SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture Dolphins (6-6-0) Proj: 7th Seed So damn close Bills (4-8-0) Proj: 13th Seed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How are the bills even still alive mathematically? How do we beat Baltimore in a 3 way tiebreaker even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: How are the bills even still alive mathematically? How do we beat Baltimore in a 3 way tiebreaker even? I'd say there are all but eliminated. I tried dozens of scenarios and I got no closer than 1 spot out of the WC Now it's all about where you'd like to see other teams place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 2:43 PM, Mango said: I don't think so, but maybe, that was months ago. haha. I did not realize what a difficult schedule Pitt has down the back stretch. I take that back...kinda. They go in as the 2 seed is my guess, but don't clinch home field. Unless they lose to Pitt, and Houston (with an easy stretch) wins out. the Steelers stumbled out of the gate and many were crowing about how the team was dead and gone forever 29 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: How are the bills even still alive mathematically? How do we beat Baltimore in a 3 way tiebreaker even? people on here will still insist they can make the playoffs even with mathematical elimination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: I'd say there are all but eliminated. I tried dozens of scenarios and I got no closer than 1 spot out of the WC Now it's all about where you'd like to see other teams place Would we win a 3 way tiebreaker with Baltimore, Miami, and us or even Baltimore, jags, us assuming we get to 8-8 with 6-6 conference record and Baltimore has the same records for both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, row_33 said: people on here will still insist they can make the playoffs even with mathematical elimination LOL I'm usually one of those people but not now. Sunday officially ended it in my eyes. I'm not pushing this to the last second of week 17 It would have been a dream making it with the Rookie taking over. 1 minute ago, DBilz2500 said: Would we win a 3 way tiebreaker with Baltimore, Miami, and us or even Baltimore, jags, us assuming we get to 8-8 with 6-6 conference record and Baltimore has the same records for both? Miami maybe. Definitely not Baltimore. Baltimore beat the snot out of us week 1. I know I was at that cold rainy game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 (edited) Have you guys really not figured out in our years of doing this that the playoff machine is inaccurate as you get into the more intricate tiebreaker? If Baltimore ends up at 8-8 by losing their last 3 games to AFC teams, the Bills could win the tiebreaker, but it depends on the teams involved. Those teams would basically have to be the Bengals and/or Jags. Edited December 5, 2018 by transplantbillsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 9:37 AM, ShadyBillsFan said: http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture Dolphins (6-6-0) Proj: 7th Seed So damn close Bills (4-8-0) Proj: 13th Seed it's not close when you have to climb over 7 or 8 other teams to get to the 2nd WC spot, just pass Cleveland first.... 16 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: LOL I'm usually one of those people but not now. Sunday officially ended it in my eyes. I'm not pushing this to the last second of week 17 It would have been a dream making it with the Rookie taking over. Miami maybe. Definitely not Baltimore. Baltimore beat the snot out of us week 1. I know I was at that cold rainy game i seriously cannot give a crap about anything the rest of the regular season outside the 4 Bills games I'll watch the playoffs though, but can't spend a second dwelling on the Pats getting a bye or whatever getting really insular here, but i have some modest hope for the next 4 weeks and next season (refusing to wait for the other shoe to drop.... i need this....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Have you guys really not figured out in our years of doing this that the playoff machine is inaccurate as you get into the more intricate tiebreaker? If Baltimore ends up at 8-8 by losing their last 3 games to AFC teams, the Bills could win the tiebreaker, but it depends on the teams involved. Those teams would basically have to be the Bengals and/or Jags. Sounds like we basically need Baltimore to finish out the year 0-4 27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Have you guys really not figured out in our years of doing this that the playoff machine is inaccurate as you get into the more intricate tiebreaker? If Baltimore ends up at 8-8 by losing their last 3 games to AFC teams, the Bills could win the tiebreaker, but it depends on the teams involved. Those teams would basically have to be the Bengals and/or Jags. What if like 5 teams finish out 8-8 how does that work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: Sounds like we basically need Baltimore to finish out the year 0-4 What if like 5 teams finish out 8-8 how does that work? It's a 3 or more team tiebreaker, so the same tiebreaker apply to 5 teams that would for 3. 1st division tiebreakers apply if 2 teams are in the same division (us and Miami, Colts and Titans, Ravens and Bengals), then you go down the list from there. Crazy complications and the playoff machine just misses a lot of them. For example, the reason we lose a 3 team tiebreaker between us, the Ravens and Titans no matter what is because the Titans lost to both us and the Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 it would be more fun if the AFC was like the NFC with so many more opportunities the Chargers (or Chiefs) grabbing one spot have left a lot scrambling for just one WC spot now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: It's a 3 or more team tiebreaker, so the same tiebreaker apply to 5 teams that would for 3. 1st division tiebreakers apply if 2 teams are in the same division (us and Miami, Colts and Titans, Ravens and Bengals), then you go down the list from there. Crazy complications and the playoff machine just misses a lot of them. For example, the reason we lose a 3 team tiebreaker between us, the Ravens and Titans no matter what is because the Titans lost to both us and the Ravens. Lookin at it, A 5 team tiebreaker between those exact teams all at 8-8 might actually get us in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, row_33 said: 1) it's not close when you have to climb over 7 or 8 other teams to get to the 2nd WC spot, just pass Cleveland first.... 2) i seriously cannot give a crap about anything the rest of the regular season outside the 4 Bills games I'll watch the playoffs though, but can't spend a second dwelling on the Pats getting a bye or whatever getting really insular here, but i have some modest hope for the next 4 weeks and next season (refusing to wait for the other shoe to drop.... i need this....) 1) I meant had they won (which was also so close) they would have been closer to the goal 2) As I said after that post..... I am accepting of what is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 53 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: Lookin at it, A 5 team tiebreaker between those exact teams all at 8-8 might actually get us in lol If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Ravens and Colts. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Dolphins, Ravens and/or Colts. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Titans and Ravens. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with the Ravens and the Jags and/or Bengals are somehow in the mix in any manner. Bills could win. If the Bills ended up 8-8 and the Ravens somehow (insanely) lose out and the Bills are there with any combination of the Colts, Titans and Jags. Bills should win because of the divisional tiebreakers applied first. Dolphins it depends on who they lose to, but if they lose to the Patriots this Sunday and then the Bills. Bills win in any tiebreaker with them. We could always root for the Steelers to lose out, which could potentially be a more likely thing to happen than the Ravens losing out. In any case, the Bills can't be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this Sunday if they win, no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Ravens and Colts. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Dolphins, Ravens and/or Colts. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with just the Titans and Ravens. Bills lose. If the Bills ended up 8-8 with the Ravens and the Jags and/or Bengals are somehow in the mix in any manner. Bills could win. If the Bills ended up 8-8 and the Ravens somehow (insanely) lose out and the Bills are there with any combination of the Colts, Titans and Jags. Bills should win because of the divisional tiebreakers applied first. Dolphins it depends on who they lose to, but if they lose to the Patriots this Sunday and then the Bills. Bills win in any tiebreaker with them. We could always root for the Steelers to lose out, which could potentially be a more likely thing to happen than the Ravens losing out. In any case, the Bills can't be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this Sunday if they win, no matter what. Ravens win this weekend would eliminate us cause they would get to 8 wins and 7 AFC wins which we can’t beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: Ravens win this weekend would eliminate us cause they would get to 8 wins and 7 AFC wins which we can’t beat No it wouldn't because if the Ravens then lose their last 3 to AFC opponents, we end up with the same conference record with them, and although they'd obviously beat us in a 2 team tiebreaker, as I was saying if the Jags and/or Bengals happen to also be in a 3 team tiebreaker with the Bills and Ravens, Bills could still win. So no, a Ravens win this weekend does not eliminate us. Also, you're forgetting the Steelers in this mathematical permutation. Even if the Ravens win their next 2 and the Bills can no longer catch them, if the Steelers lose their next 2, the wildcard is still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ravens are 6-3 in AFC, next game is vs AFC team so if they win they get to 7 AFC wins and 8 total wins. We can’t pass them in any tiebreaking scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: Ravens are 6-3 in AFC, next game is vs AFC team so if they win they get to 7 AFC wins and 8 total wins. We can’t pass them in any tiebreaking scenario Sorry you're right, I mixed up my games. I thought the Ravens played the Bucs this Sunday. They play the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Yes, if both the Ravens and Steelers win on Sunday, the Bills are eliminated from playoff contention even if they win. It's the Bucs game that the Ravens are "allowed" to win and the Bills would still be in contention. Edited December 5, 2018 by transplantbillsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Sorry you're right, I mixed up my games. I thought the Ravens played the Bucs this Sunday. They play the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Yes, if both the Ravens and Steelers win on Sunday, the Bills are eliminated from playoff contention even if they win. It's the Bucs game that the Ravens are "allowed" to win and the Bills would still be in contention. If you think about it though if we beat jets and lions at home and get to 6-8 there’s actually a pretty decent chance we are still alive going into NE week 16. Ravens will probably lose at Chiefs and Bucs game in a sense the next week doesn’t matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, DBilz2500 said: If you think about it though if we beat jets and lions at home and get to 6-8 there’s actually a pretty decent chance we are still alive going into NE week 16. Ravens will probably lose at Chiefs and Bucs game in a sense the next week doesn’t matter as much. Agreed. Ravens actually have a tough schedule to close the season. They play on the road against 2 of the probably 5 best teams in the NFL right now. Honestly though, just looking at the Steelers situation right now, I think it's more likely the Steelers lose their last 4 than the Ravens losing 3 of their last 4, all against AFC teams. Yes, I know the Steelers play the Raiders this weekend and a disheveled Bengals team to close the season, but they always seem to play down to their opponents and they're just in shambles right now. For me, I'll root for another week and then another week until official elimination, but by and large Sunday's loss against the Dolphins put us out of any realistic playoff contention. But it'd be fun to go into Christmas Eve Eve playing the Patriots in Foxboro in a "meaningful" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Agreed. Ravens actually have a tough schedule to close the season. They play on the road against 2 of the probably 5 best teams in the NFL right now. Honestly though, just looking at the Steelers situation right now, I think it's more likely the Steelers lose their last 4 than the Ravens losing 3 of their last 4, all against AFC teams. Yes, I know the Steelers play the Raiders this weekend and a disheveled Bengals team to close the season, but they always seem to play down to their opponents and they're just in shambles right now. For me, I'll root for another week and then another week until official elimination, but by and large Sunday's loss against the Dolphins put us out of any realistic playoff contention. But it'd be fun to go into Christmas Eve Eve playing the Patriots in Foxboro in a "meaningful" game. I could easily see Ravens losing at KC and away to the Chargers. Their final game is home against a much improved Cleveland team that could give them a game that final week. We would just need the right combination of teams to be in a tiebreaker with us. Unlikely but not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Can we make it through tomorrow without officially being eliminated? Every week we are not eliminated is a week of technicaly important football. I know playoffs aren’t going to happen but I’ll take as many weeks of still being “alive” as possible. Plus more games with slight meaning will tell us more about Allen then a month of bonus preseason. Go Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: Can we make it through tomorrow without officially being eliminated? Every week we are not eliminated is a week of technicaly important football. I know playoffs aren’t going to happen but I’ll take as many weeks of still being “alive” as possible. Plus more games with slight meaning will tell us more about Allen then a month of bonus preseason. Go Bills I think we will. We should beat the Jets and I’d expect the Ravens to lose at Kansas City to keep us “alive.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, DBilz2500 said: I think we will. We should beat the Jets and I’d expect the Ravens to lose at Kansas City to keep us “alive.” There is a way we can stay alive with a ravens win. The Steelers losing out is a forgotten Avenue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: There is a way we can stay alive with a ravens win. The Steelers losing out is a forgotten Avenue You are right but it’s an even more unlikely avenue: best route in is Ravens lose to KC, SD and Browns last game of season, we win out, and then we get into a 3 or more team tiebreaker that doesn’t factor in our head to head lose to Ravens. That’s most likely way in that I see it but there’s plenty of other scenarios as well. Be fun to still be alive going into Foxboro day before Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: You are right but it’s an even more unlikely avenue: best route in is Ravens lose to KC, SD and Browns last game of season, we win out, and then we get into a 3 or more team tiebreaker that doesn’t factor in our head to head lose to Ravens. That’s most likely way in that I see it but there’s plenty of other scenarios as well. Be fun to still be alive going into Foxboro day before Christmas Eve. Yeah hopefully Bills win and ravens and Steelers both lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: Yeah hopefully Bills win and ravens and Steelers both lose That would be really nice and Colts and broncos losing too would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: That would be really nice and Colts and broncos losing too would be nice I know it’s going to ultimately end up going nowhere, but the offseason is way to long. If we can get to the end of the Pats game without being eliminated..I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I know it’s going to ultimately end up going nowhere, but the offseason is way to long. If we can get to the end of the Pats game without being eliminated..I’ll take it Exactly where I am at right now. Be amazing if we could get to week 17 at 7-8 and still have a chance to get in needing a win and a few other teams to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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