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Crowdsourcing a VORP stat in the NFL.


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As many of you may or may not know, one of the stats that exist in the NBA is VORP or Value over Replacement Player. This stat aims to evaluate how much better a player is than a replacement level at that position. And in the NBA, such a replacement level would be a bench body or player on a minimum contract. 

 

Even though a stat like this would be admittedly limited in a less analytically driven league like the NFL, I believe that a position specific calculation could be achieved in the NFL. However, you would have to first define a “replacement level” player which would likely have a negative impact on applicability. 
 

Is a stat like this possible in the NFL? The utility would be obvious, we could finally have statistical proof that running backs ARE a dime a dozen, and perhaps even delineate the minimum level of QB play necessary to compete for championships, breaking through the Kirk Cousins vs Ryan Tannehill level of play.

 

Any thoughts on something like this?

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
vale -> value spelling
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I’m sure NFL front offices attempt to put something like this together but as you said it’s very hard in football to measure this.  Some positions like QB, RB, K, P you probably could come up with replacement level metrics.  Definitely Kicker and Punter where their jobs don’t really rely on anybody else and are statistically measurable.  Defensive players and Offensive Line would almost be impossible to come up with a replacement level measure.  

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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Could you point to specifically which stat correlates there? There’s a lot on that page.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. A Football Outsiders stat which compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position, then translates that total into yardage. Because DYAR is a total stat, not a rate stat, it helps show the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players. DYAR replaced DPAR as our method for measuring individual players with the publication of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 in July 2008. The method and the computation of replacement level are discussed further here.

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Replacement value stats wouldn't show whether or not RBs are dime a dozen. They would only compare RBs to RBs, not RBs to WRs or other positions. 

 

The point about RBs isn't that some aren't a lot better than others. They are. The point is that RB these days is a lower impact position, and that only the very best ala Chubb have much of an effect on the team as a whole.

 

 

 

 

And FireChans, you might want to correct "Vale" to "Value" in your first sentence for those unfamiliar with this stuff.

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On 3/5/2021 at 1:09 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

I’m sure NFL front offices attempt to put something like this together but as you said it’s very hard in football to measure this.  Some positions like QB, RB, K, P you probably could come up with replacement level metrics.  Definitely Kicker and Punter where their jobs don’t really rely on anybody else and are statistically measurable.  Defensive players and Offensive Line would almost be impossible to come up with a replacement level measure.  

 

PK definitely requires help whether it is a QB or Punter.  When you screw the holder you screw the FG kicker.

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