Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Nor can he expect to have by playing in parts of nine games, with the coach constantly looking over his shoulder and not letting him learn and finish games. Not with a coach who gave it all to him, only to take it away. Losman did not have one chance to earn the job from Mularkey. It was all-or-nothing. Also, the point was that Favre had done nothing in his first two years, champ. 589431[/snapback] So every quarterback who's been benched after nine games will become the next Favre? I don't think so. There's a chance Losman will become a real QB like Favre. I'd say that chance hovers around 15% or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 So every quarterback who's been benched after nine games will become the next Favre? I don't think so. There's a chance Losman will become a real QB like Favre. I'd say that chance hovers around 15% or less. 589446[/snapback] Theres a chance that holcomb will actually lead the bills to more than 9 wins and a playoff appearance. Unfortunately that hovers around 2-3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Theres a chance that holcomb will actually lead the bills to more than 9 wins and a playoff appearance. Unfortunately that hovers around 2-3% 589451[/snapback] Let's say we're both right, and Losman's chance of being a real QB is 15%, and Holcomb's is 2-3%. That works out to a little less than a 17%-18% chance of having the right QB on the roster. Which means the Bills should draft Cutler if he's available, and if he's the real deal. Which is what I've been saying for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Let's say we're both right, and Losman's chance of being a real QB is 15%, and Holcomb's is 2-3%. That works out to a little less than a 17%-18% chance of having the right QB on the roster. Which means the Bills should draft Cutler if he's available, and if he's the real deal. Which is what I've been saying for some time now. 589472[/snapback] So then 8 games into next year when he's done nothing, BECAUSE HES A ROOKIE WITH NO EXPERIENCE, then you can start calling for us to draft another QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 So then 8 games into next year when he's done nothing, BECAUSE HES A ROOKIE WITH NO EXPERIENCE, then you can start calling for us to draft another QB? 589483[/snapback] No, because in Cutler's case, there'd be a solid college track record of pocket passing. In any event, my plan would be to sit Cutler his rookie year, giving Losman a chance to prove something one way or the other. He may only have a 15% chance, but I'd like to find out for sure if he can be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EC-Bills Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Being a "journeyman backup" may not be good enough for a HOF induction. But it was enough to send Losman to the bench. Twice! 589441[/snapback] Yeah, that's some praise for your journeyman backup to send a *rookie* to the bench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Yeah, that's some praise for your journeyman backup to send a *rookie* to the bench. 589546[/snapback] I wouldn't exactly call Losman a rookie. He had two years of training camps, mini camps, etc. He had his whole first year to watch film and learn the playbook. Sometimes that extra time spent learning can help a guy quickly perform on the field, as it did for Chad Pennington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Sure it's a fair question. The merits of whether or not he should have been drafted when he was is moot at this point. The original poster has a serious case of manlove KH and consistently trashes JP. Hardly an ubiased question. As I said before, I don't know if JP is the answer or not, but we're never going to find out by jerking him around. Give the kid an oppurtunity to compete fairly for the job and let's see what happens. 589039[/snapback] Well, if you consider where he was drafted moot, then why are you posting in this thread? Regardless of if the sub-text was to criticize JP, the original topic was clearly intended to be about TD's history in drafting qb's. Frankly, I think the man-love war here started with the reaction of the JP fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 15%? Can you show your work? What chance does the BEST prospect have, IYO? How about the middling prospects? How does that 15% compare to guys like Rivers and the baseball player in Dallas? What did you think Ben's chances were? Eli's? What about the top guys coming out? I'm not suggesting you answer all these questions...just give us some parameters to work with here...k? 589094[/snapback] I wouldn't put it at 15%, but the number thrown out earlier, 50%, is based on the stats for first round qb over the last 15ish years. Something like 50% were busts, 25% became journeymen, and 25% were the long-term starters for the teams that drafted them. So if I put everything I saw last season out of my mind, I'd give him only a 25% chance of being the starter here four years from now. How you adjust that number based on what you saw depends on the tint of your glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 And what excatly has holcomb done to show that he can lead this team? NOTHING! But i guess being a journeyman backup is good enough for a HOF induction. 589430[/snapback] Has JP shown any evidence of leadership? Funny how if the veterans rally around KH they are traitors or worse, and by no means do we conclude that KH has any leadership skills. But JP, whom I don't remember any players calling for while he wasn't starting, gets the benefit of the doubt. Must be the magical sheen of the first rounder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Has JP shown any evidence of leadership? Funny how if the veterans rally around KH they are traitors or worse, and by no means do we conclude that KH has any leadership skills. But JP, whom I don't remember any players calling for while he wasn't starting, gets the benefit of the doubt. Must be the magical sheen of the first rounder... 589940[/snapback] You and the arm are so cute together in your JP bashing and holcomb love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 I wouldn't put it at 15%, but the number thrown out earlier, 50%, is based on the stats for first round qb over the last 15ish years. Something like 50% were busts, 25% became journeymen, and 25% were the long-term starters for the teams that drafted them. So if I put everything I saw last season out of my mind, I'd give him only a 25% chance of being the starter here four years from now. How you adjust that number based on what you saw depends on the tint of your glasses. 589930[/snapback] The 25% chance you quote is a good starting point. I'd tend to adjust that number upwards for quarterbacks selected for their pocket passing, and downwards for those selected for their athletic gifts. I remember when Manning and Leaf were being drafted, that Manning was described as more "polished" while Leaf presumably had more upside because of his stronger arm. Since Losman was selected more for his athleticism than anything, the 15% figure I mentioned earlier is probably on the generous side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 OK we know you do not like ho.... JP can we let this die and see how it shakes out ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 You and the arm are so cute together in your JP bashing and holcomb love. 589946[/snapback] Thanks for this precious gem of insight. Or at least, thanks for trying. But Finknottle brings up a valuable point. When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb. So either Losman isn't as good as Rob Johnson, or Holcomb is better than Flutie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Thanks for this precious gem of insight. Or at least, thanks for trying. But Finknoodle brings up a valuable point. When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb. So either Losman isn't as good as Rob Johnson, or Holcomb is better than Flutie. 590106[/snapback] ???????????????????????? As a research guy, I have to ask to see the data and the measurement instrument used. This sounds like TOTAL bulls#it, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 You and the arm are so cute together in your JP bashing and holcomb love. 589946[/snapback] The only man-love going here seems to be coming from you. I don't particularly like KH. I don't dislike JP. I have no deep opinion other than KH plays well in a limited gameplan, and JP hasn't shown me anything yet. I am not in either of your two camps. To me the interesting questions have been the more theoretical 'how long do you keep a first rounder on the bench' and 'how long do you commit to a first rounder before moving on.' The only thing I bash are people who won't discuss Bills topics objectively. People who assume that because we drafted a player in the first round - whether JP, WM, or whomever - that they will automatically pan out, will make endless apologies for them that they wouldn't make for another comparably performing player, and think that we should spend whatever it takes to keep them. And above all, who turn any attempt at a critical discussion into a slap-fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 ???????????????????????? As a research guy, I have to ask to see the data and the measurement instrument used. This sounds like TOTAL bulls#it, IMO. 590111[/snapback] From another thread - looks like my Rex Grossman obit might be premature! We'll see next year... For the challenged out there, note that this was neither a call for KH nor a bashing of JP. It questions the philosophy that say's you get a better team payoff by starting young quarterbacks sooner to get them experience. ---------------------------------------------------- Nov 1 2005, 09:57 PM This is in response to the chorus of fans who seem to assume that (1) by virtue of being a first round choice JP will likely be a good qb, and (2) it is worth stepping back a year to develop him on the field and find out more quickly. To the second, let me point out that teams that commit to starting a first round QB who doesn't ultimately pan out frequently spend 2 or more years in limbo before they cut their losses and try again. As to the first, let's look at the numbers. I took all 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 1990 to 2003, and sorted them into three groups: Good (10), Journeyman (4), and Bust (14). (A player with a ?- means it's a little too early to to be sure...) --- GOOD Drew Bledsoe (1, 1993) Steve McNair (3, 1995) Kerry Collins (5, 1995) Peyton Manning (1, 1998) Donovan McNabb (2, 1999) Daunte Culpepper (11, 1999) ? Chad Pennington (18, 2000) Michael Vick (1, 2001) ? Carson Palmer (1, 2003) ? Byron Leftwich (7, 2003) --- JOURNEYMAN Jeff George (1, 1990) Tommy Maddox (25, 1992) Trent Dilfer (6, 1994) ? David Carr (1, 2002) --- BUST Andre Ware (7, 1990) Todd Marinovich (24, 1991) David Klingler (6, 1992) Rick Mirer (2, 1993) Heath Shuler (3, 1994) Jim Druckenmiller (26, 1997) Ryan Leaf (2, 1998) Tim Couch (1, 1999) Akili Smith (3, 1999) Cade McNown (12, 1999) ? Joey Harrington (3, 2002) ? Patrick Ramsey (32, 2002) ? Kyle Boller (19, 2003) ? Rex Grossman (22, 2003) So - if history is any guide we have a 50-50 chance that JP will be a bust. The question is: is it worth stepping back a year - going 4-12 say, and maybe 4-12 again the following year - to find out for sure the value of a player who is unlikely to be the starter in 2 years? He is more likely to be another Cade McNown than a Peyton Manning. Or maybe he is merely better than average - would Tommy Maddox have been worth stepping back a few years? And even if he is in the top tier, would it be worth it to develop a Chad Pennington, Steve McNair, or - gasp! - a Drew Bledsoe? Alternatively, given those odds, is it better to assess while he's on the bench? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 From another thread - looks like my Rex Grossman obit might be premature! We'll see next year... For the challenged out there, note that this was neither a call for KH nor a bashing of JP. It questions the philosophy that say's you get a better team payoff by starting young quarterbacks sooner to get them experience. ---------------------------------------------------- k. This addresses my question of how Arm arrived at the statement below, how? "When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 k. This addresses my question of how Arm arrived at the statement below, how? "When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb." 590186[/snapback] I'm calling bull sh--. How about Lee Evans? His resurgence coincided completely with Losman's reintroduction to the offense in KC. I'm sure he's interested in giving Losman a chance. But of course, the Arm has his ear hardwired to the Bills locker room, so he knows all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 k. This addresses my question of how Arm arrived at the statement below, how? "When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb." 590186[/snapback] Sorry - I misunderstood, thought you were questioning the odds. The JP-KH part jibes with my recollection because the Moulds-Evans comments were widely discussed and I'm sure analogous comments when the roles became reversed would have been eagerly reported. As for the Flutie-Johnson part, I don't know, but it seems a reasonable description of the support. However, I don't remember any players actually saying anything publically (but it was long ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts