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McDermott Has Evolved


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5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He's right, it's not believable. 

 

We scored as many points as they did. We held them to as few points as we had managed. It would have been even odds, probably we'd have been favored a bit, as we were in the game.

Hes wrong according to any of those advanced metrics sites...granted everyone is free to take that with a grain of salt lol they had odds of us winning if we went for it at 63% and odds of winning if we kicked the fg at 42%.  The team that can move the ball in the red zone as well as the home team gets a big edge in ot. 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He's right, it's not believable. 

 

We scored as many points as they did. We held them to as few points as we had managed. It would have been even odds, probably we'd have been favored a bit, as we were in the game.

 

And yet again, the reason sneaks succeed at such a high rate is that teams aren't ready for them, one of the 1-gaps is empty. In this situation that play was absolutely not an 80 - 90% chance. Not even close.

We have ran many sneaks where everyone and their mother knew they were coming and Josh has converted all but one which was a bad snap.  4th and a full yard i would absolutely agree with you.  The thing that irks me is that if we ran any other play and didn't convert absolutely everyone that follows football would say 'you have josh allen how do you not sneak it there'

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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18 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

We have ran many sneaks where everyone and their mother knew they were coming and Josh has converted all but one which was a bad snap.  4th and a full yard i would absolutely agree with you.  The thing that irks me is that if we ran any other play and didn't convert absolutely everyone that follows football would say 'you have josh allen how do you not sneak it there'

 

 

We have not run many sneaks when the D was going with two 1-techs.

 

By far most of our sneaks came with one empty 1-gap.

 

And yeah, if we had done something else people would have said that. Beside the point. When the D has three guys crammed into the middle there, there is a weakness somewhere else.

25 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Hes wrong according to any of those advanced metrics sites...granted everyone is free to take that with a grain of salt lol they had odds of us winning if we went for it at 63% and odds of winning if we kicked the fg at 42%.  The team that can move the ball in the red zone as well as the home team gets a big edge in ot. 

 

 

I would answer this but I already did just above. Look for the post that mentions Matt Damon, directly above the post you just replied to. If you look at all situations sneaks have a high percentage of success. If you look only at bad situations - and this was a bad situation for a sneak - the percentage is much lower.

 

And the home team is the favorite in most games too. But not this game. The Bills are the better team and the odds would have been even or slightly in the Bills favor. The Bills should have been quite confident they would win it, especially after a rest for the defense before the overtime.

Edited by Thurman#1
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15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We have not run many sneaks when the D was going with two 1-techs.

 

By far most of our sneaks came with one empty 1-gap.

 

And yeah, if we had done something else people would have said that. Beside the point. When the D has three guys crammed into the middle there, there is a weakness somewhere else.

 

 

I would answer this but I already did just above. Look for the post that mentions Matt Damon, directly above the post you just replied to. If you look at all situations sneaks have a high percentage of success. If you look only at bad situations - and this was a bad situation for a sneak - the percentage is much lower.

 

And the home team is the favorite in most games too. But not this game. The Bills are the better team and the odds would have been even or slightly in the Bills favor. The Bills should have been quite confident they would win it, especially after a rest for the defense before the overtime.

Oh yea I saw that after...i wasn't posting those numbers specifically to justify the sneak I just think going for it was the right move in general.  The sneak I personally would defend but I could definitely see the criticism.  I mean the titans offense was only getting more effective as the game went on that's kind of what Derrick henry slamming into you all night does to you.  I really didn't like our chances in OT especially since a good chunk of it comes down to a coin flip.  I am almost certain the titans were scoring a td on their first possession

 It's wild how close we came to picking that first up even with everything going wrong up front I have watched it like 40 times since I ready your post 🤣 glutton for punishment I guess .  We may be a better team overall but we were losing all the important positional matchups in the trenches that become more important as the game extends into ot

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oh yea I saw that after...i wasn't posting those numbers specifically to justify the sneak I just think going for it was the right move in general.  The sneak I personally would defend but I could definitely see the criticism.  I mean the titans offense was only getting more effective as the game went on that's kind of what Derrick henry slamming into you all night does to you.  I really didn't like our chances in OT especially since a good chunk of it comes down to a coin flip.  I am almost certain the titans were scoring a td on their first possession 

 

 

It's a legitimate opinion. Certainly could have happened that way. But if we got the ball the odds were pretty good we'd have scored a TD also. IMO Vegas would have given the Bills a slight advantage for being the better team. Maybe made it pick-em.

 

The rest and stretch-break you get before OT would have played in the Bills favor.

 

I'd have kicked it, and if I went for it, I'd have faked a run into the middle and done something else. Daboll/McDermott apparently called a different play. Wish Josh had gone with it.

Edited by Thurman#1
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5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's a legitimate opinion. Certainly could have happened that way. But if we got the ball the odds were pretty good we'd have scored a TD also. IMO Vegas would have given the Bills a slight advantage for being the better team. Maybe made it pick-em.

 

The rest and stretch-break you get before OT would have played in the Bills favor.

 

I'd have kicked it, and if I went for it, I'd have faked a run into the middle and done something else. Daboll/McDermott apparently called a different play. Wish Josh had gone with it.

I have heard rumblings it was an inside run to the left idk how I feel about that playcall either 🤣 that is just an educated guess though.  I think im too much of a pessimist for discussions like this because I'm just assuming we wouldve lost whatever we did and if we kicked a fg on 4th and inches and Henry marched down and scored a td in ot j wouldve been so much more angry than how the game ended lol

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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