THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Brandon Beane Era Begins

[Shaw66]

Very well written. My points:

- I am NOT on board with the recent trades, especially for Watkins. I can understand scheme fit, but you do need play makers on both sides of the ball. It was the correct decision to not pick up his option but this was his 'show me' year. If he was healthy and produced on the field, he is a game changer. If he didn't in 2017, you do not renew his contract. Getting a pick is hardly compensation for a confirmed elite talented player

- Despite the proclamations of Beane and McD, this is a throw away year. It is the wrong time to do for a franchise bereft of playoff appearances. I can understand the thought of a long term build, but giving away your talent in the hopes of acquiring more future talent is unnecessary. We already had 2 first rounders next year. The plan should have been to win this year and replace the missing/wrong pieces next draft. There are many a team which has turned it around without shipping away their premier talent

- In addition to 'giving away' this season, the next season cant be that bright either if there are rookies all over the place. A team needs leadership, mentors and that seems sorely lacking in the locker room (save for K Williams, Boldin)

- The immediate goal should have been to change the loser culture around the team. These moves go against that goal and can further frustrate players and fans alike

I'm not sure you're right. I loved having Watkins. Amazing skills, and I still believe he's going to be a monster receiver in the league. No doubt Beane and McDermott think the same thing.

 

But that isn't the point. It's about building a team. If you have a philosophy, a plan, then you have to build to that plan. Part of the plan is how and where you're going to spend money. There is a good argument to be made that wide out is NOT the position you should be spending $15 million a year on.

 

Your offensive plan may mot feature the deep ball.

 

So if what I've just said is your philosophy of building a team, then the question is simple: Do you keep Watkins for the season so that your team can win maybe one more game, knowing that at the end of the season he'll be gone? Or do you unload him in a combination of deals that gets you a quality wideout, a presumptive number one receiver, plus a second round and a third round pick?

 

It all depends on whether there's a place on the team you're building for the next five years for a great receiver who will cost you more than you want to spend.

[Shaw66]

Perhaps here is another way to consider these moves and why the Bills hit a home run with the trades.

 

Lets assume both Watkins and Darby are healthy on week one. You remove them from the lineup and you insert Matthews and Gaines. These changes to the Bills lineup will result in a zero impact on the point spread according to vegas (good article on how players impact the line below). Now if Watkins is hurt and not playing and you have Matthews in the line up it might give you .5 point movement. So the Bills generated draft currency while basically keeping the same value according to Vegas.

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nfl-player-point-spread-values/

 

Lets also consider this team is finally focused on getting their franchise QB. We are now in a position to do that next season with the stock pile of draft picks. I could be off here but I think this is the best move this team made in a long time.

[/quote

 

I agree with your point, but your 5 point statement is incorrect. Matthews over and Watkins' replacement isn't 5 point difference. That would mean Watkins is 5 points better than his replacement, and he isn't. That's almost a touchdown a game, and Watkins doesn't get 16 touchdowns a year. And his replacement would get some scores.

 

Still, your point is correct. It's a team game, and no non-QB is 5 or 7 or 10 points better than his replacement.

He caught long passes... he rarely made contested catches, ran routes over the middle etc.

 

Like I said, maybe that will be different in LA, could've been our awful coaches, mediocre QB etc. but he certainly isn't a dynamic guy like Dez or OBJ.

No. Lee Evans was a one-trick pony.

 

Watkins is the real deal.

Yea, but this new regime has no ties to Watkins. So !@#$ him.

 

Trade him away no matter how talented.

 

Ass backwards thinking.... The Billsy way of thinking.

 

There's plenty of doubt Beane and McDermott think the same thing.

 

If they thought he was going to be a top receiver they wouldn't have traded him for a 2nd rounder and a scrub corner.

 

As has been said and repeated several times, plans don't always work out. If McEgos plan is to trade away young talented players like Sammy for unknown draft picks he's not going to last long because he won't be winning.

 

You think the Giants(a better run organization by a mile)are trading away OBJ for a 2nd rounder? Not a chance.

 

Bad move that will look worse in a month or two.

I doubt their plan is to trade away young talent. They traded a guy they knew they wouldn't re-sign, because he will command more in the market than they were willing pay.

 

Watkins isn't built to take the pounding that possession receivers take. Matthews and Boldin have shown they can take that punishment. It's likely that's the kind of guy they want.

 

It simply isn't obvious this was a bad move.

[BadLandsMeanie]

I'm suggesting their strategy is wrong.

 

If Sammy had a big year, why wouldn't you pay him and keep a star WR around?

 

Like I said, it's a I'm smarter then everyone kind of move.

I would say because right now it would be like putting racing tires on a minivan.

[Crusher]

He caught long passes... he rarely made contested catches, ran routes over the middle etc.

 

Like I said, maybe that will be different in LA, could've been our awful coaches, mediocre QB etc. but he certainly isn't a dynamic guy like Dez or OBJ.

Lol

 

Stick to your day job, son.

[Bills Pimpin']

I'm suggesting their strategy is wrong.

If Sammy had a big year, why wouldn't you pay him and keep a star WR around?

Like I said, it's a I'm smarter then everyone kind of move.

It's not an I'm smarter than everyone kind of move at all. It's an "I'm not ever going to pay a wide receiver 15 million dollars if he plays good in a contract year after 4 years of a sub-par injury filled career." It's a"We are getting a wide receiver drafted in the same year with better stats and a 2nd round pick to replace this fragile dude" kind of move.It's an "I'm getting a versatile corner who fits my scheme to replace the bum who isn't smart enough to understand my system and got torched time and again last year and a third round pick" kind of move. The fact of the matter is, the players the Bills received have had better careers in the NFL than the ones they gave up and they got second and third round picks. Those are facts as of tonight. Now you may think you are Nostradamus and that the next 10 years are going to be better than the last 4 for Sammy Watkins and that's OK, but evidently McEgo isn't willing to take that chance and no one should kill him for that. Not when he gets someone that's been better on the same day.

[BillsFan4]

The Rockpile Review by Shaw66The Brandon Beane Era BeginsBrandon Beane arrived in Buffalo three months ago. He was the new guy in town, replacing the last new guy, who replaced the new guy before him. Over time, each new guy made his mark on the team, and then he left. He made a mark, but he didnt win.So Beane took over in May, and now its his turn to make his mark. He did a few deals, nothing very remarkable. It seemed as though wed have to wait until free agency and the draft in 2018 to get a sense of who this man is and what his team-building strategy looks like. Or so it seemed.Less than a day after an ordinary and uneventful preseason opener, Beane reshaped the 2017 starting lineup and set himself up to build the team that he and Sean McDermott envision.In separate deals, Beane traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby and filled their spots in the lineup with quality starters. He also banked second- and third-round picks in the 2018 draft.Yesterday, we could only speculate about how and what Beane and McDermott want to build. Today, its pretty clear.1. They want to build through the draft. Beane confirmed it in his press conference. Why through the draft? Because drafted players cost less than free agents; acquiring less expensive players means more players under the cap with the talent and skills McDermott wants.2. McDermott is confident that system trumps talent, that a lot of good players playing in the right system will beat great players whose talents force the team to adjust to them. He knows Watkins is better than Matthews and Darby is probably better than Gaines, but he also knows that Matthews and Gaines plus the two guys the Bills can draft next year are probably better, collectively, than Watkins and Darby.3. They think they need a true franchise quarterback, not just a good quarterback. Taylor may be a good a quarterback, but he almost certainly isnt a franchise quarterback. Are they done with Taylor? Not necessarily. But the deals put the Bills in position to go after the QB they want if Taylor doesnt make major strides this season. And if Taylor has a good but not great season, dont be surprised if the Bills trade down again in 2018, stockpiling 2019 picks so that they can have one more year to look at Taylor.4. Theyre students of the Belichick way. Belichick trades his top talent rather than pay it. He can afford to pay a GIllislee $4 million because he isnt paying anyone other than a QB $14 million. Beane and McDermott will take a good role player (Matthews) over a better, but costlier star (Watkins). Belichick stockpiles draft picks, often trading down. McDermott traded down in the 2017 draft, instead of trading up for a Watkins. In every practice McDermott puts his players into a particular game situation tells them the situation, tells them how to respond, puts them on the field to practice it. It was reported as innovative, but Belichick has been doing that for years.5. The Pegulas have turned this team over to Beane and McDermott. The deals were bold moves, and Beane must have gone to the Pegulas, if not for their prior approval, at least as a courtesy. A GM that didnt have his owners confidence might have been told to cool it, to hold on to the guy who, at least on paper, was your biggest star. It seems the Pegulas response was its your decision.6. Doug Whaleys approach to his job was to acquire and keep talent. He proudly announced that he had his top six, the highly paid guys who will lead the team: Taylor, Glenn, Watkins, McCoy, Dareus, Gilmore and Hughes). And in truth it wasnt a bad collection of players. But Whaley never articulated, and his acquisitions never revealed, a greater plan about how to build a team. He was hampered by having had a coach (Rex) and maybe another (Marrone), who also didnt have a well-defined strategy. The GMs and coaches, to one extent or another, seemed to think it was enough to get good players and coach em up. McDermott and Beane have a plan; they have an idea of who players fit the plan. (Sounds a bit like Belichick, doesnt it?) Gilmore didnt fit, not at that price (he may be a fit in Belichicks, but not McDermotts). Watkins didnt fit, not at that price. Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, Taylor, McCoy all have gotten the message.7. Beane may be young, but hes in charge. He handled the press conference like a real pro. Straight, on-point answers to some questions, always positive about the players he decided to trade while emphasizing that in return he got players who can play, and flatly and directly declining to answer questions that reveal his future plans.8. Beane may be young, but like Whaley, he isnt afraid. First time GM, one of the youngest in the league; a lot of guys in that position would have backed away from the table and just let 2017 play out with the hand he was dealt. Not Beane.9. Weve heard a lot about how the Bills will be running a variant of the west coast offense, with an emphasis on possession passing and strong running. We saw a lot of short passes in the preseason opener. The acquisitions of Boldin and Matthews reinforce that view. Big targets, possession receivers. The trades scream that the Bills want to be effective, not flashy.I hated to see Sammy go. Hes a special talent, and its so much fun to watch special talent perform for the team I root for. Itll be brutal to watch if he puts up a monster season this year, and he could.But I like the moves. I like them because the team may be better this season (and in any case not terribly worse) than 2016, and I like them because the moves should make the team stronger going forward.Most of all I like them because they say that the Bills, for the first time in a long time, have men in charge who have a plan, who are pursuing that plan every day, and who wont be distracted froam the goal. They have men in charge who have the full support, emotional and financial, of the owners. I like that.GO BILLS!!!The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full days hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Well said. Agree with pretty much all of this. I'm not so convinced that they will be trying to trade up for a QB like many others are. I think they're stockpiling picks to rebuild the entire team, not just go after a QB. If the right one is there in the 1st, I think they take him. Or make a trade up if the cost is low enough.

 

Also agree about Whaley. His philiospoly seemed to be to acquire the most talented player he could (and he said as much, more than once). Having been a scout his whole career, Talent was the #1 priority for him. He didn't really seem to have a specific type of player or team building philosophy. He just wanted the most athletically talented player he could get. It gave the Bills some exciting players, but didn't ever really lead to enough wins for us.

 

Beane and McDermott have a very clear plan. They want high character, selfless 100% team first guys. It does remind me a lot of Belichick TBH. Will it work? Time will tell. But it's been an long time since the Bills have truly been built through the draft. Seeing as that's how most of the best teams have been built, I'm all for it.

[Boatdrinks]

I'm suggesting their strategy is wrong.

If Sammy had a big year, why wouldn't you pay him and keep a star WR around?

Like I said, it's a I'm smarter then everyone kind of move.

This is so true. That's where this "Bills fan " mentality comes in of him wanting " more than the team wants to pay". That's supposed to be a justification for mishandling of talent. A WR isn't going to get a QB type contract in the NFL. This team has almost no stars, even less that they actually drafted themselves. Nothing needed to be done to keep SW at a reasonable cost for the next two seasons except picking up his option. The smart move was to evaluate over those two seasons if he was worth a larger investment to the team or not. That would take the uncertainty out of it, with nothing to lose but what you already paid, at that point 5 years down the line. Now they have risked being wrong for a random 2nd round pick. If the goal is to get a top QB, why not find out if his go to WR is already on the roster? Why is " player x wanted more than MCBeane wanted to pay" a justification? Is this guy Belichick or something because he has no track record to base this on.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

Charlottebillsfan2, on 13 Aug 2017 - 2:47 PM, said:

Perhaps here is another way to consider these moves and why the Bills hit a home run with the trades.

Lets assume both Watkins and Darby are healthy on week one. You remove them from the lineup and you insert Matthews and Gaines. These changes to the Bills lineup will result in a zero impact on the point spread according to vegas (good article on how players impact the line below). Now if Watkins is hurt and not playing and you have Matthews in the line up it might give you .5 point movement. So the Bills generated draft currency while basically keeping the same value according to Vegas.

https://www.sportsin...-spread-values/

Lets also consider this team is finally focused on getting their franchise QB. We are now in a position to do that next season with the stock pile of draft picks. I could be off here but I think this is the best move this team made in a long time.
[/quote

I agree with your point, but your 5 point statement is incorrect. Matthews over and Watkins' replacement isn't 5 point difference. That would mean Watkins is 5 points better than his replacement, and he isn't. That's almost a touchdown a game, and Watkins doesn't get 16 touchdowns a year. And his replacement would get some scores.

Still, your point is correct. It's a team game, and no non-QB is 5 or 7 or 10 points better than his replacement.

 

Shaw you misread what I said. If Mathews is playing in our lineup and Watkins is not its only a .5 movement (1/2 a point).