Judging the draft specialists

[Beerball]

I do not have this information but wouldn't it be interesting to review the 09 draftnics to see what they thought of Maybin and then determine theeir potential credibility for this years draft. If the Bills are going to go D line or LB at 3 then I think this is essential information since most of us get our preferences based on their writings not on our ability to scout.

 

Any thoughts?

This will give you some of the picks, when melded together they pointed to Maybin at 14.

 

Jeff Risdon #26

Kiper #15

Scouts Inc. #13

Don Banks #18

PFW #20

Pete Prisco #13

Draft Countdown #13

National Football Post #10

NFL House #15

FF Toolbox #10

[Thoner7]

Post links of draktniks that don't like 1st round prospects. Try to find a statement where they explicitly say the prospect isn't likely to do well in the NFL, they are very few and far between.

 

I've never seen someone come out with their guns blazing and says "this guys will be a bust"

 

Its all flip flopping and talking out of both sides of their mouths. They have to hedge their bets because 90% have no NFL experience of any kind. They have as much knowledge as many posters on this board.

 

If Thoner7, NoSaint, and San Jose put up their own draftnik site it would probably be better than most of the "specialists" out there.

 

The Truth is Maybi Maybin goes to the Giants, and with the way that team plays and coaches, he gets 10 sacks a season and this board adds Maybin, to the list of players the Bills "could have had" and are complaining about who ever the Bills took instead.

 

I get what you are saying with developing players and such, but I completely disagree. I think that reasoning is 100% backwards.

 

The Giants never would have drafted Maybin in the first place. Why? Because they have a well built FO with scouts who know what to look for – especially in Dlineman. Just because one team took Maybin in the 1st round, doesn’t mean every team had a 1st round grade on him. (just read the opinions on this board, some want Newton at #3 overall, while others say maybe in the 3rd round. With Tebow the Broncos traded up into the 1st to get him, while some teams and scouts said he was a 4th rounder. This is very common place to have a wide range of opinions on one player) My bet is real teams like the Giants, Ravens, Pats, Stealers, etc had Maybin so far down their draft boards that there was effectively zero chance they end up drafting him because a bad team like the Bills, Bungals, Lions of old, would have taken him long before he became BPA on their boards.

 

My point is that good teams draft good players, while bad teams draft bad players. That’s what makes them good or bad. A bad player like Maybin was only going to be drafted by a bad team, because all the good teams knew he was bad.

[1B4IDie]

I get what you are saying with developing players and such, but I completely disagree. I think that reasoning is 100% backwards.

 

The Giants never would have drafted Maybin in the first place. Why? Because they have a well built FO with scouts who know what to look for – especially in Dlineman. Just because one team took Maybin in the 1st round, doesn’t mean every team had a 1st round grade on him. (just read the opinions on this board, some want Newton at #3 overall, while others say maybe in the 3rd round. With Tebow the Broncos traded up into the 1st to get him, while some teams and scouts said he was a 4th rounder. This is very common place to have a wide range of opinions on one player) My bet is real teams like the Giants, Ravens, Pats, Stealers, etc had Maybin so far down their draft boards that there was effectively zero chance they end up drafting him because a bad team like the Bills, Bungals, Lions of old, would have taken him long before he became BPA on their boards.

 

My point is that good teams draft good players, while bad teams draft bad players. That’s what makes them good or bad. A bad player like Maybin was only going to be drafted by a bad team, because all the good teams knew he was bad.

 

I never said 1st.

 

There's a value perspective as well. Maybin in the 2nd or 3rd might be a pick the Giants make, then we're back to the nature vs nurture discussion.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Post links of draktniks that don't like 1st round prospects. Try to find a statement where they explicitly say the prospect isn't likely to do well in the NFL, they are very few and far between.

 

I've never seen someone come out with their guns blazing and says "this guys will be a bust"

 

Its all flip flopping and talking out of both sides of their mouths. They have to hedge their bets because 90% have no NFL experience of any kind. They have as much knowledge as many posters on this board.

 

If Thoner7, NoSaint, and San Jose put up their own draftnik site it would probably be better than most of the "specialists" out there.

 

The Truth is Maybi Maybin goes to the Giants, and with the way that team plays and coaches, he gets 10 sacks a season and this board adds Maybin, to the list of players the Bills "could have had" and are complaining about who ever the Bills took instead.

Yes, there's lots of equivocating that goes on when these guys talk. It's kind of similar to politicians addressing an issue. They're always wary enough to keep their escape routes clear.

 

Very good of Beerball to do some research on the subject with mock draft projections on where Maybin would be taken. I'd actually be interested to know where Maybin was rated on draft boards more so than the mock drafts. That might be a better indicator as to what degree the Bills reached for him.

 

Thanks for the compliment, WSS. Much appreciated. There are a lot of knowledgeable football fans on our board.

 

 

 

 

[Cash]

I had Maybin as a marginal 5th round talent at best.I know Mayock didn’t like Maybin at all, and McShay couldn’t get off his nuts.But, many people, including me, think Maybin and Von Miller are very very similar. I would like to chart peoples opinions on Maybin and compare them to Miller. I know Mayock likes Miller, but didn’t like Maybin at all. The Walter Football guy didn’t like Maybin and doesn’t like Miller I am pretty sure. Anyone who wants to dig that info up I would appreciate.

 

Walter hated the Maybin pick: http://walterfootball.com/offseason2009buf.php

 

"I don't understand this. The Bills need a left tackle, the second-highest position of value in the NFL. Michael Oher was a no-brainer. But even if Buffalo didn't want Oher, what about Brian Orakpo? Did the Bills forget he was on the board? Aaron Maybin had only one year of production at Penn State. He's way too unproven to be selected over solid prospects like Oher and Orakpo. (Pick Grade: D)"

 

If you check out his overall Bills' draft grade (too long to quote here), he specifically mentions Todd McShay and Trent Dilfer as having high praise for the Bills' draft.

 

 

I'm at work and do not have access to youtube, but I believe that you can youtube the video of when he is drafted and when the pick is made both Kiper and McShay are very weary of the pick.

 

McFraud was very bullish on Maybin. Can't find the ESPN clip of when Maybin was drafted, but here's McShay's pre-draft breakdown of Maybin:

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4094460

 

I personally remember McShay gushing over Maybin when the Bills drafted him, calling him the best pass-rusher in the draft. I'm not sure of that, but that's how I remember it. Mayock was less enthused:

 

[NoSaint]

I get what you are saying with developing players and such, but I completely disagree. I think that reasoning is 100% backwards.

 

The Giants never would have drafted Maybin in the first place. Why? Because they have a well built FO with scouts who know what to look for – especially in Dlineman. Just because one team took Maybin in the 1st round, doesn’t mean every team had a 1st round grade on him. (just read the opinions on this board, some want Newton at #3 overall, while others say maybe in the 3rd round. With Tebow the Broncos traded up into the 1st to get him, while some teams and scouts said he was a 4th rounder. This is very common place to have a wide range of opinions on one player) My bet is real teams like the Giants, Ravens, Pats, Stealers, etc had Maybin so far down their draft boards that there was effectively zero chance they end up drafting him because a bad team like the Bills, Bungals, Lions of old, would have taken him long before he became BPA on their boards.

 

My point is that good teams draft good players, while bad teams draft bad players. That’s what makes them good or bad. A bad player like Maybin was only going to be drafted by a bad team, because all the good teams knew he was bad.

 

I think it depends on the player. I see a lot of examples of each. I think that a player like maybin had a shot of success, albeit very low. Say orakpo and maybin are staring a team in the face- I think we are one of very few that take maybin. This lends itself to your theory.

 

On the flip side- no scouting department is immaculate. Should the giants have whiffed on maybins scouting and taken him, or even if it was say a second round pick with a similar player but less hype- I still think that he's only 20% likely to succeed in buff but maybe 30-40% likely with another giants/ravens/steelers team (given schemes, coaching, surrounding talent, and general player development).

 

The two sides really make up the successful teams out there. Getting the best players and putting them in the best situations once you have them. The last ten years we have done neither very effectively at the top of the draft.

 

The book on maybin though... Should've been easy to write in advance. He was too small even when he bulked up to 250 ish- as you know he'd shed weight during the season. He was also terribly slow and lacked explosion at the combine with that extra weight. This is something that worries me with miller - if he puts even 15 lbs on, how much does that hurt his speed. It's part of why Quinn intrigues me so much- he could be about 3-4 tenths of a second faster then maybin was at the combine, and that's 20lbs over maybins high water mark of 250.

Edited February 26, 2011 by NoSaint

[JohnC]

I get what you are saying with developing players and such, but I completely disagree. I think that reasoning is 100% backwards.

 

The Giants never would have drafted Maybin in the first place. Why? Because they have a well built FO with scouts who know what to look for especially in Dlineman. Just because one team took Maybin in the 1st round, doesnt mean every team had a 1st round grade on him. (just read the opinions on this board, some want Newton at #3 overall, while others say maybe in the 3rd round. With Tebow the Broncos traded up into the 1st to get him, while some teams and scouts said he was a 4th rounder. This is very common place to have a wide range of opinions on one player) My bet is real teams like the Giants, Ravens, Pats, Stealers, etc had Maybin so far down their draft boards that there was effectively zero chance they end up drafting him because a bad team like the Bills, Bungals, Lions of old, would have taken him long before he became BPA on their boards.

 

My point is that good teams draft good players, while bad teams draft bad players. Thats what makes them good or bad. A bad player like Maybin was only going to be drafted by a bad team, because all the good teams knew he was bad.

 

Excellent post. The teams you mentioned (Steelers, Ravens, Giants and Pats) put a big emphasis on their defensive fronts. All those teams have big powerful lines allowing their behind defenders more room to make plays. I still boil with anger over our taking Whitner over Ngata. It was beyond being stupid. It was a franchise sabotaging act of malfeasance.

 

Another factor that sticks out with the noted teams is that their franchise qbs are very good: (Rapacious Ben, Flacco, Eli and Tom Terrific). The Bills have Fitz.

 

As you stated good teams draft well and bad teams draft poorly, with the Bills not only being bad but very frequently being peculiar drafters. While the bottom feeding teams get enamored with exceptional athletes who perform well in their shorts the other teams have a fundamental approach of drafting the best football players--not the most impressive looking football players.

 

There were some howls about the Bills picking Spiller in the first round. But overall looking back at Nix's first draft I get the sense that he is following the right drafting model.

Edited February 28, 2011 by JohnC