ubhockey Posted January 11, 2005 Author Share Posted January 11, 2005 You really believe that, because a company is "good", that its stock "must go up"? If you do, there's this bridge in Brooklyn that I own that I can sell you dirt cheap! P.S. See "Rigas, John" and "Adelphia". 202096[/snapback] No I don't believe that, I just find it really weird when it does so much like it has recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 No I don't believe that, I just find it really weird when it does so much like it has recently. 202195[/snapback] You must be a very young investor. Witness 1998-2000. It was very common for tech stocks to go up 20+ points in a single day. Absolutely crazy! There are $200 stocks that are trading for cents on the dollar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 12, 2005 Author Share Posted January 12, 2005 There's been some "bad" news in the form of ratings downgrades recently, which have made Sirius and XM lose about 13% since the begining of the year. Both were upgraded to "buy" by one analyst today, so it will be interesting to see where the stock goes tomorrow. I wasn't happy to see the stock drop as much as it did, but I took advantage of the volatility and bought and sold shares to make a tidy profit this past week. The initial investment I made was for the long-term, which for me means at least a year, when I can see what effect Stern moving to Sirius and the deals with car makers have on subscriber numbers. But satellite radio isn't going away and will be to traditional radio what cable was/is to traditional TV. 202189[/snapback] I wish I concretely knew how many subscribers Sirius or XM need to get into the black. Rumor has it for Sirius that that they need 5,000,000 which I think is clearly attainable by 2007. I've heard a lot more at times and sometimes a lot less. Either way, as you mentioned and I've said to soooo many people, satelite radio is like cable tv. It's going to be huge. They don't need 250,000,000 people to make money. They need only a very small fraction of that, and I mean very small. Plus, there's going to be a lot of cool gadgets coming out in the coming year for satelite radio, my favorite is the XM MyFi which is like an iPod, which is already out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Speaking of tanking stocks, did anyone buy TASR prior to the end of last year? That stock has lost almost $20 since that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 12, 2005 Author Share Posted January 12, 2005 You must be a very young investor. Witness 1998-2000. It was very common for tech stocks to go up 20+ points in a single day. Absolutely crazy! There are $200 stocks that are trading for cents on the dollar now 202214[/snapback] I'm sure of that. As i am sure there's also stocks from those days that would have loved to be trading for cents today. However, during the .com boom, I was always skepitcal about many of those businesses and their models. Satelite radio is a business model that I personally find to be very bulletproof. It's a great idea, made better by today's tighter controls over broadcast content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmac17 Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I wish I concretely knew how many subscribers Sirius or XM need to get into the black. Rumor has it for Sirius that that they need 5,000,000 which I think is clearly attainable by 2007. I've heard a lot more at times and sometimes a lot less. Either way, as you mentioned and I've said to soooo many people, satelite radio is like cable tv. It's going to be huge. They don't need 250,000,000 people to make money. They need only a very small fraction of that, and I mean very small. The problem with your rational is that it really has nothing to do with whether or not satellite radio will be huge or not - it's about if the company is overvalued at it's current price. Most will agree that satellite radio will be around for many years to come. Unfortunately for you, a lot of people realized that a few years ago and bought the stock at a much lower price..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfladave Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 You must be a very young investor. Witness 1998-2000. It was very common for tech stocks to go up 20+ points in a single day. Absolutely crazy! There are $200 stocks that are trading for cents on the dollar now 202214[/snapback] Those were crazy days and even crazier valuations. Remember companies like CMGI, QCOM, FDRY, AKAM, they all had huge swings on a daily basis. QCOM made a lightning fast run from 100 to 1000 in less than 8 months. It was impossible to trade on valuations, if you were buying and selling it was for momentum swings. I remember sweating through some pretty hairy times when I was trading then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Mularkey Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 As far as Sirius goes, let me say this. We set goals and which become our objective. If we don't reach them then we're disappointed. We focus on staying the course and will continue to do so. -MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Speaking of tanking stocks, did anyone buy TASR prior to the end of last year? That stock has lost almost $20 since that time! 202220[/snapback] I made a ton of money on Taser when it went up...but I wouldn't have dreamed of holding it. The company's got great long-term prospects - but the stock was so grossly overvalued in comparison to the underlying company that it was ultimately going to get slaughtered...as it has, surprise, surprise. Now tell me again how Sirius is going to $35... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I'm sure of that. As i am sure there's also stocks from those days that would have loved to be trading for cents today. However, during the .com boom, I was always skepitcal about many of those businesses and their models. 202224[/snapback] I sold all my .com holdings the moment they stopped talking in dollars and started talking in "eyeballs". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I made a ton of money on Taser when it went up...but I wouldn't have dreamed of holding it. The company's got great long-term prospects - but the stock was so grossly overvalued in comparison to the underlying company that it was ultimately going to get slaughtered...as it has, surprise, surprise. It got slaughtered because of concerns over it's safety, and because customers are now starting to think twice about purchasing it. I said as much in the last time we, uh, talked. So in a way you're right that it was overvalued, because now they won't be selling as much product. What I should have done is bought STIY back THEN, when it was $17. Now tell me again how Sirius is going to $35... Patience my friend. Patience. You and others seemed to think I meant it would get there overnight, but I always said I was in it long-term. However you DID give me the idea to trade it and make some coin in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 12, 2005 Author Share Posted January 12, 2005 The problem with your rational is that it really has nothing to do with whether or not satellite radio will be huge or not - it's about if the company is overvalued at it's current price. Most will agree that satellite radio will be around for many years to come. Unfortunately for you, a lot of people realized that a few years ago and bought the stock at a much lower price..... 202260[/snapback] Sirius was up in the $60s in 2001 or 2002 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 It got slaughtered because of concerns over it's safety, and because customers are now starting to think twice about purchasing it. I said as much in the last time we, uh, talked. So in a way you're right that it was overvalued, because now they won't be selling as much product. What I should have done is bought STIY back THEN, when it was $17. Patience my friend. Patience. You and others seemed to think I meant it would get there overnight, but I always said I was in it long-term. However you DID give me the idea to trade it and make some coin in the meantime. 202413[/snapback] You know so little about investing, it's astounding. Do you even understand the difference between a stock and the underlying company. Or, put another way...what, generally, does Sirius have to do to achieve a stock price of $35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Mularkey Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Sirius was up in the $60s in 2001 or 2002 I believe. 202430[/snapback] I am pretty certain that they have been financing debt by offering more stock, thereby diluting the value of the stock. I believe this is part of the reason the price ain't hitting 35-60 You want to look at the total market value, not just the price of an individual stock. There's a reason why the trading volume is so high every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Mularkey Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I bought a lot of shares at $3.75 and 50% more at $8.80. The last buy was stupid on my part, but oh well, still in the black. My B/E price is $5.43 and the stock is at $5.99 despite nothing but good news coming for them and XM. I work in broadcast radio, just about all radio insider mags and experts say that within the next 2-4 years, broadcast radio will lose males completely to satelite radio. The outlook is gloom for broadcast radio in regards to the male market. This week Sirius announces huge deals with Ford motors and they are outselling XM now, yet somehow the stock sucks. Weird. Anyways, I'm in it for the longhaul with this stock. I'm actually thinking of picking up more today. 201999[/snapback] Huge deals cost money, doesn't mean that the stock wins because of it. Sirius is currently valued at 7.71 billion. XM is at 6.91 billion. The stock has more than tripled based on them getting Stern for a ton of money. Seems ripe for at least a brief fall unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtGodel77 Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Huge deals cost money, doesn't mean that the stock wins because of it. Sirius is currently valued at 7.71 billion. XM is at 6.91 billion. The stock has more than tripled based on them getting Stern for a ton of money. Seems ripe for at least a brief fall unfortunately. 202436[/snapback] I agree. Howard Stern is an old man trying to make a living by shocking a desensitized nation. Signing him isn't worth as much as it's cracked up to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 You know so little about investing, it's astounding. Do you even understand the difference between a stock and the underlying company. Yeah, I guess that's why I haven't made ANY money and you've made enough to quit your day job. Oh and yes, Taser dropped STRICTLY on valuation, not because people were worried about the safety of the product and potential lawsuits. Or, put another way...what, generally, does Sirius have to do to achieve a stock price of $35. Gee I don't know. Maybe get some subscribers to make that balance sheet look pretty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Oh and yes, Taser dropped STRICTLY on valuation, not because people were worried about the safety of the product and potential lawsuits. 202535[/snapback] IMHO, Taser droppped because the sellers were more agressive than the buyers. People sell for many reasons. The talking heads mentioned valuation. They mentioned lawsuits. They mentioned the SEC inquiry. They were looking for reasons for the precipitous drop. You're the first prognositicator I've heard (read) that is 100% sure, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 IMHO, Taser droppped because the sellers were more agressive than the buyers. People sell for many reasons. The talking heads mentioned valuation. They mentioned lawsuits. They mentioned the SEC inquiry. They were looking for reasons for the precipitous drop. You're the first prognositicator I've heard (read) that is 100% sure, though. The only thing I'm "100% sure" of is that the stock dropped $20 since the beginning of the year. I'm also "100% sure" that the reasons were more than just valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I had written a paper for a business course a few years back. All the finance calculations have been good. Now let me give you a bit from the strategy and marketing side. Sirius and XM, like satellite will live and die by their subscription base and their ability to retain customers. This tie-up with several car manufacturers means a lot but ultimately may be a big let-down. Putting XM ready receivers in cars does not mean people will subscribe to the service or even maintain their subscription. The biggest investment has already been made - in the satellites which cost ~ $1.5 billion). With limited information, I had estimated that they need between 3.1 - 6.2 MM subscribers on an on-going basis simply to break-even. Problem is that I ran a variety of cases and figured that in the best case, the total subscribers of both XM and Sirius would be no more than 9.6 MM !! Ofcourse, this is just my paper and it may mean nothing. But I am fairly confident that what you saw was a stock price jump due to a mini-bubble ala the good old dotcom days. Eventually the market cooled down ... If anybody wants to read my paper, PM me and I will send a copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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