Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 And they don't have the starts to register. If you draw a line of "with at least 10 starts" you'd probably eliminate every bum (besides EJ). It's pretty shocking to see the Bills QBs over this time period and just how bad they are in comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 It's pretty shocking to see the Bills QBs over this time period and just how bad they are in comparison...We've had some guys that were awful. Trent, EJ, Losman were the young guys that we were supposed to ride. One was worse than the next. I'm not even sure how I'd rank them (Edwards is probably my least favorite Bills player ever). Even the backup types that we tried like Brohm, Cassel, Kolb, Nall, etc... were terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 is there any kind of analytical way to evaluate college QB's? or is it too difficult because the competition is so different from school to school? it's really amazing how teams like the Bills, Browns, Jets can be so wrong about so many QB's year after year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 is there any kind of analytical way to evaluate college QB's? or is it too difficult because the competition is so different from school to school? it's really amazing how teams like the Bills, Browns, Jets can be so wrong about so many QB's year after yearIt's pretty crazy for sure and probably is an organizational failure. At the same time the numbers say that about 1/2 or more of the top QBs in the league were drafted in the top 3 picks. The Bills and Jets haven't taken a swing there. The Browns haven't since Couch (I don't think). That is luck more than anything. If you get the 1st pick and Cam comes out you look like you know how to draft QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 We've had some guys that were awful. Trent, EJ, Losman were the young guys that we were supposed to ride. One was worse than the next. I'm not even sure how I'd rank them (Edwards is probably my least favorite Bills player ever). Even the backup types that we tried like Brohm, Cassel, Kolb, Nall, etc... were terrible. My thought on Edwards is summed up perfectly in the game where we were down late in the 4th quarter and trying to drive in a close game(I think) and we were near midfield or slightly over and Edwards scrambled to the sideline on a 4th down and instead of heaving it up to see if we could make some type of play, he ran it out of bounds for a loss to save a potential INT... I hated him ever since then and I think it was more egregious than Orton sliding on 4th down and a few against Denver because I don't think he would have made it anyway. is there any kind of analytical way to evaluate college QB's? or is it too difficult because the competition is so different from school to school? it's really amazing how teams like the Bills, Browns, Jets can be so wrong about so many QB's year after year The highest correlation from what I've seen via metrics is by number of games started and completion percentage, but even that isn't perfect...it does however pretty accurately show bust potential... QB's that have low completion percentages in college almost ALWAYS bust in the NFL no matter how good they are "supposed to be"...look at Hackenburg, for instance....that dude is never going to be anything close to a starting caliber QB in this league. His completion percentage in college was awful. So it's more accurate for determining the bust potential of a highly ranked QB than it is for determining how good they will be, but it's got some correlation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 My thought on Edwards is summed up perfectly in the game where we were down late in the 4th quarter and trying to drive in a close game(I think) and we were near midfield or slightly over and Edwards scrambled to the sideline on a 4th down and instead of heaving it up to see if we could make some type of play, he ran it out of bounds for a loss to save a potential INT... I hated him ever since then and I think it was more egregious than Orton sliding on 4th down and a few against Denver because I don't think he would have made it anyway. The highest correlation from what I've seen via metrics is by number of games started and completion percentage, but even that isn't perfect...it does however pretty accurately show bust potential... QB's that have low completion percentages in college almost ALWAYS bust in the NFL no matter how good they are "supposed to be"...look at Hackenburg, for instance....that dude is never going to be anything close to a starting caliber QB in this league. His completion percentage in college was awful. So it's more accurate for determining the bust potential of a highly ranked QB than it is for determining how good they will be, but it's got some correlation... i've seen people say those things plus the wonderlic score but using that to gauge potential would mean that EJ was supposed to be good. plus he had big hands and we know Whaley likes men with big hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 i've seen people say those things plus the wonderlic score but using that to gauge potential would mean that EJ was supposed to be good. plus he had big hands and we know Whaley likes men with big hands Form the data I have and the charts on the Wonderlic, I don't see a correlation with that...Wonderlic scores trend slightly downward by round but nothing that really sticks out as something huge...I'll post the data for that also when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 My thought on Edwards is summed up perfectly in the game where we were down late in the 4th quarter and trying to drive in a close game(I think) and we were near midfield or slightly over and Edwards scrambled to the sideline on a 4th down and instead of heaving it up to see if we could make some type of play, he ran it out of bounds for a loss to save a potential INT... I hated him ever since then and I think it was more egregious than Orton sliding on 4th down and a few against Denver because I don't think he would have made it anyway. Ha ha, I remember it well and that was the same point I was sure that I hated him. He didn't want to compete. Throwing the ball straight up in the air, underhanded would have been a better decision! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 It's pretty crazy for sure and probably is an organizational failure. At the same time the numbers say that about 1/2 or more of the top QBs in the league were drafted in the top 3 picks. The Bills and Jets haven't taken a swing there. The Browns haven't since Couch (I don't think). That is luck more than anything. If you get the 1st pick and Cam comes out you look like you know how to draft QBs. 2 of the top 3(when you include Manning) and 4 of the "Elite QB's" by this list(I really think the one I will post later is more accurate as it removes Vick and Culpepper from the Elite list and replaces them with Matt Ryan) were not actually... With Manning included(bringing the list to 9 QB's): #1 Rodgers: Drafted in the late first #2 Brady: Drafted in the 6th round #5 Brees: Drafted in the 2nd round(although he normally would have been the last pick in the 1st if there was a 32nd pick in the 1st round) #7 Wilson: Drafted in the 3rd round 4 of the 9 "Elite" QB's by this list were not drafted anywhere near top 3 and 2 were drafted relatively late(Wilson and Brady) I'd expect Prescott to be added to this list if he continues to progress and not turn out to be another RG III(who drops significantly in the re-done list based on games played/16), which would make it 5/10 nowhere near the top of the draft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 (edited) 2 of the top 3(when you include Manning) and 4 of the "Elite QB's" by this list(I really think the one I will post later is more accurate as it removes Vick and Culpepper from the Elite list and replaces them with Matt Ryan) were not actually... With Manning included(bringing the list to 9 QB's): #1 Rodgers: Drafted in the late first #2 Brady: Drafted in the 6th round #5 Brees: Drafted in the 2nd round(although he normally would have been the last pick in the 1st if there was a 32nd pick in the 1st round) #7 Wilson: Drafted in the 3rd round 4 of the 9 "Elite" QB's by this list were not drafted anywhere near top 3 and 2 were drafted relatively late(Wilson and Brady) I'd expect Prescott to be added to this list if he continues to progress and not turn out to be another RG III(who drops significantly in the re-done list based on games played/16), which would make it 5/10 nowhere near the top of the draft... If you take the guys that are "good or better" 26 guys 13 of them were top 4 picks (Rivers was 4th) and another 6 were between 5-32. That's 19 of the 26 guys (if my counting is right). Edited June 15, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 (edited) If you take the guys that are "good or better" 26 guys 13 of them were top 4 picks (Rivers was 4th) and another 6 were between 5-32. That's 19 of the 26 guys (if my counting is right). Oh, no doubt if you are looking to get a franchise QB, you want a guy in the first round...the metrics on QBs drafted after round 1 are mostly bad, just found it interesting half of the best of the best were misread by scouts and in some cases misread terribly(Brady) Edited June 15, 2017 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Oh, no doubt if you are looking to get a franchise QB, you want a guy in the first round...the metrics on QBs drafted after round 1 are mostly bad, just found it interesting half of the best of the best were misread by scouts and in some cases misread terribly(Brady)Romo could have been there as well potentially. If you are banking on a franchise guy though we should stop thinking about Brady being a 6th rounder and start thinking of how we get to the top of the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 Romo could have been there as well potentially. If you are banking on a franchise guy though we should stop thinking about Brady being a 6th rounder and start thinking of how we get to the top of the draft. yes, but I believe he was a UDFA, which wouldn't have shown up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 Here is the revised way of doing the ratings using Games Played/16 instead of Years Played as the multiplier for Career AV. It definitely passes the "eye test" better. Vick and Culpepper are out of the elite category and replaced by Ryan. Culpepper goes to Very Good, Vick to Good. RGIII drops out of the Very good cateogory and drops to good, Flacco moves from average to good and widens the gap on Taylor, who loses 1.2 points of value. Fitz drops to where he belongs in the Below Average category. Bottom Line...Bills QB's for the most in here really suck. Original Way---YearsPlayed as Multiplier New Way---GamesPlayed/16 as Multiplier The "Elite QB's"(Over 17): The "Elite QB's"(Over 17): Aaron Rodgers 21.0 Aaron Rodgers 19.5 Tom Brady 19.4 Peyton Manning 19.0 Peyton Manning 19.2 Tom Brady 18.7 Daunte Culpepper 19.0 Russell Wilson 18.2 Drew Brees 17.9 Cam Newton 17.9 Phillip Rivers 17.6 Drew Brees 17.6 Russell Wilson 17.5 Matt Ryan 17.4 Cam Newton 17.3 Phillip Rivers 17.2 Michael Vick 17.2(shocked) The "Very Good QB's"(16.9-15.0): The "Very Good QB's"(16.9-15.0): Matt Ryan: 16.9 Daunte Culpepper 16.7 Dak Prescott 16.0(1 year) Dak Prescott 16.0 Donovan McNabb 15.9 Andrew Luck 15.8 Andrew Luck 15.5 Donovan McNabb 15.1 Carson Palmer 15.5 Ben Roethlisberger 15.0 Robert Griffin III 15.3(still living off his rookie season) David Garrard 15.3(shocked part II) Ben Roethlisberger 15.1 The "Good QB's"(14.9-13.0): The "Good QB's"(14.9-13.0): Aaron Brooks 14.9 Michael Vick 14.5 Chad Pennington 14.3 Carson Palmer 14.5 Matthew Stafford 14.3 Robert Griffin III 14.4 Jay Cutler 14.0 Matt Stafford 14.2 Alex Smith 13.8 Aaron Brooks 13.9 Eli Manning 13.4 David Garrard 13.8 Marc Bulger 13.3 Eli Manning 13.7 Andy Dalton 13.2 Andy Dalton 13.7 Marcus Mariota 13.0 Marcus Mariota 13.5 Jay Cutler 13.4 Joe Flacco 13.0 The "Average QB's"(12.9-11.0) The "Average QB's"(12.9-11.0) Joe Flacco 12.7 Alex Smith 12.8 Colin Kaepernick 12.5 Teddy Bridgewater 12.6 Tyrod Taylor 12.5 Jameis Winston 12.6 Byron Leftwich 12.3 Ryan Tannehill 12.4 Josh Freeman 12.3 Colin Kaepernick 12.2 Teddy Bridgewater 12.1 Chad Pennington 12.1 Ryan Fitzpatrick 12.1 Marc Bulger 11.9 Jameis Winston 12.0 Kirk Cousins 11.4 Kirk Cousins 12.0 Tyrod Taylor 11.3 Ryan Tannehill 11.9 Josh Freeman 11.2 Matt Schaub 11.8 Jason Campbell 11.7 The "Below Average QB's"(10.9-9.0) The "Below Average QB's"(10.9-9.0) David Carr 10.9 Ryan Fitzpatrick 10.9 Sam Bardford 10.8 Derek Carr 10.8 Matt Cassell 10.6 Matt Schaub 10.7 Vince Young 10.6 Blake Bortles 10.7 Kyle Orton 10.6 Jason Campbell 10.3 Derek Carr 10.4(Huh????) Sam Bradford 10.3 Josh McCown 10.3 Byron Leftwich 10.0 Blake Bortles 10.2 Vince Young 10.0 Christian Ponder 10.2 Carson Wentz 10.0 Shaun King 10.2 Christian Ponder 9.9 Nick Foles 10.1 Trevor Siemian 9.6 Carson Wentz 10.0 Nick Foles 9.5 Trevor Siemian 9.6 David Carr 9.3 Rex Grossman 9.5 Kyle Orton 9.2 Mike Glennon 9.2 Matt Cassell 9.0 Dennis Dixon 9.2 Mark Sanchez 9.2 Chad Henne 9.0 The "Terrible QB's"(8.9-7.0) The "Terrible QB's"(8.9-7.0) Tim Couch 8.9 Shaun King 8.9 Jake Locker 8.8 Tim Couch 8.9 J.P Losman 8.8 Mike Glennon 8.5 Trent Edwards 8.6 Mark Sanchez 8.4 John Beck 8.2 Jake Locker 8.4 Matt Mauck 8.0 Dennis Dixon 7.7 Tarvaris Jackson 8.0 Chad Henne 7.7 Quincy Carter 7.9 Trent Edwards 7.7 Patrick Ramsey 7.6 Quincy Carter 7.7 Geno Smith 7.5 Matt Mauck 7.7 JT O'Sullivan 7.3 Greg McElroy 7.7 Matt Leinart 7.3 Rex Grossman 7.6 Brandon Weeden 7.2 Josh McCown 7.5 Derek Anderson 7.2 JP Losman 7.4 Joey Harrington 7.1 Geno Smith 7.1 Chris Redman 7.0 Joey Harrington 7.1 Chris Simms 7.0 Brandon Weeden 7.0 John Beck 7.0 "How Are Thet To The NFL?? QB's"(6.9-5.0) The "How Did He Make It To The NFL?? QB's"(6.9-5.0) Drew Stanton 6.8 Tarvaris Jackson 6.5 Kevin Kolb 6.8 Patrick Ramsey 6.5 Colt McCoy 6.8 Matt Leinart 6.1 Tyler Thigpen 6.6 Kevin Kolb 6.0 Sage Rosenfels 6.6 Colt McCoy 6.0 A.J. McCarron 6.3 EJ Manuel 5.9 EJ Manuel 6.3 AJ McCarron 5.9 Charlie Whitehurst 6.2 Tyler Thigpen 5.7 Tim Rattay 6.2 Chris Simms 5.7 Chris Weinke 6.2 Derek Anderson 5.7 Dan Orlovsky 6.0 JT O'Sullivan 5.7 Jim Sorgi 6.0 Chris Weinke 5.2 Tim Rattay 5.2 Sage Rosenfels 5.1 Drew Stanton 5.1 Jim Sorgi 5.0 Fire The Scouts for Drafting Him(under 5.0) Chris Redman 4.9 Charlie Whitehurst 4.4 Dan Orlovsky 4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 (edited) I think the glaring anomalies found in your stats, OP, say that there's something logically wrong with your methodology. There's no way that Daunte Culpepper or Michael Vick belong in the same category as P Manning, Brady, and Rodgers, and Robert Griffin III, David Garrard, and Josh Freeman certainly belong significantly lower than your numbers say they are. None of them was as consistently good as QBs like Tannehill and Carr, both of whom have been good for longer than these duds who had about 1 good season each in their short starting careers. I think part of the problem is that QBs with relatively few seasons as starters are being either more severely punished (like Carr and Tannehill) for being on poor teams or more generously rewarded (like Griffin and Freeman, both of whom had 1 good season each) for being on better teams. Another problem, as Crusher pointed out and which is the real problem, is that your stats don't account for differences among teams. For example, the Miami Dolphins sucked at least until the last year or two of Tannehill's tenure with the team, including poor coaching and poor talent, especially on the OL and among receivers. In contrast, Andy Dalton has always had good coaching, a strong running game, a decent OL ... and AJ Green in Cinci. At the beginning of his career, Phillip Rivers had the luxury of playing on a team overflowing with talent but in recent years, as that talent dried up, Rivers' stats have declined. There's no other position on the football team as dependent on the talent surrounding him than the QB. Every QB needs protection and targets, but those aren't evenly distributed, not only among teams but also on a single team over the course of a long career such as with Rivers or Roethlisberger or Eli Manning. When/If you figure out how to adequately factor in the length of QBs' careers and how to account for the differing quality of teams QBs play on, then you might be able to get a usable statistical measure without the anomalies. Edited June 17, 2017 by SoTier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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