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A sensible football approach to FA.


Armchair GM

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Peersonal preferences aside, I tried to come up with some realistic options/scenarios (and I'm NOT saying we're going to go out and sign ALL of these guys, simply stating the most realistic options).

 

Based upon this Regime's method...here's my best shot:

 

Free Agency...It's known that they arn't splashy and have stuck to thier beliefs in building through the draft with minimal FA imports.

 

Jeremy Mincey DE, 6'3" 270lbs. 28 years old (Jacksonville). Fits the bill here. He filled in nicely for Kampmann with 57 tackles, 8 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Now, Jacksonville may realize his worth, but they may also bo out and try to grab an "elite" pass rusher and let Mincey test the waters in FA. Plus, he's on the right side of 30 and I don't suspect he'll demand a huge pay day. I think he'll benefit even more playing next to Williams & Dareus. (omitting Mathis, Campbell & Avril, all who will demand a significant pay day.)

 

Anthony Spencer OLB, 6'3" 257lbs. 28 years old (Dallas). I like this kid. Consistency is key here. He's a stout run defender and puts good pressure on the QB when called upon to do it. Some may say he bennefits from playing opposite of Ware, but I'm on the other side. He's on a big, high profile stage in the big D. I'm not saying Ware is who he is because of Spencer, but I think Spence help Ware more than Ware hurts Spence. (Omitting Williams despite the "interest" Buffalo has in him...I just don't see Ralph saying "OK" to the kind of $$ he'll demand.)

 

Terell Thomas CB, 6' 191lbs. 27 years old (Giants). Coming of a season ending injury, he's likely to be the odd man out in NY with Webster, Amakumara & Ross (also a FA). He's a big DB wih above average ball skills and an absolute BEAST on the perimeter in run support.

 

Laurent Robinson WR, 6'2" 190lbs 27 years old (Dallas). Another Big D cap casualty. With his breakout years and only being 26 (27 at the beginning og the 2012 season) he's entering his 6th year in the league and, to me, looks like he's come into his own. He's got good size & deep speed. He's expressed interest in staying in Dallas, but with the contracts of Austin & Bryant, they won't be able to pay Robinson #2 money as a #3 WR. (I'm betting on the other big names to stay put, ie. Jackson, Bowe, Lloyd...even Garcon in Indi, no way they let him walk with a new QB comming in.)

 

Sorry kids, I think they resign Bell and they have Hairston, too. I don't think we touch the OL in FA, other than depth...maybe.

Edited by Armchair GM
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Peersonal preferences aside, I tried to come up with some realistic options/scenarios (and I'm NOT saying we're going to go out and sign ALL of these guys, simply stating the most realistic options).

 

Based upon this Regime's method...here's my best shot:

 

Free Agency...It's known that they arn't splashy and have stuck to thier beliefs in building through the draft with minimal FA imports.

 

Jeremy Mincey DE, 6'3" 270lbs. 28 years old (Jacksonville). Fits the bill here. He filled in nicely for Kampmann with 5 tackles, 8 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Now, Jacksonville may realize his worth, but they may also bo out and try to grab an "elite" pass rusher and let Mincey test the waters in FA. Plus, he's on the right side of 30 and I don't suspect he'll demand a huge pay day. I think he'll benefit even more playing next to Williams & Dareus. (omitting Mathis, Campbell & Avril, all who will demand a significant pay day.)

 

Anthony Spencer OLB, 6'3" 257lbs. 28 years old (Dallas). I like this kid. Consistency is key here. He's a stout run defender and puts good pressure on the QB when called upon to do it. Some may say he bennefits from playing opposite of Ware, but I'm on the other side. He's on a big, high profile stage in the big D. I'm not saying Ware is who he is because of Spencer, but I think Spence help Ware more than Ware hurts Spence. (Omitting Williams despite the "interest" Buffalo has in him...I just don't see Ralph saying "OK" to the kind of $$ he'll demand.)

 

Terell Thomas CB, 6' 191lbs. 27 years old (Giants). Coming of a season ending injury, he's likely to be the odd man out in NY with Webster, Amakumara & Ross (also a FA). He's a big DB wih above average ball skills and an absolute BEAST on the perimeter in run support.

 

Laurent Robinson WR, 6'2" 190lbs 27 years old (Dallas). Another Big D cap casualty. With his breakout years and only being 26 (27 at the beginning og the 2012 season) he's entering his 6th year in the league and, to me, looks like he's come into his own. He's got good size & deep speed. He's expressed interest in staying in Dallas, but with the contracts of Austin & Bryant, they won't be able to pay Robinson #2 money as a #3 WR. (I'm betting on the other big names to stay put, ie. Jackson, Bowe, Lloyd...even Garcon in Indi, no way they let him walk with a new QB comming in.)

 

Sorry kids, I think they resign Bell and they have Hairston, too. I don't think we touch the OL in FA, other than depth...maybe.

 

I see no problem with any of that. Makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels. Finding those players that are on the cusp of taking it to a higher level is difficult to do but you will never do that unless you give guys a shot. As fans we're often too confined in our thinking that the big names equal big results when throughout the history of FAgency, the opposite is true more often that not.

 

That said, the Bills, like all teams, will assign a ranking system to the available FAs, much like they do for college players. It would be interesting to see the rankings assigned to the players you mention above.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Very good analysis and break down.

It is posts like this that i come to this site mainly.

Thank you.

I also think you did a good job in identifying guys that will not be first day 'big' signings.

But guys that will be very solid producers and for the most part i have not heard of any character questions with these guys. Am i wrong?

 

Also no mention of SJ? you think he leaves town?

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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Very good analysis and break down.

It is posts like this that i come to this site mainly.

Thank you.

I also think you did a good job in identifying guys that will not be first day 'big' signings.

But guys that will be very solid producers and for the most part i have not heard of any character questions with these guys. Am i wrong?

 

Also no mention of SJ? you think he leaves town?

 

Nope, pretty solid core group of guys that I have yet to hear of any off field issues with.

 

No way on SJ13...we NEED to sign him. If you really step back and think about it, he's got 2 drops, albeit critical, and a couple of lame brained penalties. This, out of kid who got no love his first couple years, then broke out and for all intensive purposes, followed up with a strong "2nd" year. He's a young kid, who's abviously has a chip on his shoulder...more like an " i told you so" attitude. Anyway, he's got a bit of maturing to do, but you can't take away the talent. He's got a large catching radious, makes the acrobatic type catches, and best of all...is an amazing route runner that creates seperation. Put a solid # 2 accross from him...(see Robinson, above) and that akes away double teams and he has an all pro future. Just calling like I see it, but I truely think that he is going to be something special in the comming years. READY FOR THE BOLD STATEMENT??? He'll be better than Reed was....BOOM!

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Armchair, I was with you, -or- before you on Spencer, and Robinson, I think these guys are signable and would impact our team tremendously, so kudos for great minds and all. I also think that the "big name" WR we nab if any will be Roy Williams from Chi Town.. He won't command even #3 money so why not? I actually like the kid we picked up from Oakland last year, and I predeict he makes the team as our number 3 guy. He showed some skillz in the few games he played. I'm nowhere near as worried about our offense if healthy than I am about the Defense. If any real money is spent it needs to be here, IMO.

 

 

Tim-

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Armchair, I was with you, -or- before you on Spencer, and Robinson, I think these guys are signable and would impact our team tremendously, so kudos for great minds and all. I also think that the "big name" WR we nab if any will be Roy Williams from Chi Town.. He won't command even #3 money so why not? I actually like the kid we picked up from Oakland last year, and I predeict he makes the team as our number 3 guy. He showed some skillz in the few games he played. I'm nowhere near as worried about our offense if healthy than I am about the Defense. If any real money is spent it needs to be here, IMO.

 

 

Tim-

 

I'm with you on Hagan (WR from Raiders). He def made an impression. I also think that Kamar Aiken is another SJ13 in the waiting. Once he gets his shot I think he'll prove he belongs. Can't say the same for Williams..he's had too many opportunities and he'll fall by the wayside. I just think Robinson fits the whole "needs a few years to come into his own" type and he's got trmendous upside. Dallas definitely wants him to stick around, they just won't be able to show him as much love as the open market.

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WHILE I SEE your point of mid to higher level free agents ,a sure thing is a sure thing,,

if they want to use free agency for additional depth your scenario is very possible. but if they want impact players in posiitons of need ,imo they make a play for colston not vincent jackson,,my reasoning is this.. colston is and has been a team player,jackson on the other hand is the team diva- prima donna,,, colston is a better fit, albeit smaller, but its a better fit,

then line up at calais campbells and bring the checkbook, those two added to the starting roster and you have impact! now to complete my wish list you add paul solai for the d-line, the possible line combinations with drive offensive coaches nuts,,

at that point the draft is all about linebackers and depth . upshaw would be my choice but hightower is a close second ,,after that vinny curry or micheal brockers if we get lucky ,, (chandler jones and andre branch are possible 2nd round picks also)

it appears that the back half of the first round has numerous players that fit our needs ,its wouldnt be that unlikely that the bills move up from the 2nd back into the first for a need player,

,but free agency is the key.. in the past the scouting and personel depts at one bills operated like independent units ,this year we see if its a competitive period for us or merely a offseason event we watch from the sidelines saying, WHO?

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While I agree that you listed some very realistic signings - I really hope we don't go after Mincey. 5 of his 8 sacks came against Indy and their scrub QB and this is the only year the guy has done anything, not coincidentally it happens to be his contract year. Some team is going to overpay for him.

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