Our draft picks don't have a very good shelf life.

[Tipster19]

When you review our drafts from 1999 to present day, it's alarming to realize what our success ratio is. The players that are still on the current roster is mostly back-ups. Donahoe may have been a wheeler and dealer come draft day but he didn't have the greatest eye for selecting quality starters. I only count six, that's right SIX!, players that have been true starters for us up to this point. That's in SEVEN drafts! Here's a look back at these drafts.

 

1999-9 picks-0 players remaining from this draft. We had an additional 4th and 7th rd picks.

 

2000-8 picks-0 players remaining, additional 7th rd pick.

 

2001-12 picks-2 remaining players. 1st rd pick #21 overall CB Nate Clements and 2nd rd pick #46 DE Aaron Schobel. We had additional picks of 2nd rd, 3rd rd, two 6th rd, a 7th rd.

 

2002-10 picks-4 remaining players. 2nd rd pick #36 WR Jake Reed, 2nd rd pick #61 DE Ryan Denney, 3rd rd pick #97 SS Coy Wire, and 6th rd pick #187 CB Kevin Thomas. We had additional pick in the 2nd rd and three in the 7th rd. We did not have a 4th rd pick in this draft.

 

2003-8 picks-7 remaining players. 1st rd pick #23 RB Willis McGahee, 2nd rd pick #48 DE Chris Kelsay, 3rd rd pick #94 LB Angelo Crowell, 4th rd pick #111 CB Terrence McGee, 4th rd pick #127 WR Sam Aiken, 6th rd pick #187 DT Lauvele Sape and 7th rd pick #228 LB Mario Haggen. The only pick who is no longer on the roster is OG Ben Sobieski. The last time I heard he was on San Fran's practice squad. We had an additional 4th rd pick in this draft.

 

2004-6 picks-6 remaining players. 1st rd pick #13 WR Lee Evans, 1st rd pick #22 QB JP Losman, 3rd rd pick #74 DT Tim Anderson, 4th rd pick #109 TE Tim Euhus, 7th rd pick #207 OT Dylan McFarland, and 7th rd pick #214 WR Jonathan Smith. We had an additional pick in the 1st rd and 7th rd. We also had no picks in the 2nd rd, 5th rd or in the 6th rd.

 

2005-6 picks-6 remaining players. 2nd rd pick #55 WR Roscoe Parrish, 3rd rd pick #86 TE Kevin Everett, 4th rd pick #122 OL Raymond Preston, 5th rd pick #156 CB Eric King, 6th rd pick #197 OL Justin Geisinger, and 7th rd pick #236 RB Lionel Gates. We had no 1st rd pick in this draft due to us trading it to Dallas for JP Losman.

 

 

 

How disturbing is this? This is where we need Marv & Co. to really make a difference. If they can do a better job of drafting players who not only will be starters but to also be able to hang on to them. I don't know what the current status of our scouts are but I do remember that Donahoe replaced alot, if not all, of our longstanding senior scouts. Scouts who were with us for years with a proven track record. Hopefully Marv went back and retained some of them. We do have a pretty good nucleus built right now. We have pretty good depth in some positions but what we are really lacking is STARTERS in some key positions. If Marv can utilize this draft with the quality of picks that we have with some frontline ready players, then we could possibly have not only a huge but also a rapid turn around in our upcoming season(s).

[Chilly]

To be honest, what you posted wasn't that bad.

 

Do you really expect most draft picks to be starters? Seems extremely unrealistic.

[Acantha]

To be honest, what you posted wasn't that bad.

 

Do you really expect most draft picks to be starters?  Seems extremely unrealistic.

656259[/snapback]

 

This is a blurb from NFLdraftcountdown talking about the Charger first pick:

 

Very few teams do as good of a job scouting and developing their own talent as the Chargers and right now they have 15 players that they drafted starting for them, and that doesn't include Antonio Gates and Kris Dielman who they signed as undrafted free agents. For those who are counting that's 17 homegrown starters, which is pretty amazing no matter how you cut it!

 

Now, this is just one team. I have no idea what the league average is and how Buffalo compares. But it does show what can be done when you have the right people making decisions (and the right people advising them).

[Tipster19]

I don't think that we can do any worse, or at least I hope we don't. I think Donahoe equalized players/personnel too much. It seemed like he made everybody too vanilla. Intensity, I hope that that's a criteria when we make our selections. I what I wouldn't do to have a Talley/Tasker/Bebee type player(s) on this team again.

[eSJayDee]

Well, considering that the avg NFL career is less than 3 years, these results probably aren't too atypical. You fail to mention how our drafted players that are no longer on the team have faired. (In this era of FA, you can't expect to hold onto all of your players.)

We've kept a VERY high %age of our younger players (2003-2005); I think that's very good although granted the overal talent level of the team makes it easier for them to stay.

Any player from 1999-2001 drafts would be what you call an 'established veteran'. We've managed to retain 2. This is certainly below what you would want, but again, it fails to take into consideration how many are contributing elsewhere. And although it is low, taking into consideration typical distributions, I don't think you can conclude we did poorly.

[Orton's Arm]

I don't think you can conclude we did poorly.

656441[/snapback]

It's difficult to conclude otherwise when your team finished at 5-11, with zero draft picks starting on the offensive line, and only one draft pick proving anything on the defensive line. Going into the 2006 season, there will be a three man competition at QB, no proven go-to WR, question marks at TE, and a RB who may or may not be above-average for a starter. After five years, TD should have delivered more.

 

You talk about how it's normal for your best players to walk in free agency. But in Buffalo, this has become more normal than for most teams. One year, Jonas Jennings led the list of available free agent left tackles. Another year, it was Antoine Winfield being by far the best available CB. Instead of franchising and trading those guys as he did Peerless, TD let those guys simply walk out the door. If letting your best players hit free agency is so common, why is the free agent market usually so thin? Why were so many of the best free agents from Buffalo?

 

I've listed the results of TD's first round picks in my sig. Look at his second round choices:

 

2001a: Aaron Schobel. Result: solid starter.

2001b: Travis Henry. Result: didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to have been worth a 2nd round pick.

2002: Josh Reed. Result: Reed was the #4 receiver in 2005.

2003: Chris Kelsay. Result: decent backup player.

2004: Traded for Losman. Result: a three man QB competition.

2005: Roscoe Parrish. Result: Yet another slot receiver on a team with no OL or DL.

 

Other than the Schobel pick, there are no unqualified success stories in either of the first two rounds. That's pathetic.

[JimBob2232]

Who is Jake Reed?

[eSJayDee]

Who is Jake Reed?

 

I think he's a WR that used to play for the Vikings.

[eSJayDee]

You talk about how it's normal for your best players to walk in free agency. But in Buffalo, this has become more normal than for most teams. One year, Jonas Jennings led the list of available free agent left tackles. Another year, it was Antoine Winfield being by far the best available CB.

 

I don't know if this is true or not (us losing more than our share of talent). Certainly, I (& probably most of us) am of the opinion that TD was more reluctant than most to pay to retain top notch talent.

But had we managed/chosen to retain the likes of Winfield & Jennings (add Wiley and perhaps Fisher & maybe a few others to the list) and it only goes to show that we didn't do that poorly in DRAFTING. Our weakness was apparently in how we chose how to use available cap space. (And here again, TD was 'judicious' in cap space usage; seldom mortgaging the future for the present like Butler did & the likes of Snyder does now. If there hadn't been such a large jump in cap $ this year, how do you think we'd be sitting relative to other teams? I'd bet we'd be in a much better postion to add talent rather than lose it. In hindsight, a few million spent each year might have been the difference in being able to retain these guys & letting them walk.)

W/ respect to our overall talent level, I think most of us thought we had a decent chance of the playoffs last year. Our Dee had been top notch the previous 2 years, largely based on talent (albeit, vet FA talent recruited from elsewhere.) The general consensus was that we underachieved.

[LabattBlue]

When you review our drafts from 1999 to present day, it's alarming to realize what our success ratio is. The players that are still on the current roster is mostly back-ups. Donahoe may have been a wheeler and dealer come draft day but he didn't have the greatest eye for selecting quality starters. I only count six, that's right SIX!, players that have been true starters for us up to this point. That's in SEVEN drafts! Here's a look back at these drafts.

 

1999-9 picks-0 players remaining from this draft. We had an additional 4th and 7th rd picks.

 

2000-8 picks-0 players remaining, additional 7th rd pick.

 

2001-12 picks-2 remaining players. 1st rd pick #21 overall CB Nate Clements and 2nd rd pick #46 DE Aaron Schobel. We had additional picks of 2nd rd, 3rd rd, two 6th rd, a 7th rd.

 

2002-10 picks-4 remaining players. 2nd rd pick #36 WR Jake Reed, 2nd rd pick #61 DE Ryan Denney, 3rd rd pick #97 SS Coy Wire, and 6th rd pick #187 CB Kevin Thomas. We had additional pick in the 2nd rd and three in the 7th rd. We did not have a 4th rd pick in this draft.

 

2003-8 picks-7 remaining players. 1st rd pick #23 RB Willis McGahee, 2nd rd pick #48 DE Chris Kelsay, 3rd rd pick #94 LB Angelo Crowell, 4th rd pick #111 CB Terrence McGee, 4th rd pick #127 WR Sam Aiken, 6th rd pick #187 DT Lauvele Sape and 7th rd pick #228 LB Mario Haggen. The only pick who is no longer on the roster is OG Ben Sobieski. The last time I heard he was on San Fran's practice squad. We had an additional 4th rd pick in this draft.

 

2004-6 picks-6 remaining players. 1st rd pick #13 WR Lee Evans, 1st rd pick #22 QB JP Losman, 3rd rd pick #74 DT Tim Anderson, 4th rd pick #109 TE Tim Euhus, 7th rd pick #207 OT Dylan McFarland, and 7th rd pick #214 WR Jonathan Smith. We had an additional pick in the 1st rd and 7th rd. We also had no picks in the 2nd rd, 5th rd or in the 6th rd.

 

2005-6 picks-6 remaining players. 2nd rd pick #55 WR Roscoe Parrish, 3rd rd pick #86 TE Kevin Everett, 4th rd pick #122 OL Raymond Preston, 5th rd pick #156 CB Eric King, 6th rd pick #197 OL Justin Geisinger, and 7th rd pick #236 RB Lionel Gates. We had no 1st rd pick in this draft due to us trading it to Dallas for JP Losman.

How disturbing is this? This is where we need Marv & Co. to really make a difference. If they can do a better job of drafting players who not only will be starters but to also be able to hang on to them. I don't know what the current status of our scouts are but I do remember that Donahoe replaced alot, if not all, of our longstanding senior scouts. Scouts who were with us for years with a proven track record. Hopefully Marv went back and retained some of them. We do have a pretty good nucleus built right now. We have pretty good depth in some positions but what we are really lacking is STARTERS in some key positions. If Marv can utilize this draft with the quality of picks that we have with some frontline ready players, then we could possibly have not only a huge but also a rapid turn around in our upcoming season(s).

656258[/snapback]

I'm not sure if you are trying to place the blame for the 1999 & 2000 drafts on TD, but I'm pretty sure he didn't come aboard until 2001.

[Pyrite Gal]

I'm not sure if you are trying to place the blame for the 1999 & 2000 drafts on TD, but I'm pretty sure he didn't come aboard until 2001.

656590[/snapback]

 

I also found the addition of these two pre-TD drafts and odd choice to make if one ia assessing TDs work, Its odd even if you are trying to simply assess the Bills as a team since there is some feeling that Butler tanked the Erik Flowers draft either on purpose or simply the scouts the post purports to defend screwed up badly.

 

If one is going to do a relevant comparison then TD's record of player's still on the roster needs to be compared to the NFL rate of players still on the team's that drafted them roster. I have not seen such a stat but would be surprised if isn't somewhere.

 

In addition, the average length of service for an NFL player should be found and a comparison made for the Bills versus the MFL, though I would be surprised that given the 5 years of TD duty that we need more time to make a real assessment.

 

I think the two extra years were likely added because without them, the TD draft record actually does not look that bad at all. This is not surprising to me as I think TD's actual real big errors that made him deserved to get canned were not player assessment, negotiation and acquisition mistakes, they were hiring GW as a horrible HC, not supplementing his offensive management deficits, and then mismanaging the development of the team under MM.

[finknottle]

I'm right up there with bashing TD, but I don't think that is so bad given that nowadays it is the norm for successfull draftee's to start and then leave as free agents.

[Orton's Arm]

I don't know if this is true or not (us losing more than our share of talent).  Certainly, I (& probably most of us) am of the opinion that TD was more reluctant than most to pay to retain top notch talent.

But had we managed/chosen to retain the likes of Winfield & Jennings (add Wiley and perhaps Fisher & maybe a few others to the list) and it only goes to show that we didn't do that poorly in DRAFTING.  Our weakness was apparently in how we chose how to use available cap space.  (And here again, TD was 'judicious' in cap space usage; seldom mortgaging the future for the present like Butler did & the likes of Snyder does now. 

656588[/snapback]

I agree the Bills were in good cap shape under TD, and that's one of the very few things he did right. But it's a question of getting value per dollar spent. Much of the money TD saved by letting Antoine Winfield walk was spent overpaying for players like Lawyer Milloy. Most teams identify core players--quality guys at key positions they intend to keep for their whole careers. Orlando Pace. Peyton Manning. Tom Brady. Guys like that. Very seldom do you see a young, near elite player at a key position like CB hit free agency. That's why the Jets and Minnesota were both so desperate to sign Antoine Winfield--they knew an opportunity like that doesn't come around very often. Most teams are smart enough to hold onto their Antoine Winfields, never letting them hit free agency.

 

You can hold onto the Antoine Winfields of the world and still stay under the cap. Butler's problem was that he overpaid for players like an aging John Fina, giving him far more than what he was worth on the open market. But while Butler was too generous with Ralph's money when it came to players with little value on the open market, TD was too stingy when it came time to retain the Bills' best draft picks.

 

Some are inclined to let TD off the hook, saying there was little talent on the roster when he arrived. This, despite the fact the Bills had come 16 seconds away from a playoff win a year before his arrival. Fact of the matter is, there was talent on the roster: Peerless Price, Eric Moulds, Antoine Smith, Antoine Winfield, Pat Williams, Ted Washington, John Holocek, etc. While it's true the cap was a mess, and that some guys needed to go, TD got rid of too much young talent.

 

Excusing TD because of the absence of Butler players on the roster is like excusing a man who shot his father, on the grounds that he's an orphan. TD chose to let Winfield walk, he chose to cut Antoine Smith to make room for his draft pick Travis Henry, he chose to part ways with guys like Bryce Fischer, John Holocek, Sam Cowart, etc. Sometimes TD used free agency to make good the player loss, and sometimes he tried the bargain basement approach.

[Tipster19]

Oh my gosh, it looks like I have some explaining to do. First off if you noticed what time I posted then you'll understand why there wasn't alot of personal elaboration. Most of the post was just reviewing the past seven drafts. The Jake Reed instead of Josh Reed was just an oversight. *See above delirious explaination. I wasn't stating that TD was responsible for all seven drafts, although I do understand that it does appear that way. My bad. As far as ANYBODY thinking that we haven't done too shabby with our draft picks, well the thing that I got to say about that is, what in the world do you consider shabby?!!! Oh, we have drafted some good players but where are they? The title of the post was "OUR DRAFT PICKS DON'T HAVE A VERY GOOD SHELF LIFE". There wasn't anything mentioned about the quality of players other than what's left is mostly back-ups. Did I misrepresent? I do stand by what I said about TD. He is more of a wheeler and dealer than having a good eye for talent. The other reference I made about TD making everybody vanilla is probably the truest thing on this whole darn thread. He REFUSED to retain any of our higher quality talent, he would just let them go. One other thing, nobody, and I mean NOBODY, should ever credit him with being such a "cap master". Anybody on this board could have gone in and gut a team like he did and start fresh. While he may have stayed under the cap after that, he did it with VERY prudent ways. BIG DEAL! How many YOUNG talent did he underpay so he could overpay SOME seasoned FAs? Everybody realizes that for an organization to be successful you have to build through the draft AND retain your draftees. This we never did until the last couple of years and that's because it's still too early to come to a full evaluation on these players. This post was never meant to bash TD but I don't want to hear how great he is/was. Our teams BLEW under his tenure, that's the bottomline. Why don't some of you fans get with it. ALL we ever hear from the owners, players and coaches is that "it's a business". Yeah, they're right, but we are the paying customer and it's been long OVERDUE for us to see a good, competitive product on the field.

 

If anyone thinks that having a total of 6 true starters from 7 drafts is not that bad of a job, then I'm just wasting mine and your time.