jaybee Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I wonder if JP Morgan will have a mock draft next year ? Analytics? Sounds like a buzz word to me. One that will probably be long forgotten when we take the field for our first playoff game in 13 years. I'm ready now ! Applying statistical analysis to a fairly uncontrolled process is probably not a very useful endeavor. IMHO. But then, I'm not really sure how the Bills define it either so I'll leave it alone for now. jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 (edited) NS i am not suggesting or defending that the A word as applied to Bills FO made those descisions and or created the results we now see. But they could . and the method is to go for the big hitters and quietly dial in the other bits. Thats constant improvement walk it. choose points and execute. watch results. modify after data is collected . Russ has always been doing this and has an easy measurable... Ticket sales. It is mostly a business creating a product that a customer wants. For Marrone the measurables are much more complex. for Hackett n Pettine a little less. For the beer vendor, maybe even less. maybe... Cheers! Don't you worry, I agree with what you are saying - and i think we are doing a lot of it with or without 4 math majors, and 2 quality control coaches locked in the basement of OBD. That's part of why I don't think we will see drastic changes even with them. Although I do think ej is the definition of "feels right" over in depth statistical analysis. More importantly, I agree that a big part of turning the corner is hitting on the big 3-4 jobs and that once that happens those guys tend to make the rest fall into place pretty well, right down to the beer policy in the parking lots. When you get the top of the organization, top of the team and top of the roster all in order, things tend to line up behind them pretty darn quickly. These might be the best trio we've had in quite some time, both on paper and the all important gut feeling. I wonder if JP Morgan will have a mock draft next year ? Analytics? Sounds like a buzz word to me. One that will probably be long forgotten when we take the field for our first playoff game in 13 years. I'm ready now ! Applying statistical analysis to a fairly uncontrolled process is probably not a very useful endeavor. IMHO. But then, I'm not really sure how the Bills define it either so I'll leave it alone for now. jb Certainly more succinct, but a lot of the essence of what I was trying to get at. While I'm sure there are uses, I don't think it's near as simple as portrayed... There's still an element of 1) set up department 2) ????? 3) profit Edited May 22, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 You seem to interchange "complicated" and "predictable" freely when addressing this which is totally innappropriate to addressing the issues at hand, and without doubt youll avoid getting into any specifics. I've agreed that value could be found but that its application is nothing like the average fan is picturing and its value add is far less than typically predicted by the peterlaws of the discussion demanding analytics now. Unless your willing to discuss specific applications your argument amounts to "analytics good!" Which sure, they are but what does that amount to in real application? Again, I doubt you'll go down that road... My point from the get go is that most really have no clue how to apply them including many in the nfl offices which makes it, especially short term, an aspiration more than a practical application. I'm glad our guys aspire to it as I said early it means they are forward thinking and willing to explore the cutting edge but come free agency or the 3rd quarter of the 3rd Sunday of November on 2nd and 3 we likely aren't going to suddenly have a huge advantage nor have we likely had a large deficit in the past based on the very nature of the datas limitations which you are inputting. Nice, more obfuscation. Is it deliberate or do you really have no idea how we've arrived at this destination? There has been no "interchange" in my use of predictable and complicated. Read it again. If you didn't want to discuss "analytics good" then why did you respond to an innocuous and totally superficial point with "analytics won't work in football because markets predictable"? Demanding specifics is cute at this juncture, but totally irrelevant to the discussion that we've been having. Again, see my initial post and your reply. What specifics could I have provided which would have prevented you from a gross oversimplification and total misunderstanding of financial markets? As for the bold, you're forgetting that you don't know how they'll be applied either. Also, I never placed a time frame for when such an endeavor would bear fruit. Also, how are you reading any of this into what I've actually typed? At least you've stopped trying to defend the indefensible. Thanks for leaving me an out, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 (edited) Nice, more obfuscation. Is it deliberate or do you really have no idea how we've arrived at this destination? There has been no "interchange" in my use of predictable and complicated. Read it again. If you didn't want to discuss "analytics good" then why did you respond to an innocuous and totally superficial point with "analytics won't work in football because markets predictable"? Demanding specifics is cute at this juncture, but totally irrelevant to the discussion that we've been having. Again, see my initial post and your reply. What specifics could I have provided which would have prevented you from a gross oversimplification and total misunderstanding of financial markets? As for the bold, you're forgetting that you don't know how they'll be applied either. Also, I never placed a time frame for when such an endeavor would bear fruit. Also, how are you reading any of this into what I've actually typed? At least you've stopped trying to defend the indefensible. Thanks for leaving me an out, by the way. truly, the financial stuff is silly to continue to harp on unless we are going to do detail and theres no reason to - long term, short term, global markets, individual stocks, funds, etc.... and what the term predictability really means in the context of that discussion. youve never defined the discussion and that is part of why i was annoyed by the comment in the first place (heck, i havent either and thats part of the reason this discussion been so fruitless). EDIT: im going to stick with the original statement and cut the tangent into finances out, again. small sample sizes of football situations with high variability doesnt mean its more complicated, but it does make it tough to model - very different things, and yes you have casually gone back and forth (silly NS, you think football is more complicated.... no but i think a lot of the modeling of anything football related gets tricky because of the limitations of the data). thats a pretty simple statement and why i took up with you after you spouted off about "oh yea cause football is more complicated than global markets" but if winning the financial side of the talk is that important to you ill give you 6 internet message board credibility points out of my account and call it a day. im not going into it any more. why dont we talk football analytics. you seem to be very pro-analytics, but refuse to get into what you would like to see from them. heck, ive been asking the question on and off long term, and kind of blew up this thread i guess demanding answers (more than i meant to by all means) and still havent gotten anyone to step up to the plate (heck, ive been questioning it, as have several others, since people started bringing all the advanced grading systems to the board and really havent gotten a firm answer that i can remember)... someone to say something along the lines of "i would like our analytics department to focus on X, and i think it will work because of Y and will hopefully produce Z value" and until that happens i think its funny that people are mad it doesnt exist - despite no one seeming to have a clue what it will be in the first place. cool, we want this department..... why? what is it to you? where will it give us the most value? can we leave the price of oil in china out of the discussion though? Edited May 22, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 truly, the financial stuff is silly to continue to harp on unless we are going to do detail and theres no reason to - long term, short term, global markets, individual stocks, funds, etc.... and what the term predictability really means in the context of that discussion. youve never defined the discussion and that is part of why i was annoyed by the comment in the first place (heck, i havent either and thats part of the reason this discussion been so fruitless). EDIT: im going to stick with the original statement and cut the tangent into finances out, again. small sample sizes of football situations with high variability doesnt mean its more complicated, but it does make it tougher to model - very different things, and yes you have casually gone back and forth (silly NS, you think football is more complicated.... no but i think a lot of the modeling of anything football related gets tricky because of the limitations of the data). thats a pretty simple statement and why i took up with you after you spouted off about "oh yea cause football is more complicated than global markets" but if winning the financial side of the talk is that important to you ill give you 6 internet message board credibility points out of my account and call it a day. im not going into it any more. why dont we talk football analytics. you seem to be very pro-analytics, but refuse to get into what you would like to see from them. heck, ive been asking the question on and off long term, and kind of blew up this thread i guess demanding answers (more than i meant to by all means) and still havent gotten anyone to step up to the plate (heck, ive been questioning it, as have several others, since people started bringing all the advanced grading systems to the board and really havent gotten a firm answer that i can remember)... someone to say something along the lines of "i would like our analytics department to focus on X, and i think it will work because of Y and will hopefully produce Z value" and until that happens i think its funny that people are mad it doesnt exist - despite no one seeming to have a clue what it will be in the first place. cool, we want this department..... why? what is it to you? where will it give us the most value? can we leave the price of oil in china out of the discussion though? If you aren't sure of the definition of predictability then I would advise you not to introduce the term into future discussions. The word is clearly defined and requires no additional explanation. If you need to qualify your use of predictable, you're likely using the word wrong. Predictable would suggest that I know where the DJIA will be in 10 years. Predictable does not mean that under the parameters of my model, assuming there are no shocks to the system, policy changes, the relationship between my variables remains constant, and holding all other things equal, the DJIA will be 18,000 in 10 years. If you have to qualify it to such a degree then its not exactly predictable. Modelable does not equal predictable. The financial aspect isn't a tangent, it was my whole point of comparison. Its what I originally posted and what you responded to. If its silly and you don't want to talk about it, then by all means don't. Using words correctly and maintaining focus are integral to communication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 (edited) If you aren't sure of the definition of predictability then I would advise you not to introduce the term into future discussions. The word is clearly defined and requires no additional explanation. If you need to qualify your use of predictable, you're likely using the word wrong. Predictable would suggest that I know where the DJIA will be in 10 years. Predictable does not mean that under the parameters of my model, assuming there are no shocks to the system, policy changes, the relationship between my variables remains constant, and holding all other things equal, the DJIA will be 18,000 in 10 years. If you have to qualify it to such a degree then its not exactly predictable. Modelable does not equal predictable. The financial aspect isn't a tangent, it was my whole point of comparison. Its what I originally posted and what you responded to. If its silly and you don't want to talk about it, then by all means don't. Using words correctly and maintaining focus are integral to communication. whats your standard of "predictable?" what types of variation, and confidence intervals would you accept? over what time frame? what types of predictions would you be trying to make, as that would certainly make a big difference, no? yes, predictable is easily defined in its most basic terms.... but its certainly not a word that can be thrown around without qualification and expect everyone to be using the same standards - especially across the broad discussion of "global financial markets." like i said, some of our bickering centers on those very issues. i certainly used the term in a few different contexts, and i think you are using it in some separate ones as well. nothing wrong with any of them. like you mentioned earlier, im clearly ok letting some of this chalk up as agree to disagree, and likely poor communication mixed in(ive been doing other work pretty consistently through these and havent been razor sharp with my words - so be it). any time you would like to chime in with football analytics, i am glad to hash out the discussion further. i stand by that it seems to be the one topic no one ever wants to touch in threads about an analytics department for this football team. we hit on accountability, and a whole lot of anger, we even hash out financial issues but people demanding "analytics, now!" or harping on them really dont seem to define what they want from those analytics besides, as i said earlier "analytics, good!" well, sure, analyzing data is good... now what are we doing with it? Edited May 22, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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