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O-line fans, this is YOUR YEAR!


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I had a thought about where the Bills may be headed in FA, the draft, and next season.

 

I think that there is no front office in the league that believes they can use the Pats as the model for their franchise. The reasons go very deep but just one example is that Tom Brady will make 1/2 of what Peyton makes yet has won 2 SB's and may win 3. Either Tom has duct taped his agents mouth shut or his agent is in a coma, because pretty damn soon here these players are going to start to want to be paid like top league players. Tom is considered by many to be a top 5 QB in the league yet Drew Bledsoe makes more than he does? Are you frikkin kidding me? No other team will abtually believe they can make that huge discrepancy happen for their squad so that they can spread the money around and build a team like the Pats.

 

So, I see some very interesting similiarities between the Bills and Pitt. Consider this:

 

1) Both teams entered the year with an average vet QB and a newly drafted 1st round QB.

 

2) Both teams have a great RB

 

3) Both teams have a great defense and furthermore neither team has a dominant pass rusher and both teams have a very good LB corp

 

4) Both teams have a very good WR corp, we are one player shy of Pitt, where we have 2 very good WR's and Pitt has 3.

 

5) Both teams are about the same as far as TE, with Pitt having the edge probably but we have the edge as far as a FB goes.

 

6) Both teams have a good special teams group.

 

7) Both teams have relatively young and talented Head Coaches and a good front office.

 

8) And most importantly, Pitt has the best o-line in the league and although our o-line improved mid season and could and sometimes did dominate, this may be our largest need going into the offseason; heres why:

 

I think Tom Donahoe is in a situation similar to Pitt where their starting QB is average and they may want to build their team around a young talented QB. Tom saw Pitt have great success by supporting Big Ben, as far as personnel wise and especially their o-line, and giving him every reason to succeed. He then responded and got them deep into the playoffs (not just him of course and thats the point here). I think Tom wants to lean towards starting youth but knows he needs to use Pitt as a model to do it. He needs to have a great o-line that can keep rushers at bay and give Losman time, without pressure to make the right decisions. He knows that a rattled Losman means more mistakes and more losses. Ben had plenty of time and responded well, Pitt had a great running game which allowed them to not have to count on Ben to throw as much. We can be the same and are already as far as our RB goes, but when we need to pass we need to give Losman plenty of time. A better line makes Losman and McGahee better and makes their lives easier. This may be his plan going forward:

 

1) DONT re-sign Jennings until the market is set and the available LT's are set. I think Tom believes that one of the premiere LT's will hit the market this year. There are 2 teams specifically that may need to use their franchise tag elsewhere; Seattle and Philly. Philly has both Tra Thomas and Corey Simon out there as UFA, Seattle has Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and Walter Jones. I think Tom believes one of these teams may use their franchise tag elsewhere. That means that we could go a long way to build a very very good, dependable o-line by adding a LT stud. Why would Tom sign Jennings when one of the studs may be out there? I dont think he will, patience may be a virtue here. I think he waits, sees who is or is not out there, and then grabs a stud or if none are available, re-signs Jennings. So, I believe the LT spot is locked up long term for us this year!

 

2) We must continue to build the o-line as far as the LG spot goes. I am hearing that the Bills really like David Baas in the draft from Mich, this is interesting because the other 2 top G's dont double as centers, Baas does. I think Tom is adding versatility by grabbing a LG who could start at either LG or C. I DO believe that the Bills are happy with Teague at center but why not add to the equation with a bonafide C or LG in one package? Baas is the second coming of Steve Hutchinson who was one of the reasons for Shauns success up there in Sea. Tom knows one of the top 3 will drop to him in the 2nd.

 

3) Tom will add another WR. Again more weapons means more options for our young QB and that means better success. I think the Reed experiment is about done and we may head in a different direction this year. I think this comes from the draft.

 

4) I also think we add a stud TE, Pitt really doesnt have one, but we would want to continue to add options. Franks is the most likely, maybe Becht, I dont see much from the draft outside of Heath Miller but he will be gone by the 2nd.

 

So, I think the plan may be to build a great o-line FINALLY, and then start Losman and allow him to grow without crazy pressure on him to win games. The supporting cast is the key to having success like Pitt. I dont Losman, if he is the starter, will win 15 games like Ben, but with a great o-line, a great year from McGahee, a great D, good special teams, a great WR corp, and a good TE, we can win enough games to get into the playoffs. Our best chance for success with Losman early and for a sustained period of time is to build a stud line, and TOM KNOWS IT!!!!

 

Hemet, Bills NYC, this is YOUR year!!!! Im with ya!

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I had a thought about where the Bills may be headed in FA, the draft, and next season.

 

I think that there is no front office in the league that believes they can use the Pats as the model for their franchise. The reasons go very deep but just one example is that Tom Brady will make 1/2 of what Peyton makes yet has won 2 SB's and may win 3. Either Tom has duct taped his agents mouth shut or his agent is in a coma, because pretty damn soon here these players are going to start to want to be paid like top league players. Tom is considered by many to be a top 5 QB in the league yet Drew Bledsoe makes more than he does? Are you frikkin kidding me? No other team will abtually believe they can make that huge discrepancy happen for their squad so that they can spread the money around and build a team like the Pats.

 

So, I see some very interesting similiarities between the Bills and Pitt. Consider this:

 

1) Both teams entered the year with an average vet QB and a newly drafted 1st round QB.

 

2) Both teams have a great RB

 

3) Both teams have a great defense and furthermore neither team has a dominant pass rusher and both teams have a very good LB corp

 

4) Both teams have a very good WR corp, we are one player shy of Pitt, where we have 2 very good WR's and Pitt has 3.

 

5) Both teams are about the same as far as TE, with Pitt having the edge probably but we have the edge as far as a FB goes.

 

6) Both teams have a good special teams group.

 

7) Both teams have relatively young and talented Head Coaches and a good front office.

 

8) And most importantly, Pitt has the best o-line in the league and although our o-line improved mid season and could and sometimes did dominate, this may be our largest need going into the offseason; heres why:

 

I think Tom Donahoe is in a situation similar to Pitt where their starting QB is average and they may want to build their team around a young talented QB. Tom saw Pitt have great success by supporting Big Ben, as far as personnel wise and especially their o-line, and giving him every reason to succeed. He then responded and got them deep into the playoffs (not just him of course and thats the point here). I think Tom wants to lean towards starting youth but knows he needs to use Pitt as a model to do it. He needs to have a great o-line that can keep rushers at bay and give Losman time, without pressure to make the right decisions. He knows that a rattled Losman means more mistakes and more losses. Ben had plenty of time and responded well, Pitt had a great running game which allowed them to not have to count on Ben to throw as much. We can be the same and are already as far as our RB goes, but when we need to pass we need to give Losman plenty of time. A better line makes Losman and McGahee better and makes their lives easier. This may be his plan going forward:

 

1) DONT re-sign Jennings until the market is set and the available LT's are set. I think Tom believes that one of the premiere LT's will hit the market this year. There are 2 teams specifically that may need to use their franchise tag elsewhere; Seattle and Philly. Philly has both Tra Thomas and Corey Simon out there as UFA, Seattle has Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and Walter Jones. I think Tom believes one of these teams may use their franchise tag elsewhere. That means that we could go a long way to build a very very good, dependable o-line by adding a LT stud. Why would Tom sign Jennings when one of the studs may be out there? I dont think he will, patience may be a virtue here. I think he waits, sees who is or is not out there, and then grabs a stud or if none are available, re-signs Jennings. So, I believe the LT spot is locked up long term for us this year!

 

2) We must continue to build the o-line as far as the LG spot goes. I am hearing that the Bills really like David Baas in the draft from Mich, this is interesting because the other 2 top G's dont double as centers, Baas does. I think Tom is adding versatility by  grabbing a LG who could start at either LG or C. I DO believe that the Bills are happy with Teague at center but why not add to the equation with a bonafide C or LG in one package? Baas is the second coming of Steve Hutchinson who was one of the reasons for Shauns success up there in Sea. Tom knows one of the top 3 will drop to him in the 2nd.

 

3) Tom will add another WR. Again more weapons means more options for our young QB and that means better success. I think the Reed experiment is about done and we may head in a different direction this year. I think this comes from the draft.

 

4) I also think we add a stud TE, Pitt really doesnt have one, but we would want to continue to add options. Franks is the most likely, maybe Becht, I dont see much from the draft outside of Heath Miller but he will be gone by the 2nd.

 

So, I think the plan may be to build a great o-line FINALLY, and then start Losman and allow him to grow without crazy pressure on him to win games. The supporting cast is the key to having success like Pitt. I dont Losman, if he is the starter, will win 15 games like Ben, but with a great o-line, a great year from McGahee, a great D, good special teams, a great WR corp, and a good TE, we can win enough games to get into the playoffs. Our best chance for success with Losman early and for a sustained period of time is to build a stud line, and TOM KNOWS IT!!!!

 

Hemet, Bills NYC, this is YOUR year!!!! Im with ya!

222591[/snapback]

 

Yay a long post.

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Yay a long post.

222598[/snapback]

 

 

Am I missing something? Isnt this where we talk Bills? Is there some rule against trying to be thorough?

 

Your sitting at your computer reading posts, what exactly are you in such a hurry to do?

 

GHEEEZ! <_<

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You lost me at Pittsburgh having a great RB. Bettis is good still but he is several years past his prime.

 

Staley on the otherhand, when healthy is a very good back. Again not great and very injury prone. He has flaws and gaps in his game.

 

Neither , IMHO is as good as Willis has shown and Willis is only going to get better.

 

As far as a signing goes. If the Bills do not plan on draft a tackle early, I would like to see Jennings gone, period. He is an average LT at best and only when heallthy. I would rather see Williams move to the left and sign Kazeem Mckenzie from the Jets for the RT spot. He is a free agent and a great RT. If Williams can show the dedication and quickness he did the second half of the year that solves a lot of problems. Plus Mckenzie could be had fairly cheap in comparison to a LT stud, even cheaper than resigning Jennings, by a lot.

 

The other piece of the puzzle is that Williams will not be able to protect a LG at least not yet. So we also need to sign a LG. This IMHO is probably going to be our most important pickup this offseason. One choice to look at is Bennie Anderson from the Ravens. They have a great Oline, which means good coaching. He is their backup LG, and would be an upgrade over everything we have, would come cheaper for the chance to start and has shown good skills. Of course Andruzzi who is the starter for NE would be good as well, but would probably cost us more. Both are young, but I think Anderson plays both Guard spots, is a little younger and comes from the Ravens who have just had a good Online for several years now.

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You lost me at Pittsburgh having a great RB.  Bettis is good still but he is several years past his prime. 

 

Staley on the otherhand, when healthy is a very good back.  Again not great and very injury prone.  He has flaws and gaps in his game. 

 

Neither , IMHO is as good as Willis has shown and Willis is only going to get better.

 

As far as a signing goes.  If the Bills do not plan on draft a tackle early, I would like to see Jennings gone, period.  He is an average LT at best and only when heallthy.  I would rather see Williams move to the left and sign Kazeem Mckenzie from the Jets for the RT spot.  He is a free agent and a great RT.  If Williams can show the dedication and quickness he did the second half of the year that solves a lot of problems.  Plus Mckenzie could be had fairly cheap in comparison to a LT stud, even cheaper than resigning Jennings, by a lot. 

 

The other piece of the puzzle is that Williams will not be able to protect a LG at least not yet.  So we also need to sign a LG.  This IMHO is probably going to be our most important pickup this offseason.  One choice to look at is Bennie Anderson from the Ravens.  They have a great Oline, which means good coaching.  He is their backup LG, and would be an upgrade over everything we have, would come cheaper for the chance to start and has shown good skills.  Of course Andruzzi who is the starter for NE would be good as well, but would probably cost us more.  Both are young, but I think Anderson plays both Guard spots, is a little younger and comes from the Ravens who have just had a good Online for several years now.

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All excellent points. I agree with all. Im not sure that the Bills would want to draft a T either L or R with the learning curve that will most likely bee needed. If the goal is to upgrade right away, drafting a T would work against us initially but would be a better long term move. I think that both LT and RT are critical positions on the line, maybe the MOST critical and LT would probably be the most critical of all. Now, we do save money by moving Williams to the left and I think thats a good move based on his improved footpseed this year. I like that alot because as you say, we can grab a stud or very good RT for a lot less than a stud LT and we can use the money elsewhere. Maybe rather than a stud LT, TE and then LG from the draft, we can get a Stud/good RT, TE, AND LG and then ALSO draft a G/C. I like that better. Im not forgetting about Pat but I think he re-signs here because he isnt a top DT, more like second tier. I think we get that done regardless.

 

So:

 

1) Draft a T, sure fine but not early, we need an upgrade right away and a solution at LT either Williams moves, or we sign a stud, or if niether is viable we re-sign Jennings.

 

2) If we are forced to sign a LT, we draft a starting LG rather than spend the dough on a FA. If we sign a RT and move Williams to the left, we ALSO sign a LG

 

3) We sign a TE regardless

 

4) We re-sign Williams

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I just did my own too long post on the TE slot so I will try to read your OL post and give it some thought and maybe my own too long response later today or probably tomorrow (my lovely wife is downstairs having girl talk with one of her buddies who is visiting us this weekend so I'm free to Bills out this morning but uspect we will be entertaining much of the day). Thanks for your thoughts.

 

My inital reactions as the lunchbell rings are:

 

1. I think there is actually a different framework for your restive Tom Brady salary cap impact thinking. He signed a 6th round level deal when he was drafted and it already has been extended by the Pats to give him more money than he ever got from a paycheck before even though it is far less than his market value if he were an FA. I doubt he is very restive since he both is better paid than he imagined he would be and he gets the benefit of winning SBs and is making even more money because they win SB (the cause of his recent GM suit). i see know signs that he wants to kill the goose that is laying golden eggs for him by demanding that the Pats go off contract and give him more dollars.

 

2. I agree that building a great OL is a key to the Bills being a great team. However, though I think they may use the draft and FA to get better players, I do no discount the possibility that the Bills braintrust may have decided to take the general approach of developing essentially the resources we have on hand right now into that great OL.

 

I think they could use some talent infusion. However, i do not discuount the possibility that they may actually invest in JMac and his demonstrably good job this year to try to develop the players we have into a great OL rather than hitting the market for new better players who they will teach the Bills way. JMac is the guy who got SB level play out of Dusty Ziegler and his career has not been one as best as I can tell of spening a load o get the best talent, but instead to get the best production possible out of the talent he has.

 

I will be disappointed but not shocked to see a Bills 2005 OL of:

 

1. Jennings- I think the Bills will resign him if he comes cheap and I think folks are now catching on to the fact that this market is not that huge as many NFL teams have already overspent at LT and those with something left to spend under the cap will look at Tra Thomas, Walter Jones and Orlando Pace first before they blow a wad on Jennings.

2. Smith- Already has achieved more than should reasonably be expected from him moving from the PS elsewhere to starting at LG here. Not aequate as a player in '05, but oddly did better at pass pro than run blocking even though usually pass pro is more difficult to teach. If JMac makes the no unreasonable conclusion that Smith will improve the same amount in 05 that he did in 94 maybe the Bllls see him as the starter. I don't ake this claim but maybe they do.

3. Teague- He has much improved in his play as this fairly recent player at C learns the game. he is much better at mult-tasking now an does not get bullrushed onto his wallet as much as making line calls, shotgun snaps, and the other duties a center must perform seemed to not allow him to focus on the physical job of stopping big DTs. However, he is getting this down so it is neither unreasonable to me that the Bills go with him or shift him back to the LT spot he first wanted if Jennings is gone.

4. Vilarial- God player at RG

5. MW- Stunk last off-season and the first few games but got his atttitude adjusted and seems to have righted his play. He is even a possible move to LT if Jennings goes because of his improved (not there yet but improved) play. The move actually creates potential for us as I think we have no real candidates to jump for a back-up OL role for us to guard the QB's blindside, but we do have the potential for the back-ups to assume the RT role if MW is judged capable of moving.

6. Price- In many way a more important FA signing that Jennings because Price goves us a quality nback-up at both tackle slots and another possibility who can clearly play LT in short bursts so the question is whether he could do it full time. I like him as a back-up for two slots.

7. Tucker- Filled in admirably at C for Teague when injury called him and actually gives us perhaps a starter option at LG if Smith cannot improve beyond his big improvement last year or even at RT as this was how he came into the league if MW makes the move.

8. McFarland- saw some gametime late in the season so JMac thinks something of him.

9. Peters- Most likely made a tackle in my mind to emphasize to him that his receiving may be great but his blocking is a big enough liability he will never be used that way at TE unless he learns to block. Yet his great ST play last year indicates he is clearly an athlete so maybe the braintrust sees something in practice about him I can never see and he really is a tackle.

10. Pacillo- Gotta be gone in my mind, but former NFL starters on the OL are not easily discarded an he will get another chance to change our minds though I doubt he will.

11. Esposito- On PS after doing stint in NFLE for Frankfurt where he blocked for league leading rusher. Played tackle as a starter in college so he is a definitely a project in my mind and I expect nothing out of him but JMac and the crew have him on the roster for some reason.

12. Pruce- Another PS player who apparently caught the Bills eye with his performance as a tackle for Frankfurt in NFLE another project who we have for some reason in JMac's mind but no one I expect to contribute.

 

It was interesting for me to look at the PS roster because I thought Sobieski would be there but he isn't. i assume we signed an injury settlement with him and he is gone, but appreciate any update from folks if he got plucked by another team off our PS (I think this is unlikely since he would have to go onto their active roster) or how our relationship ended.

 

In summary, we have people in place and work to do as there are couple of UFAs, but again I will not be shocked if the end result of things are that TD gets the right cost for Jennings and Price and we stand pretty pat because JMac believes he can make the whole we greater than the sum of the individual parts. I don't think he can, but I did not foresee the upgrade he led the way in creating this season. I thought he would be good (and clearly an upgrde over the not ready for primetime Vinky and Ruel) but not as good as he was.

 

Oh well, the wife calls (off for Indian food for a late lunch) but this was the too-much about the OL I had to say anyway.

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Sorry to tell you I lived in Pittsburgh from 2001-2003 and the Steelers were known for having a terrible offensive line. Thats why they brought Russ Grimm in to coach. They knew their only decent OL player was Faneca. They were young and rebuilding admittedly, but they stunk for the most part until this year.

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Sorry to tell you I lived in Pittsburgh from 2001-2003 and the Steelers were known for having a terrible offensive line. Thats why they brought Russ Grimm in to coach. They knew their only decent OL player was Faneca. They were young and rebuilding admittedly, but they stunk for the most part until this year.

The Steelers were a top-5 rushing team in 2001 and 2002. Last year they weren't as good because the O-line stunk. Since the Bills are going with the run-first offense, they need an O-line like those 2001-2002 and 2004 Steelers O-lines.

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What about trying to resign Williams and Jennings and making a run at Tra Thomas. We have 9+ million in cap room before Moulds restructures. Hopefully we can trade Drew. I am no cap expert but my guess is that would free up some cap room too. Say we could resign ours and add Tra we could move Jennings to LG. Tra Thomas-Jonas-Teaque-Villereal-Williams is a fantastic line! We really do not have too many other needs and could draft the highest rated players on our board. We could look to add another TE and further upgrade our line. I like Nugent alot too. It will be a fun draft because we do not have to draft for need

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I agree with BigDaddy12. Pittsburgh's o-line was nothing special before this last year. In this respect, Buffalo is in alot better position to improve upon this area. We have our own guru in McNally and with an addition of a player or two (and some minor tweaking) this area on the team can be flat out dominating! I also concur that we will add a player or maybe two but it won't be with an early round draft pick. It will be either thru FA or a mid to late rd draft pick. Jennings (2 rd) and Williams (#4 overall) may have curbed that appetite. Here we may all together lose Jennings? And Williams, our fine little fat friend, tortured everybody with his mysterious pre-season attitude and conditioning. Remember, some "experts" were even calling him a bust. No, the LG position seems to be the possible need. So look for an experienced FA signing here.

 

The prediction for our earlier rd draft picks will be used for defense. Safeties should be a priority for us. The linebackers (ML especially) will be building an even brighter future. On offense, a TE would be understandable, but I can't see this happening before the 4th rd. Would anybody object to a mid to late rd pick on a QB? I'd like to see this position secured for a very long time. Anyways, I don't think any of this even matters simply for the reason that the one thing that you can definitely count on is Donahoe will once again shock us all! You know, I think I'm really starting to look forward to his unpredictableness. Sick isn't it?

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Good post. I think that there is NEVER a bad time to draft good blockers.

Yes, I expect the Bills OL to improve with or without Jennings, but I dont think that Big Mike will ever have the agility or foot work to play LT. I do however hope he can develop into a dominant RT, which is OK.

 

The Bills must also get deeper (probably via the draft) at the cornerback position. Clements might leave after this season, and MaGee returns punts, so it would be impractical to not strengthen this position.

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Is there any benefit to tagging Jennings this year?

222873[/snapback]

 

 

The LT market is not set yet, and won't be until the FA lists are established or look close to being so, so the tagging option is really a market estimating game. Many fans seem to make the mistake of viewing the negotiation process as a competition between the player and the team, but I think this is the old model of the pre-CBA NFL. Rather than competition as warfare, the competition is within the framework of a growing partnership between the owners and the players.

 

However, the likely answer is not to tag JJ because my guess is that tagging him will be a pretty bad approach to any LT market. I say this because:

 

1. The Bills profitedfrom tagging Peerless, but the FA market for PP is very different from the FA market for Jennings,

2. Peerless was judged to be one of if not the best WR in FA that year. As Thomas and Jones are likely to hit the market and maybe Pace will not be taged again Jennings is no where near the top of the available LT market.

3. As a player who has never played a full season as a pro due to injury, an often penalized player and as a player who is good but can be beaten (Abraham beathim like a drum in the first Jets game) he does not seem to merit a franchise salary if he were tagged. He is solid but not a top 10 OL player.

4. The LT market has given huge contracts in the past, but exactly because so many teams have committed to LTs from the great to the average there will not be nearly the market competition for Jennings that created the past big salaries.

5. Not only do the many big LT salaries drive down the number of competitors for JJ, but overall cap levels are a limiting factor. AT for example is a place he wants to go that could use a better LT, but the 100+ million Vick contract and the big FA contract to Peerless means that this team is going to have cut players to merelh make the cap much bid big for JJ.

6. The Bills have ample replacement options for JJ in house (MW. Teague, Price) and if they move an existing player replacing a center or RT willl be cheaper than buying an LT.

 

There seem to be many reasons not to tag him and you still might get him for more money than he has ever seen bur for a relative song in terms of FA LTs.

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The LT market is not set yet, and won't be until the FA lists are established or look close to being so, so the tagging option is really a market estimating game. Many fans seem to make the mistake of viewing the negotiation process as a competition between the player and the team, but I think this is the old model of the pre-CBA NFL.  Rather than competition as warfare, the competition is within the framework of a growing partnership between the owners and the players.

 

However, the likely answer is not to tag JJ because my guess is that tagging him will be a pretty bad approach to any LT market.  I say this because:

 

1. The Bills profitedfrom tagging Peerless, but the FA market for PP is very different from the FA market for Jennings,

2. Peerless was judged to be one of if not the best WR in FA that year.  As Thomas and Jones are likely to hit the market and maybe Pace will not be taged again Jennings is no where near the top of the available LT market.

3. As a player who has never played a full season as a pro due to injury, an often penalized player and as a player who is good but can be beaten (Abraham beathim like a drum in the first Jets game) he does not seem to merit a franchise salary if he were tagged.  He is solid but not a top 10 OL player.

4. The LT market has given huge contracts in the past, but exactly because so many teams have committed to LTs from the great to the average there will not be nearly the market competition for Jennings that created the past big salaries.

5. Not only do the many big LT salaries drive down the number of competitors for JJ, but overall cap levels are a limiting factor.  AT for example is a place he wants to go that could use a better LT, but the 100+ million Vick contract and the big FA contract to Peerless means that this team is going to have cut players to merelh make the cap much bid big for JJ.

6. The Bills have ample replacement options for JJ in house (MW. Teague, Price) and if they move an existing player replacing a center or RT willl be cheaper than buying an LT.

 

There seem to be many reasons not to tag him and you still might get him for more money than he has ever seen bur for a relative song in terms of FA LTs.

222880[/snapback]

 

OK, so here we are at a crossroads. I think we should sign high priced studs and you are wanting to save money but for what? What are you saving this money for if not FA's?

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