Bills do a poor job of keeping draft picks on their roster.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

There is no doubt our drafting through most of the 00s was brutal. I think it has got better since Nix purged the FO of Modrak and Guy after the 2010 draft. Since then their picks in the first two rounds have been:

 

2011 - Dareus, A. Williams (pretty good)

2012 - Gimore, Glenn (outstanding)

2013 - EJ, Woods (mixed results)

2014 - Watkins, Kujo (an incomplete and a bust)

2015 - Darby (pretty good)

2016 - Shaq, Ragland (incomplete)

 

Still not sensational but 2 busts in 11 (12 picks) 1st and 2nd rounders is, I would guess, probably slightly better than the league average. Where I personally think the Bills haven't done very well since the beginning of this decade is with their later round picks. The only people we drafted after the 3rd round in that period who have become starters at any stage in their Bills career are:

 

Searcy - drafted in the 4th in 2011 who started 1 year after 3 as a backup;

Bradham - drafted in the 4th in 2012 who started 2 years after 2 as a rotational player;

Henderson - drafted in the 7th in 2014 started in his rookie year and lost the job halfway through his 2nd year.

 

Interestingly those two success stories - Searcy and Bradham - both walked after their rookie deal.

 

Hmmm....the way I see it, Henderson didn't "lose his job" halfway through his 2nd year, he had serious medical issues and now looks like he's drugging his way out of the league.

 

I'm not sure "starter" is the fair evaluation of later round draftees, especially in the 1st 3 years of their careers.

Strong contributor would do, lot of value there. And even with starter, you missed a few

 

What I think is a "fair cop" is that the Bills under Whaley def. went with some "high ceiling, high risk" guys - guys with red flags in college who would have all the potential in the world if they got their life in order or their medical probs. resolved. Henderson and Karlos Williams would def. fall into the "high ceiling, red flag" category.

 

Draftees from later rounds who have played well:

Kevon Seymour (2016, 6th) - played 15 games as a rookie. 22 tackles, 3 pass defense - not a star, but good value for 6th round

Adolphus Washington (2016, 3rd - played 15 games as a rookie. 12 tackles, 9 assists. May fall a victim to scheme change, but showed some promise.

John Miller (2015, 3rd) - You missed this guy. He was starting. Poor rookie year, much improved last year.

Karlos Williams (2015, 5th) - Million dollar talent, 10 cent head. He looked like "all that and a bag of chips" until he drugged and ate his way out of the league.

Preston Brown (2014, 3rd) - starter/not starter kind of tenuous distinction on Ryan's D with its zillions of substitutions, but I think you'd have to tag him as a "Starter", and the "Brown Bros" did pretty well

Russ Cockrell (2014, 4th) - he's starting all right, including in playoff games - just not for us, for a BETTER team (Steelers). Scheme change casualty of Ryan.

Seantrell Henderson (2014, 7th) - another example of a high ceiling, red flag guy. As you noted, Starting until his intestines went caflooie

Marquise Goodwin (2013, 3rd) - I guess you call your #3 WR a starter, even if it took him 4 years to get there? whether he should have been a #3 is another issue. I kind of have to give you a pass for overlooking Flash.

Duke Williams (2013, 4th) - started games (tenous distinction for DB). 39 tackles and 14 assists in 2014 good D. Whether he could have been more serviceable staying in another scheme than Ryans, can't say.

Nigel Bradham (2012, 4th) - another one who is starting elsewhere, for a team that looks upward bound (Eagles). Started 14 games for us in 2014, 66 tackles, 38 assists. Another scheme change casualty.

Kelvin Sheppard (2011,3rd) - started in 2012. I didn't think well of him, but he's still in the league - has started for Dolphins and Giants (last year, 11-5)

D'Norris Searcy (2011,4th) - started games beginning as a rookie - tenuous distinction DB starter or not - Played well in 2014 in good Bills D, Scheme change casualty. Started 2 years for Tenn.

 

Players who have/had potential, but have been IR'd so far:

Kolby Listenbee (2016, 6th) - still on IR and not participating in OTAs?

Tony Steward (2015, 6th) - on IR with the Bills, now on IR with the Saints

The points I'm trying to make would be:

-Late rounds not quite as bereft of starting talent as your post would have them be. An average of 2 players a year who contribute strongly from 3rd to 7th round is actually pretty good for late rounds (40%, good would be >30%)

-Scheme change has had a HUGE impact on talent retention for defense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[GunnerBill]

 

Hmmm....the way I see it, Henderson didn't "lose his job" halfway through his 2nd year, he had serious medical issues and now looks like he's drugging his way out of the league.

 

I'm not sure "starter" is the fair evaluation of later round draftees, especially in the 1st 3 years of their careers.

Strong contributor would do, lot of value there. And even with starter, you missed a few

 

What I think is a "fair cop" is that the Bills under Whaley def. went with some "high ceiling, high risk" guys - guys with red flags in college who would have all the potential in the world if they got their life in order or their medical probs. resolved. Henderson and Karlos Williams would def. fall into the "high ceiling, red flag" category.

 

Draftees from later rounds who have played well:

Kevon Seymour (2016, 6th) - played 15 games as a rookie. 22 tackles, 3 pass defense - not a star, but good value for 6th round

Adolphus Washington (2016, 3rd - played 15 games as a rookie. 12 tackles, 9 assists. May fall a victim to scheme change, but showed some promise.

John Miller (2015, 3rd) - You missed this guy. He was starting. Poor rookie year, much improved last year.

Karlos Williams (2015, 5th) - Million dollar talent, 10 cent head. He looked like "all that and a bag of chips" until he drugged and ate his way out of the league.

Preston Brown (2014, 3rd) - starter/not starter kind of tenuous distinction on Ryan's D with its zillions of substitutions, but I think you'd have to tag him as a "Starter", and the "Brown Bros" did pretty well

Russ Cockrell (2014, 4th) - he's starting all right, including in playoff games - just not for us, for a BETTER team (Steelers). Scheme change casualty of Ryan.

Seantrell Henderson (2014, 7th) - another example of a high ceiling, red flag guy. As you noted, Starting until his intestines went caflooie

Marquise Goodwin (2013, 3rd) - I guess you call your #3 WR a starter, even if it took him 4 years to get there? whether he should have been a #3 is another issue. I kind of have to give you a pass for overlooking Flash.

Duke Williams (2013, 4th) - started games (tenous distinction for DB). 39 tackles and 14 assists in 2014 good D. Whether he could have been more serviceable staying in another scheme than Ryans, can't say.

Nigel Bradham (2012, 4th) - another one who is starting elsewhere, for a team that looks upward bound (Eagles). Started 14 games for us in 2014, 66 tackles, 38 assists. Another scheme change casualty.

Kelvin Sheppard (2011,3rd) - started in 2012. I didn't think well of him, but he's still in the league - has started for Dolphins and Giants (last year, 11-5)

D'Norris Searcy (2011,4th) - started games beginning as a rookie - tenuous distinction DB starter or not - Played well in 2014 in good Bills D, Scheme change casualty. Started 2 years for Tenn.

 

Players who have/had potential, but have been IR'd so far:

Kolby Listenbee (2016, 6th) - still on IR and not participating in OTAs?

Tony Steward (2015, 6th) - on IR with the Bills, now on IR with the Saints

The points I'm trying to make would be:

-Late rounds not quite as bereft of starting talent as your post would have them be. An average of 2 players a year who contribute strongly from 3rd to 7th round is actually pretty good for late rounds (40%, good would be >30%)

-Scheme change has had a HUGE impact on talent retention for defense

 

 

 

I didn't miss Miller (who I am on of the bigger fans on this board of) or Preston Brown or Kelvin Sheppard or the useless Flash for that matter. We have probably batted slightly below average on 3rd rounders but I was specifically talking about 4th round or later.

 

Duke wasn't a starter.... he was a backup who started when a starter went down. Seymour was a pick I liked but as yet he hasn't established himself as a starter. Karlos was not a starter either he was a #2 back. Cockrell I agree was a victim of scheme change - and I actually accepted that principle a few pages back. If there is one I "forgot" it would be Nickell Robey-Coleman who was an UDFA in 2013 and became a 'starter' as the nickel.

 

But in 6 drafts to only find 4 guys from round 4 on capable of starting..... that guarantees you having to play the low end free agent market well - which in fairness was something of a Whaley strength. They need to improve in that facet for me. Scheme consistency will help, but look at the top teams in the league they almost all have star players who were drafted late. Whether it is Julian Edelman (7th Rd), Chris Harris (UDFA), Richard Sherman (5th Rd), David Bakhtiari (5th Rd), Davonta Freeman (4th Rd), Antonio Brown (6th Rd)..... the best the Bills can muster is two 4th rounders who walked after rookie deals and a less than average right tackle who played a season and a half.

Edited May 30, 2017 by GunnerBill