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qbs the team drafted in the first round:

 

culpepper

mcnabb

vick

rothlesberger

pennington

manning

 

the other 2, brady and bulger, were 6th rounders and still play for the team that drafted them.

 

that shoots down the once popular theory that teams were just as well off with journeymen scrubs playing for them at the qb position, i think ...

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qbs the team drafted in the first round:

 

culpepper

mcnabb

vick

rothlesberger

pennington

manning

 

the other 2, brady and bulger, were 6th rounders and still play for the team that drafted them.

 

that shoots down the once popular theory that teams were just as well off with journeymen scrubs playing for them at the qb position, i think ...

211231[/snapback]

Yeah, one year certainly makes the rule. :P

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I don't know, to really make the case, don't you have to look at more than just how many of the playoff teams have first-round QBs?

 

Other relevant information: how many first-round QBs aren't in the playoffs, how many first-round QBs have been drafted over some period of time and washed out vs. success rates at other positions.

 

And I don't think the argument was about whether first-round QBs could get you to the playoffs, it was about whether starting one was a guarantee of or a necessity for championship success. All things being equal, of course you want a great QB, but all things are never equal and I think you do have to question whether you need to invest high picks in a quarterback.

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qbs the team drafted in the first round:

 

culpepper

mcnabb

vick

rothlesberger

pennington

manning

 

the other 2, brady and bulger, were 6th rounders and still play for the team that drafted them.

 

that shoots down the once popular theory that teams were just as well off with journeymen scrubs playing for them at the qb position, i think ...

211231[/snapback]

I don't think that was ever a popular theory, why would folks opt for journeyman scrubs when well-regarded QBs have been readily available outside of the draft like from Farve and Young to folks who forced trades like John Elway.

Yhe certainly were run out of town by folks who put too much emphasis on the drafty and demand drafted players produce immediately and declare them bust when they don't.

 

There are certainly recent SB winners like Brad Johnson who was certainly could be called a journeyman as this two time loser was on his third team, but even though his new contract did not have the heavy hit of the out years of a 1st round draftee or the championship killing cap load of a the resign contract of a great QB like Manning I wouldn't call his contract a scrub amount.

 

Certainly, the theory I have promoted for years is that it is possible to win the SB with a player considered a journeyman because of several stops on his resumer (Kurt Warner) or his minimum salary (Trent Dilfer). However, this theory says less about what it definitely takes to have a QB play that position in a Super Bowl year than it saying that their are multiple methods for doing this, and the anti-conventional wisdom is seen in the simple fact that no team has drafted a player in the first round who has led them to a win in the SB since Aikman did it for Dallas with this 1989 pick. This is not a simple theory but is just a simple fact.

 

I am one who does not argue that it can't be done, but simply that the next time it is done will be the first time a team made an SB winning move with this pick in 15 years.

 

I think there is a great case to declare 2004 the year of the 1st round draft pick QB because they did extraordinarly well getting teams to the playoffs when generally 25% or so or 3 of the 12 teams are led by teams drafted in the 1st round.

 

However, it remains to be seen if RoboQB, MacNabb. or Vick prove to be winners of the SB this year whether their wins are mere exceptions which prove the rule or a breakthrough hailing back to the Aikman choice.

 

The again, if Brady and the Pats stick to the same route they used to vanquish the team of Peyton Manning again and when it all, it may just be wait til next year and folks devoted to the star power and marketing of 1st round drafted QBs will have to make do with the NFC QB reversing a trend last bridged in the 1999 season when McNair led TN to the big dance.

 

My personal wish is that JP Losman actually be the guy to break the trend and break it soon by leading the Bills to an SB win.

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The argument was never that 1st round QBs suck, or are destined to be losers. It's just that they're not proven to be better than QBs who are drafted later, and can turn into big busts just as easily. If QB is the most important position, and first rounders are accurate, every good team should have one, right? But then there are the 2001 and 2003 Patriots, the 2003 Panthers, the 2002 Raiders and Buccaneers, the 1999 and 2001 Rams, the 2000 Ravens and Giants, the 1998 Falcons...and so on. It IS interesting that they're all first rounders this year (save only Brady, now), but it's not proof of anything nor does it lay to rest anything. There's a Leaf for every Manning, you know.

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I have six words for you:

 

Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown

 

McNown was #12 , Smith was #3, and Couch was the #1 pick overall in 1999, the same year McNabb (#2) and Culpepper (#11) were picked. Are these assclowns still in the NFL, much less leading their team to the playoffs?

 

Conclusion: picking a QB, no matter what round, is still a crap shoot.

 

PTR

 

qbs the team drafted in the first round:

 

culpepper

mcnabb

vick

rothlesberger

pennington

manning

 

the other 2, brady and bulger, were 6th rounders and still play for the team that drafted them.

 

that shoots down the once popular theory that teams were just as well off with journeymen scrubs playing for them at the qb position, i think ...

211231[/snapback]

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I know the answer already, but I have a question for you guys...

 

What are the odds that a R2-7 pick at QB will go on to have a career as a successful, reliable NFL starter for a decent period of time (in other words, leave out the one year wonders)? The 1980-2000 drafts are probably a good place to look.

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