2025 bills by the numbers

[colin]

I'm a chatty cathy and a bit of a peter poster, but i almost never start threads.

 

I was doing a lil lookly loo into the numbers and while i love the inside baseball part of football and all the match ups and esoterica and such, just like in the real world, the bigger picture is very often the clearer one.

 

since 2023 the bills average .12 EPA per drop back on the road and .25 at home.  .12 is decent, .25 is elite.  in the playoffs our epa per play on O is like .2, which is shockingly good.

 

our expected record this season is 6.8 -4.2, so just about exactly how the games have turned out.

 

we lost 4 games, all of which we were strong to very strong favorites in.  it is my belief that the handicappers get it right much much more than they get it wrong, so we lost 4 games we shoulda won, two we were mad favorites in (NE and the fish on the road, 6.5-9pt favs in both), one that was slight (3.5 vs atl) and last night (5-6pt favs).

 

our team plays a goofy frustrating kind of football, where it looks like we are either brilliant or useless, on both d and o, but frankly that's the modern nfl.  everyone plays the analysis game and does the things that give them their best advantage even if it's not entirely their team's "identity" so it doesn't look like the kgun bills o or the 85 bears d because all teams mix coverage, formations on o, and teams all go nickel and dime way more often than before on d.  nfl football is high level rock paper scissors with athletes and emotions and execution mixed in to muddy it up.

 

now, if i step away from my beloved minutia and numbers, and look at what counts the most, it's a really clear picture.

 

we are a bad road team.

 

we dropped 4 of 11 this season, 3 on the road.  atl was a kinda tough game for us at the time, but we took a huge dump there.  miami was the same thing, in the end the d epa was atrocious, but the o is what we lean on and it sucked.  3 TOs kills us every time except for tampa where we forced two ourselves and allen went super sayan.  houston was our only negative O performance of the season where we had a positive D and special teams (and only 1 of 4 games where we had a net positive d and special teams) and boy was it negative vs what we can do.  the only games we've been in where any offense has been worse than ours was last night was carolina and the jests, just like the houston game that was vs back up qbs (altho tyrod is better than fields was vs the jets, they just suck).  the jets and the panthers were the only offenses who played worse than ours did vs houston, although the saints were nearly as cheeks.

 

we have two wins on the road, one was at the jets who suck and it was a bills crowd, and vs the back up qb panthers, where it was also a bills crowd.

 

5 road teams, 3 losses, our only 3 negative epa games on o (turnovers).  two wins vs basically back up qbs (the o was good in those games tho).

 

 

 

we lose when we turn the ball over

we snuck a win over tampa with 3 turnovers, but we got 2 of our own and as said before the passing game caught fire and allen when he's on sets and then breaks nfl records.

in our 4 losses, we have 11 turnovers, and the real number is worse than that because we also got stopped a few times going for it on 4th down.  we are -8 in those 4 losses.

 

we would be better with a better run d, we'd be better with more talent than the 31st or 32nd WR room in the nfl, we'd be better if we didn't have all these bad injuries stacked up on the DL and CB in particular, we'd be better if our coaches made better adjustments (i will say, when mcd calls the d, the second half adjustments are elite tho).  we'd be better if we didn't overpay to extend good to really good players (benford, groot, shakir) and meh to good players (milano, knox, taron, bernard) at the cost of playing rookie contract guys who are close as makes no difference or even better than them at times and having resources to bring in a couple elite guys.  we'd be better if we brought in healthy and impact guys (bosa has been impact, but his had is a club, so even tho he's playing he's not healthy).  and we'd be way better if we found religion and didn't play down to our opponents (saints and miami in home wins, atl, hou, and miami in road losses).

 

all of that comes out in the wash vs the things we actually do well to make us a top team.  

 

we aren't leading the division and vying for the one seed for the simple reasons above -- we suck the bag on the road and we turn the ball over in the games we lose.

 

we are like 1 or 2 games over 500 on the road since 2023, and we've never won a road playoff game.

 

it's as simple as that.

[IYKYK]

1 minute ago, colin said:

I'm a chatty cathy and a bit of a peter poster, but i almost never start threads.

 

I was doing a lil lookly loo into the numbers and while i love the inside baseball part of football and all the match ups and esoterica and such, just like in the real world, the bigger picture is very often the clearer one.

 

since 2023 the bills average .12 EPA per drop back on the road and .25 at home.  .12 is decent, .25 is elite.  in the playoffs our epa per play on O is like .2, which is shockingly good.

 

our expected record this season is 6.8 -4.2, so just about exactly how the games have turned out.

 

we lost 4 games, all of which we were strong to very strong favorites in.  it is my belief that the handicappers get it right much much more than they get it wrong, so we lost 4 games we shoulda won, two we were mad favorites in (NE and the fish on the road, 6.5-9pt favs in both), one that was slight (3.5 vs atl) and last night (5-6pt favs).

 

our team plays a goofy frustrating kind of football, where it looks like we are either brilliant or useless, on both d and o, but frankly that's the modern nfl.  everyone plays the analysis game and does the things that give them their best advantage even if it's not entirely their team's "identity" so it doesn't look like the kgun bills o or the 85 bears d because all teams mix coverage, formations on o, and teams all go nickel and dime way more often than before on d.  nfl football is high level rock paper scissors with athletes and emotions and execution mixed in to muddy it up.

 

now, if i step away from my beloved minutia and numbers, and look at what counts the most, it's a really clear picture.

 

we are a bad road team.

 

we dropped 4 of 11 this season, 3 on the road.  atl was a kinda tough game for us at the time, but we took a huge dump there.  miami was the same thing, in the end the d epa was atrocious, but the o is what we lean on and it sucked.  3 TOs kills us every time except for tampa where we forced two ourselves and allen went super sayan.  houston was our only negative O performance of the season where we had a positive D and special teams (and only 1 of 4 games where we had a net positive d and special teams) and boy was it negative vs what we can do.  the only games we've been in where any offense has been worse than ours was last night was carolina and the jests, just like the houston game that was vs back up qbs (altho tyrod is better than fields was vs the jets, they just suck).  the jets and the panthers were the only offenses who played worse than ours did vs houston, although the saints were nearly as cheeks.

 

we have two wins on the road, one was at the jets who suck and it was a bills crowd, and vs the back up qb panthers, where it was also a bills crowd.

 

5 road teams, 3 losses, our only 3 negative epa games on o (turnovers).  two wins vs basically back up qbs (the o was good in those games tho).

 

 

 

we lose when we turn the ball over

we snuck a win over tampa with 3 turnovers, but we got 2 of our own and as said before the passing game caught fire and allen when he's on sets and then breaks nfl records.

in our 4 losses, we have 11 turnovers, and the real number is worse than that because we also got stopped a few times going for it on 4th down.  we are -8 in those 4 losses.

 

we would be better with a better run d, we'd be better with more talent than the 31st or 32nd WR room in the nfl, we'd be better if we didn't have all these bad injuries stacked up on the DL and CB in particular, we'd be better if our coaches made better adjustments (i will say, when mcd calls the d, the second half adjustments are elite tho).  we'd be better if we didn't overpay to extend good to really good players (benford, groot, shakir) and meh to good players (milano, knox, taron, bernard) at the cost of playing rookie contract guys who are close as makes no difference or even better than them at times and having resources to bring in a couple elite guys.  we'd be better if we brought in healthy and impact guys (bosa has been impact, but his had is a club, so even tho he's playing he's not healthy).  and we'd be way better if we found religion and didn't play down to our opponents (saints and miami in home wins, atl, hou, and miami in road losses).

 

all of that comes out in the wash vs the things we actually do well to make us a top team.  

 

we aren't leading the division and vying for the one seed for the simple reasons above -- we suck the bag on the road and we turn the ball over in the games we lose.

 

we are like 1 or 2 games over 500 on the road since 2023, and we've never won a road playoff game.

 

it's as simple as that.

We are a bad team period 

[colin]

Just now, IYKYK said:

We are a bad team period 

 

nah, we are playing bad after a hot start (and a bunch of injuries) but if we are a bad team, who is a good team?  every team ahead of us in the nfl have losses to lesser teams and sub par performances.  the broncos needed lemmony snickets to beat the freaking giants, indy gave the game away vs pitts, the pats lost to who, the raiders or miami or something early, and needed luck and fortune not to drop back to back games to atl and tampa.

 

we are as good or a better team than every team we lost too, and way better than miami and atl.

[Not at the table Karlos]

6 minutes ago, colin said:

 

nah, we are playing bad after a hot start (and a bunch of injuries) but if we are a bad team, who is a good team?  every team ahead of us in the nfl have losses to lesser teams and sub par performances.  the broncos needed lemmony snickets to beat the freaking giants, indy gave the game away vs pitts, the pats lost to who, the raiders or miami or something early, and needed luck and fortune not to drop back to back games to atl and tampa.

 

we are as good or a better team than every team we lost too, and way better than miami and atl.

Their start wasn’t very hot. They squeaked out wins vs bad teams and have looked a mess the entire year. 

Edited 30 minutes ago by Not at the table Karlos

[colin]

Just now, Not at the table Karlos said:

Their start wasn’t very hot. They squeaked out wins vs bad teams and have looked a mess the entire year. 

 

i dunno, their play is in line w the record (6.8 expected wins vs 7 wins).  the rams, philly, indy, broncos, ne, all squeeked out wins vs bad teams too.

 

we are slightly fewer turnovers or just not sucking so bad on the road from leading the division.

[Virgil]

wtf is a Peter Poster?

[colin]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

wtf is a Peter Poster?

 

if you have to ask it's more than you can afford, pal.

[The Jokeman]

28 minutes ago, IYKYK said:

We are a bad team period 

and yet we've managed to get to 7-4, a testament of good coaching? A good QB? Or both. KC and Baltimore arguably have better rosters but we have a better record, why? 

Edited 11 minutes ago by The Jokeman

[YodaMan79]

Hot start? Against who? Until a couple weeks ago, the teams they beat had a combined total of single-digit wins.

 

I’m done with the injury excuse. Every team deals with injuries, the great ones overcome them.

 

At some point, we have to decide what “good” actually means. To me, good teams impose their will. They force opponents to adjust. They don’t live in a world of ifs and hypotheticals.

That’s not the Bills currently, not the way I see them.

We’re a “good enough” team, always chasing the carrot just out of reach. We soothe ourselves with the same recycled lines: If they were healthy… If Josh had one more second… If he catches that ball… If they recover that fumble…It never ends.

We’re in our Uncle Rico era: “If coach had just put me in, we would’ve won state.”

 

And honestly? Whatever day of the week they’re playing, it isn’t fun to watch right now. It feels like Season 18 of The Walking Dead, just shuffling along, hoping the next episode finally changes something.

 

At some point, the results speak for themselves. There’s no magic quick fix here. A real philosophical shift has to be on the table.

Edited 13 minutes ago by YodaMan79
Changed "we" to "they"- I don't think we're members of the team.

[colin]

5 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

Hot start? Against who? Until a couple weeks ago, the teams they beat had a combined total of single-digit wins.

 

I’m done with the injury excuse. Every team deals with injuries, the great ones overcome them.

 

At some point, we have to decide what “good” actually means. To me, good teams impose their will. They force opponents to adjust. They don’t live in a world of ifs and hypotheticals.

That’s not the Bills currently, not the way I see them.

We’re a “good enough” team, always chasing the carrot just out of reach. We soothe ourselves with the same recycled lines: If they were healthy… If Josh had one more second… If he catches that ball… If they recover that fumble…It never ends.

We’re in our Uncle Rico era: “If coach had just put me in, we would’ve won state.”

 

And honestly? Whatever day of the week they’re playing, it isn’t fun to watch right now. It feels like Season 18 of The Walking Dead, just shuffling along, hoping the next episode finally changes something.

 

At some point, the results speak for themselves. There’s no magic quick fix here. A real philosophical shift has to be on the table.

 

i like to say we because i'm a fan and without the fans there is no anything for the team.  i get they don't care about me, but i don't care about them outside of playing football for my entertainment, so it's even!

 

anyhow, i think i covered most of this -- we aren't fun to watch because modern nfl football is more exciting but more frustrating, and our team might be the most like that in the nfl.  

 

to be clear, i don't think we do it and win the chip this season, or even win the division, but if this silly azz team just figures out to not play bad on the road (honestly, i wonder if the travel arrangements are an issue, remember our guys flew to london late?  stuff like that matters), and honestly if the corches and allen get in their tiny heads that turning over the ball still matters, they can beat anyone we (see what i did there?) will play.

 

i don't expect it to happen, but i find it interesting that the deeper we delve and the more science we have to understand this, john madden was always right and football is a simple thing at the end of the day.