MRM33064 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 After Week 5, I've got our beloved Bills pegged with the following possible outcomes. These based on my own (subjective) current power ratings, which put the Bills as somewhere between the 5th-8th best team in the league. #1 team is the Pats, #32 team is the Rams, with roughly a 20 point differential between the 2 teams on a neutral field. Season Wins (Buffalo): 8 or less: About 5% 9 or 10 : About 28% 11 or 12 : About 44% 13 or 14 : About 20% 15: About 3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreakPop Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anyone who is expecting 11 wins or better is setting themselves up for disappointment. This team still has glaring weaknesses which will be exploited as we get deeper into the season. On a neutral field i'd take the following afc teams ahead of us: ne, pitt, balt, texans, jets, raiders, chargers. Other than Green Bay and maybe Detroit explain to us what other teams DO NOT have any weaknesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anyone who is expecting 11 wins or better is setting themselves up for disappointment. This team still has glaring weaknesses which will be exploited as we get deeper into the season. On a neutral field i'd take the following afc teams ahead of us: ne, pitt, balt, texans, jets, raiders, chargers. Got to say, pitt, texans, and jets dont really scare me much. Not syaing wouldnt be a tough game at all, but Bills have shown they can beat better caliber teams. Balt is the best team i think, or more complete team, good O and good D. The other teams all have weakness' and it will be up to Chan and his staff to exploit them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB2004 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Seems like a fun game NY Giants L Sun. Oct. 23 BYE WASHINGTON* W NY JETS W at Dallas L at Miami W at NY Jets L TENNESSEE W at San Diego L MIAMI W DENVER W at New England L 10-6 NY Giants W Sun. Oct. 23 BYE WASHINGTON* W NY JETS W at Dallas L at Miami W at NY Jets L TENNESSEE W at San Diego L MIAMI W DENVER W at New England L I predict/agree with almost your picks. I think we will win Sunday against New York. I'll predict 11-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 i hope this roller coaster takes us to 5-1 at the bye. at the very least we finish the season at .500 end the year 10-6, possibly 12-4, assuming the wheels don't totally fall off after they bye. we do have a tough road streak after the bye. a loss at nyg could nab us at a 9-7 which is also a solid record, but i am hoping for 10. after the last few years. i take our wins we have and hope for .500 for the rest of the year. its just something ive evolved to over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep2evans Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 After Week 5, I've got our beloved Bills pegged with the following possible outcomes. These based on my own (subjective) current power ratings, which put the Bills as somewhere between the 5th-8th best team in the league. #1 team is the Pats, #32 team is the Rams, with roughly a 20 point differential between the 2 teams on a neutral field. Season Wins (Buffalo): 8 or less: About 5% 9 or 10 : About 28% 11 or 12 : About 44% 13 or 14 : About 20% 15: About 3% cool, i dig this kind of stuff. can you make it more detailed/specific and show the odds for each individual win total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West End Stench Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 (edited) NY Giants L Sun. Oct. 23 BYE WASHINGTON* W NY JETS L at Dallas W at Miami L *Bad Loss at NY Jets W *Good Win TENNESSEE L at San Diego L MIAMI W DENVER W at New England L * 9-6 headed into a showdown at New England. Good luck with that. If Buffalo wants a shot at the playoffs, they'll need to somehow get 10 wins before headed to New England. *The New England game might be a tough call and depends on how the Pats end up at the end of the regular season. If they have clinched the AFC, which is entirely possible, the week prior, then Buffalo might not see Brady and Welker the entire game. Still, I get the feeling that Hoody will be out for blood no matter what the situation is against the Bills. Edited October 14, 2011 by West End Stench Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clippers of Nfl Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 We are not on the team so we are allowed to look ahead. And be overly optimistic. Based upon how they are playing and how the opponents are looking I think the following is very possible. Maybe an additional loss to Washington, Dallas or one of the Jets games, but otherwise 13-3! NY Giants w Sun. Oct. 23 BYE WASHINGTON* w NY JETS w at Dallas w at Miami w at NY Jets l TENNESSEE w at San Diego w MIAMI w DENVER w at New England w I only see us losing one more. San d has not been impressive. They have won, but not like champs. Normally they start weak and finish strong, this time thewill finish weak. Raiders should win that division. Jets are still a good team. They could sweep us. Pats are going down because we have turned the corner. We are not better than them, but we think we are. As a result, we sqeep the pats. By then we will also know how to beat them better as they will lose games too. Redskins have grossman. Gross plays gross. His usual sorry ass self will come out. Last. All u predicting only 8 or 9 wins are not football fans and dont have football knowledge. Sit down and let me and senator take over Ps typing from a smartphone tonight. Excuse typing errors and enjoying a nice scotch buzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRM33064 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 cool, i dig this kind of stuff. can you make it more detailed/specific and show the odds for each individual win total? Sure, if folks are interested I'll start posting w/detail next week. Here is my general methodology if you'd like to try it yourself: 1. Assign pointspread-based power ratings to each team in the league, assuming a neutral field. This is obviously subjective, and different folks have their own ways of doing it, but there are fairly respected ratings to use out there if you don't want to construct your own (e.g Jeff Sagarin's ratings, published in USA today.) You can also derive estimates for teams based on current Vegas lines as compared to prior weeks, etc. 2. Adjust those spreads for the various home-field opportunities, based on each team's assumed HFA (again subjective), assign a spread to each game. 3. Convert each pointspread into a probability-to-win-straight-up. These figures are derived from my own data set, but to give you a general idea, a line of 0 would equate to a 50% chance of winning that game, straight up. As a team becomes a greater favorite, the % chance of winning goes up, and vice-versa. Again, you can construct tables yourself on these or find other folks conversion tables on the web. 4. Take each individual win probability and construct a normal distribution. Voila. A lot of this gives the illusion that it's more precise than it is, but then again, it helps construct a logical response to the naysayers who throw out ridiculous (usually negative) projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRM33064 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 FWIW, my ratings have Bills between 8th-12th in the league. The difference between my highest rated team (BAL) and the lowest (STL) is roughly 21 points on a neutral field. WINS/EXACTLY 0 0.00% 1 0.00% 2 0.00% 3 0.00% 4 0.00% 5 0.04% 6 0.43% 7 2.36% 8 8.11% 9 18.04% 10 26.30% 11 24.82% 12 14.50% 13 4.74% 14 0.66% 15 0.00% 16 0.00% Individual game probabilities are available, but in general I have the Bills favored against WAS, MIA (both times), TEN, DEN. Close calls on SDG, DAL, and both NYJ games. Underdogs to NE. Let the criticism begin! :-) Happy to share my modeling info or data with anyone else who enjoys this kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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