Quarterback Air Yards: * be warned *

[NoSaint]

 

 

A couple years ago I looked at that stat when the Pats had Gronk and Hernandez and Welker and their offense was a juggernaut. Know who was down there? Brady. Another QB too, that is widely recognized as quite good - it was Rodgers I think.

 

You might note that Dalton of the 3-0 2014 playoff team Bengals and Wilson of the defending superbowl champ Broncs are flanking EJ in air yard percentage.

 

It doesn't necessarily mean what it's being said to mean here eg "very short passing game to backs out of the backfield", San-O.

 

What it means coupled with what you see on Bills tape is

1) Bills don't throw very much (we knew that from the # of pass attempts, which show the Bills in the bottom 1/3 of the league along with SEA, CIN, WSH).

2) When they do throw, they are getting a good amount of YAC from their receivers, which is linked to receiver health and longevity actually - means the guy isn't getting hammered right after the catch.

3) And in fact, a good number of their passes are dink-n-dunk passes. Please keep in mind a number of notable offenses have been run on dink-n-dunk passes. There is nothing wrong with dink-n-dunk passes that move the chains. Manuel's YPA is running 7.05. Some people (Edward's Arm comes to mind) claim the benchmark is >7.

 

ill point again to wilsons being MUCH higher last year - since no one touched that comment.

 

my takeaway is that we arent taking a ton of shots downfield, and we arent hitting the ones we do. without watching a lot of wilson im guessing that his will buoy up towards last years number as the season goes on with his proximity to EJ being a result of small sample sizes.

 

theres no one tell all stat, but i think my eye test tells me that you have to be able to push the ball semi-consistently to win in the league. that you can steal some games (and really have to steal some games) with the underneath stuff, but to be fully functional week in and week out - you have to hit more of the downfield than we are. lots of stuff can skew the numbers and i have no grasp on 3.5 vs 3.8 vs 4.0 in this specific stat though. where it becomes expceptional (good or bad) vs a function of personnel and scheme (and those numbers where it becomes noteworthy will obviously vary by team even)

[1B4IDie]

ill point again to wilsons being MUCH higher last year - since no one touched that comment.

 

my takeaway is that we arent taking a ton of shots downfield, and we arent hitting the ones we do. without watching a lot of wilson im guessing that his will buoy up towards last years number as the season goes on with his proximity to EJ being a result of small sample sizes.

 

theres no one tell all stat, but i think my eye test tells me that you have to be able to push the ball semi-consistently to win in the league. that you can steal some games (and really have to steal some games) with the underneath stuff, but to be fully functional week in and week out - you have to hit more of the downfield than we are. lots of stuff can skew the numbers and i have no grasp on 3.5 vs 3.8 vs 4.0 in this specific stat though. where it becomes expceptional (good or bad) vs a function of personnel and scheme (and those numbers where it becomes noteworthy will obviously vary by team even)

Eye Test: Wilson's long ball TD to Lockett who was smothered in coverage was a thing of beauty.

 

EJ consistently overthrowing some of the fastest WRs in the NFL when they are wide open the few times he decides to throw it long is mindboggling. EJ clearly has the strength to throw it long. Hopefully he can figure out how to put it where the guys can make a play on it. If there is ever an area that can improve with time it would be the long ball. He needs to figure out that sweet spot to connect on the long ball.

Edited September 24, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[OldNMBillsFan]

This stat does not add up.

If you go to the ESPN website

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch/league/afc/qualified/false

 

According to ESPN, the total YAC for all Bill's players is about 100 Yards. The Sporting chart has it at 415. That's a 300 yard discrepancy.

[Maddog69]

 

 

ill point again to wilsons being MUCH higher last year - since no one touched that comment.

 

my takeaway is that we arent taking a ton of shots downfield, and we arent hitting the ones we do. without watching a lot of wilson im guessing that his will buoy up towards last years number as the season goes on with his proximity to EJ being a result of small sample sizes.

 

theres no one tell all stat, but i think my eye test tells me that you have to be able to push the ball semi-consistently to win in the league. that you can steal some games (and really have to steal some games) with the underneath stuff, but to be fully functional week in and week out - you have to hit more of the downfield than we are. lots of stuff can skew the numbers and i have no grasp on 3.5 vs 3.8 vs 4.0 in this specific stat though. where it becomes expceptional (good or bad) vs a function of personnel and scheme (and those numbers where it becomes noteworthy will obviously vary by team even)

EJ has more 20+ yd completions this year than Wilson. In fact, he's tied for second most in the league.

 

Interesting to compare EJ to Wilson.

They have exactly the same number of pass attempts.

Wilson has 5 more completions for a total of 38 more yds and 3 more passing TD's.

Wilson averages about 13 more YPG rushing but EJ has a rushing TD. Wilson doesn't.

 

 

Point is, everyone seems to LOVE Wilson and HATE EJ. Statistically, there's not a huge difference. Give EJ the OL, running game and coaches in Seattle, and put Wilson here and I would love to see how they both fare.

 

The thing I want to see from EJ is a little bit more aggressiveness. Like many posters here have said (and even Marrone has alluded to) be a QB. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. I get annoyed when we get inside the opponents 25-30 yd line and dink and dunk it without taking shots to the end zone. That's where I need to see more from EJ and from Hackett.

 

[K-9]

It is not short-sighted. It is accurate.

 

EJ decides where to throw the Ball.

 

EJ is consistently deciding to throw very short.

 

EJ has deeper option than 2.33 yards on most passing plays.

 

These are all simple facts.

 

Yes the play called may have a deeper option as a later read, correct. However we have almost a full season's worth of game film and stats. EJ Manuel does not decide to air out the ball as frequently as other QBs in the NFL. It is a fact that cannot be argued against.

 

If EJ's consistent decision to throw short is a good thing or bad thing can be argued one way or another.

 

I agree that EJ ultimately decides where to go with the ball. I disagree that every receiver is an option on each play as you seem to suggest. They are called "clearing routes" for a reason.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[NoSaint]

 

EJ has more 20+ yd completions this year than Wilson. In fact, he's tied for second most in the league.

 

Interesting to compare EJ to Wilson.

They have exactly the same number of pass attempts.

Wilson has 5 more completions for a total of 38 more yds and 3 more passing TD's.

Wilson averages about 13 more YPG rushing but EJ has a rushing TD. Wilson doesn't.

 

 

Point is, everyone seems to LOVE Wilson and HATE EJ. Statistically, there's not a huge difference. Give EJ the OL, running game and coaches in Seattle, and put Wilson here and I would love to see how they both fare.

 

The thing I want to see from EJ is a little bit more aggressiveness. Like many posters here have said (and even Marrone has alluded to) be a QB. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. I get annoyed when we get inside the opponents 25-30 yd line and dink and dunk it without taking shots to the end zone. That's where I need to see more from EJ and from Hackett.

 

The Wilson point I was making is these 3 games are a WIDE variance vs the full previous season. Unless you really love golden Tate you have to think there will be a big jump for Wilson.

[Maddog69]

Wilson is playing either very near or above his career average in almost every category. Except for INT. His INT ratio this year so far is low. What jump are you expecting from him? If Wilson is what we want EJ to be, he's not that far off.

 

[NoSaint]

Wilson is playing either very near or above his career average in almost every category. Except for INT. His INT ratio this year so far is low. What jump are you expecting from him? If Wilson is what we want EJ to be, he's not that far off.

 

I'll give a hint - it's the lone stat this thread was about and I saw Wilson was considerably higher in last year compared to this year

Edited September 24, 2014 by NoSaint

[hondo in seattle]

We don't need stats to see that Hackett is bringing EJ along slowly. It's obvious watching the games.

 

The questions is: is it the right strategy?

 

When you don't throw down the field, it allows the defense to load the box. Obviously, it becomes harder to run the ball. But because opponents don't worry so much about defending the whole field, it becomes harder to pass the ball, too.

 

I wonder if EJ would be more successful if he threw down field more often. Clearly there are advantages to attacking the entire field of play.

 

Then again, we're 2-1 and tied with the Pats for 1st place in the AFCE. Maybe Marrone's and Hackett's conservatism has some merit.

[Maddog69]

 

 

I'll give a hint - it's the lone stat this thread was about and I saw Wilson was considerably higher in last year compared to this year

OK. My last reply in this thread.

Bottom line is that you think EJ sucks and found some stat that proves your point while ignoring all of the other stats that disprove your theory. I'm done wasting my time trying provide proof for something you simply refuse to see.

[NoSaint]

 

OK. My last reply in this thread.

Bottom line is that you think EJ sucks and found some stat that proves your point while ignoring all of the other stats that disprove your theory. I'm done wasting my time trying provide proof for something you simply refuse to see.

 

im actually, generally speaking, probably one of the more positive on EJ. perhaps if you werent seeking the fight you wouldnt have found it. i was merely discussing the stat that another poster brought up.

[1B4IDie]

This stat does not add up.

If you go to the ESPN website

 

http://espn.go.com/n...qualified/false

 

According to ESPN, the total YAC for all Bill's players is about 100 Yards. The Sporting chart has it at 415. That's a 300 yard discrepancy.

ESPN is clearly wrong. Sammy Watkins has 4 YAC yards by their calculations. His TD catch was all YAC.

 

I agree that EJ ultimately decides where to go with the ball. I disagree that every receiver is an option on each play as you seem to suggest. They are called "clearing routes" for a reason.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I never said every receiver was a viable option. I said that there are options deeper on 90%+ of the passing plays.

[K-9]

ESPN is clearly wrong. Sammy Watkins has 4 YAC yards by their calculations. His TD catch was all YAC.

 

 

I never said every receiver was a viable option. I said that there are options deeper on 90%+ of the passing plays.

 

Perhaps I misunderstood your meaning then.

 

As to their being deeper options on 90+% of passing plays, then Dalton and Wilson better get on the stick as well cause they are clearly stinking up the joint through three games.

 

And yes, that's a deliberately ludicrous thing to say just as "Air Yard" stats are ludicrous to cite as evidence teams don't have a decent passing game.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[A Dog Named Kelso]

EJ has more 20+ yd completions this year than Wilson. In fact, he's tied for second most in the league.

 

Interesting to compare EJ to Wilson.

They have exactly the same number of pass attempts.

Wilson has 5 more completions for a total of 38 more yds and 3 more passing TD's.

Wilson averages about 13 more YPG rushing but EJ has a rushing TD. Wilson doesn't.

 

 

Point is, everyone seems to LOVE Wilson and HATE EJ. Statistically, there's not a huge difference. Give EJ the OL, running game and coaches in Seattle, and put Wilson here and I would love to see how they both fare.

 

The problem with comparing this years numbers is that it does not take into account Wilson's history of running the read option very well. Our read option rarely includes the "opinion" portion from EJ and so it is less of a threat. Wilson whether this year or the previous 2 has kept the ball and effectively picked up critical yards.

[Orton's Arm]

any stat after 3 games doesn't say much IMO b/c just one really good or bad game/play can inflate or detract from numbers. and like others have stated, there are many factors that play into this stat.

 

I personally want to see EJ hit on the deep ball more consistently. There were a couple of open targets downfield vs. the Chargers that he overthrew.

 

> any stat after 3 games doesn't say much IMO b/c just one really good or bad game/play can inflate or detract from numbers.

 

A very good point. Given that we're only three games into the season, any stat we look at should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

That being said, I suspect that air yards per attempt is a more meaningful stat than raw air yards. Fortunately, their list is very easy to sort by air yards per attempt. At least at this point in the season, Manuel is the third-worst starting QB in terms of air yards per attempt, with a mere 2.18. Only Ryan Tannehill and Matt Cassell are worse. To put Manuel's 2.18 number into perspective, the following QBs are at or above 4.36 air yards per attempt: Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis, Drew Stanton, Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick. To repeat: Ryan Fitzpatrick currently has more than twice as many the air yards per attempt as does E.J. Manuel.

 

There is the illusion that Manuel had two good games and one bad game. That after all three games are taken together, he's shown statistical improvement over his performance as a rookie. The reality is that most of the statistical measurements used to reach that conclusion (quarterback rating, YPA, etc.) treat a 2 yard pass + 48 yard YAC the same as a completed pass 50 yards down the field. 67.7% of Manuel's passing yards have come from YAC--the second-highest total of any starting QB. The fact that Manuel's receiving threats have gotten really good at generating yards after the catch doesn't mean Manuel has improved.

 

Like you said, we're only three games into the season, and positions on that list are subject to change. I expect Austin Davis' position to fall as he faces better defenses. I expect Dalton's position to improve. But E.J. Manuel faced a good defense (Chargers), an injury-depleted defense (Dolphins), and a mediocre defense (Bears). When those three defenses are averaged together, they're fairly representative of what he's likely to encounter over the course of an entire season. Unless Manuel significantly improves the quality of his play, his current position on the air yards per attempt list is unlikely to change by very much.