THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Bills Move On

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

We were traveling and tonight I finally had the chance to watch the entire game.

 

This seems like a reasonable thread to toss in my $0.02:

0) We won.  We won.  We Won!

1) The Bills D was more porous than I expected, overall.  They were chasing Wilson around the backfield like a headless chicken most of the game, but there were some throws to be made if Wilson had been able to make them (he also got a few circus catches from his receivers)

2) The Bills WR corps was worse than I was expecting.  From the announcers, who I’d listened to, I expected a horrible performance from Allen.  Instead, something seems “off” with our WR corps - like they’re distracted and not as sharp as they should be.  Particularly disappointed with Davis.  It’s not like he was being asked to do easy things, but in other games he’s managed to get his feet down, or haul in that ball tossed to him in the backfield, or turn on the afterburners and haul in that deep ball.  I think we definitely need help at WR this off-season

3) ST sucked, and when I say ST, I mostly mean Haack.  OMG all the stuff people were  saying about Haack, and the reality was worse.  Also if the question is “who is our KR/PR going forward?” When the going gets tough and Hyde gets going, it’s pretty clear McKenzie is not the answer.

4) We won.  Onward!

 

 

Nice comments.   I'll respond.  

 

0.  We won.  Yes, and McDermott knows full well that it's ALL about winning.  Style points don't matter, at all. 

 

1.  D was porous.   Yes.  See point 0.  This defense is all about containment, so it doesn't look spectacular.  There weren't many sacks that were classic, collapse the pocket, on guy breaks through and - BAM!!!  

 

2.  I think the weather had the entire passing game out of rhythm, not just Allen.   Everything was less precise, less crisp than we're used to.   And between the cold, the wind and Allen's lasers, there were more drops. 

 

3.  Special teams.  Haack had a bad day.   That's not good, but I'm not fretting until it becomes something regular.   And yes, McDermott's had it with insecure punt returner.   I've said it for a couple of years about McKenzie, and his adventures a week or two ago were, I think, the last straw.  As I wrote a month ago, the most important thing about punt returning is ball securing, and whatever is the second most important thing isn't important at all.  Hyde is the guy who has to be back there. 

[DrPJax]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:56 AM, WhoTom said:

Nice post, Shaw. Spot on regarding the passing vs running against the wind. This is one reason I have mixed feelings about Daboll's play-calling. In Josh's first couple of years, the plays were designed to gradually build his confidence, use the skills he had, and mask his deficiencies. Now that he's evolved into an elite QB, I question whether Daboll knows how to utilize him to the fullest. Some people are great at development but not so good at follow-through. It may be good for both Daboll and the Bills if he moved on to a HC position.

 

Just not Miami, please.

 

 

Actually , you know a good fit for Daboll would be Jacksonville.  Pretty good d already in place.  They already have a franchise qb who like Allen did , needs development.     The weather is always great for a passing offense.   Plus he  would  not be in the same division as Mcd and Beane and he would be in sec country where he could get inside info from his guy Saban.   The players are calling for a guy who will respectfully treat players, not insult them and kick them like my man Urban.    I can’t see Daboll going to the fins.  Who would go to an organization with questions at qb , and they fire a guy after a 7-8 game winning streak and after sweeping the Pats ?!   Seems crazy to put your first head coaching future in the hands of owners who appear to not know what they want !  I am not a huge fan of Kahn as the Jax owner compared to weaver who was very good.   But I think Daboll would be given more time to develop in Jax and I just think it’s huge to be in a different division than the Bills.   Will be interesting to see if the jags make an offer.  
 

i am a big believer there comes a time for a new message or new delivery In the progression of NFL teams. Happens to all bit a few teams  ( Tomlin , BB  are exceptions) I think Josh might become a better qb  with new input.  The offense at times has become stagnant ( the ints are a concern and it easily could have been more as there have been several dropped ints just like the last Pats game ) and despite a great point differential, I don’t think you can win a Super Bowl without a decent run game.  Perhaps someone  not so pass obsessed might be a good progression to help extend joshs career.  
 

The play calling Shaw mentioned about Daboll refusing to run going into the wind , along with calls like throwing to Dawkins on first and goal from the one when motor was running well is the kind of play calling I think is becoming a detriment. It’s never predictable what type of game Daboll will call and the talent is here to be well rounded and not so one dimensional in frequent games. Daboll can be very creative at times , but then there are whole games ( jags) where he just had a vanilla plan and he never adapted.  It’s not our call.  If he get a job he’s gone , so it’s not calling for him to be fired.   Yet if he does leave, I believe it could be a positive in the long run. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, DrPJax said:

i am a big believer there comes a time for a new message or new delivery In the progression of NFL teams. Happens to all bit a few teams  ( Tomlin , BB  are exceptions) I think Josh might become a better qb  with new input.  The offense at times has become stagnant ( the ints are a concern and it easily could have been more as there have been several dropped ints just like the last Pats game ) and despite a great point differential, I don’t think you can win a Super Bowl without a decent run game.  Perhaps someone  not so pass obsessed might be a good progression to help extend joshs career.  
 

The play calling Shaw mentioned about Daboll refusing to run going into the wind , along with calls like throwing to Dawkins on first and goal from the one when motor was running well is the kind of play calling I think is becoming a detriment. It’s never predictable what type of game Daboll will call and the talent is here to be well rounded and not so one dimensional in frequent games. Daboll can be very creative at times , but then there are whole games ( jags) where he just had a vanilla plan and he never adapted.  It’s not our call.  If he get a job he’s gone , so it’s not calling for him to be fired.   Yet if he does leave, I believe it could be a positive in the long run. 

I agree with pretty much all of this.  I'm not convinced Daboll is the offensive guru I'd want for the Bills long term.  Of course, if he isn't, why would a GM want to hire him as the HC?   

 

I hope he goes.  I don't dislike him, and if he's the OC in Buffalo for the next ten years, I'm okay with it.  He'll grow.  But, like you, I would like someone who can change gears better, both from week to week and within games.  

 

But I will add that I certainly don't know what I'm talking about.   McDermott knows whether what we're saying is accurate or not, and he and Beane are the ones who will decide whether to keep him if he doesn't leave for another job. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:56 AM, WhoTom said:

Nice post, Shaw. Spot on regarding the passing vs running against the wind. This is one reason I have mixed feelings about Daboll's play-calling. In Josh's first couple of years, the plays were designed to gradually build his confidence, use the skills he had, and mask his deficiencies. Now that he's evolved into an elite QB, I question whether Daboll knows how to utilize him to the fullest. Some people are great at development but not so good at follow-through. It may be good for both Daboll and the Bills if he moved on to a HC position.

 

Just not Miami, please.

 

 

Is Dabol oblivious to weather conditions?  Was he calling plays from "upstairs" and didnt realize how bad the wind was.  Very perplexing.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Is Dabol oblivious to weather conditions?  Was he calling plays from "upstairs" and didnt realize how bad the wind was.  Very perplexing.

McDermott was on the field and he's the head coach.   Seems to me that by early in the third quarter, McD should have told Daboll that he wanted to run on every first and second down, and run on every third down under 8 yards to go.   Just run it.   Third and seven, it was no better than 50-50 that they'd complete a pass downfield.   It was probably close to 50-50 if they ran it.   Plus, on the half of plays when they don't make it, running means they can burn another 40 seconds off the clock.  They should have been burning two minutes every three downs.  In a game like that, there should be a high priority on reducing the number of possessions the opponent gets with wind.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

McDermott was on the field and he's the head coach.   Seems to me that by early in the third quarter, McD should have told Daboll that he wanted to run on every first and second down, and run on every third down under 8 yards to go.   Just run it.   Third and seven, it was no better than 50-50 that they'd complete a pass downfield.   It was probably close to 50-50 if they ran it.   Plus, on the half of plays when they don't make it, running means they can burn another 40 seconds off the clock.  They should have been burning two minutes every three downs.  In a game like that, there should be a high priority on reducing the number of possessions the opponent gets with wind.  

Agree with Mcd on being HC and taking overall responsibility.  If I recall, didn't about 6-7 games ago Frazier on defense was slow to make adjustments and then McD supposedly intervened and "requested" a change and the defense improved to end the game.  McD should have done the same thing with Dabol in Pats game #1 but not throwing the ball until the very end.

[transplantbillsfan]

Shaw I always appreciate these, but I have to disagree about Allen looking bad. There were multiple drops and multiple plays of miscommunication between him and the WRs.

 

So what doesn't Allen do?

 

Just like in the Falcons game where the passing game doesn't work he runs the ball and (clearly) audibles into some RB runs for a run game that's finally working.

 

His completion percentage may have sucked, but he didn't turn the ball over and passed for 2 TDs that were nearly 3. I love the neglect of Allen right now. Pro Bowl snub. Doubt he gets a vote for MVP or All-pro.

 

This is the type of thing I can see driving him in the playoffs. And I hope it gives him absolutely no hesitation to run the ball when he should... which will likely happen a lot on Saturday alone.

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Shaw I always appreciate these, but I have to disagree about Allen looking bad. There were multiple drops and multiple plays of miscommunication between him and the WRs.

 

So what doesn't Allen do?

 

Just like in the Falcons game where the passing game doesn't work he runs the ball and (clearly) audibles into some RB runs for a run game that's finally working.

 

His completion percentage may have sucked, but he didn't turn the ball over and passed for 2 TDs that were nearly 3. I love the neglect of Allen right now. Pro Bowl snub. Doubt he gets a vote for MVP or All-pro.

 

This is the type of thing I can see driving him in the playoffs. And I hope it gives him absolutely no hesitation to run the ball when he should... which will likely happen a lot on Saturday alone.

Read more carefully, my friend.   I gave Allen credit of plenty of good throws and and for his running.  I asked the question did Allen off an off day or was it the wind?  And I answered it by saying I thought it was the wind.  

 

And Allen DID look bad.  He threw a lot of balls that looked ugly.   Because of the wind.  

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Read more carefully, my friend.   I gave Allen credit of plenty of good throws and and for his running.  I asked the question did Allen off an off day or was it the wind?  And I answered it by saying I thought it was the wind.  

 

And Allen DID look bad.  He threw a lot of balls that looked ugly.   Because of the wind.  

 

The only ball I can really recall that was really ugly was an overthrow on a wide open deep ball.

 

What you said was this: "For large stretches of the game, the Bills’ offense looked pretty bad.  Well, let’s say for large stretches of the game, Josh Allen looked pretty bad."

 

You don't think that sounds like a generally damning statement on Allen? And yes, I know you mention the wind next... but everybody knew wind was a factor. Just like everybody knew wind was a factor against the Patriots in Orchard Park on MNF. Yet Allen consistently delivered the football to his receivers in BOTH games. I don't even agree with the premise that going against the wind was a problem. Allen did it pretty successfully in the 4th quarter of that Patriots game and generally against the Jets as well.

 

But I saw dropped pass after dropped pass after miscommunication after miscommunication.

 

Yes you might be right that we should've just started running because that was what worked rather than passing... but if that's the case, maybe we need to consider revamping out passing weapons Allen throws the ball to, because there were way too many game altering plays left on the field by our pass catchers... not Allen.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The only ball I can really recall that was really ugly was an overthrow on a wide open deep ball.

 

What you said was this: "For large stretches of the game, the Bills’ offense looked pretty bad.  Well, let’s say for large stretches of the game, Josh Allen looked pretty bad."

 

You don't think that sounds like a generally damning statement on Allen? And yes, I know you mention the wind next... but everybody knew wind was a factor. Just like everybody knew wind was a factor against the Patriots in Orchard Park on MNF. Yet Allen consistently delivered the football to his receivers in BOTH games. I don't even agree with the premise that going against the wind was a problem. Allen did it pretty successfully in the 4th quarter of that Patriots game and generally against the Jets as well.

 

But I saw dropped pass after dropped pass after miscommunication after miscommunication.

 

Yes you might be right that we should've just started running because that was what worked rather than passing... but if that's the case, maybe we need to consider revamping out passing weapons Allen throws the ball to, because there were way too many game altering plays left on the field by our pass catchers... not Allen.

I think if you could talk frankly to with Allen and the pass catchers, they would tell you that their timing was off all night, because Allen was throwing the ball at higher velocity than he normally does.   He was humming it all night against the wind, because fastballs aren't affected by the wind as much as touch passes.   The result of that was that balls often arrived early, and that's why the receivers had balls going through their hands.   There also were a few, maybe four or five, passes that arrived just as the receiver was turning for the ball, so the receiver never had time to locate it.  The ball just whizzed by before the receiver could make any kind of play.  

 

These guys have worked on their timing all season, and it's hard, if not impossible, for the receivers to make minor changes in how they run their routes because for two quarters in one game the timing is disrupted.  Josh was the one who was changing the timing, for good reason.  

 

I don't have any complaints about how Allen played in the game.  He was, as he usually is, the dominant player on the field.  As I continue to see the touchdown pass to Diggs, for example, it occurs to me that Allen may be the only QB in the league who makes the scramble, survives the hit and delivers the ball to the perfect place.  His runs were critical to the team's offensive success. 

 

And I stand with what I said - for large parts of the game he "looked" pretty bad.  I didn't say he had a bad game.   It's pretty clear that what I said was that the Bills made a bad tactical decision, trying to pass into the win as much as they did.   

 

[Shaw66]

18 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Agree with Mcd on being HC and taking overall responsibility.  If I recall, didn't about 6-7 games ago Frazier on defense was slow to make adjustments and then McD supposedly intervened and "requested" a change and the defense improved to end the game.  McD should have done the same thing with Dabol in Pats game #1 but not throwing the ball until the very end.

I remember when people said that happened with Frazier.  I never saw McD talking to Frazier, and I've always simply taken it as true that it happened.  It was clear, however, that for some reason the defensive strategy changed in the second half of that game. 

 

From a management point of view, McD is in a tough place on issues like this.  McD's job is to delegate, and he takes his job seriously.   He tells his coordinators what their objectives are, and he has to trust them to achieve their objectives.   He can't keep second guessing decisions the coordinators make; if he does, they can't grow and develop into the kind of coordinators McD wants.  So, it may be that McD intentionally kept his mouth shut, intentionally didn't intervene and tell Daboll to run the ball.  After all, it's not like Daboll didn't know the situation.   The best way to run the clock was to get first downs, and it's Daboll's job to figure out how to get first downs.  So, maybe McDermott thought, maybe even said to Daboll, "I'm not telling you what to do - just get me some first downs."  Maybe McD let Daboll sink or swim on this one.  Maybe McD concludes from this episode that his OC's judgment just isn't as good as McD needs it to be.   Or maybe McD uses it as a teaching moment, lets it be part of Daboll's continuous improvement.  

 

Maybe McD wasn't worried.  Maybe he was confident that his D would stop the Jets, even when they had the wind with them, and that his offense could score enough in two quarters to win the game.  

 

It's the kind of decision McD probably never will discuss publicly, but I love to hear him talk about it.  It's a good example of how difficult, and how nuanced, the head coach's job is.  All I know is from where I was sitting in the stadium, if I'd had a head set, I would have been saying, forcefully, "Get me out of this quarter as fast as you can.  Do not, I repeat, do not stop the clock."