BadLandsMeanie Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Dingus made a really good post. I may have made it different in my memory but he basically pointed out that they key factor will be how these guys work at their craft once they are here. Can they take the heat? Do they listen and learn, do they keep at it? They are very hard to separate on qualifications. They have have different strengths and weaknesses but these guys are all shaking out as pretty much the same overall in terms of how they rank. You can't know what will happen. But if you look at their personal qualities to see who has a track record of working and focusing and coping with the public and the press and all that, then you have a big advantage in predicting what will happen in the NFL. That being said I do wonder if somebody took all of the main measures like this Q thingy and the rest, and combined them, if it would turn out to be useful. Most of all what I get out of all of this is fear! Because when I think of any other profession or business I can't think of one where a regular fan or hobbyist can have a good chance to beat the combined expertise of the industry in picking the direction of THE mission critical choice. So to say if me and Bumbles get together and design a self landing rocket in our spare time that is just as good as Elon Musk's Maybe a little better. Or we figure out a viable way for surgeons to to repair an area of the brain. And Shaw and HaplessBillsFan design a cool new electric car engine just as good as Toyota's is. You get the picture. The NFL is doing their best but really they are almost as close to guessing as we are. The difference between what they can come up with and what can come up with isn't very big. It isn't like my rocket idea versus Musk's. I hope the Bills guess right! Edited March 31, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 12 hours ago, Wiz said: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016 Interesting Tyrod is not mentioned at all in all those QBs. Guess he wasn't a household name like Marques Tuiasosopo and Dave Ragone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 19 hours ago, BigDingus said: Their breakdown seems weird....just this alone raises tons of red flags - Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017 Player / QBASE: Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 So based on these same metrics, they had Byron Leftwich ahead of Aaron Rodgers & Ben Roethlisberger? Or Carson Palmer above Peyton Manning? I think Mayfield will be good too, but the way they put value on QB's pre-draft projections seems off if these are the results. Darnold having a 52% Bust rating & 4% Elite rating compared to Luke Faulk's 54% & 7%? Wtf is going on there? It goes by college stats...its an imperfect science...people who think there is a 1:1 correlation out there that can be found are only kidding themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaLoko Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 6 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said: Dingus made a really good post. I may have made it different in my memory but he basically pointed out that they key factor will be how these guys work at their craft once they are here. Can they take the heat? Do they listen and learn, do they keep at it? They are very hard to separate on qualifications. They have have different strengths and weaknesses but these guys are all shaking out as pretty much the same overall in terms of how they rank. You can't know what will happen. But if you look at their personal qualities to see who has a track record of working and focusing and coping with the public and the press and all that, then you have a big advantage in predicting what will happen in the NFL. That being said I do wonder if somebody took all of the main measures like this Q thingy and the rest, and combined them, if it would turn out to be useful. Most of all what I get out of all of this is fear! Because when I think of any other profession or business I can't think of one where a regular fan or hobbyist can have a good chance to beat the combined expertise of the industry in picking the direction of THE mission critical choice. So to say if me and Bumbles get together and design a self landing rocket in our spare time that is just as good as Elon Musk's Maybe a little better. Or we figure out a viable way for surgeons to to repair an area of the brain. And Shaw and HaplessBillsFan design a cool new electric car engine just as good as Toyota's is. You get the picture. The NFL is doing their best but really they are almost as close to guessing as we are. The difference between what they can come up with and what can come up with isn't very big. It isn't like my rocket idea versus Musk's. I hope the Bills guess right! Wow man! just wow! if your post about AJ McC, scapulars and all those beliefs in catholicism, weren't enough to make you a hero to me, this analogies amog careers / industries have just pushed the envelope!! thanks or a well thought post again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, matter2003 said: It goes by college stats...its an imperfect science...people who think there is a 1:1 correlation out there that can be found are only kidding themselves. Well if you read the article or some of the posts here you'd see that NO ONE, including the people who wrote the art I cle, thinks there's an1-1 correlation. 19 minutes ago, BuffaLoko said: Wow man! just wow! if your post about AJ McC, scapulars and all those beliefs in catholicism, weren't enough to make you a hero to me, this analogies amog careers / industries have just pushed the envelope!! thanks or a well thought post again! I missed all of that. Scapulars? I'll have to come here more often. As for Meanie's post, I do think the pros are several steps ahead of us when it comes to guessing. The problem in the qb department is that if your team needs a qb, you have to take chances on guys. On a Losman, an Edwards, a Manuel. You have take someone. The simple fact is that it appears that there are only ten or twelve guys on the planet who can really master the position and there are 32 teams looking for QB's. So they take guys hoping they're own evaluation turns to be wrong. Edited March 31, 2018 by Shaw66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I get that the points are supposed to be an indicator, but I found the percentages for each QB to be pretty interesting. They also give a very rosy picture of Mayfield's future pro career. Mayfield might be the most likely QB to end up as a Buffalo Bill, particularly if Buffalo trades up, but if they don't get Mayfield, the rest of the crop has mixed prognostications. Rosen is the next best with a bust risk percentage of 46.9% and a 10.4% chance of elite status. I don't think there is any chance of Rosen ending up as a Bill. Darnold has a bust risk of just over 50% (51.9%), but has among the lowest chances of an elite career at 4.1%. Going on down the list, Josh Allen has a very high (62.7% risk of busting, but his elite chances are a bit higher than Darnold's at 5.2%. Lamar Jackson, who had a pretty disappointing pro day by some accounts, makes out pretty well in this evaluation with the second lowest bust risk after Mayfield at 46.2%, and the third highest chances of elite status at 8.5%. Mason Rudolph and Kyle Lauletta are pretty comparable to each other with a bust risk in the mid 50% range and an elite chance in the middle between 5 and 6%. Lastly, Luke Falk ranks closest to Rudolph and Lauletta in terms of bust risk, and a bit better than those two in his elite chances. I can't come up with one ranking by incorporating elite and bust percentages, but if I do two separate rankings, it looks like this: Bust risk (least to greatest) or highest floor: Mayfield Jackson Rosen Darnold Rudolph Falk Lauletta Allen Elite potential (greatest to least) or highest ceiling: Mayfield Rosen Jackson Falk Rudolph Lauletta Allen Darnold Now NFL teams aren't likely to pay much attention to Football Outsiders on this, but if you think it has merit, you'll be glad to see Darnold off the board at the top of the draft and Allen in that same area. If the Jets get Rosen (their much rumored target) they look to be in decent shape. Mayfield appears to be far and away the best prospect in the draft by these numbers (as well as the points) and should be available in the 4 to 6 range with Denver rumored to be enamored with Rudolph. After that Jackson looks like a decent prospect despite his less than impressive pro day. Falk, Rudolph and Lauletta don't have great numbers, but they're all in kind of the same territory. If you like one of them, you have your reasons. If that's who is left when you're picking, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky Diver Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 6 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said: Dingus made a really good post. I may have made it different in my memory but he basically pointed out that they key factor will be how these guys work at their craft once they are here. Can they take the heat? Do they listen and learn, do they keep at it? They are very hard to separate on qualifications. They have have different strengths and weaknesses but these guys are all shaking out as pretty much the same overall in terms of how they rank. You can't know what will happen. But if you look at their personal qualities to see who has a track record of working and focusing and coping with the public and the press and all that, then you have a big advantage in predicting what will happen in the NFL. That being said I do wonder if somebody took all of the main measures like this Q thingy and the rest, and combined them, if it would turn out to be useful. Most of all what I get out of all of this is fear! Because when I think of any other profession or business I can't think of one where a regular fan or hobbyist can have a good chance to beat the combined expertise of the industry in picking the direction of THE mission critical choice. So to say if me and Bumbles get together and design a self landing rocket in our spare time that is just as good as Elon Musk's Maybe a little better. Or we figure out a viable way for surgeons to to repair an area of the brain. And Shaw and HaplessBillsFan design a cool new electric car engine just as good as Toyota's is. You get the picture. The NFL is doing their best but really they are almost as close to guessing as we are. The difference between what they can come up with and what can come up with isn't very big. It isn't like my rocket idea versus Musk's. I hope the Bills guess right! McCarron won back to back national championships and played in front of 102,000 rabid fans at Alabama. He played for the best and most demanding coach in college football. He fought to get out of Cincinnati because he wanted the opportunity to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Well if you read the article or some of the posts here you'd see that NO ONE, including the people who wrote the art I cle, thinks there's an1-1 correlation. I missed all of that. Scapulars? I'll have to come here more often. As for Meanie's post, I do think the pros are several steps ahead of us when it comes to guessing. The problem in the qb department is that if your team needs a qb, you have to take chances on guys. On a Losman, an Edwards, a Manuel. You have take someone. The simple fact is that it appears that there are only ten or twelve guys on the planet who can really master the position and there are 32 teams looking for QB's. So they take guys hoping they're own evaluation turns to be wrong. I don't think this is your kind of post! I figured you may have looked at this, shook your head sadly at what the Bills have done to me, and moved on But in case you have some time on your hands and are brave, here is the link. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/203539-aj-mccarron-is-now-my-favorite-quarterback-because-i-am-my-mothers-son/ I think you might be right right about the 10 or 12 guys. I also think there is nobody who can predict who they are. Which is our problem. But what bugs the beejeebers out of me is somebody like Nix who is STILL convinced he made no mistake on EJ. Make a mistake move on, try again. Ok by me. Make a mistake and refuse to admit it and pass on quality prospects for years, that irritates the heck out of me. 1 hour ago, Sky Diver said: McCarron won back to back national championships and played in front of 102,000 rabid fans at Alabama. He played for the best and most demanding coach in college football. He fought to get out of Cincinnati because he wanted the opportunity to start. Thanks. I heard he said he would play at league minimum for a year if he was a guaranteed starter. I don't buy the story that he couldn't beat out Dalton exactly. This is because I know teams don't often replace an entrenched starter unless they are forced to. Because just like with with Tyrod you lose all kinds of credibility if you are wrong. Dalton is pretty good and it isn't worth the gamble unless you are certain they guy coming in is way better. Even Brady only got put in because Bledsoe went down. So I think that McCarron very well might be as good as Daltonn or better with a bit of seasoning. Time will tell. 1 hour ago, BuffaLoko said: Wow man! just wow! if your post about AJ McC, scapulars and all those beliefs in catholicism, weren't enough to make you a hero to me, this analogies amog careers / industries have just pushed the envelope!! thanks or a well thought post again! Hey that is very, very kind of you. Thanks BuffaLoko! Clever name by the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaLoko Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Well if you read the article or some of the posts here you'd see that NO ONE, including the people who wrote the art I cle, thinks there's an1-1 correlation. I missed all of that. Scapulars? I'll have to come here more often. As for Meanie's post, I do think the pros are several steps ahead of us when it comes to guessing. The problem in the qb department is that if your team needs a qb, you have to take chances on guys. On a Losman, an Edwards, a Manuel. You have take someone. The simple fact is that it appears that there are only ten or twelve guys on the planet who can really master the position and there are 32 teams looking for QB's. So they take guys hoping they're own evaluation turns to be wrong. Shaw66, the post you´seemed to have kinda´miss, ia titled something like: ´¨J McCarron is my Favorite QB, because I am my Mama son....¨ or close... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 20 hours ago, Wiz said: They pegged these Bills busts EJ Manuel +170 JP Losman -192 Trent Edwards -647 Isn't EJ Manuel a +275? And Carson Wentz +274? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 35 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: I don't think this is your kind of post! I figured you may have looked at this, shook your head sadly at what the Bills have But what bugs the beejeebers out of me is somebody like Nix who is STILL convinced he made no mistake on EJ. Make a mistake move on, try again. Ok by me. Make a mistake and refuse to admit it and pass on quality prospects for years, that irritates the heck out of me. It depends on what you mean by mistake. Everyone agrees that EJ hasn't become a useful NFL starter, so by that measure he was a mistake. But the Bills needed a qb and they had to get the best one they could. They were going to take SOMEONE. Could Nix have traded down and still gotten the guy he wanted? I don't know, but if he could have, them that was a mistake. But the EJ draft is exactly what I'm talking about. You need a qb, you see a guy with potential but with problems. You take him. In five years either the guy is good or he's another one of those guys who make up the 50% Bust rate in the first round. In other words, teams overdraft qbs, because betting on one is better than not betting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Just now, Shaw66 said: It depends on what you mean by mistake. Everyone agrees that EJ hasn't become a useful NFL starter, so by that measure he was a mistake. But the Bills needed a qb and they had to get the best one they could. They were going to take SOMEONE. Could Nix have traded down and still gotten the guy he wanted? I don't know, but if he could have, them that was a mistake. But the EJ draft is exactly what I'm talking about. You need a qb, you see a guy with potential but with problems. You take him. In five years either the guy is good or he's another one of those guys who make up the 50% Bust rate in the first round. In other words, teams overdraft qbs, because betting on one is better than not betting. Yeah but teams that wait five years to admit the obvious, are the Buffalo Bills who never win. So what I mean by mistake, is insisting you are right. When everybody can see you are wrong. And doing nothing about it. Teams that wait 5 years between taking longshot bets, are the Buffalo Bills. Teams that use the 9th overall pick and the next year's 1st round and 4th round pick, to trade up to 4th overall, to get a wide receiver, but use 16th overall pick to get their franchise quarterback, are the Buffalo Bills. It is most certainly the fault of the Buffalo Bills that they haven't had a QB for 20 years. It isn't bad luck. So yes betting on one is WAY better than not betting. I totally agree. But the Bills haven't been betting for ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 23 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: Yeah but teams that wait five years to admit the obvious, are the Buffalo Bills who never win. So what I mean by mistake, is insisting you are right. When everybody can see you are wrong. And doing nothing about it. Teams that wait 5 years between taking longshot bets, are the Buffalo Bills. Teams that use the 9th overall pick and the next year's 1st round and 4th round pick, to trade up to 4th overall, to get a wide receiver, but use 16th overall pick to get their franchise quarterback, are the Buffalo Bills. It is most certainly the fault of the Buffalo Bills that they haven't had a QB for 20 years. It isn't bad luck. So yes betting on one is WAY better than not betting. I totally agree. But the Bills haven't been betting for ages. Two years after they drafted EJ they bet on Taylor. Most teams make only one bet at a time. Bills have made a lot of bad bets. Losman Edwards Fitz EJ Taylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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