What's with the Edge Rusher draft predictions?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Now, I'm not going to sit here and say that having edge rushers aren't important. QB's make the flashy plays, but championships are won with stout D. I think there's a reason why three out of the last four Super Bowl teams have been touted as having defensive models work emulating (2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens and 49'ers) and some people may recognize that I've been trying to mock out defensive schemes since Pettine was hired.

 

That said...what the hell is up with a third of the people picking for an edge rusher for the Bills at #8 in the draft?

 

Now, at this point almost all mocks and predictions I see go one of three ways: Quarterback, Guard, and Edge Rusher (OLB or DE/OLB hybrid)

 

Quarterback is obvious. We need a franchise QB. Buddy knows it. We know it. The whole league knows it. If the Bills think they have a guy, I won't object even if I think they drafted too high.

 

Guard...I disagree with the idea, but I understand the logic. If the Bills want to break in a 2nd round rookie QB who is raw but has potential and needs time to adjust (Matt Scott, Bray or less likely EJ Manuel), it would make Kolb/the rookie's job easier if they have a solid O-line to work with, so that they have time and can open up the running game for CJ and Freddy. A solid O-line and run game might help counteract our deficiencies. Personally, I think it's something we can do with our current backups coupled with a midround pick, but I can see the debate.

 

Edge rusher...I don't see it. I really don't see it. Maybe before free agency began, but with the acquisition of Branch, Lawson and Dotwin and what we've seen in mini-camp, it appears that we are primarily playing out of the 3-4. Branch is there to act as a gap stuffer, Dareus and Williams are best at interior penetration, which means that the role of rusher falls to the OLB.

 

Well, it's not like we signed a $100M contract to get a premier outside pass rusher...wait, I'm being told that we signed Mario Williams for that amount. Well, Lawson isn't much of a blitzer, maybe we want someone on the outside who can do the hybrid OLB/DE role...no, wait, I'm being reminded that we overpaid Mark Anderson to do that. Considering that we already have Moats for depth, and Lawson likely taking all non-blitz snaps at SLB I'm mystified why people keep saying over, and over and over that the Bills need another pass rusher.

 

How about our non-existent receiver corps? Buddy ignored every entreaty to pick up a cheap WR in FA. How about CB, as now that Aaron Williams at safety our #2 and 3 and Leodis McKelvin and Ron Brooks? This is not confidence inspiring. How about tight end, where our only quality starter is coming off an ACL injury. How about someone who projects to be an every down, pure Nose Tackle? It just...shocks me that in the face of all these problems, people seem intent on trying to add more to the one position where the Bills have thrown every resource.

[....lybob]

We have exactly 2 DEs and one will be 30, coming off an injury and has made double digit sacks twice in 8 seasons- an edge rusher is a definite need.

[Aus Bills]

Agreed, I really just want them to pick their QB at 8 and we can move on without going through the uncertainty of not knowing how long QB's will last.

 

So many damn gaps to fill. Would love Jesse Williams to fall to 41.

 

[agardin]

I am always for improving the oline. I will admit to not knowing much about the backups from last year but if you can insert a player with a pro bowl future it cant hurt. By all accounts Cooper or Womack fit that bill.

 

I am also OK with picking up a QB in round 2.

 

As for your original question, I am BPA all the way and that would include D lineman. All fronts play rotations so anyone drafted will see the field. Holes abound, the Bills can select a player at almost every position and make the case for it.

[RealityCheck]

The big games in the playoffs are decided by a few big plays of QB vs. rush on those critical 3rd downs. Can the QB accurately get the ball out vs. the pressure? Unfortunately that one dynamic is impacted by 11 on 11 just like all situations. It will come down to philosophy. Nix comes from a build from the ball out sub-culture while Pettine is a modern NFL coach coming from a staff who's head coach has stated that he believes in building a defense from the CB in, or at least that's what Rex has said. 3rd and long defines the great QBs for a reason. Luck was the best in the league last year in that situation, what does that tell us?

[agardin]

The Bills ranked in the top 15 in 3rd down conversions. This shocked me to be honest. I guess I only remember the critical turnovers at the worst possible moments.

 

I do agree with you. Teams that pick up 3 and 8's for first downs on a regular basis usually do well. Teams that prevent the other guy from moving the chains also do well. Football is the ultimate team game so your point about 11 on 11 is one that I completely agree with. BPA. What if Millner is there at 8 and he is the highest ranked guy you have? Do you not take him because you happened to draft Gilmour last year?

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

 

[Hazed and Amuzed]

You never can have enough pass rushers.

[chris heff]

We have exactly 2 DEs and one will be 30, coming off an injury and has made double digit sacks twice in 8 seasons- an edge rusher is a definite need.

When I read this I thought it could not possible be right, which it is not. There are 3 DEs on the roster. However one of them I have never heard of.

[KeisterHollow]

Well, the case can be made for a NT - if you can prevent running plays from getting much yardage you see a lot more 3rd and long - and a lot more 3rd and long increases the chances of stopping them short. Likewise, the case could be made for a CB - if they have to wait a few seconds more for an open reciever, the rush can be more effective. Edge rusher - as much as it is a nice thing to have - can be had with a number of players, and in this draft there projects to be very capable rushers in the 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th round.

 

That is ultimately what the front office is going to be weighing - how likely are we to fill a need in later rounds if we pass on it here? I think that is why they'll have a really hard time passing on QB at 1 - there are too many teams needing a QB between their 1st and 2nd pick, and those "3 or 4" potential franchise guys would very likely be gone if they try to get cute in the 1st round.

 

After that, though, between rounds 2-4, they are going to be able to find capable players at WR, LB, TE, CB, and NT. Between rounds 4-6 they'll still be able to find decent G and WR help - starter talent, even. It's a very deep class. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few UDFA's make the final roster.

 

Edge rushers are no doubt important - and the Bills, which may end up being a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how they use these guys - might have made a really dolt-ish move by investing that 120 million in 2 DE's who might not be capable of playing OLB. Then again, as I said, they might play the hybrid DE/OLB perfectly. If we DO have a need there, there will be guys in the 2-4 who can come in and make plays.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

We have exactly 2 DEs and one will be 30, coming off an injury and has made double digit sacks twice in 8 seasons- an edge rusher is a definite need.

 

There seems to be some confusion. What I said was "Edge Rushers" People who play DE in the 4-3 and OLB in a 3-4. Importantly, all signs indicated that we are CHANGING SYSTEMS!!!!! In the 3-4, typically only one LB is consistently used for edge rushing, which is the Jack LB. Assuming that we use a system very similar to the Ravens (which Pettine coached), we can assume Mario being in a Ray Lewis type usage on the weak side. Meanwhile, we've brought in Manny Lawson, who thrives as being on the Strong Side, which typically is a mixture of coverage and stopping the running back, as opposed to tackling.

 

This is what the depth chart looks looks like for our front seven at present:

D-line starters: Dareus, K Williams, Branch

D-line backups: Carrington, Troup,

Rushing LB/DE Hybrid: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson

Outside LB: Lawson, B Scott, Moats

ILB: Sheppard, Bradham, Dowtin

 

If anything, where we're weak in the front seven is in the ILB.

[3rdand12]

i think the focus for the defensive seven in Pettine's system of disguise will linebackers esp. need to be 3 down players.

And flexible enough to move from a hand down, to some coverage skill.

If this is an outside backer in name or a guy that lined up in the middle during college doesnt matter.

The blitz could come from anywhere in Mike's scheme.

 

All that being said BPA once the qb is targeted.

good question and got me thinking about the old addage " you cant have too many pass rushers "

 

It's true but today they need to be able to cover also !

[KeisterHollow]

The fact that we have invested so heavily in Mark Anderson and Mario Williams tells me they will have to just let them play and see how they fit this year - and, they're not going to spend an early pick there, yet, because of the importance of starting the guy making 20 million a year. Lawson and Bradham are capable of playing 3 downs - so, I would think the Bills will prioritize ILB in the first 3 rounds, just because a really good, versatile, 3 down ILB next to Bradham will allow Pettine to truly disguise coverages and blitzes. Having someone out there like Sheppard, or Scott - to a lesser extent - creates a sort of soft spot in the defense.

 

And, as I noted above - I think we're underestimating the importance of getting a true NT. If they believe Branch can be that guy then they've already got it figured out. However, if they have doubts about it, I'd guess we spend a pick on a NT this year, too.

[Webster Guy]

You never can have enough pass rushers.

Unless you already have some decent ones and only have one proven NFL receiver on your team and zero proven QB's.

[3rdand12]

The fact that we have invested so heavily in Mark Anderson and Mario Williams tells me they will have to just let them play and see how they fit this year - and, they're not going to spend an early pick there, yet, because of the importance of starting the guy making 20 million a year. Lawson and Bradham are capable of playing 3 downs - so, I would think the Bills will prioritize ILB in the first 3 rounds, just because a really good, versatile, 3 down ILB next to Bradham will allow Pettine to truly disguise coverages and blitzes. Having someone out there like Sheppard, or Scott - to a lesser extent - creates a sort of soft spot in the defense.

 

And, as I noted above - I think we're underestimating the importance of getting a true NT. If they believe Branch can be that guy then they've already got it figured out. However, if they have doubts about it, I'd guess we spend a pick on a NT this year, too.

 

Keister I think that is correct. on all your points

 

 

I feel they brought Branch in (well done Bills! ) just for that reason and got the added bonus he can play 3 downs and a couple techs. Great fit for Mike's game.

 

Depending on Troup (is he practicing ?) they might need to add another before long.

The inside linebacker is a position I think is a "soft spot " for the team also. and hope they grab a guy like Minter after the trade back.

 

Unless you already have some decent ones and only have one proven NFL receiver on your team and zero proven QB's.

Multiple weaknesses and some just plain voids , demand we draft wisely this year.

As some have said .. Bills painted themslves into a corner by now.

Go Bills

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

The fact that we have invested so heavily in Mark Anderson and Mario Williams tells me they will have to just let them play and see how they fit this year - and, they're not going to spend an early pick there, yet, because of the importance of starting the guy making 20 million a year. Lawson and Bradham are capable of playing 3 downs - so, I would think the Bills will prioritize ILB in the first 3 rounds, just because a really good, versatile, 3 down ILB next to Bradham will allow Pettine to truly disguise coverages and blitzes. Having someone out there like Sheppard, or Scott - to a lesser extent - creates a sort of soft spot in the defense.

 

And, as I noted above - I think we're underestimating the importance of getting a true NT. If they believe Branch can be that guy then they've already got it figured out. However, if they have doubts about it, I'd guess we spend a pick on a NT this year, too.

 

I agree. I think that if Pettine doesn't believe that either Dareus or Branch can be a true NT (I'm hoping one of them can do it), I would be delighted if Star Lotulelei dropped into our laps. Seriously, we would have a scary front 7.

 

Unless you already have some decent ones and only have one proven NFL receiver on your team and zero proven QB's.

+1. Thank you!

[Johnny Hammersticks]

There seems to be some confusion. What I said was "Edge Rushers" People who play DE in the 4-3 and OLB in a 3-4. Importantly, all signs indicated that we are CHANGING SYSTEMS!!!!! In the 3-4, typically only one LB is consistently used for edge rushing, which is the Jack LB. Assuming that we use a system very similar to the Ravens (which Pettine coached), we can assume Mario being in a Ray Lewis type usage on the weak side. Meanwhile, we've brought in Manny Lawson, who thrives as being on the Strong Side, which typically is a mixture of coverage and stopping the running back, as opposed to tackling.

 

This is what the depth chart looks looks like for our front seven at present:

D-line starters: Dareus, K Williams, Branch

D-line backups: Carrington, Troup,

Rushing LB/DE Hybrid: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson

Outside LB: Lawson, B Scott, Moats

ILB: Sheppard, Bradham, Dowtin

 

If anything, where we're weak in the front seven is in the ILB.

 

I have heard that Moats will be moved back inside in Pettine's defense. He will likely be a depth player behind Shepp and Bradham. Lawson, Williams, and Anderson will be the OLB's in the base defense. With regard to the need for an "edge rusher" being a desparate need, keep in mind that in Pettine's scheme he relies heavily on blitzing safeties and CB's. I don't see and edge rusher being a need as much as a more well-rounded, scheme diverse OLB.

 

IMO...I put LB behind QB, WR, CB, and TE as needs in this draft.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I agree. I think that if Pettine doesn't believe that either Dareus or Branch can be a true NT (I'm hoping one of them can do it), I would be delighted if Star Lotulelei dropped into our laps. Seriously, we would have a scary front 7.

 

You do realize though that this is the defensive analog to drafting Chance Warmack?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

You do realize though that this is the defensive analog to drafting Chance Warmack?

 

Fair point, though I would argue that a true nose tackle has more effect than an OG, but even in that case I can at least see the reasoning behind it. Of course I would prefer a QB (Manuel or Smith) or a WR (Austin or Patterson), but to me it has some logic. Filling in a spot behind probably the most talented player on the team, whose backup is already an overpaid veteran...that would cause me to lose my **** more.

[Dragonborn10]

QB's win championships not defenses

 

Carrington may push for a starting spot at DE.

 

Bradham is lining up at OLB

 

The base 3-4 with Mario at OLB will be used less than <40% of the time.

 

Branch's best values is as a DT next to Dareus in a four man line though I think he will beat out Williams and Troup for NT.

 

Call me crazy but the odd man out is Kyle Williams. I think his playing time will be dictated by how much time Branch and Troup spend at NT. I don't think he is a good fit for this defense at all. He is not fast enough to play DE in any alignment. He will be a rotational player at DT in a four man front.

He should have been traded when he had value.

[KeisterHollow]

As for Kyle Williams - as much as I like him, I have to agree - I've wondered where he'll fit this year. It seems to me Dareus and Kyle are too similar. Would a team like Dallas have given us something nice for Kyle Williams, since they're moving to that Tampa 2 type defense? Now, if Pettine has a place dedicated for him, then I'm all for it - but, he does seem to be misfit in this system.

 

And, the reason I brought up NT is because if a team doesn't have a good NT and they're running a 3-4 they're too susceptible to the run. You simply can't have a good 3-4 without a stout NT. So, if Branch isn't that guy, a guy like Lutelelei, or in later rounds maybe one of the big 340+ DT/NT's in this draft would suffice.