculous to trade up for him) not because I do not think he will be a great player (I think he will be even though I see the draft as a crapshoot anyway). I keep making the point because some folks do not seem to understand that there is a difference between picking good players and building a good team.

 

I think Hawk would kill the Bills who as RWS is aging and after 5 non playoff years want/need to go for the playoffs now and cannot wait to build toward the future as a goal.

 

I think it was decided before the draft (and as a future is now fan I agree with it) that in the first two round where first year starters can reasonably be found (though even this is not a certainty) this team was gonna go NEED rather than BAP.

 

The extension of Crowell, Stamer and Haggan to go with TKO (all signs point to recovery at this point and even an 80% TKO is better than 100% of most players at LB), Fletch and Posey under contract drafting Hawk would force this team and Ralph to sit millions in cap room on the bench not contributing.

 

Even worse, by drafting Hawk with our first round choice we would have been forced to fill the holes at SS and DT with lesser players.

 

These two items would have set back team building by at least a year if not two. We would have drafted a great player (likely) but we would have set back even the possibility of building a winning team this year (certainly) and even nect year (possibly likely).

 

Second, I see no problem throwing around the possbility we got three first round level talents on fay one.

 

First, though the draft remains a creapshoot, by defintion Whitner and McCargo were drafted in the 1st round. This does not mean they will succeed as the crapshoot of the draft simply means folks from reaches like Flowers to well regarded idiots like Leaf and Williams were drafted in the first rount.

 

The question is Yobouty. Yet, he clearly is being talked about as a guy some expected to go in the 1st. Most important for talking about him as someone expected to go in the first is the analysis of why he slipped down.

 

The consensus analysis I have seen is that he slipped because of inconsistency which some trace to his being an inexperienced youngster. In addition, as the most highly regarded CB in the draft slipped, this also pushed down the less well-regarded CBx like Yobouty.

 

He is worth throwing around the reference as a player some folks had as a 1st round level talent because:

 

1. Seeing no likely first year starters at the need psition of OL in Rd 3, the Bills them switched to a BAP emphasis. If the Bills were picking Yobouty to start immediately I really doubt this would happen even if they had gotten him in the 1st as some expected. However, we are going to try to deal with his inexperience by instead having him practice covering Evans et al. and watching former Pro Bowlers NC and McGee play CB and even learn under the guidance of former CB ProBowler Troy Vincent.

2. He seems to have first round talent but third round age and experience so i have no problem hypothesizing he may be a first round talent.

3. He will get to compete for significant playing time as the increased use of thrrr WR set has made the nickel position more like a pseudo starter than a reserve. I expect Greer and/or King to beat him but he will get a shot. If he merited a 1st round choice we will see soon enough but given this chance it is worth throwing around this idea.

 

I jave zero problems talking about him this way as I value team building far more than drafting. These are two related items but as seen in the paradox that a great player like Hawk actually likely hurts development of this team on a timline the Golden Boys are on they are different items.

[BADOLBILZ]

initial shock and frustration gives away to hope and anticipation

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That's probably more like it. "Eating crow" applies to having been proven wrong, which certainly is not the case, they haven't even put the pads on let alone played a game.

 

We all expect these players to be good, the issue is HOW good. This was a very deep draft, and the Bills appeared in position to draft a player of rare skill at a premium position #1. Didn't happen, Whitner may be good, but he's still a safety, which is the position on defense that requires the least matchup ability. In the end, it's likely that one or two of those first three picks will be a disappointment on some level. I mean, remember how Coy Wire was supposed to be super smart, fast, athletic and had ball skills from his days as a former RB? What happened?

[Dawgg]

You're being a tad ridiculous. By your logic, the Bills should have passed on Willis McGahee because he did not fill a position of need. Add to it the fact that he had to sit out a year, he set the team back for years. Yet you continue to gush about McGahee being the quickest player to rush for 2000 yards and seem to wholeheartedly back him... in any case, that's besides the point.

 

By your logic, the Saints should have passed on Reggie Bush. They had a much more pressing need at OT.

 

By your logic, the Bills should have passed on Sam Cowart. When the Bills took Sam Cowart, they did not have a pressing need at linebacker. In fact, they were fairly set -- but Wade realized that he was so good, he changed the defense to put him on the field. As a result, Cowart had a monster year and was a key contributor for a few years.

 

Your "team building" argument is just garbage. The draft is about taking good players -- that IS how you build a team. If you take a WR 3 years in a row like the Lions did, then yes, you set your franchise back. To suggest that Hawk would set this team back is laughable. The thread referenced below illustrates a similar decision that the Giants faced under Parcells.

 

http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=46566

 

I jave zero problems talking about him this way as I value team building far more than drafting.  These are two related items but as seen in the paradox that a great player like Hawk actually likely hurts development of this team on a timline the Golden Boys are on they are different items.

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[Pyrite Gal]

You're being a tad ridiculous.  By your logic, the Bills should have passed on Willis McGahee because he did not fill a position of need. Add to it the fact that he had to sit out a year, he set the team back for years.  Yet you continue to gush about McGahee being the quickest player to rush for 2000 yards and seem to wholeheartedly back him... in any case, that's besides the point.

 

By your logic, the Saints should have passed on Reggie Bush.  They had a much more pressing need at OT.

 

By your logic, the Bills should have passed on Sam Cowart.  When the Bills took Sam Cowart, they did not have a pressing need at linebacker.  In fact, they were fairly set -- but Wade realized that he was so good, he changed the defense to put him on the field.  As a result, Cowart had a monster year and was a key contributor for a few years.

 

Your "team building" argument is just garbage.  The draft is about taking good players -- that IS how you build a team.  If you take a WR 3 years in a row like the Lions did, then yes, you set your franchise back.  To suggest that Hawk would set this team back is laughable.  The thread referenced below illustrates a similar decision that the Giants faced under Parcells.

 

http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=46566

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No. Clearly I was quite poor in expressing my logic because you fairly completely misunderstand it.

 

My logic expresses the sense that there is not any completely extreme approach to building a winning team because building a winner involves balancing superficially contradictory approaches rather than embracing totally one approach (like doing EITHER a NEED approach to drafting OR a Best Available Player approach).

 

Just as it would be dumb to fail to draft WM, when you your read of the market indicates you have a good chance at picking up the DE you are after in the 2nd, and further, you have an RB (Henry) you plan to trade because you think he is an idiot in a year and your docs tell you that a top 5 value in this draft can be had at #23 because he is hurt and needs a full year off to geal.

 

TD did a great job balancing multiple factors in the '03 draft because:

 

1. He gauged that the early run on DL players gave him a good shot at Kelsay whom he credibly could have picked at #23 and we had a screaming need at DE as we were still recovering from the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

 

2. He also looked ahead to see that Henry's stupid money management had bought us an extra year of owning his rights cheaply and this ownership gave us the ability to sit the BAP WM for a year because of his two well over 1000 yard years.

 

This was a perfect example of TD pursuing and fortunately achieving a result which provided us with a choice that met this teams' needs in 2003 (another DE player good enough to contribute immediately) while also getting the best player available at the #23 pick (WM was judged a top 5 or higher pick prior to his injury).

 

My apologies for failing to communicate my logic properly because clearly you presentation of what you believe to be my football logic is totally incorrect.

 

In the AJ Hawk situation the Bills might have gotten the best player available if they took him, but this BAP pick would have left holes in this team which were essential to fill under the expressed desire and logic of Marv which was to win quickly if not immediately.

 

In addition to a Hawk pick setting back building a winning team by leaving critical holes at SS (the 4th safety had been picked by the time the Bills second came around) and DT (the 3rd DT had been picked when our 2nd pick came around and none were even selected in the 2nd round), it would have resulted in millions in cap hit sitting on our bench and not contributing since we both ASSUME Hawk is good enough to start immediately.

 

Good players are drafted and have to come from some where this is a fact. However, there is simply a difference between the above fact and a conclusion that the best way to get good players is through the draft.

 

The draft is a crap shoot as even NFL professionals are far from flawless at choosing successful players. We fans might try to maintain that we are so much brighter than NFL professionals that we do a much better or flawless job at picking successful players even though we are missing critical pieces of information like having our docs examine them and also interview them directly, but this seems fairly hard to believe. Do you or anyone else claim that you can predict who will be successful flawlessly or even better than NFL professionals even without the two above pieces of info?

 

There is actually a fairly low standard of NFL success from the draft crapshoot as I have yet to see anyone use more than fact-free opinion to contravert TDs claim that only 50% of even first round choices turn out to be NFL quality players of the level generally expected of an NFL 1st round choice. Unless you can give some credible indication that you can do better (again while missing a lot of critical medical info and having the ability to intensely interview college players), it is hard for me to see how you justify picking even a player you and I think will be as good as Hawk given the holes this leaves on a team which has expressed a need to win now and whose owner has shown a hatred of paying folks big bucks to sit.

[Lori]

Gotta disagree here:

By your logic, the Bills should have passed on Sam Cowart.  When the Bills took Sam Cowart, they did not have a pressing need at linebacker.  In fact, they were fairly set -- but Wade realized that he was so good, he changed the defense to put him on the field.  As a result, Cowart had a monster year and was a key contributor for a few years.

 

The year before Cowart was drafted, the Bills were forced to switch to a 4-3 base defense when both starting ILBs (Chris Spielman and Damien Covington) were lost to season-ending injuries. Then, Bryce Paup and Mark Maddox left via free agency. So on draft day 1998, the Bills' top options at ILB were the still-rehabbing Spielman, oft-injured John Holecek, and special-teams guy Marlo Perry.

 

Count me as one who absolutely loved the Cowart selection... but even with him on the team, Wade had to scrap his beloved 3-4 set until he thought Cowart was ready to start.

[Dawgg]

OK I understand what you were saying.

 

No. Clearly I was quite poor in expressing my logic because you fairly completely misunderstand it.

 

My logic expresses the sense that there is not any completely extreme approach to building a winning team because building a winner involves balancing superficially contradictory approaches rather than embracing totally one approach (like doing EITHER a NEED approach to drafting OR a Best Available Player approach).

 

Just as it would be dumb to fail to draft WM, when you your read of the market indicates you have a good chance at picking up the DE you are after in the 2nd, and further, you have an RB (Henry) you plan to trade because you think he is an idiot in a year and your docs tell you that a top 5 value in this draft can be had at #23 because he is hurt and needs a full year off to geal.

 

TD did a great job balancing multiple factors in the '03 draft because:

 

1.  He gauged that the early run on DL players gave him a good shot at Kelsay whom he credibly could have picked at #23 and we had a screaming need at DE as we were still recovering from the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

 

2. He also looked ahead to see that Henry's stupid money management had bought us an extra year of owning his rights cheaply and this ownership gave us the ability to sit the BAP WM for a year because of his two well over 1000 yard years.

 

This was a perfect example of TD pursuing and fortunately achieving a result which provided us with a choice that met this teams' needs in 2003 (another DE player good enough to contribute immediately) while also getting the best player available at the #23 pick (WM was judged a top 5 or higher pick prior to his injury).

 

My apologies for failing to communicate my logic properly because clearly you presentation of what you believe to be my football logic is totally incorrect.

 

In the AJ Hawk situation the Bills might have gotten the best player available if they took him, but this BAP pick would have left holes in this team which were essential to fill under the expressed desire and logic of Marv which was to win quickly if not immediately.

 

In addition to a Hawk pick setting back building a winning team by leaving critical holes at SS (the 4th safety had been picked by the time the Bills second came around) and DT (the 3rd DT had been picked when our 2nd pick came around and none were even selected in the 2nd round), it would have resulted in millions in cap hit sitting on our bench and not contributing since we both ASSUME Hawk is good enough to start immediately.

 

Good players are drafted and have to come from some where this is a fact.  However, there is simply a difference between the above fact and a conclusion that the best way to get good players is through the draft.

 

The draft is a crap shoot as even NFL professionals are far from flawless at choosing successful players.  We fans might try to maintain that we are so much brighter than NFL professionals that we do a much better or flawless job at picking successful players even though we are missing critical pieces of information like having our docs examine them and also interview them directly, but this seems fairly hard to believe.  Do you or anyone else claim that you can predict who will be successful flawlessly or even better than NFL professionals even without the two above pieces of info?

 

There is actually a fairly low standard of NFL success from the draft crapshoot as I have yet to see anyone use more than fact-free opinion to contravert TDs claim that only 50% of even first round choices turn out to be NFL quality players of the level generally expected of an NFL 1st round choice.  Unless you can give some credible indication that you can do better (again while missing a lot of critical medical info and having the ability to intensely interview college players), it is hard for me to see how you justify picking even a player you and I think will be as good as Hawk given the holes this leaves on a team which has expressed a need to win now and whose owner has shown a hatred of paying folks big bucks to sit.

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[BoondckCL]

I also have to admit that i am feeling more comfortable with these picks as time passes since draft day. I think that on draft day it was the idea of fixing the offensive line quickly that got a lot of people upset initially since it is a high priority. Not to mention the #8 selection of Donte Whitner. I think it helps that Brian "the Brian" Billick confirmed that he was going to pick Whitner with the #13 pick.

 

With the passing of time in between the draft and now i have gotten more comfortable with the concept that Marv is building a team and not just looking for a quick fix to the problems like Donahoe so desperately tried to do. Instead of drafting o-linemen that may not work out, he is establishing the strong hold on defense and will worry about the offense next year.

 

I also think this is a great topic seeing as not to often do you see someone retract statements previously made.

 

I think that the people who have not come around yet, will come around by training camp and if they haven't come around by then, they have probably never had any hope for any Bills squad for any year.

 

Our selections on defense were the smart move to make for this year, and i think Marv's realization of that only proves that he will probably do a very good job as GM. I was kind of skeptical about this draft at first but now looking at the talent and potential that we have on defense maybe we could skyrocket to be one of the best teams in the league in two years on account of this draft.