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"Experts" Picks Week 7 vs the Jags (London)


CodeMonkey

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CBS with Spread (Bills -4.5) : 6 take the Bills and 2 take the Jags. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/7)

CBS Straight Up: 7 take the Bills and 1 (what is La Canfora smokin?) took the Jags. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/7)

ESPN: 11 take the Bills and 2 are taking the Jags. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)

Microsoft Cortana (Went 9-5 in week 6): Bills 67% chance to win. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)

FiveThirtyEight: (Went 12-2 (again) in week 6): Bills 76% chance to win. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)

Amos: (Went 10-4 in week 6) Bills 69% chance to win. (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-7-predictions/)

FiveThirtyEight predicts a 8-8 record for the Bills this season with a 29% (down from 45%) chance of making the playoffs and a 1% (unchanged) chance of winning it all.

Amos predicts a 9-7 record for the Bills this season.

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season with a 27.4% (down from 53%) chance of making the playoffs.

Edited by CodeMonkey
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It sure is. They have enough data now for that ELO model to be very accurate. Comforting that it picks the Bills Sunday by a wide margin :)

 

Has anyone bet on games using their model? Are they picking versus the spread? Thinking people could win a boatload of money by following that model...

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Has anyone bet on games using their model? Are they picking versus the spread? Thinking people could win a boatload of money by following that model...

They pick straight up. But if you look on the page they do show what they call the ELO Point Spread. Which for this week is Bills -8 versus the betting spread which is Bills -4.5.

But 3.5 points is pretty tight considering the model doesn't know about injuries etc. Bet that at your own risk :)

Edited by CodeMonkey
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They pick straight up. But if you look on the page they do show what they call the ELO Point Spread. Which for this week is Bills -8 versus the betting spread which is Bills -4.5.

But 3.5 points is pretty tight considering the model doesn't know about injuries etc. Bet that at your own risk :)

Maybe they are factoring the sports sleep expert that works for the OKC Thunder who says "bet the farm on the Bills"

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Week 7 forecast: Perfect storm?

Five teams remain undefeated, but only two are in action this week: Tom Brady's Patriots and Cam Newton's Panthers. Will either fall on Sunday? Elliot Harrison predicts each Week 7 game.

 

BUF.png 24 JAC.png 14

 

Last week in this space, I promised that I would not pick the Jags to win another game if they blew it at home to the Texans. So I am sticking to that ... this week. Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins have all been ruled out of this game by the Bills. That's not gonna help Watkins get the ball more. Speaking of grumbling Bills, perhaps the defensive linemen will channel their anger on the field and create a few sacks and takeaways this week. Buffalo needs those impact plays in London -- sans the Bills' impact offensive players. Meanwhile, the Allens have caught 57 balls as a WR tandem in Jacksonville, but the Jags aren't good enough to overcome silly turnovers on offense. Enough with the garbage-time fantasy stats, Blake Bortles. Be careful with the football. #BUFvsJAX

 

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@SportsCenter

Carl has some strong feelings about the Buffalo Bills. Check out Carl's Stone Cold Lock of the Century...of the Week http://es.pn/1KvPTXc

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:13957957

 

Was going to post this - AMAZING. :beer:

 

The AM sports bar rant and "every other rotavirus in coach form that Buffalo has hired over the years." line kill it!

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@DonBanks

Jets defense can play the physical style that has given Tom Brady trouble in the past: Week 7 predictions column: http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/10/23/nfl-week-7-picks-scores-predictions-schedule

bills-jaguars-week-7.jpg

 

The Jaguars have played the good solider and agreed to hold one “home” game a year in London through at least 2020, as the league desired. But is a steady diet of Jaguars games really the best scenario for football fans in England? Sunday’s Bills-Jags “Breakfast at Wembley” matchup is the 13th game in the London series, which means there have been 26 teams making the trek across the pond since 2007. Of those 26 teams, only eight clubs (31%) had a winning record going into the game, and there have been nearly that many winless teams take the field in London. Jacksonville is making its third London trip in three years, having lost badly to San Francisco and Dallas the past two seasons. A good showing this time by the Jaguars would at the minimum make them more palatable to watch. And with Buffalo missing key players like Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Karlos Williams and Kyle Williams, if not now Jacksonville, when?

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