I do not trade out of #10 if this guy is still there, is...

[jeffismagic]

This is an awful QB class! What do you see that says yeah gotta have that guy. Watson should clearly be the #1 QB because twice he handled Alabama's NFL style, loaded with NFL talent, defense.

 

So we heard "no sure thing" in 2014 as well.

 

"The 2014 quarterback class doesn't have a sure bet at the position, but features a pair of intriguing franchise quarterback possibilities in Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel. While Bridgewater is the classic pocket passer capable of fitting into any system, Manziel is a budding star capable of changing the game with his spectacular improvisational skills. Blake Bortles is the wild card of the group with a set of physical tools that could make him an elite player in time."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000313170/article/top-5-2014-nfl-draft-prospects-by-position-quarterbacks

 

 

Why do you want a sure thing QB class? How would that help us? We draft 10th, not 1st or 2nd.

Edited April 12, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Kirby Jackson]

Why do you want a sure thing QB class? How would that help us? We draft 10th, not 1st or 2nd.

Because QBs are getting pushed up the board no matter what. They were just going through QB grades on Mike & Mike. Luck was a 99, Winston 97, Goff 91 and Trubisky 88 (or 86 can't remember). The 1st 3 all went 1 and Trubisky may as well. There are only so many teams that need QB and better QB classes will drive better players further down the board. Ben Roethelisberger went 10 because Eli and Rivers were in the same draft. This is why I have been on the 2018 train. You may have 4+ QBs that have a grade that high. They can't all be picked 1.

[jeffismagic]

Because QBs are getting pushed up the board no matter what. They were just going through QB grades on Mike & Mike. Luck was a 99, Winston 97, Goff 91 and Trubisky 88 (or 86 can't remember). The 1st 3 all went 1 and Trubisky may as well. There are only so many teams that need QB and better QB classes will drive better players further down the board. Ben Roethelisberger went 10 because Eli and Rivers were in the same draft. This is why I have been on the 2018 train. You may have 4+ QBs that have a grade that high. They can't all be picked 1.

 

I would not pass on a Derek Carr because 2015 was supposed to be a better draft class than 2014.

 

Also, this year is not 2013 and next year won't be 2004.

Edited April 12, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I would not pass on a Derek Carr because 2015 was supposed to be a better draft class than 2014.

 

Also, this year is not 2013 and next year won't be 2004.

You asked a question and I answered. The reason that you want a better QB class is because better QBs will be pushed down the board. You may get a QB at 10 next year that has a higher grade than every QB in this class. It's not about selectively using a successful 2nd round pick and saying "I wouldn't have passed on him." Would you have passed on Hackenberg? John Beck? Pat White? Obviously you will say, "of course" because of the benefit of hindsight.

 

You have hitched your wagon to Mahomes and you like Trubisky. I applaud you for going out on it. I get the feeling though that regardless of the player though you'd have hitched your wagon to the best available QB. If this were 2013 you'd be screaming for EJ or Nassib or Bray. Obviously, you will say "no" because you now know those guys can't play.

 

Where we disagree is that the Bills aren't desperate for a QB. They are getting decent QB play. They could use an upgrade at QB. I'm not drafting a guy that may be Dalton. If we were in 2007 I might fee differently. We didn't have decent QB play back then. We have a guy that we can win with (but not win because of). He has a winning record with a below average defense and poor coaching.

 

If the Bills see one of these guys as a clear upgrade (higher ceiling and equal floor) go for it. I don't think that there is a person in the league that would be sure that any of these guys will produce more than TT. They may like some of the prospects more but no one has that high floor. Some prospects do, Jameis and Mariota most recently. Those are the only guys I'd swing on in the 1st in our situation. Next year's draft looks to have a few and I'd build my war chest to go get one.

[jeffismagic]

You asked a question and I answered. The reason that you want a better QB class is because better QBs will be pushed down the board. You may get a QB at 10 next year that has a higher grade than every QB in this class. It's not about selectively using a successful 2nd round pick and saying "I wouldn't have passed on him." Would you have passed on Hackenberg? John Beck? Pat White? Obviously you will say, "of course" because of the benefit of hindsight.

 

You have hitched your wagon to Mahomes and you like Trubisky. I applaud you for going out on it. I get the feeling though that regardless of the player though you'd have hitched your wagon to the best available QB. If this were 2013 you'd be screaming for EJ or Nassib or Bray. Obviously, you will say "no" because you now know those guys can't play.

 

Where we disagree is that the Bills aren't desperate for a QB. They are getting decent QB play. They could use an upgrade at QB. I'm not drafting a guy that may be Dalton. If we were in 2007 I might fee differently. We didn't have decent QB play back then. We have a guy that we can win with (but not win because of). He has a winning record with a below average defense and poor coaching.

 

If the Bills see one of these guys as a clear upgrade (higher ceiling and equal floor) go for it. I don't think that there is a person in the league that would be sure that any of these guys will produce more than TT. They may like some of the prospects more but no one has that high floor. Some prospects do, Jameis and Mariota most recently. Those are the only guys I'd swing on in the 1st in our situation. Next year's draft looks to have a few and I'd build my war chest to go get one.

 

You could also say that many of those who don't want to draft a QB this year are extreme Tyrod believers. You draft WR's and 2nd TE's at 10 yet Corey Davis and OJ Howard are not even close to elite prospects. They are just guys that can also be had year after year.

 

And for the record Mahomes and Trubisky's upside is far higher than a QB that has to be protected from throwing the football.

Edited April 12, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Kirby Jackson]

 

You could also say that many of those who don't want to draft a QB this year are extreme Tyrod believers. You draft WR's and 2nd TE's at 10 yet Corey Davis and OJ Howard are not even close to elite prospects. They are just guys that can also be had year after year.

 

And for the record Mahomes and Trubisky's upside is far higher than a QB that has to be protected from throwing the football.

I don't think that anyone is an extreme Tyrod believer. I am on here quite a bit (for better or worse) and there are less than 5 guys that I can think of that are all in on him.

 

I think that most would agree that those guys have higher ceilings. I don't think that anyone would say that they have higher floors. Tyrod has the benefit of 2 years so there is some hindsight here as well. If you could promise that Mahomes and Trubisky would account for 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 games as their floor they would be sure fire 1st picks. There isn't a QB in this draft whose floor is a solid starting NFL QB.

 

Without going too far off topic OJ Howard isn't a guy available year after year. I haven't seen his grade but I'd venture to say that he has the highest TE grade in years. The same goes for Hooker and Adams. They are elite prospects and would be the best at their respective positions in most drafts.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[jeffismagic]

I don't think that anyone is an extreme Tyrod believer. I am on here quite a bit (for better or worse) and there are less than 5 guys that I can think of that are all in on him.

 

I think that most would agree that those guys have higher ceilings. I don't think that anyone would say that they have higher floors. Tyrod has the benefit of 2 years so there is some hindsight here as well. If you could promise that Mahomes and Trubisky would account for 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 games as their floor they would be sure fire 1st picks. There isn't a QB in this draft whose floor is a solid starting NFL QB.

 

I just see Tyrod differently than you. If you are satisfied with the QB play (and I am not) then it is easy to come up with reasons not to like the QB's in this draft.

 

One of the themes from the Tyrod people is that Tyrod will be unleashed under Dennison.

[GunnerBill]

You have to trust your evaluations. That is what it comes down to. I didn't have Goff anywhere like as close to Winston as Mike and Mike. I had Goff and Wentz both with back end of the 1st grades - right around where I have Mitchell Trubisky this year (interestingly that is right about where I had Bortles too who was my top QB in the 2014 draft). The only Quarterbacks I have had in the 4 years I have been trying to evaluate and grade properly with higher grades than I currently have on Watson were Mariota and Winston. If you want me to suddenly believe there are going to be 4 Quarterbacks with higher grades than Watson in 2018 and one of them will be there when the Bills pick next year (let's say we are in that 8-12 range again) then I have a tough time believing that. Can I believe that there might be a couple in that grading range? Yes - but will they get to number 8 or 10 or 12 or whatever?

Edited April 12, 2017 by GunnerBill

[jeffismagic]

You have to trust your evaluations. That is what it comes down to. I didn't have Goff anywhere like as close to Winston as Mike and Mike. I had Goff and Wentz both with back end of the 1st grades - right around where I have Mitchell Trubisky this year (interestingly that is right about where I had Bortles too who was my top QB in the 2014 draft). The only Quarterbacks I have had in the 4 years I have been trying to evaluate and grade properly with higher grades than I currently have on Watson were Mariota and Winston. If you want me to suddenly believe there are going to be 4 Quarterbacks with higher grades than Watson in 2018 and one of them will be there when the Bills pick next year (let's say we are in that 8-12 range again) then I have a tough time believing that. Can I believe that there might be a couple in that grading range? Yes - but will they get to number 8 or 10 or 12 or whatever?

 

I like Mahomes better than Wentz and Trubisky better than Goff from last year. So, yes, QB's will go quick. You have to find the right guy and then if you believe in him take him.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I just see Tyrod differently than you. If you are satisfied with the QB play (and I am not) then it is easy to come up with reasons not to like the QB's in this draft.

 

One of the themes from the Tyrod people is that Tyrod will be unleashed under Dennison.

I don't think that anyone is thrilled with him but it certainly falls in the decent category. The numbers have been posted on here 1,000 times. You can dice up the stats any way that you want but you are getting what Tannehill, Smith, Flacco and Dalton have given over the last 2 years.

 

In terms of being unleashed under Dennison I don't see it. We will see more rollouts and think that it will look a little different. I don't expect the production to be much better or worse. I expect the game manager level that we have been getting. He will make more plays than mistakes and the offense will score their points. They lack playmakers so I expect a slight regression in scoring. If they add a weapon or 2 that is subject to change.

[jeffismagic]

I don't think that anyone is thrilled with him but it certainly falls in the decent category. The numbers have been posted on here 1,000 times. You can dice up the stats any way that you want but you are getting what Tannehill, Smith, Flacco and Dalton have given over the last 2 years.

 

In terms of being unleashed under Dennison I don't see it. We will see more rollouts and think that it will look a little different. I don't expect the production to be much better or worse. I expect the game manager level that we have been getting. He will make more plays than mistakes and the offense will score their points. They lack playmakers so I expect a slight regression in scoring. If they add a weapon or 2 that is subject to change.

 

I think there is no doubt that Tyrod has been a success as far as doing as much as you can expect from a guy drafted in the 6th round and signed to a cheap FA contract in 2015. The difference is that Buffalo asks far less of Tyrod than the other QB's you mentioned. If Tyrod was carrying the offense Bills would have just picked up the option.

 

As to Dennison, I love the Shanahan system. We shall see how creative Dennison himself is soon enough.

[KGun12TD]

The more I watch Derek Bennet, the more I wish he would fall to us. With that said, I'd rather Hooker or Adams!

[Kirby Jackson]

You have to trust your evaluations. That is what it comes down to. I didn't have Goff anywhere like as close to Winston as Mike and Mike. I had Goff and Wentz both with back end of the 1st grades - right around where I have Mitchell Trubisky this year (interestingly that is right about where I had Bortles too who was my top QB in the 2014 draft). The only Quarterbacks I have had in the 4 years I have been trying to evaluate and grade properly with higher grades than I currently have on Watson were Mariota and Winston. If you want me to suddenly believe there are going to be 4 Quarterbacks with higher grades than Watson in 2018 and one of them will be there when the Bills pick next year (let's say we are in that 8-12 range again) then I have a tough time believing that. Can I believe that there might be a couple in that grading range? Yes - but will they get to number 8 or 10 or 12 or whatever?

You certainly have to trust your scouting. The 2018 class has been highly thought of since high school. Obviously things change but there is crazy depth there now with some high end guys. There will be a bunch of guys that have high grades and some very high grades. You like Watson and may not have 4 guys higher. You may not have 1 higher. It is possible though that some teams might have up to 6-7 higher depending on this season. Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Falk, Allen, Rudolph and Browning are highly thought of now. Some will rise and others will fall but it is a great starting point.

[jeffismagic]

 

Without going too far off topic OJ Howard isn't a guy available year after year. I haven't seen his grade but I'd venture to say that he has the highest TE grade in years. The same goes for Hooker and Adams. They are elite prospects and would be the best at their respective positions in most drafts.

 

Howard is not what you normally want in a top ten pick. You don't draft guys with no production top 5 or top ten. There is TE prospect just as good as Howard in this draft. His name is David Njoku. He also has ridiculous upside.

 

Adams? He is elite. But he will be gone before we pick.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think there is no doubt that Tyrod has been a success as far as doing as much as you can expect from a guy drafted in the 6th round and signed to a cheap FA contract in 2015. The difference is that Buffalo asks far less of Tyrod than the other QB's you mentioned. If Tyrod was carrying the offense Bills would have just picked up the option.

 

As to Dennison, I love the Shanahan system. We shall see how creative Dennison himself is soon enough.

They try to win. He is 15-14. He has more TDs than all of those guys but Dalton (he has 50 to TTs 47). He has less INTs than all of them. How is that being asked to do less? His offense has been top 10 DVOA the last 2 years. You can easily make an argument that he's been better than Tannehill, Smith and Flacco. In fact, you'd have a tough time putting them ahead. I am giving them the benefit of the doubt being in the same tier. As an example Tannehill has 2 less TDs and double the INTs.

[Bronxbomber21]

If any of the following are available Adams, Foster, Hooker, Allan, Lattimore & Howard I take them at ten.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Howard, Foster, Adams, Hooker

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Howard is not what you normally want in a top ten pick. You don't draft guys with no production top 5 or top ten. There is TE prospect just as good as Howard in this draft. His name is David Njoku. He also has ridiculous upside.

 

Adams? He is elite. But he will be gone before we pick.

Njoku is too boom or bust for the top 10 (but has high upside). Howard's production is more about the system than the player. When called upon he produced. He has a high ceiling and floor which is what I need in a top 10 pick. I want a guy that at worst is a solid starter and at best is an All-Pro.

[GunnerBill]

It is possible though that some teams might have up to 6-7 higher depending on this season. Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Falk, Allen, Rudolph and Browning are highly thought of now. Some will rise and others will fall but it is a great starting point.

 

Of course and if that is what the Bills think that there are potentially 7 QBs better in next year's class then fine. But if they have any of the 2017 guys in the range I have Watson then they should pick that Quarterback at #10 if he is there and not wait for the possible magic unicorns in 2018 because we may well be back in this position next year with no sure things or 1 sure thing that is well out of the Bills drafting range.

Njoku is too boom or bust for the top 10 (but has high upside). Howard's production is more about the system than the player. When called upon he produced. He has a high ceiling and floor which is what I need in a top 10 pick. I want a guy that at worst is a solid starter and at best is an All-Pro.

 

I am with Jeff. I don't think Howard is a top 10 player either. I do have him ahead of Njoku but I'd have a hard time being excited about OJ Howard at #10. Projections without production are not top 10 picks in my opinion.

[jeffismagic]

Njoku is too boom or bust for the top 10 (but has high upside). Howard's production is more about the system than the player. When called upon he produced. He has a high ceiling and floor which is what I need in a top 10 pick. I want a guy that at worst is a solid starter and at best is an All-Pro.

 

Howard and Njoku are similar prospects to me. I would want to measure their desire in person. Right now I would lean Njoku because he has far more burst. Howard is fast but it takes him far longer to get there. I want sudden when I throw the guy the ball at 15 yards.