GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: This isn't about any other QB. You were making the case the Bills horrid offensive numbers should be laid at the feet of Peterman. I posted something to show that was not the case. It's just a historically bad offense for several reasons including bad QB play. The tweet you posted? The one I responded to? Right there at the top, in all caps, it says 'LAST'. Meaning it's kind of assumed it's about other QBs...you know, for comparison's sake. You know...the point you were trying to make. ...you do understand how weird it is to post statistics that very literally are comparing QBs against each other, and then tell someone who responds with the exact type of comparison that it 'isn't about any other QB?, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: The tweet you posted? The one I responded to? Right there at the top, in all caps, it says 'LAST'. Meaning it's kind of assumed it's about other QBs...you know, for comparison's sake. You know...the point you were trying to make. ...you do understand how weird it is to post statistics that very literally are comparing QBs against each other, and then tell someone who responds with the exact type of comparison that it 'isn't about any other QB?, right? That wasn't the point. You wanted to blame the putrid offensive numbers on Peterman and I posted that to show it wasn't on him. You then shifted the subject to other QBs. Good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: That wasn't the point. You wanted to blame the putrid offensive numbers on Peterman and I posted that to show it wasn't on him. You then shifted the subject to other QBs. Good one. We were talking about the offense. We agree it's bad. I said Peterman contributed to that. You posted some passing stats that Allen ranks last in. I posted a few that he doesn't. You said this isn't about any other QB. I said you just compared him to other QBs. You said I shifted the subject to other QBs. I wrote this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: We were talking about the offense. We agree it's bad. I said Peterman contributed to that. You posted some passing stats that Allen ranks last in. I posted a few that he doesn't. You said this isn't about any other QB. I said you just compared him to other QBs. You said I shifted the subject to other QBs. I wrote this post. This is what I posted along with the tweet "If it helps you sleep at night, then blame it on Peterman and tell yourself that the Bills aren't the worst." Which kept it on the subject that you tried to blame on Peterman. Again, you shifted topics by bringing up other QBs who didn't have jack to do with your reasoning for why the Bills' numbers are so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: This is what I posted along with the tweet "If it helps you sleep at night, then blame it on Peterman and tell yourself that the Bills aren't the worst." Which kept it on the subject that you tried to blame on Peterman. Again, you shifted topics by bringing up other QBs who didn't have jack to do with your reasoning for why the Bills' numbers are so bad. Do you deny that Peterman has negatively affected the Bills' offensive statistics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: Do you deny that Peterman has negatively affected the Bills' offensive statistics? Do you even need to ask that question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Do you even need to ask that question? I think it bears repeating- out of Buffalo's 201 passing attempts this season, Peterman accounts for 30 of them. That's not an insignificant sample...it's large enough for me to justify saying he shares responsibility for the passing offense's poor statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 (edited) 23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I think it bears repeating- out of Buffalo's 201 passing attempts this season, Peterman accounts for 30 of them. That's not an insignificant sample...it's large enough for me to justify saying he shares responsibility for the passing offense's poor statistics. No kidding?!? Back to the original point of the BIlls' offense being off to the worst start through seven games in modern history. From the ESPN+ article by FBO: Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings break down every play individually, looking for success based on down and distance, and adjusting based on situation and opponent. We've broken down play-by-play going back to the 1986 season, giving us 33 years of NFL history to analyze. After their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis, the Bills now come out as 53.2 percent less efficient than the average team this year. That's the worst offense we've ever tracked through seven games. One of the important aspects of DVOA is that every year is normalized so the average team is zero. That helps put Buffalo's offensive impotence into the context of all the rule changes and strategic advances that have given 2018 the most offense-friendly environment in NFL history. Right now, the entire league is averaging 363 yards per game, which would easily surpass the previous record of 350. Buffalo is averaging just 234 yards per game, over one-third less than the league average. No team has had an average that low since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers ... but in a season in which the league average was just 316 yards per game. Edited October 25, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said: No kidding?!? Back to the original point of the BIlls' offense being off to the worst start through seven games in modern history. From the ESPN+ article by FBO: Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings break down every play individually, looking for success based on down and distance, and adjusting based on situation and opponent. We've broken down play-by-play going back to the 1986 season, giving us 33 years of NFL history to analyze. After their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis, the Bills now come out as 53.2 percent less efficient than the average team this year. That's the worst offense we've ever tracked through seven games. One of the important aspects of DVOA is that every year is normalized so the average team is zero. That helps put Buffalo's offensive impotence into the context of all the rule changes and strategic advances that have given 2018 the most offense-friendly environment in NFL history. Right now, the entire league is averaging 363 yards per game, which would easily surpass the previous record of 350. Buffalo is averaging just 234 yards per game, over one-third less than the league average. No team has had an average that low since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers ... but in a season in which the league average was just 316 yards per game. Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234). You clearly don't get the rankings based on DVOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: You clearly don't get the rankings based on DVOA. I don't like DVOA because I can't see how it's calculated. I'm commenting on the last paragraph primarily: trying to explain how historically bad the Bills offense is by using yards per game is strange in a year where they aren't even the worst team in AYPG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I don't like DVOA because I can't see how it's calculated. I'm commenting on the last paragraph primarily: trying to explain how historically bad the Bills offense is by using yards per game is strange in a year where they aren't even the worst team in AYPG. The Bills average 7 plays per game more than the Cardinals for a whopping 14 more yards per game. Which means they average 2 yards per play in those 7 additional plays. The Bills are by far the worst as I originally stated no matter how much you try to dispute it. Edited October 25, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: The Bills average 7 plays per game more than the Cardinals for a whopping 14 more yards per game. Which means they average 2 yards per play in those 7 additional plays. The Bills are by far the worst as I originally stated no matter how much you try to dispute it. If your point is to prove the bolded there are much better statistics than YPG to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: If your point is to prove the bolded there are much better statistics than YPG to use. Yeah. Like the DVOA that is being used here. Now there are better ways than YPG after you used that and I how showed how faulty that is. Edited October 25, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Yeah. Like the DVOA that is being used here. Now there are better ways than YPG after you used that and I how showed how faulty that is. No. Like yards per play, which is what you actually meant. The Cardinals are still worse than the Bills in YPG. Until someone can show me the formula of how DVOA is calculated, it's not really meaningful to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: No. Like yards per play, which is what you actually meant. The Cardinals are still worse than the Bills in YPG. Until someone can show me the formula of how DVOA is calculated, it's not really meaningful to me. You used YPG to say the Cardinals are the worst. "Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234)." I pointed out that it's a faulty way to determine who's worse. You're flopping around worse than a fish like your avatar is holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: You used YPG to say the Cardinals are the worst. "Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234)." I pointed out that it's a faulty way to determine who's worse. You're flopping around worse than a fish like your avatar is holding. Nope. I said FBO (and you, by proxy) should have used a better stat than YPG in the ESPN+ comment you posted to make the case that the Bills are the worst offense of all time, when they aren't even the worst offense by YPG this season. If they had used yards per play I would have less issue with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Nope. I said FBO (and you, by proxy) should have used a better stat than YPG in the ESPN+ comment you posted to make the case that the Bills are the worst offense of all time, when they aren't even the worst offense by YPG this season. If they had used yards per play I would have less issue with it. No. You said exactly what I posted in bold type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: No. You said exactly what I posted in bold type. Yes, and by YPG the Cardinals are the worst offense in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Yes, and by YPG the Cardinals are the worst offense in the league. Very llawed as I already pointed out. Run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Very llawed as I already pointed out. Run with it. I agree, which is why you shouldn't have posted it. I'm trying to help you out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: I agree, which is why you shouldn't have posted it. I'm trying to help you out here. You are hilarious. You posted that not me. "Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234)." Your words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: You are hilarious. You posted that not me. "Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game than the Bills currently (220-234)." Your words. Of course those are my words. They're true. The Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game (your stat, not mine, when you posted the ESPN article referencing FBO) than the Bills this season. Trust me, just go with yards per play. It's a much stronger argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Of course those are my words. They're true. The Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per game (your stat, not mine, when you posted the ESPN article referencing FBO) than the Bills this season. Trust me, just go with yards per play. It's a much stronger argument. Your stat with your words. I never brought up YPG, you did and I called you on it. Either way whether YPP or DVOA the Bills come up as the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Your stat with your words. I never brought up YPG, you did and I called you on it. Either way whether YPP or DVOA the Bills come up as the worst. Wait, do you not remember posting this from ESPN? This was the genesis of the YPG argument. Worst part is it's not even correct! I'm just helping you proofread. . . . 2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: No kidding?!? Back to the original point of the BIlls' offense being off to the worst start through seven games in modern history. From the ESPN+ article by FBO: Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings break down every play individually, looking for success based on down and distance, and adjusting based on situation and opponent. We've broken down play-by-play going back to the 1986 season, giving us 33 years of NFL history to analyze. After their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis, the Bills now come out as 53.2 percent less efficient than the average team this year. That's the worst offense we've ever tracked through seven games. One of the important aspects of DVOA is that every year is normalized so the average team is zero. That helps put Buffalo's offensive impotence into the context of all the rule changes and strategic advances that have given 2018 the most offense-friendly environment in NFL history. Right now, the entire league is averaging 363 yards per game, which would easily surpass the previous record of 350. Buffalo is averaging just 234 yards per game, over one-third less than the league average. No team has had an average that low since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers ... but in a season in which the league average was just 316 yards per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: Wait, do you not remember posting this from ESPN? This was the genesis of the YPG argument. Worst part is it's not even correct! I'm just helping you proofread. DVOA rankings aren't based on raw YPG so I don't know why you even pointed out what was in the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: DVOA rankings aren't based on raw YPG so I don't know why you even pointed out what was in the article. Because it was incorrect. I like to be accurate. Besides, you were using it (the article) to justify the Bills being the worst offense in history, and the entire second paragraph used the Bills' YPG ranking (again, incorrectly) to make their case. That's how we got talking about yards per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: Because it was incorrect. I like to be accurate. Besides, you were using it (the article) to justify the Bills being the worst offense in history, and the entire second paragraph used the Bills' YPG ranking (again, incorrectly) to make their case. That's how we got talking about yards per game. That's how you got talking about it after you looked up the Cards YPG to try and prove they are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: That's how you got talking about it after you looked up the Cards YPG to try and prove they are the worst. Ha! Nope, I already knew about the Cards YPG. I also know about the Bills YPP, which is what that article should have been talking about because that's the real issue with the offense. I like to point to the Cardinals because they are statistically similar to the Bills, offensively, and we don't hear much about how they're the worst offense of all time even though I think they should get just as much stick as us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: Ha! Nope, I already knew about the Cards YPG. I also know about the Bills YPP, which is what that article should have been talking about because that's the real issue with the offense. I like to point to the Cardinals because they are statistically similar to the Bills, offensively, and we don't hear much about how they're the worst offense of all time even though I think they should get just as much stick as us. You should write FBO and tell them their formulas are screwed up even though you admit to not understanding them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: You should write FBO and tell them their formulas are screwed up even though you admit to not understanding them. That's my point! NOBODY understands them because they won't release the formula! They claim it's proprietary but unless I can see how DVOA is calculated how am I supposed to put any faith in it? Same w/ QBR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: That's my point! NOBODY understands them because they won't release the formula! They claim it's proprietary but unless I can see how DVOA is calculated how am I supposed to put any faith in it? Same w/ QBR. The DVOA system is explained here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: The DVOA system is explained here. I've read their explanation before. I want to see the actual formula. I can quibble about passer rating not being the greatest statistic but at least you can see for yourself how they come to their numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: I've read their explanation before. I want to see the actual formula. I can quibble about passer rating not being the greatest statistic but at least you can see for yourself how they come to their numbers. You know that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: You know that's not going to happen. Why not? They can apply for a patent. They don't stand to lose anything by releasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: Why not? They can apply for a patent. They don't stand to lose anything by releasing it. Why should they reveal their secret sauce for others to use and rebrand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: Why should they reveal their secret sauce for others to use and rebrand? It would help fans understand how they're calculating their rankings, for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: It would help fans understand how they're calculating their rankings, for one. Not going to happen. More on why the Bills are the worst. Do you prefer to look at scoring offense? NFL teams are averaging 24.1 points per game. The Bills have less than half that, 11.6 points per game. The Bills are averaging 3.92 yards per play compared with a league average of 5.67. They lead the league with 12 interceptions. They are tied for 29th with 26 sacks, but they lead the league in sack rate. They rank 31st in third-down conversion rate at 27 percent. Rushing the ball? The Bills are a little better there than they are passing, but they still rank 28th with 3.85 yards per carry, and that could easily get worse if LeSean McCoy has to miss time with a head injury suffered in Sunday's loss to the Colts. Is there any advice we could give the Bills to fix things? It's hard to go past just "stop being so terrible," but one fix would be to get more efficient on first downs. Right now, the Bills average just 3.56 yards per play on first down, over a yard less than any other offense. That, in turn, makes the other downs harder. The Bills rank second in the NFL in average needed yards on second down (9.1) and second in average needed yards on third down (8.7). The Bills are struggling so much on offense that they could improve a little bit over the second half of the season and still finish as the worst offense we've ever measured. Here's a look at the other teams they are competing with to stand as legends of futility: the 10 worst offenses ever tracked by DVOA. Edited October 25, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Not going to happen. More on why the Bills are the worst. Do you prefer to look at scoring offense? NFL teams are averaging 24.1 points per game. The Bills have less than half that, 11.6 points per game. The Bills are averaging 3.92 yards per play compared with a league average of 5.67. They lead the league with 12 interceptions. They are tied for 29th with 26 sacks, but they lead the league in sack rate. They rank 31st in third-down conversion rate at 27 percent. Rushing the ball? The Bills are a little better there than they are passing, but they still rank 28th with 3.85 yards per carry, and that could easily get worse if LeSean McCoy has to miss time with a head injury suffered in Sunday's loss to the Colts. Is there any advice we could give the Bills to fix things? It's hard to go past just "stop being so terrible," but one fix would be to get more efficient on first downs. Right now, the Bills average just 3.56 yards per play on first down, over a yard less than any other offense. That, in turn, makes the other downs harder. The Bills rank second in the NFL in average needed yards on second down (9.1) and second in average needed yards on third down (8.7). The Bills are struggling so much on offense that they could improve a little bit over the second half of the season and still finish as the worst offense we've ever measured. Here's a look at the other teams they are competing with to stand as legends of futility: the 10 worst offenses ever tracked by DVOA. How do the Bills rank last in yards per play on first down but second in yards needed on 2nd down? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: How do the Bills rank last in yards per play on first down but second in yards needed on 2nd down? Penalties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts