Alphadawg7 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 (edited) There is a lot of over exaggeration IMO going on about who much more effective our offense has been. I don't think we have had played consistently well as an offense since week 2. Jets game, the scoreboard looks great, but we also had 9 three and outs and were very inconsistent still offensively. For me, I gave the offense a B- or a C+ that day as they failed to capitalize on a lot of opportunities. So I decided to look at this offense this year versus last year using the most recognized offensive stats used in analyzing efficiency. 2014: EJ and Orton at QB 2013: EJ, Thad, and Tuel at QB Yards Per Game: Worse 2014 - 331.0 (23rd) 2013 - 338.1 (19th) First Downs Per Game: Worse 2014 - 17.3 (30th) 2013 - 18.8 (22nd) 3rd down conversion: Better 2014 - 36.7% (26th) 2013 - 34.3% (29th) Red Zone TD Conversion: Worse 2014 - 41.2% (32nd) 2013 - 47.7% (29th) Points Per Game: Even 2014 - 21.2 (23rd) 2013 - 21.2 (22nd) Below are two critical Defensive Stats: Average Scoring Margin: Better 2014: 1.0 (18th) 2013: -3.1 (22nd) Opponents Points Per Game: Better 2014: 20.2 (7th) 2013: 24.2 (21st) I have to admit, as critical as I have been about the offense for weeks now, I was even surprised to see the results. We are worse in most of those categories like First Downs, Red Zone %, Yards Per Game, and even on points per game. Only improvement is slight improvement on 3rd down %, however we are still ranked only 26th in the league. The most telling stat for me is the average scoring margin and our defense. Last year it was negative at -3.1 and this year its positive at 1.0. We are allowing 4 points per game less which is over a 16% reduction from last year and why we went from 21st to 7th. This is reflective in our record as well. Last year we had a negative point margin, meaning we lose close games, which we did. This year we have a 3.1 margin meaning we win more of the close games, which we have. That has been the difference in our record this year. In my opinion, I think this paints a picture at just how bad Hackett is. The level of talent on this team is better than this and we are getting less efficient not more efficient under his continued horrible game management. I think everyone would agree we have MORE offensive talent this year than last year. We lost Stevie, Thad and Tuel but gained Watkins, Williams, Bryce, Boobie, and Orton (not to mention we added more talent on the OL). FIRE HACKETT ALREADY Edited November 13, 2014 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 And I forgot to add that penalties are worse in 2014 too... 2014 - 8.2 per game (29th) 2013 - 6.9 per game (25th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not shocking. Really? For all the hype about how much better the offense is this year, this didn't surprise you? Especially considering the disaster we had all year last year at the QB position and all the offensive injuries? I was actually quite surprised that it was worse this year in so many areas. I didn't expect a big improvement, but I expected to be slightly improved in some of those areas I posted. Coaching has been horrendous...how do you add more talent, have less injuries, and still get worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 (edited) There was a reason we regard Fitz as a game manager. The problems he faced on 3rd down were simple in that he lacked talent that we now have - both he, himself and across the board. The OL may have been marginally better. Good game managers spread the ball around, lead their team and allow for good opportunities to win. bwahaha i'm an idiot. meant EJ. EJ is a game manager more then a gunslinger. Edited November 13, 2014 by jboyst62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm wondering what the median stats are for the entire league, or good teams, or bad teams even. Subtle improvements in stats might translate to lots more wins. What about 4th quarter stats? Fitz put up some pretty good stats, but would blow it in the last 10 minutes or so. Just so many variables... It feels like the offense is better overall, but the Red Zone performance is still holding them back. I don't need stats to know that. Watching the games is always trumps stats for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 There was a reason we regard Fitz as a game manager. The problems he faced on 3rd down were simple in that he lacked talent that we now have - both he, himself and across the board. The OL may have been marginally better. Good game managers spread the ball around, lead their team and allow for good opportunities to win. We didn't have Fitz last year...we had EJ, Thad, and Tuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Really? For all the hype about how much better the offense is this year, this didn't surprise you? Especially considering the disaster we had all year last year at the QB position and all the offensive injuries? I was actually quite surprised that it was worse this year in so many areas. I didn't expect a big improvement, but I expected to be slightly improved in some of those areas I posted. Coaching has been horrendous...how do you add more talent, have less injuries, and still get worse? I would like to see the difference between possessions. How much better or worse are the QB's doing at spreading the ball around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm wondering what the median stats are for the entire league, or good teams, or bad teams even. Subtle improvements in stats might translate to lots more wins. What about 4th quarter stats? Fitz put up some pretty good stats, but would blow it in the last 10 minutes or so. Just so many variables... It feels like the offense is better overall, but the Red Zone performance is still holding them back. I don't need stats to know that. Watching the games is always trumps stats for me. Not to sound like a broken record, but we didn't have Fitz last year...it was EJ, Thad, and Tuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not to sound like a broken record, but we didn't have Fitz last year...it was EJ, Thad, and Tuel. I had meant EJ. A lot of those stats are reflective of EJ. Thad got a good chunk of yards but all that was a wash against Tuel. EJ provided us great distribution last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I would like to see the difference between possessions. How much better or worse are the QB's doing at spreading the ball around... They don't have a possessions average, but they have average plays that I could find. Plays per game: 2014 - 63.8 (19th) 2013 - 69.8 (3rd) I'm wondering what the median stats are for the entire league, or good teams, or bad teams even. Subtle improvements in stats might translate to lots more wins. What about 4th quarter stats? Fitz put up some pretty good stats, but would blow it in the last 10 minutes or so. Just so many variables... It feels like the offense is better overall, but the Red Zone performance is still holding them back. I don't need stats to know that. Watching the games is always trumps stats for me. Watching the games trumps stats for me too, I agree with you on that. And watching the games this year still shows me the offense isn't very consistent or efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 They don't have a possessions average, but they have average plays that I could find. Plays per game: 2014 - 63.8 (19th) 2013 - 69.8 (3rd) Memory failing me, clearly, how much did we run the no huddle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Memory failing me, clearly, how much did we run the no huddle? I don't remember really...feels like we didn't run it that much, at least not in the traditional sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 (edited) Really? For all the hype about how much better the offense is this year, this didn't surprise you? Especially considering the disaster we had all year last year at the QB position and all the offensive injuries? I was actually quite surprised that it was worse this year in so many areas. I didn't expect a big improvement, but I expected to be slightly improved in some of those areas I posted. Coaching has been horrendous...how do you add more talent, have less injuries, and still get worse? None wildly different. 7 yards a game, identical points. Production amounts to 60 yards different total. We were playing poorly enough to have a qb benched, we went like 3 quarters without a first down in our high scoring game. Outside of the pats game we haven't had more than 1 sustained td drive in any game.we are like last in yards per drive (or were last week, haven't looked today).... Not shocking we aren't seeing many first downs. Leading the league in fumbles both years. Generally speaking not well coached in my opinion and I haven't been shy about it. I would've guessed 6 of one half dozen of the other for the two years and think it roughly is. Edited November 13, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 How many games did CJ and Freddy miss last year? What was their YPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not to sound like a broken record, but we didn't have Fitz last year...it was EJ, Thad, and Tuel. Yeah, I know. I was using him as an example of someone that skews overall statistics. My bad, I figured people would understand that. Thank you very much. Watching the games trumps stats for me too, I agree with you on that. And watching the games this year still shows me the offense isn't very consistent or efficient. I agree, but I still think it's better than last years offense, in actual play, if not in stats. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 There is a lot of over exaggeration IMO going on about who much more effective our offense has been. I don't think we have had played consistently well as an offense since week 2. Jets game, the scoreboard looks great, but we also had 9 three and outs and were very inconsistent still offensively. For me, I gave the offense a B- or a C+ that day as they failed to capitalize on a lot of opportunities. So I decided to look at this offense this year versus last year using the most recognized offensive stats used in analyzing efficiency. 2014: EJ and Orton at QB 2013: EJ, Thad, and Tuel at QB Yards Per Game: Worse 2014 - 331.0 (23rd) 2013 - 338.1 (19th) First Downs Per Game: Worse 2014 - 17.3 (30th) 2013 - 18.8 (22nd) 3rd down conversion: Better 2014 - 36.7% (26th) 2013 - 34.3% (29th) Red Zone TD Conversion: Worse 2014 - 41.2% (32nd) 2013 - 47.7% (29th) Points Per Game: Even 2014 - 21.2 (23rd) 2013 - 21.2 (22nd) Below are two critical Defensive Stats: Average Scoring Margin: Better 2014: 1.0 (18th) 2013: -3.1 (22nd) Opponents Points Per Game: Better 2014: 20.2 (7th) 2013: 24.2 (21st) I have to admit, as critical as I have been about the offense for weeks now, I was even surprised to see the results. We are worse in most of those categories like First Downs, Red Zone %, Yards Per Game, and even on points per game. Only improvement is slight improvement on 3rd down %, however we are still ranked only 26th in the league. The most telling stat for me is the average scoring margin and our defense. Last year it was negative at -3.1 and this year its positive at 1.0. We are allowing 4 points per game less which is over a 16% reduction from last year and why we went from 21st to 7th. This is reflective in our record as well. Last year we had a negative point margin, meaning we lose close games, which we did. This year we have a 3.1 margin meaning we win more of the close games, which we have. That has been the difference in our record this year. In my opinion, I think this paints a picture at just how bad Hackett is. The level of talent on this team is better than this and we are getting less efficient not more efficient under his continued horrible game management. I think everyone would agree we have MORE offensive talent this year than last year. We lost Stevie, Thad and Tuel but gained Watkins, Williams, Bryce, Boobie, and Orton (not to mention we added more talent on the OL). FIRE HACKETT ALREADY It's potentially the start of a decent analysis . But is this truly an apples to apples comparison? For instance , are the defenses that we faced through the first 9 games the same in terms of ranking ? I suspect it's not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 (edited) How many games did CJ and Freddy miss last year? What was their YPC? Um, you have hated on CJ for 2 years...now you want use him as a reason for the offensive decline? lol. Second CJ and Fred played hurt the whole year, our top 4 WRs missed games with injuries, and we went through 3 QBs with injuries, 2 of which aren't even good backups let alone starters (Thad and Tuel). There is less injuries this year, and more overall talent. We lost Stevie, Thad and Tuel on offense and gained Watkins, Williams, Orton, Bryce and Boobie. We even added more help on the OL. There is no excuse for our offense to be worse in most key areas this year. Not to mention we had rookie coaches last year who should be able to get more out their players this year. Yeah, I know. I was using him as an example of someone that skews overall statistics. My bad, I figured people would understand that. Thank you very much. I agree, but I still think it's better than last years offense, in actual play, if not in stats. Thank you very much. lol no worries, you were just the second person to bring up Fitz and I thought there was confusion of this being a comparison to Fitzs last year, which it was not. It's potentially the start of a decent analysis . But is this truly an apples to apples comparison? For instance , are the defenses that we faced through the first 9 games the same in terms of ranking ? I suspect it's not . Looking at last years schedule, I would say the defenses quality is comparable based on what we have seen on average so far and what we faced last year. This is subjective of course and will be easier to determine once this season concludes and you have equal sample sizes. Edited November 13, 2014 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I think Marrone and the gang are good enough to get the team out of the cellar, and make it interesting enough for a truly good coach to accept the job. "Thanks Doug, I'll take it from here..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah, I agree that Whaley has earned a spot. He knows what he is doing...but the Coaching has been a fail. Up to this point, I have been less harsh on Marrone than Hackett, but going for it on 4th and 10 against KC was about the dumbest call I have seen, even it works. Its these kinds of decisions that baffle me. I like an aggressive coach, but that was stupid. There was over 2 minutes left and we had multiple timeouts and the 2 min warning in a game our defense had been stellar. Not to mention a Kicker who already hit a 58 yard game winner against Det. You take the 3 points, make it a one point game and bet your D gets you the ball back for another crack at a FG. Maybe if it was 4th and short...but not 4th and 10. Its not like we have an offense like the Broncos, Pats, Indy, GB, or NO that can make ten yard plays. On 3rd and long our go to is a 4 yard pass for crying out loud. I am rapidly losing faith in Marrone as the OL has regressed, too many penalties and this team can't get out of its own way. Hackett is by far the first fire IMO. Schwartz on the other hand has improved just about every defensive category, and many dramatically including points allowed per game and rushing yards per game. He and Whaley are all that should stay out of the prominent positions. I think Marrone and the gang are good enough to get the team out of the cellar, and make it interesting enough for a truly good coach to accept the job. "Thanks Doug, I'll take it from here..." hahaha, nice...agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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