Get ready for the second half of the year.....

[IDBillzFan]

That's a good one.

Well, look at this; introducing the Bud Light of budgets.

 

All the spending you love, with none of that pesky deficit stuff to get in the way.

 

House Democrats are readying an alternative budget measure that would set next year’s spending levels without requiring a vote on deficits.

 

House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) said the alternative would be the “functional equivalent” of a full-fledged budget. But because it won't be a traditional budget resolution, it will be silent on future deficits, which are expected to average nearly $1 trillion for the next decade.

 

Democrats have expressed concern about voting for a document showing lots of red ink in an election year.

 

I think once they pass this, they'll get to work on a cap-n-tax bill that will talk about saving energy, but won't be required to discuss how much taxes will go up.

 

These are guys are awesome.

[DC Tom]

Well, look at this; introducing the Bud Light of budgets.

 

All the spending you love, with none of that pesky deficit stuff to get in the way.

 

 

 

I think once they pass this, they'll get to work on a cap-n-tax bill that will talk about saving energy, but won't be required to discuss how much taxes will go up.

 

These are guys are awesome.

 

Up to 2006, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were funded with "supplemental appropriations", in order to keep the deficit spending low in the budgets voted on by the Republican Congress. After the Democrats got control, the Bush White House sent budgets to Congress with the war spending rolled in, daring them to either cut it ("We told you! Democrats are soft on defense!") or take responsibility for the much larger deficits ("We told you! Democrats are fiscally irresponsible!")

 

In short: this is business as usual. Manipulate how spending is approved and portrayed to keep from embarrassing yourself and screw over the other guy. Usually, however, they're a lot more subtle about it than Spratt's being.

[Magox]

Looking at todays existing housing numbers.

Sales of U.S. previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in May, a sign demand was probably pulled into prior months before a June tax-credit deadline.

 

Purchases of existing houses, which are tabulated when a contract closes, decreased 2.2 percent to a 5.66 million annual rate, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. To receive a government incentive worth as much as $8,000, buyers must have signed contracts by the end of April and need to complete deals by the end of this month.

 

The decline raises the risk the retrenchment following the expiration of the tax credit will be deeper than anticipated. A slump in builder shares since late April has exceeded the retreat in the broader market on concern the damage from the end of government stimulus, mounting foreclosures and unemployment may cause renewed weakness.

 

Sales “will be pretty soft for the next few months,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, whose sales forecast was the closest among economists surveyed. “Ultimately, you’re going to need job growth to see a sustainable recovery in housing.”

 

Less Than Forecast

 

Existing home sales were forecast to rise to a 6.12 million rate, according to the median forecast of 74 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 5.2 million to 6.5 million. The group revised April’s sales rate up to a 5.79 million pace from the 5.77 million rate previously reported.

 

Declines in inventories have slowed in recent months, posing a risk for the market, Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist said in a press conference. Yun said this “overhang” in supply a concern and may lead to further declines in property values in coming months.

 

The number of mortgage applications filed to purchase houses dropped this month to the lowest level since 1997, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

[John Adams]

The zombies are coming the zombies are coming.

[Magox]

The sand is warm the sand is warm

[/dev/null]

The zombies are coming

Are you watching Zombie pr0n?

[John Adams]

The sand is warm the sand is warm

 

When is the antichrist at full power?

 

I notice you couldn't respond to my last response when you went with the head in the sand angle.

[Magox]

I notice you couldn't respond to my last response when you went with the head in the sand angle.

Oh trust me I did... I spent over an hour on it yesterday, full details, a lot of thought, many links and right before I went to send it to you, a DEBUGING error of some sort erased it all. Talk about being pissed, I was pissed as hell. Sorry, I dont have the energy to rewrite another response, however, I am about to begin writing a biweekly economic newsletter and some of the things that I covered yesterday will be in it, not that you are eagerly awaiting it or anything. But I did respond to it yesterday.

 

I will continue to keep posting ZOMBIE data just for you JA, and I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am.

[John Adams]

Oh trust me I did... I spent over an hour on it yesterday, full details, a lot of thought, many links and right before I went to send it to you, a DEBUGING error of some sort erased it all. Talk about being pissed, I was pissed as hell. Sorry, I dont have the energy to rewrite another response, however, I am about to begin writing a biweekly economic newsletter and some of the things that I covered yesterday will be in it, not that you are eagerly awaiting it or anything. But I did respond to it yesterday.

 

I will continue to keep posting ZOMBIE data just for you JA, and I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am.

 

When did you change your name man? And welcome back!

[Magox]

When did you change your name man? And welcome back!

Was that another attempt of yours in trying to be funny?

 

Fail!!

 

Again

 

ostrich boy

[John Adams]

Was that another attempt of yours in trying to be funny?

 

Fail!!

 

Again

 

ostrich boy

 

Anyone who says "I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am" and claims to be a money manager...but still posts on Bills PPP websites has got delusions of grandeur. And I really mean delusions. Basically, reality may not set in for you ever. Or maybe you're Warren Buffet. My guess is the former but if you're the latter, please buy the Bills from Ralph since it seems like you care.

[Magox]

Anyone who says "I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am" and claims to be a money manager...but still posts on Bills PPP websites has got delusions of grandeur.

That made no sense whatsoever.... But stay smug JA, because thats what you do best.

[John Adams]

But stay smug JA, because thats what you do best.

 

Says the guy who said ""I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am."

 

Love yourself much?

[Magox]

Says the guy who said ""I WILL be right with my economic predictions as I usually am."

 

Love yourself much?

Ok JA

[Magox]

Yesterday was the existing home sales numbers today the new home sales report.

 

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in May to a record low as a tax credit expired, showing the market remains dependent on government support.

 

Sales collapsed a record 33 percent to an annual pace of 300,000 last month from April, less than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the fewest in data going back to 1963, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Demand in prior months was revised down.

 

“May was a bad month for the economy,” J. Alfred Broaddus, former Richmond Fed president, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In Business With Margaret Brennan.” When the Fed releases its policy statement today, its language on the economy will be “markedly more pessimistic,” he said.

 

Exceeds Drop Projected

 

Sales were projected to drop 19 percent to a 410,000 annual pace, according to median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from 300,000 to 530,000. The government revised April’s purchase rate down to 446,000 from a previously reported 504,000.

 

Consumer Outlook

 

“Concerns about the financial crisis in Europe and escalating regional political tensions, coupled with worries about the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and its effects on the economy and the environment have negatively impacted the outlook of American consumers,” Joel H. Rassman, chief financial officer at Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll, said in a June 16 statement.

[John Adams]

Ok JA

 

Hey look a strawman. You're arguing with someone who says "The economic recovery is real." Not me. But if you can tear yourself away from admiring yourself, carry on.

[Magox]

Hey look a strawman. You're arguing with someone who says "The economic recovery is real." Not me.

This coming from a person who invests in things he doesn´t understand.

 

Ok JA

[Magox]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-23/f...mic-growth.html

 

Federal Reserve officials retained a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low for an “extended period” and signaled that European indebtedness may harm American growth.

 

“The economic recovery is proceeding” and “the labor market is improving gradually,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Still, “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.”

 

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to cut unemployment that’s close to a 26-year-high and maintain the recovery as new- home sales slide and growth in private payrolls weakens. He must also contend with fallout from the European debt crisis, which has pushed share prices lower and threatens to shake consumer and business confidence.

 

While Bernanke said June 9 the European crisis would have a “modest” effect on the U.S. assuming financial markets “continue to stabilize,” Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo told Congress in May that the situation has the potential to stall the global economy.

 

 

Best Buy Co., the world’s largest consumer-electronics retailer, last week reported first-quarter profit that rose less than analysts projected. FedEx Corp., the world’s largest air- cargo carrier, forecast annual profit that trailed analysts’ estimates on rising health-care and pension costs.

 

“The recent, incoming news has been worrisome both in the U.S. and Europe, and indications are at this point that the recovery is not as strong or as healthy as we would have hoped,” said James Hamilton, a former Fed research adviser who is now at the University of California at San Diego.

 

Fed policy makers delivered updated quarterly economic forecasts at this week’s meeting, and economists including former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley say officials probably trimmed their expectations for U.S. growth.

 

Damn Zombie pushers....

 

On a brighter note

 

Not all signs are pointing to a growth slowdown. Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in May for a 10th month as a private export index climbed to the highest level in two decades. Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in June to the highest level in more than two years, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey.

 

We´ll see if that can hold up, my guess is that Consumer confidence has peaked for now in the June reading and that the July report will show a decline.

[Magox]

4 points of data today:

 

Greek Bonds Spreads surge to record today. Which is very bad, probably means that the ECB will continue their bond purchases for quite some time.

 

“Concern about Europe will be there for awhile,” said Stanley Nabi, New York-based vice chairman of Silvercrest Asset Management Group, which manages $9 billion. “There had been too much enthusiasm that the recession was over. It’s very noticeable that there has been a scale-back in expectations. The vigor of the recovery has moderated.”

 

Jobless claims numbers report came out today

 

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits decreased by 19,000 to 457,000 in the week ended June 19, according to the Labor Department

 

Thats a mixed bag, the good part is that it decreased, the bad news is that it´s still too high and when you average in the previous 4 weeks, which is the best weight to measure it, because it takes some of the volatility out of it, the 4 week average rose.

 

Durable goods orders:

 

Orders for goods meant to last at least three years, excluding autos and aircraft, rose in May for the third time in four months. The 0.9 percent increase followed a 0.8 percent decrease in April, figures from the Commerce Department showed.

 

“Capital spending still remains pretty good and manufacturing has been the beneficiary,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, in an e- mailed note. “We should be thankful for the strong balance sheets of corporate America and hope they continue to invest.”

 

This was positive, which is consistent with previous readings.

 

The S&P 500 is near a level that, if broken, could lead the U.S. equity benchmark to a 14-month low, according to BTIG LLC.

 

Should the index fall 3.8 percent from yesterday’s close, it would complete what analysts who study charts to make forecasts define as a “head-and-shoulders” pattern. That occurs after three successive rallies that an index can’t sustain. The middle peak -- the head -- marks the highest point. A drop below the “neckline” of 1,050, which passes through the lowest point of the pattern, could take the benchmark to 883, according to Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG.

 

“The pattern being formed is far from textbook,” said Yardley, Pennsylvania-based O’Rourke, whose firm serves institutional investors. “It lacks symmetry. For an ideal symmetry, the right shoulder should occur in late July, early August. This is not my base case, but instead investors should be on alert in case the pattern completes.”

 

There is some caution in the technical outlook.

[Magox]

On a slightly positive note:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-28/c...n-forecast.html

 

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in May more than forecast, a sign households are gaining confidence in the recovery and the job market.

 

Purchases rose 0.2 percent after little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today. Incomes climbed 0.4 and the savings rate increased to the highest level in eight months.

 

Demand may accelerate as gains in payrolls, longer workweeks and rising pay are giving Americans the means to spend. Federal Reserve policy makers last week pledged to keep interest rates low to ensure households weather the fallout from the European debt crisis, unemployment hovering near a 26-year high and tight credit.

 

“The labor market is gradually improving, labor income is picking up and that should continue to support spending,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. “We see a solid, trend-like growth in spending” in coming months.

 

All the hiring that took place over the last few months, roughly 800,000 census jobs most likely also contributed to the uptick in spending, my guess is that this will flatline in the second half of the year.

 

The Fed last week said the labor market is “improving gradually,” changing April’s assessment that it was “beginning to improve.” Consumer spending still “remains constrained” by joblessness and “tight credit,” it said.