Recession is upon us - disastrous economic data

[Roundybout]

 

 

This is the first real warning bell that the economy is going to hit a downturn. 
 

A cooling economy and high inflation is no bueno 

[JDHillFan]

Just now, Roundybout said:

 

 

This is the first real warning bell that the economy is going to hit a downturn. 
 

A cooling economy and high inflation is no bueno 

Who knows. You might finally be right with one of your doomsday scenarios. So far you are batting .000

[Big Blitz]

And the market reacts to the inflation report:

 

 

 

[RiotAct]

any day now there’s going to be a big crash!

[Big Blitz]

 

[Big Blitz]

 

[Homelander]

On 8/2/2024 at 3:59 PM, Big Blitz said:

It’s called a recession.

 

@Big Blitz soon won't be able to afford his rent.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

 

The pitch: Keep tariffs high, but extend them 12 months. Give global partners time to lower non-tariff barriers, adjust their economies, and stabilize supply chains without lifting pressure. It’s a reset button with a timer.

 

Uncertainty is a drag on GDP: Sløk cites a VAR model showing that a 1 SD rise in policy uncertainty drops GDP by 0.2 pts. More clarity, even under a tough regime, helps business planning, hiring, and markets.

 

The Play: $400 billion/year in tariff revenue. That’s not nothing. It’s a de facto tax on global trade partners that offsets deficits and boosts U.S. leverage.

 

The idea isn’t to end tariffs. It’s to normalize them and use the certainty to force foreign economies to adapt, not retaliate. Risky? Yes.
 

But shrewd and smart? Absolutely.

 

This isn’t a temporary negotiating bluff. We've written about this several times and agree with Sløk. It’s a paradigm shift in how tariffs are used, as fiscal tools, not just trade weapons. Trump may be playing a longer game than people think.