Where Jerry Sullivan misses the boat (again)

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

In his column he leads off stating two things he sees as harsh truths.

 

1. The Pats really are much better than the current competition (well duhh- even if you don't think much of them the current competition has some pretty clear shortfalls which are there to be exploited- they actually pay you good money to state the obvious)?

 

2. This year proves you need a top flight QB to have a serious shot at winning the SB. He states he is sick of the Trent Dilfer example and the achievements of McNabb proves the error of this thinking.

 

Sullivan misses the boat in my view because while he is right as far as he goes that a top-flight QB is a key to an SB win (again duhh), he does not seem to see several important factors which strike me as true:

 

1. There are several avenues for getting a top-flight QB and though the method Philly chose for acquiring McNabb (drafting him in the 1st round) is one way of doing this, it is among the worst in terms of prodcuing real world positive results.

 

McNabb is great and Rush Limbaugh is stupid. However, the facts remain the facts. McNabb will be the first 1st round drafted QB to bring the team which drafted him to the SB since McNair led TN there in the 1999 season. Further, no team has chosen a QB who led the team to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

 

I'm not making this stuff up and why does this fairly obvious point seem to escape being worthy of mention by Sullivan. You don't need McNabb and his near achievements to make the point you want a top-flight QB, Brady has produced like a top-flight QB in 2 of the last 3 years and makes this point, Warner produced like a top-flight QB and was a key tio the high-flying Rams D winning it all. The thing which is different about McNabb is finally after much delay a 1st round pick even led the team which selected him to the big dance. To present this as proof positive rather than simply an exception that may prove the rule seems wacky.

 

2. Ragging on Dilfer is fine with me if you want to rag on not-so-good QBs, but if one looks at the last several SB winners and performers if you want to claim that they show the importance of having a top-flight QB, then it is clear top flight QBs come from a number of sources:

 

2003 season- 6th round draft pick beat UDFA (undrafted free agent)

2002 - UFA (unrestricted free agent) beat UFA

2001- 6th round pick beat UDFA

2000- UFA beat UFA

1999- UDFA beat 1st round draft pick

1998- Trade acquisition beat UFA

1997- Trade acquisition beat trade acquisition

1996- Trade acqusition beat 1st round draft pick.

 

Sullivan may want to put the Dilfer example to rest an aberration but in doing so he declares Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, and even Rich Gannon to be top flight QBs or else maybe Dilfer was not an abberation. It makes less difference to me as the real lesson here is that it is quite doable to get an SB capable QB as a UDFA, UFA, or even more likely as a trade acquisition than spending a 1st rounder on him.

 

3. Though McNabb does redeem 1st rounder choices in this one example, Sullivan can not ignore that the far far far (alot) far more likely occurence is that a 1st round QB choice will bring you pain. One can look past bad 1st round choices like Couch, Leaf, Smith, Ware, etcetera if you want even though they are even more frequent than the occaisional McNair. However, one cannot reasonably make the point he is making and also look past the point that even when these players perform extraordinarly well. McNabb is merely reversing 3 straight years of close but no cigar and as great as Peyton Manning is he and Ryan Leaf remain neck and neck in terms of leading the team which drafted them to the SB.

 

If you're a Blls fan then by all means root for McNabb because if he wins the big one, it will take the pressure off of JP to be the first 1st round QB choice to deliver an SB victory to the team which drafted him since Dallas chose Aikman way back in the last millennia.

 

The irony here is that if one is addicted to picking a QB in the first, there is a best case out there in terms of that choice playing a key role in leading the team which picked him and even playing an essential role in an SB win.

 

Ironically, this is actually Drew Bledsoe who led the Pats to an SB appearance in the 1996 season (only to be beaten by trade acquisition Farve) and played QB and threw the winning TD in a must win game for NE in their 2001 season SB run.

[Dawgg]

Perhaps his argument was not developed very well, but his underlying point remains: Drew Bledsoe is not a sufficient answer at the QB position. With the #1 Special Teams in the NFL, coupled with a Top 3 defense, Drew Bledsoe proved to be more of a liability than an asset.

 

Bottom Line: time to give the kid a chance and have a capable veteran on board (perhaps Bledsoe?) in case he falters.

 

In his column he leads off stating two things he sees as harsh truths.

 

1. The Pats really are much better than the current competition (well duhh- even if you don't think much of them the current competition has some pretty clear shortfalls which are there to be exploited- they actually pay you good money to state the obvious)?

 

2. This year proves you need a top flight QB to have a serious shot at winning the SB.  He states he is sick of the Trent Dilfer example and the achievements of McNabb proves the error of this thinking.

 

Sullivan misses the boat in my view because  while he is right as far as he goes that a top-flight QB is a key to an SB win (again duhh), he does not seem to see several important factors which strike me as true:

 

1. There are several avenues for getting a top-flight QB and though the method Philly chose for acquiring McNabb (drafting him in the 1st round) is one way of doing this, it is among the worst in terms of prodcuing real world positive results.

 

McNabb is great and Rush Limbaugh is stupid.  However, the facts remain the facts.  McNabb will be the first 1st round drafted QB to bring the team which drafted him to the SB since McNair led TN there in the 1999 season.  Further, no team has chosen a QB who led the team to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

 

I'm not making this stuff up and why does this fairly obvious point seem to escape being worthy of mention by Sullivan.  You don't need McNabb and his near achievements to make the point you want a top-flight QB, Brady has produced like a top-flight QB in 2 of the last 3 years and makes this point, Warner produced like a top-flight QB and was a key tio the high-flying Rams D winning it all.  The thing which is different about McNabb is finally after much delay a 1st round pick even led the team which selected him to the big dance.  To present this as proof positive rather than simply an exception that may prove the rule seems wacky.

 

2. Ragging on Dilfer is fine with me if you want to rag on not-so-good QBs, but if one looks at the last several SB winners and performers if you want to claim that they show the importance of having a top-flight QB, then it is clear top flight QBs come from a number of sources:

 

2003 season- 6th round draft pick beat UDFA (undrafted free agent)

2002 - UFA (unrestricted free agent) beat UFA

2001- 6th round pick beat UDFA

2000- UFA beat UFA

1999- UDFA beat 1st round draft pick

1998- Trade acquisition beat UFA

1997- Trade acquisition beat trade acquisition

1996- Trade acqusition beat 1st round draft pick.

 

Sullivan may want to put the Dilfer example to rest an aberration but in doing so he declares Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, and even Rich Gannon to be top flight QBs or else maybe Dilfer was not an abberation.  It makes less difference to me as the real lesson here is that it is quite doable to get an SB capable QB as a UDFA, UFA, or even more likely as a trade acquisition than spending a 1st rounder on him.

 

3. Though McNabb does redeem 1st rounder choices in this one example, Sullivan can not ignore that the far far far (alot) far more likely occurence is that a 1st round QB choice will bring you pain.  One can look past bad 1st round choices like Couch, Leaf, Smith, Ware, etcetera if you want even though they are even more frequent than the occaisional McNair.  However, one cannot reasonably make the point he is making and also look past the point that even when these players perform extraordinarly well. McNabb is merely reversing 3 straight years of close but no cigar and as great as Peyton Manning is he and Ryan Leaf remain neck and neck in terms of leading the team which drafted them to the SB.

 

If you're a Blls fan then by all means root for McNabb because if he wins the big one, it will take the pressure off of JP to be the first 1st round QB choice to deliver an SB victory to the team which drafted him since Dallas chose Aikman way back in the last millennia.

 

The irony here is that if one is addicted to picking a QB in the first, there is a best case out there in terms of that choice playing a key role in leading the team which picked him and even playing an essential role in an SB win.

 

Ironically, this is actually Drew Bledsoe who led the Pats to an SB appearance in the 1996 season (only to be beaten by trade acquisition Farve) and played QB and threw the winning TD in a must win game for NE in their 2001 season SB run.

218034[/snapback]

[Ray]

Interesting how the season plays out if McGahee plays all season and starts those first 5 games. We'll never know. It is frustrating to have the number one ST and 2nd rated D and still not make the playoffs. That is bad!

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Interesting how the season plays out if McGahee plays all season and starts those first 5 games.  We'll never know.  It is frustrating to have the number one ST and 2nd rated D and still not make the playoffs.  That is bad!

218159[/snapback]

 

 

I wondered about this also and went back and reviewed the 4 games and did some what if theorizing. My sense is that if WM had started and produced the way he produced later in the season he would have made an obvious difference. However, if he produced the way he produced in the real world when he began to play it probably would have made little difference. I reached this thought because:

 

1. In the first four games, WM got far fewer carries than he got later, but due to injuries he actually got a good chunk of carries and a chance to be a difference-maker in some of the 4 losses and he did not make a difference.

 

Jax- He got a chance to show what he could do in the 4th quarter as he was relied upon due to leg cramps suffered by Henry and he did not make the difference fpr us.

Oak- Perhaps the best case to argue that WM would have been a difference maker if we had relied upon him instead of Henry because the denial of TD in the redzone was a key. However, WM would have made a difference if he played better by taking the decision out of the refs hands as even the NFL admitted that Henry should have been awarded a go-ahead TD and MM didn't/couldn't challenge the bad call.

NE- WM was not used at all in this game so one can make a theoretical case, though such theories against one of the better Ds in the league are tough to make.

Jets- WM did not start this game but his play and an ankle injury to Henry meant that WM was the man in the second half and again was not the difference for us.

 

2. In these games TH laid down the pattern of injury and inadequacy that lost him the job, but actually these were his only and included his best performances so WM would not only have been able to be adequate right out the box but outstanding to be the difference-maker. He did not even get the chance to be adequste in a couple of the games but Henry was adequate and when WM did get the chance he showed potential but was not outstanding.

 

3. The RB problems were obviously a factor in any loss (if TH had gained 150 yards on the ground we wouldn't have lost, but poor RB play was not the main reason for our losss in these games.

 

Jax- The O provided a slim lead and the D didn't hold it with 3 unlikely Jax plays in their last drive.

Oak- We should have never let the refs decide this game but ref calls blew this one.

NE- I'm not sure how we beat this better team but this was probably Henry's best game of the season.

NYJ- Again the offense put a slim lead in the D's hand and the D allowed O'Brian to kill us.

 

Conceivably WM might have made a differnce but it looks really doubtful.

[Bill from NYC]

FFS, please. You know how much I enjoy your postings (and have for years) but you left out SACKS allowed with TH on the football field.

Now, let's throw in falling down (untouched) in front of holes for no apparent reason, dropped passes and running wrong routes. Your conclusion might change, no?

[JP-era]

In his column he leads off stating two things he sees as harsh truths.

 

1. The Pats really are much better than the current competition (well duhh- even if you don't think much of them the current competition has some pretty clear shortfalls which are there to be exploited- they actually pay you good money to state the obvious)?

 

2. This year proves you need a top flight QB to have a serious shot at winning the SB.  He states he is sick of the Trent Dilfer example and the achievements of McNabb proves the error of this thinking.

 

Sullivan misses the boat in my view because  while he is right as far as he goes that a top-flight QB is a key to an SB win (again duhh), he does not seem to see several important factors which strike me as true:

 

1. There are several avenues for getting a top-flight QB and though the method Philly chose for acquiring McNabb (drafting him in the 1st round) is one way of doing this, it is among the worst in terms of prodcuing real world positive results.

 

McNabb is great and Rush Limbaugh is stupid.  However, the facts remain the facts.  McNabb will be the first 1st round drafted QB to bring the team which drafted him to the SB since McNair led TN there in the 1999 season.  Further, no team has chosen a QB who led the team to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

 

I'm not making this stuff up and why does this fairly obvious point seem to escape being worthy of mention by Sullivan.  You don't need McNabb and his near achievements to make the point you want a top-flight QB, Brady has produced like a top-flight QB in 2 of the last 3 years and makes this point, Warner produced like a top-flight QB and was a key tio the high-flying Rams D winning it all.  The thing which is different about McNabb is finally after much delay a 1st round pick even led the team which selected him to the big dance.  To present this as proof positive rather than simply an exception that may prove the rule seems wacky.

 

2. Ragging on Dilfer is fine with me if you want to rag on not-so-good QBs, but if one looks at the last several SB winners and performers if you want to claim that they show the importance of having a top-flight QB, then it is clear top flight QBs come from a number of sources:

 

2003 season- 6th round draft pick beat UDFA (undrafted free agent)

2002 - UFA (unrestricted free agent) beat UFA

2001- 6th round pick beat UDFA

2000- UFA beat UFA

1999- UDFA beat 1st round draft pick

1998- Trade acquisition beat UFA

1997- Trade acquisition beat trade acquisition

1996- Trade acqusition beat 1st round draft pick.

 

Sullivan may want to put the Dilfer example to rest an aberration but in doing so he declares Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, and even Rich Gannon to be top flight QBs or else maybe Dilfer was not an abberation.  It makes less difference to me as the real lesson here is that it is quite doable to get an SB capable QB as a UDFA, UFA, or even more likely as a trade acquisition than spending a 1st rounder on him.

 

3. Though McNabb does redeem 1st rounder choices in this one example, Sullivan can not ignore that the far far far (alot) far more likely occurence is that a 1st round QB choice will bring you pain.  One can look past bad 1st round choices like Couch, Leaf, Smith, Ware, etcetera if you want even though they are even more frequent than the occaisional McNair.  However, one cannot reasonably make the point he is making and also look past the point that even when these players perform extraordinarly well. McNabb is merely reversing 3 straight years of close but no cigar and as great as Peyton Manning is he and Ryan Leaf remain neck and neck in terms of leading the team which drafted them to the SB.

 

If you're a Blls fan then by all means root for McNabb because if he wins the big one, it will take the pressure off of JP to be the first 1st round QB choice to deliver an SB victory to the team which drafted him since Dallas chose Aikman way back in the last millennia.

 

The irony here is that if one is addicted to picking a QB in the first, there is a best case out there in terms of that choice playing a key role in leading the team which picked him and even playing an essential role in an SB win.

 

Ironically, this is actually Drew Bledsoe who led the Pats to an SB appearance in the 1996 season (only to be beaten by trade acquisition Farve) and played QB and threw the winning TD in a must win game for NE in their 2001 season SB run.

218034[/snapback]

 

 

Well, using your recipe Drew should have taken us to the SB as we did trade for him afterall. We all now know that going to the SB under Drew aint gonna happen, and more likely it wasnt Drew who took the Pats to the SB but rather the team.

 

Warner, Garcia, Dilfer, all have done jack squat when the went to a team that wasnt as good. Hmmmmmm almost like THEY werent that good after all. The data seems to show that getting some late round clown or undrafted guy can ONLY work for teams that have all the other stuff you need to get to the dance; D, supporting cast, o-line, coaching.

 

Fact is, we are MUCH MUCH MUCH better off going with a guy that has as much talent as possible rather than trying to find the next Tom Brady.

 

You, in fact, claimed that MANY QB's were "all" we needed to get to the dance a few years back. You, in fact, claimed that Warner, Dilfer, Garcia would ALL do what Tom Bardy has done in NE for us, and was all we needed. Hell at one point you wanted us to simply pikc up Jeff Blake.

 

All the other guys that you claim are all we need havent done squat and wont without a stud team around them. We havent had a stud team, may be closer now than since our SB years, but STILL couldnt do it behind a mediocre QB named Drew.

 

Your plan really only works for the Pats and has NOT worked for any other team. If you can find the next Tom Brady, by all means, clamor for him. HE, my friend, represents the enigma, NOT the 1st round QB's.

 

Facts are facts. 6 of 8 of the playoff teams had 1st round QB's, then 3 of 4, now 1 of 2. The team that has the late round gem is NE and IMO is the ONLY team that can do it in the whole damn league.

 

Go ahead, talk about Atl and Indy all you want, even NYJ. Id MUCH prefer to simply GET to the playoffs with a 1st rounder than NOT DO IT AT ALL behind the next Warner, Dilfer, Garcia, Blake, or Bledsoe!

 

ALL of the 6 out of 8 playoff squads (round 2) had the 1st rounder that THEY drafted! Those odds are very much more in favor of OUR situation where we drafetd JP in the 1st.

 

Right about now, id LOVE to be in Indy's shoes, or Atlanta's, or Pittsburghs, or even the Jets and get in rather than talk endlessly about the next Bledsoe that is supposedly all we need while watching other teams in the playoffs!

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

 

Right about now, id LOVE to be in Indy's shoes, or Atlanta's, or Pittsburghs, or even the Jets and get in rather than talk endlessly about the next Bledsoe that is supposedly all we need while watching other teams in the playoffs!

218292[/snapback]

 

You actually misstate a number of things I have said, so read S-L-O-W-L-Y and perhaps we can overcome what is probably my own lack of articulation:

 

1. "Well, using your recipe Drew should have taken us to the SB as we did trade for him afterall."

 

Actually my whole mantra is that THERE IS NO ONE RECIPE FOR SUCCESS IN THE NFL. This all interests me because it is far less than clear at all of the one way to get this done. Not only do multiple recipes work, but one can have all the correct ingredients and because this oddly shaped ball bounces in a funny way or some stupid ref blows the coin flip it can all be for naught.

 

My point has not been about insisting on the right way to do it, but actually rising in opposition to those such as ICE who seem to insist against reality that there is only one way to do it and if we all were simply as smart as him we would realize this. I have been so repetitive about the 1st round QB point because the conventional wisdom that if you want to win the SB you must draft a stud QB in the first round like Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf or Joey Harrington has been so wrong that it amazes me that many not only endorse taking this method but claim that it is the only way achieve success when it simply has not worked out for any team since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. High risk is fine, my only question is why are folks so stone-cold certain about a method that has not produced for such a long time.

 

2. We all now know that going to the SB under Drew aint gonna happen, and more likely it wasnt Drew who took the Pats to the SB but rather the team.

 

This certainly isn't the approach I endorse since I have openly advocated that Drew should have been cut after last season and I feel TD made a mistake using out cap room to negitiaate a new deal. That being said, the reality is that DB was (and actually still is until we cut or bench him) our QB and my contention has been that even with this faux-pas we can win if we do not depend on Bledsoe who has many failings and do rely upon our TEAM. I think the real story here is that this view was proven mostly correct and made to work even far beyond my wild expectation by MM and the Bills during the streak. I am one who believes that generally few coaches can make the difference but I now am prepared to believe that MM may be one of the good ones.

 

3. Fact is, we are MUCH MUCH MUCH better off going with a guy that has as much talent as possible rather than trying to find the next Tom Brady.

 

What has happened in real life says otherwise. This is not because finding a Tom Brady (or a Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner) is easy. It ain't. It's that if one defines a QB with as much talent as possible as being Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Dante Culpepper or any of the other folks who are among the best throwers in the league, their combined number of SB wins is zero. McNabb in fact is a deviation from the norm because McNair was the last of these 1st round choices to even make the Big Dance. Its very very extremely hard to make this work by finding the next Brady it is simply harder to make this work under the limitations of the salary cap and the pressure to perform from choosing one your talented guys in the 1st round.

 

4. You, in fact, claimed that MANY QB's were "all" we needed to get to the dance a few years back. You, in fact, claimed that Warner, Dilfer, Garcia would ALL do what Tom Bardy has done in NE for us, and was all we needed. Hell at one point you wanted us to simply pikc up Jeff Blake.

 

 

I'm not sure what you are referring to here as I have tried to stay away from any stone cold lock claims. I would not be surprised if yor or someone wants to waste the time of wading through my many way too long posts to pull some quote out of context but my intent has not been to say there is but one way to do this. I did endorse for example taking Jeff Blake way back when as a replacement for RJ, but this from my standpoint was that I saw Blake as a better choice than Chris Chandler or the other FAs available at the time. I considered a trade for Bledsoe as not possible within the division and too rich for the two 1st rounders NE was asking for him. I praise TD for pulling this deal off because I see Bledsoe as having been a QB who allows a team to win better than if Blake were their starter and quite frankly I judge him as having raped BB in the 2002 season as the result was that the Bills had near record improvement of the W/L under Bledsoe to 8-8 while the SB winners missed the playoffs that year in large part due to the accelerated cap hit for trading Bledsoe.

 

Certainly BB used his knowledge of Bledsoe to collect 2 wins that year from the Bills but who cares in assessing that year's impact of the trade because we had a huge benefit and they took a huge hit.

 

The effects became a wash the next year as NE got past the cap hit and recaptured the SB, and Bledsoe went from meteoric success to horrendous failure in the second year but again the real world events conicide with my views.

 

5. Your plan really only works for the Pats and has NOT worked for any other team. If you can find the next Tom Brady, by all means, clamor for him. HE, my friend, represents the enigma, NOT the 1st round QB's.

 

My plan is to win or at least get into the SB. However, my plam is not to try to replicate the Pats but to hope for and to advocate MM doing it the Bills way. Just like politicians who try to replicate what won in the last election and end up losing, I think that finding and establishing the next thing will be the key. Perhaps the thing I am most impressed with MM/Clements for doing is that though BB has long advocated the two way player, MM actually used well and relied on this technique even before BB popularized it with his use of Troy Brown to fill in for an injured Law and Poole (they didn't suffer these injuries until mid-season). Yet it was after game 4 that you saw MM make effective two-way use of Bannan and Adams to solve our redzone issues. Using WM rather than TH was obvious because WM was a better player, but this use of defensive players on offense was different and inspired. This type of out the box approach embodies a Bills way to me.

 

Other candidates include:

 

1. Not valuing the draft as highly as most fans seem to. I think that the Bledsoe trade, the Losman trade, drafting the injured WM are actually signs that TD has a far better sense of the importance of the salary cap and the value of the draft in building a winner. its a tool but just a tool. It will not surprise me if devaluing the draft becomes part of the Bills way.

2. Recognizing that the whole must be greater than the sum of the indivdiual parts to truly be good. I will be unphased if we pick no OL players in the next draft (or merely late round projects), it strikes me as pretty reasonable to go after an FA center (center are cheaper than LTs and I like Teague better at LT than C). However, I think we have a better chance of producing a productive OL through McNally being a huge upgrade over Vinky and Ruel than us overspending to keep Jennings here. I like Jennings and by all means keep him if we can get him on the cheap (which I think may be doable because most teams have already blown their cap wad at LT and demand there may be surprisingly limited despite the huge past contracts) but overall I think we will produce more getting players who play well together rather than simply focusing on getting better players.

3. Plan B is the key. I think the Pats have done well because they did many things well but a key ingredient is they got lucky. if Bledsoe had not had his lung collapsed my bet is they would have stuck with Bledsoe long enough to miss the playoffs that year. Last year BB did a number of things well like the FA acquisition of Harrison and but his mismanagement of the Milloy deal and how the players stepped up to that and the injuries wrote the tale. I think the Bills are in a position to not merely be lucky about players stepping up and joining together, but to actual;;y do this in a planned way.

 

I' not sure exactly how you get this to work, but this is my plan or thought.

 

6. Facts are facts. 6 of 8 of the playoff teams had 1st round QB's, then 3 of 4, now 1 of 2. The team that has the late round gem is NE and IMO is the ONLY team that can do it in the whole damn league.

 

Go ahead, talk about Atl and Indy all you want, even NYJ. Id MUCH prefer to simply GET to the playoffs with a 1st rounder than NOT DO IT AT ALL behind the next Warner, Dilfer, Garcia, Blake, or Bledsoe!

 

ALL of the 6 out of 8 playoff squads (round 2) had the 1st rounder that THEY drafted! Those odds are very much more in favor of OUR situation where we drafetd JP in the 1st.

 

 

I agree that this year may well be looked at in history as the beginning of a new era of the QB. However, this may be looked at as special because in the past 1st round drafted QBs have failed to deliver SB win (since Dallas chose Aikman in 89) or even SB berths since McNair led the team which drafted him there in the 99 season.

 

Either 1st round drafted QBs are always successful or this year is different than the occurences I have based my views upon. When you see which is right I again rely upon the facts of what has happened in the past in that 1st round drafted QBs have little record of even making the SB in the past decade and a half forthe teams which drafted them.

 

Pointing to the 6 out of 8 record of achievement this year merely emphasizes how correct my read on the record was before when 1st round drafted QBs merely produced 1 out of 4 of these teams for the teams which drafted them. Very good certainly but not the only way to go certainly either. When one escalates the standard to SB wins or berths then 1st round drafted QBs becomes a non-road to success since 1999.

 

The interesting thing about this season is that given the great start I was pretty sure this would be the year that a 1st round drafted QB would finally win the SB fior the team which drafted him. many of us have our fingers and toes crossed for McNabb, but after seeing the championship games this may be yet another year where a 1st round drafted QB fails to deliver everyone's goal for the team which picked him.

[JP-era]

You actually misstate a number of things I have said, so read S-L-O-W-L-Y and perhaps we can overcome what is probably my own lack of articulation:

 

1. "Well, using your recipe Drew should have taken us to the SB as we did trade for him afterall."

 

Actually my whole mantra is that THERE IS NO ONE RECIPE FOR SUCCESS IN THE NFL.  This all interests me because it is far less than clear at all of the one way to get this done.  Not only do multiple recipes work, but one can have all the correct ingredients and because this oddly shaped ball bounces in a funny way or some stupid ref blows the coin flip it can all be for naught.

 

My point has not been about insisting on the right way to do it, but actually rising in opposition to those such as ICE who seem to insist against reality that there is only one way to do it and if we all were simply as smart as him we would realize this.  I have been so repetitive about the 1st round QB point because the conventional wisdom that if you want to win the SB you must draft a stud QB in the first round like Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf or Joey Harrington has been so wrong that it amazes me that many not only endorse taking this method but claim that it is the only way achieve success when it simply has not worked out for any team since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.  High risk is fine, my only question is why are folks so stone-cold certain about a method that has not produced for such a long time.

 

2.  We all now know that going to the SB under Drew aint gonna happen, and more likely it wasnt Drew who took the Pats to the SB but rather the team.

 

This certainly isn't the approach I endorse since I have openly advocated that Drew should have been cut after last season and I feel TD made a mistake using out cap room to negitiaate a new deal.  That being said, the reality is that DB was (and actually still is until we cut or bench him) our QB and my contention has been that even with this faux-pas we can win if we do not depend on Bledsoe who has many failings and do rely upon our TEAM.  I think the real story here is that this view was proven mostly correct and made to work even far beyond my wild expectation by MM and the Bills during the streak.  I am one who believes that generally few coaches can make the difference but I now am prepared to believe that MM may be one of the good ones.

 

3. Fact is, we are MUCH MUCH MUCH better off going with a guy that has as much talent as possible rather than trying to find the next Tom Brady.

 

What has happened in real life says otherwise.  This is not because finding a Tom Brady (or a Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner) is easy. It ain't.  It's that if one defines a QB with as much talent as possible as being Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Dante Culpepper or any of the other folks who are among the best throwers in the league, their combined number of SB wins is zero. McNabb in fact is a deviation from the norm because McNair was the last of these 1st round choices to even make the Big Dance.  Its very very extremely hard to make this work by finding the next Brady it is simply harder to make this work under the limitations of the salary cap and the pressure to perform from choosing one your talented guys in the 1st round.

 

4. You, in fact, claimed that MANY QB's were "all" we needed to get to the dance a few years back. You, in fact, claimed that Warner, Dilfer, Garcia would ALL do what Tom Bardy has done in NE for us, and was all we needed. Hell at one point you wanted us to simply pikc up Jeff Blake.

I'm not sure what you are referring to here as I have tried to stay away from any stone cold lock claims.  I would not be surprised if yor or someone wants to waste the time of wading through my many way too long posts to pull some quote out of context but my intent has not been to say there is but one way to do this.  I did endorse for example taking Jeff Blake way back when as a replacement for RJ, but this from my standpoint was that I saw Blake as a better choice than Chris Chandler or the other FAs available at the time.  I considered a trade for Bledsoe as not possible within the division and too rich for the two 1st rounders NE was asking for him.  I praise TD for pulling this deal off because I see Bledsoe as having been a QB who allows a team to win better than if Blake were their starter and  quite frankly I judge him as having raped BB in the 2002 season as the result was that the Bills had near record improvement of the W/L under Bledsoe to 8-8 while the SB winners missed the playoffs that year in large part due to the accelerated cap hit for trading Bledsoe.

 

Certainly BB used his knowledge of Bledsoe to collect 2 wins that year from the Bills but who cares in assessing that year's impact of the trade because we had a huge benefit and they took a huge hit.

 

The effects became a wash the next year as NE got past the cap hit and recaptured the SB, and Bledsoe went from meteoric success to horrendous failure in the second year but again the real world events conicide with my views.

 

5. Your plan really only works for the Pats and has NOT worked for any other team. If you can find the next Tom Brady, by all means, clamor for him. HE, my friend, represents the enigma, NOT the 1st round QB's.

 

My plan is to win or at least get into the SB.  However, my plam is not to try to replicate the Pats but to hope for and to advocate MM doing it the Bills way.  Just like politicians who try to replicate what won in the last election and end up losing, I think that finding and establishing the next thing will be the key.  Perhaps the thing I am most impressed with MM/Clements for doing is that though BB has long advocated the two way player, MM actually used well and relied on this technique even before BB popularized it with his use of Troy Brown to fill in for an injured Law and Poole (they didn't suffer these injuries until mid-season). Yet it was after game 4 that you saw MM make effective two-way use of Bannan and Adams to solve our redzone issues.  Using WM rather than TH was obvious because WM was a better player, but this use of defensive players on offense was different and inspired.  This type of out the box approach embodies a Bills way to me.

 

Other candidates include:

 

1. Not valuing the draft as highly as most fans seem to.  I think that the Bledsoe trade, the Losman trade, drafting the injured WM are actually signs that TD has a far better sense of the importance of the salary cap and the value of the draft in building a winner.  its a tool but just a tool.  It will not surprise me if devaluing the draft becomes part of the Bills way.

2. Recognizing that the whole must be greater than the sum of the indivdiual parts to truly be good.  I will be unphased if we pick no OL players in the next draft (or merely late round projects), it strikes me as pretty reasonable to go after an FA center (center are cheaper than LTs and I like Teague better at LT than C).  However, I think we have a better chance of producing a productive OL through McNally being a huge upgrade over Vinky and Ruel than us overspending to keep Jennings here. I like Jennings and by all means keep him if we can get him on the cheap (which I think may be doable because most teams have already blown their cap wad at LT and demand there may be surprisingly limited despite the huge past contracts) but overall I think we will produce more getting players who play well together rather than simply focusing on getting better players.

3. Plan B is the key. I think the Pats have done well because they did many things well but a key ingredient is they got lucky.  if Bledsoe had not had his lung  collapsed my bet is they would have stuck with Bledsoe long enough to miss the playoffs that year.  Last year BB did a number of things well like the FA acquisition of Harrison and but his mismanagement of the Milloy deal and how the players stepped up to that and the injuries wrote the tale.  I think the Bills are in a position to not merely be lucky about players stepping up and joining together, but to actual;;y do this in a planned way.

 

I' not sure exactly how you get this to work, but this is my plan or thought.

 

6. Facts are facts. 6 of 8 of the playoff teams had 1st round QB's, then 3 of 4, now 1 of 2. The team that has the late round gem is NE and IMO is the ONLY team that can do it in the whole damn league.

 

Go ahead, talk about Atl and Indy all you want, even NYJ. Id MUCH prefer to simply GET to the playoffs with a 1st rounder than NOT DO IT AT ALL behind the next Warner, Dilfer, Garcia, Blake, or Bledsoe!

 

ALL of the 6 out of 8 playoff squads (round 2) had the 1st rounder that THEY drafted! Those odds are very much more in favor of OUR situation where we drafetd JP in the 1st.

I agree that this year may well be looked at in history as the beginning of a new era of the QB.  However, this may be looked at as special because in the past 1st round drafted QBs have failed to deliver SB win (since Dallas chose Aikman in 89) or even SB berths since McNair led the team which drafted him there in the 99 season.

 

Either 1st round drafted QBs are always successful or this year is different than the occurences I have based my views upon.  When you see which is right I again rely upon the facts of what has happened in the past in that 1st round drafted QBs have little record of even making the SB in the past decade and a half forthe teams which drafted them.

 

Pointing to the 6 out of 8 record of achievement this year merely emphasizes how correct my read on the record was before when 1st round drafted QBs merely produced 1 out of 4 of these teams for the teams which drafted them.  Very good certainly but not the only way to go certainly either.  When one escalates the standard to SB wins or berths then 1st round drafted QBs becomes a non-road to success since 1999.

 

The interesting thing about this season is that given the great start I was pretty sure this would be the year that a 1st round drafted QB would finally win the SB fior the team which drafted him.  many of us have our fingers and toes crossed for McNabb, but after seeing the championship games this may be yet another year where a 1st round drafted QB fails to deliver everyone's goal for the team which picked him.

218437[/snapback]

 

 

OK, I read what you posted SLOWLY. It all makes sense for sure. My I offer some advice?

 

Why not simply state that you post what you post because you enjoy the discussion? You enjoy the banter and you dislike the "know it alls". You are very right, no one (self included) has the formula for winning. Your "mantra" is a sound one.

 

But, this is a game. And as such, is meant to be enjoyed. To me, enjoyment comes from winning the games but a close second is the NFL draft. I enjoy it when we draft guys that can out there and play. I like the guys who have people get excited over. I enjoy watching teams that excite you. Thruman, Bruce, Kelly, Reed. My kind of team. Yes, Manning, yes Vick. Players that dont just play, they DOMINATE. Thats what I enjoy about this game.

 

Personally, I DONT enjoy the Pats. I dont like watching them even if they were my team. The reason, there is NO ONE on that team that is exciting to watch to me. NO ONE! They dont have ONE star, that aint fun to me. Do they win? yes. Do they defy the odds? yes. Do they have SB wins? yes. Yes, I would love to have a SB win. But personally Id rather do it with some stars, that play like stars in big games. Just me.

 

Now, the other difference we have, is more about how you would get there; to the SB that is. I tend to want the stars, I guess because I believe stars will make up the difference when the odds are against us or when the chips are down, plus their just plain fun to watch (see above). You seem to tend to go after the bargain basement guys. Maybe you have simply argued against stars because it seems like such a "pat" answer that conflicts with your mantra (see above), or maybe you really dont mind adding stars but dont go too far out of your way to state who your idea of a star we should get, is.

 

Really, the discussion is more an effort between people like you and I, to discuss what we like discussing. For you its discussions about why there are no pat answers, for me its trying to find the pat answers, and/or trying to find the stars who can answer the Pats (god that was poetic). I come here, in part, because it is fun to talk Bills. I sense that you also feel its fun to talk Bills, so I think we have some common ground.

 

Now, I really wont ever give a sh_t what you think about Joey Harrington, I still believe he will be good,.......dammit!!!??????

 

Anyways, good points. You actually were starting to convince that we really didnt need a 1st round QB to get to teh SB for all the reasons that you stated. In a strange turn of events, this year...happened; and throw all that out the window. Again proving that YOU were correct in saying there is no pat answers to getting to and winning the SB. The data I gave seems to say teams SHOULD get a 1st round QB, and trading for Drew seems to show that getting someone elses 1st round QB ISNT a good plan. It may also show that on THIS team we need to tip the odds and get a guy who may lean more toward being a star than leaning toward being serviceable. I dont know, obviously, but thats what our team seems to be showing.

 

I feel we have ALL the pieces of the puzzle. Or, at least this teams puzzle. Our puzzle pieces may not fit on other teams and other teams players may not fit here, but I really do think we are very close. I do, however, feel that we have NOT gotten what we need from our QB position. Really, I feel we need a bit more as far as talent than what we got from Drew. And I MOSTLY think we need a change in attitude as well. Im not saying Drew is an attitude problem. But rather, that Drew doesnt have ENOUGH attitude and "go get-em" to force wins at times. Thats what I liked most abotu Kelly, and from what I hear, may be the part I like most about Losman. Id love to add some tough minded, hard assed leadership to the equation at QB. We really havent had it since Kelly.

 

So, my belief is that we can and WILL be over the top as far as having what we need to win a SB if Losmans attitude proves to be that of a Brett Favre or Manning and NOT that of Ryan Leaf. And if Losman acts like a star every no and again with some stellar throws or poor-mans-Vick-like big runs for TD's. If we manage to get EITHER from JP we have indeed upgraded from Drew, which may be our single most important task going into next season.

[GG]

FFS, please. You know how much I enjoy your postings (and have for years) but you left out SACKS allowed with TH on the football field.

Now, let's throw in falling down (untouched) in front of holes for no apparent reason, dropped passes and running wrong routes. Your conclusion might change, no?

218275[/snapback]

 

Bill, you forgot to add the customary Henry benching late in the games when the games were on the line (infrequent, but customary). Why was Sammy Morris in on critical downs? What kind of an athlete gets cramps in the opening week on a nice fall day at Orchard Park? Never mind the factoid that McGahee sealed the Jax game, if not for the bizarro non-holding call on Villareal.

[JP-era]

Bill, you forgot to add the customary Henry benching late in the games when the games were on the line (infrequent, but customary).  Why was Sammy Morris in on critical downs?  What kind of an athlete gets cramps in the opening week on a nice fall day at Orchard Park?  Never mind the factoid that McGahee sealed the Jax game, if not for the bizarro non-holding call on Villareal.

218509[/snapback]

 

 

So I have to ask you this, I may be tremendously dumb but, are you a moderator?

[GG]

So I have to ask you this, I may be tremendously dumb but, are you a moderator?

218512[/snapback]

 

Yes. No.

[Alaska Darin]

Yes.  No.

218513[/snapback]

 

You hit that one out of the park without ever taking a steroid.

[GG]

 

 

You hit that one out of the park without ever taking a steroid.

218515[/snapback]

 

I have never even spoken with anyone at BALCO.

[Typical TBD Guy]

FFS, please. You know how much I enjoy your postings (and have for years) but you left out SACKS allowed with TH on the football field.

Now, let's throw in falling down (untouched) in front of holes for no apparent reason, dropped passes and running wrong routes. Your conclusion might change, no?

218275[/snapback]

 

OBSESSED.

[Bill from NYC]

OBSESSED.

218558[/snapback]

 

Oh Dude, cant you even read a post and place it in the context to which it was written?

 

>>>>Conceivably WM might have made a differnce but it looks really doubtful.<<<<

 

The above is a quote from FFS. THAT is what I responded to. I did not initiate the thread nor the topic, did I? HE made a statement to which I responded.

Were there other factors in the 0-4 start? Of Course!!! I am still pissed about Big Mike coming into camp as a walrus, but will forgive him if he is in shape this year.

Why is it not OK to respond to a post about which one has a disagreement?

 

I dare say that you too may have issues with the assertion made by FFS. Or, are you telling me that it is doubtful that WM, if healthy and inserted from the opening game, could not have conceivably resulted in another win for the Buffalo Bills?

 

Forget the BS and answer a football question. Is that asking too much?

[JP-era]

 

 

You hit that one out of the park without ever taking a steroid.

218515[/snapback]

 

 

Yeah, good one, yeah (said while high fiving the computer screen) DORK!

[Alaska Darin]

Yeah, good one, yeah (said while high fiving the computer screen) DORK!

218577[/snapback]

Aw, someone desperately needs a friend. Good luck on your quest, though you'll have to leave the mental shire you've been penned up in.

[ganesh]

Interesting how the season plays out if McGahee plays all season and starts those first 5 games.  We'll never know.  It is frustrating to have the number one ST and 2nd rated D and still not make the playoffs.  That is bad!

218159[/snapback]

We would have still lost the two games to the Patriots. We did lose to

the Scrubs even with McGahee starting. We might have gone 2-1 in

the remaining three games against Jax/Jets/Oakland and would have

made the playoffs with a 11-5 record.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Oh Dude, cant you even read a post and place it in the context to which it was written?

 

>>>>Conceivably WM might have made a differnce but it looks really doubtful.<<<<

 

The above is a quote from FFS. THAT is what I responded to. I did not initiate the thread nor the topic, did I? HE made a statement to which I responded.

Were there other factors in the 0-4 start? Of Course!!! I am still pissed about Big Mike coming into camp as a walrus, but will forgive him if he is in shape this year.

Why is it not OK to respond to a post about which one has a disagreement?

 

I dare say that you too may have issues with the assertion made by FFS. Or, are you telling me that it is doubtful that WM, if healthy and inserted from the opening game, could not have conceivably resulted in another win for the Buffalo Bills?

 

Forget the BS and answer a football question. Is that asking too much? 

218573[/snapback]

 

Oh DUDE, can't you just last one day without bashing Henry or calling him a pedophile? Did you personally know that 15 year old gas station slut, and that's what this is all about? Because there are so many other players (of higher character) on this team that underperformed - especially in the first 6 games. Maybe you'd like to focus on one of them for a day.

 

You were one of the first people to rip on me when I started my "Drew sucks" crusade last fall. And you know what? You were totally right on that one. There came a point where everyone knew where I stood on Drew, and so I was only annoying the board by continuing to rehash that same tired opinion.

 

Maybe now is the time to take some of your own advice to heart.

[stevestojan]

man, i wish i liked reading... i bet there's some good stuff in here... when the hell are we getting that text to speech for TBD???

[AJ1]

In his column he leads off stating two things he sees as harsh truths.

 

1. The Pats really are much better than the current competition (well duhh- even if you don't think much of them the current competition has some pretty clear shortfalls which are there to be exploited- they actually pay you good money to state the obvious)?

 

2. This year proves you need a top flight QB to have a serious shot at winning the SB.  He states he is sick of the Trent Dilfer example and the achievements of McNabb proves the error of this thinking.

 

Sullivan misses the boat in my view because  while he is right as far as he goes that a top-flight QB is a key to an SB win (again duhh), he does not seem to see several important factors which strike me as true:

 

1. There are several avenues for getting a top-flight QB and though the method Philly chose for acquiring McNabb (drafting him in the 1st round) is one way of doing this, it is among the worst in terms of prodcuing real world positive results.

 

McNabb is great and Rush Limbaugh is stupid.  However, the facts remain the facts.  McNabb will be the first 1st round drafted QB to bring the team which drafted him to the SB since McNair led TN there in the 1999 season.  Further, no team has chosen a QB who led the team to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

 

I'm not making this stuff up and why does this fairly obvious point seem to escape being worthy of mention by Sullivan.  You don't need McNabb and his near achievements to make the point you want a top-flight QB, Brady has produced like a top-flight QB in 2 of the last 3 years and makes this point, Warner produced like a top-flight QB and was a key tio the high-flying Rams D winning it all.  The thing which is different about McNabb is finally after much delay a 1st round pick even led the team which selected him to the big dance.  To present this as proof positive rather than simply an exception that may prove the rule seems wacky.

 

2. Ragging on Dilfer is fine with me if you want to rag on not-so-good QBs, but if one looks at the last several SB winners and performers if you want to claim that they show the importance of having a top-flight QB, then it is clear top flight QBs come from a number of sources:

 

2003 season- 6th round draft pick beat UDFA (undrafted free agent)

2002 - UFA (unrestricted free agent) beat UFA

2001- 6th round pick beat UDFA

2000- UFA beat UFA

1999- UDFA beat 1st round draft pick

1998- Trade acquisition beat UFA

1997- Trade acquisition beat trade acquisition

1996- Trade acqusition beat 1st round draft pick.

 

Sullivan may want to put the Dilfer example to rest an aberration but in doing so he declares Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, and even Rich Gannon to be top flight QBs or else maybe Dilfer was not an abberation.  It makes less difference to me as the real lesson here is that it is quite doable to get an SB capable QB as a UDFA, UFA, or even more likely as a trade acquisition than spending a 1st rounder on him.

 

3. Though McNabb does redeem 1st rounder choices in this one example, Sullivan can not ignore that the far far far (alot) far more likely occurence is that a 1st round QB choice will bring you pain.  One can look past bad 1st round choices like Couch, Leaf, Smith, Ware, etcetera if you want even though they are even more frequent than the occaisional McNair.  However, one cannot reasonably make the point he is making and also look past the point that even when these players perform extraordinarly well. McNabb is merely reversing 3 straight years of close but no cigar and as great as Peyton Manning is he and Ryan Leaf remain neck and neck in terms of leading the team which drafted them to the SB.

 

If you're a Blls fan then by all means root for McNabb because if he wins the big one, it will take the pressure off of JP to be the first 1st round QB choice to deliver an SB victory to the team which drafted him since Dallas chose Aikman way back in the last millennia.

 

The irony here is that if one is addicted to picking a QB in the first, there is a best case out there in terms of that choice playing a key role in leading the team which picked him and even playing an essential role in an SB win.

 

Ironically, this is actually Drew Bledsoe who led the Pats to an SB appearance in the 1996 season (only to be beaten by trade acquisition Farve) and played QB and threw the winning TD in a must win game for NE in their 2001 season SB run.

218034[/snapback]

 

Actually, what I think Sullivan meant to say was that the chances of going to a SB are low unless you have a QB who is playing in a top-flight MANNER.

 

A mid-flight performer is NOT going to get the job done.

 

DB shows no signs of ever performing like a top QB unless it's against poor competition.

 

Therefore, try the OTHER guy.

 

We don't know what level JP will be able to perform.

 

Sadly, we know the answer with Drew. The Bills will move on, IMO.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Actually, what I think Sullivan meant to say was that the chances of going to a SB are low unless you have a QB who is playing in a top-flight MANNER.

 

A mid-flight performer is NOT going to get the job done.

 

DB shows no signs of ever performing like a top QB unless it's against poor competition.

 

Therefore, try the OTHER guy.

 

We don't know what level JP will be able to perform.

 

Sadly, we know the answer with Drew.  The Bills will move on, IMO.

218675[/snapback]

 

 

I don't think that is what he meant otherwise why specifically site McNabb's achievement as a great occurence and to contrast this with the Dilfer example. If you're looking to show that your QB should play in a top flight manner why look beyond Brady who has 2 SB MVPs?

 

I think he is making the broader finding but that finding contradicts itself. If finally McNabb making is proof you must have a top-flight QB, then does it mean anything that QBs seem to routinely lead their teams there (since Brady and Johnson did not disprove the Dilfer case),