The third pick

[Mickey]

This is to supplement the earlier thread on what could be seen from close examination of the tape of the Seahawks game. Mostly I concentrated on good plays by the offense. Here is one that didn't turn out so well.

 

Drew's third pick, the one the safety nabbed at the the middle of the field was a tough one to figure out. What follows is simply my opinion and on this one, unless you are in the film room hearing what the coaches have to say, there is more than one defensible opinion here. My end conclusion is that the pick was a combination of things that all added up to trouble.

 

It was third down and 6 from the Seattle 42. We had 4 receivers in the pattern. Moulds was alone on the left and we had three guys on the right. The nearest guy on the left ran a pattern across the field basically crisscrossing with Moulds who was going the opposite was on a very shallow pattern, pretty much along the line of scrimmage. The middle guy ended up being the intended receiver. He ran a short post, he went straight about 12 yards down and then angled to the middle. The wideout on that side did a square in or button hook in, hard to tell exactly.

 

Essentailly we had three guys on the right running patterns that turned to the left and then Moulds going the opposite way underneath, waaaay underneath. The Seahawks rushed 6 including a safety and had 5 in coverage. The safety that blitzed was on our right side initially. Right before the snap he move forward and angled to our left a bit before heading straight in. The remaining safety was on our left, near the hashmark on that side.

 

The safety blitzing in jumped in the air and had his arms up and was right in line with the safety that was deep and may have kept Drew from seeing him. Seeing that one safety come might have lured Drew into thinking the middle of the field is open which is pretty much the weakness teams try to expose when there is a safety blitz. We have been caught in this situation with out own defense. We blitz a safety and the one left goes to help a CB with an outside receiver while a Fletcher tries to cover a TE on a streak. I think the Dolphins scored against us with that play if I recall.

 

The thing is, the remaining safety didn't go help with an outside receiver since the one on his side was Moulds who was crossing going left to right. To the extent that safety, having the deep coverage on Moulds, stayed with him, he also moved to our right. That took him right to the right hash mark area where the slot guy was running his short post. In other words, the design of the play moved that safety into position to make a play on a receiver he wasn't even covering.

 

Moulds wasn't open and was too short to get the first down if Drew threw to him. The far wideout on the left was running a pattern that put him so close to the slot guy that the slot defender could have made a play on a pass thrown that way. The guy who had the best shot was, I think it was Smith, the guy running the 5 yard criss cross going right to left. He was covered pretty well but it was just him and one defender.

 

Drew was looking right all the way but then again, 3 of his 4 receivers were on that side. That further helped to convince the safety to move to that side of the field. Maybe Smith was his 4th read and he never got there because his 3rd read was open or at least looked open because Drew couldn't see the safety and more importantly, didn't know the safety had moved with Moulds and Drew's eyes to that side of the field.

 

In short, it was an excellent read by the safety and a little lucky the way the leaping rusher sort of blocked out Drew's view. Of more concern was Drew not giving a look to Smith, 4th read or not. Also the design of the play that pretty much helped draw the defender to the side of the play where all the receivers were didn't help. I'd blame Drew on this one for about 40% of it with 20% to the recievers for not really getting open and the rest to the play call and very good defense by the 'hawks.

[Yard Monkey]

Shame no one commented on this, but good analysis! It seems like a plausible scenario.

[OnTheRocks]

In short,

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you have a marvelous way with getting to the point Mick!

[Generation ME]

  I'd blame Drew on this one

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That's all I needed to read. We know he can't read the safety.

 

Did you just get TiVo and speed ?

[KurtGodel77]

That was an excellent analysis.

[Nanker]

That was an excellent analysis.

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But is there any way he might be mistaken?

[Kelly the Dog]

I havent seen the TV replays but I must say, watching the three INT's develop clearly live at the game, and then seeing the jumbotron replays they showed at the stadium immediately thereafter, all three INT's appeared to be not only bad reads but clear overthrows on Drew's part. Especially the one in the endzone to Evans. Again, I don't know what it looked like on TV but that was a terrible decision all the way and you could see the INT coming almost from the snap. The safety was on that play and ball all the way, and Evans was never, ever open. That was an easy pick by Lucas and bad, bad throw. And I think Drew had a very good overall game and have never been a Drew basher (although I am now looking for the Losman era to begin). The pass to Euhus that was intercepted (I think by Hamlin) also looked like a clear overthrow to an open receiver as you saw it developing. You had very good analysis on this and the other thread, Mick, but TV replays are really deceiving sometimes, especially when it comes to actual space between defenders and receivers or running backs.

[nemhoff]

I havent seen the TV replays but I must say, watching the three INT's develop clearly live at the game, and then seeing the jumbotron replays they showed at the stadium immediately thereafter, all three INT's appeared to be not only bad reads but clear overthrows on Drew's part. Especially the one in the endzone to Evans. Again, I don't know what it looked like on TV but that was a terrible decision all the way and you could see the INT coming almost from the snap. The safety was on that play and ball all the way, and Evans was never, ever open. That was an easy pick by Lucas and bad, bad throw. And I think Drew had a very good overall game and have never been a Drew basher (although I am now looking for the Losman era to begin). The pass to Euhus that was intercepted (I think by Hamlin) also looked like a clear overthrow to an open receiver as you saw it developing. You had very good analysis on this and the other thread, Mick, but TV replays are really deceiving sometimes, especially when it comes to actual space between defenders and receivers or running backs.

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Also being at the game, his first pick was one of the worst seam throws I have ever seen. The ball (coming right at me) was floated to a wide open Euhus, easy for the safety to get. The second was a heave that never should've been thrown into double coverage, basically a jump ball. The third was a bad read by Drew, and an easy jump (looked like the seahawk defender had watched enough drew film to know exactly how to jump the play).

[KurtGodel77]

But is there any way he might be mistaken?

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[sarcasm] Of course not. As I clearly indicated in my original post, I believe Mickey is always right. [/sarcasm]. Seriously, if you think his analysis is wrong, you should tell us what you saw on that play. It's not necessary for you to say, "he's human and fallible," because, well, we knew that already.