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Posts posted by BillsVet
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
This was in response to EinsteinVet saying Beane should have double dipped and taken Franklin in the 4 th round. Well, how is that any different than signing a former 2nd round FA (Claypool) or an MVS, or drafting Shorter last year and seeing what he has this year after being injured last year.
Try reading and following the conversation next time.
Your draft status doesn't mean squat 5 years down the road. It earns zero credit when you become a street free agent signing. Absolutely zero. And signing an incentive laden contract after playing in KC isn't the big win you point it out to be. MVS barely average 2 catches per game last year and was among the lowest catch rate in the NFL - playing with Patrick Mahomes.
I pointed out that Shorter was a big disappointment former 5 star recruit. You didn't know that before posting, nor that he averaged about 2 catches and 32 yards per game in about 4 college seasons.
These are clown takes bro.
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4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
If you don’t like them then Shorter is another guy that was drafted around where we supposedly should have double dipped. If Claypool gets his head screwed on straight I think he can be a solid contributor. If not then cut him.
And again if Beane wants to bring in a guy like say Lamb fine by me.
And if I hit on that quick pick down at the convenience store I'll be golden for a month. Or win the VFW Cash Raffle on Labor Day. Or, my penny stocks really take off.
Either this is a parody take or you actually believe college disappointment 5 star recruits suddenly figure it out after years of no production. I can't tell anymore.
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10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
I guess Shakir fits the bill then
"Hey, here's one play in a game that proves my point the Bills WR's are really good."
I'm really trying hard not to see you as a parody account, but I've seen more parody takes in this thread than I believed possible.
It's why my prediction is you and select others by Week 8 will either be (1) finding excuses for the lack of offensive production (particularly the WR's) or (2) completely invisible from TSW. A few brave souls will acknowledge the Bills passing game and overall offensive philosophy wasn't ready for primetime or sufficient for the QB.
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On 6/24/2024 at 6:34 PM, Your Brown Eye said:
How is our dopey coach gonna screw up this year
He already has by insisting on a philosophy that emphasizes the defense must be protected by a run heavy and thus less explosive offense.
The Bills always spin the off-season wheel and it winds up on the same spot: McD's vision doesn't need changing much at all. And Beane supports that vision with personnel decisions in both UFA and the draft which fit that philosophy.
The franchise needs a shift and a big move to shake it up. Not the safe, methodical approach which views both sides of the ball equally. They're not.
At a certain point in the future this philosophy is going to run head long into personnel decisions at the most important position.
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13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Multiple high end pass catchers does not work when you have a star QB and the salary cap.
It does when you draft them before it becomes necessary to replace a guy lost in UFA or needs to be traded. Prevents having to trade for/sign them in UFA because you refuse to draft and therefore don't develop them. The Bills used UFA or traded for several offensive players and therefore paid a premium.
They didn't do so well developing guys on their first contract, particularly at WR.
Buffalo used 2 2nd round picks and traded a first over an 8 year span on WR's. That don't cut it in the modern NFL.
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11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
But the so-called elite #1 outside WR is not commonly found on SB winners in recent history. You're absolutely right that teams who win the big game have talented receiving options, but the obsession with this narrow definition of a certain type of alpha WR with length and deep speed isn't actually supported by the results.
You're arguing against having one because Buffalo doesn't anymore. It's a bunch of WR3-WR5 and an overpaid TE along with a 2nd year guy who averaged 9 ypr.
Going back the last 5 seasons, the 10 SB participants had at least a top-end WR1 or elite flex TE.
Anyone can quibble over what that looks like, but KC, SF, TB, CIN, LAR, PHI all featured someone who demonstrated consistent production which to me is 900+ yards over a season.
Buffalo, to @BADOLBILZ's point has zero players on the roster who've done that in their careers. People can get down on their knees and pronounce any of Shakir, Samuel, or Kincaid primed to do that in this offense, but it's a hope and dream at this point crafted out of wild guesstimates.
Teams with elite offenses have elite pass-catchers. And elite offenses are practically a requirement to advance in the post-season.
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23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Which is what they did in the second half of last season. Which resulted in a much less effective Josh Allen as a passer. But they won more. This is why McDermott is going that route. I think they have come to a bad conclusion and that the REAL reason they won was because they used Allen like Cam Newton in the mid-2010's.
They're caught in this vortex of believing the running game is more central to a successful offense and the passing game should focus on backs and shorter WR/TE routes.
Difference this season is, this OC is aligned to carrying out that scheme and some of that is because the skill personnel offer little flexibility to do anything else. Will be interesting to see what happens when their offensive skilled talent limitations show up what the HC/OC do. Keep running Josh 8-10x/game?
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4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:
So you call out the fewer yards per attempt, and fewer yards per carry. How many more carries did we have than our opponents in that stretch? How many more pass attempts?
More plays = more yards. More yards = more first downs. More first downs = more Touchdowns. You also control the game flow considerably better while maintaining time of posession.
You're on the Bills dormant analytics team, aren't you?
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16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
So you say it never happened, not once.
But it did.
So you’re wrong.
If they have a similar record to the last half of the year will it be infuriating? Or do they have to achieve that only with a style of play you approve?
The offense got worse by becoming slower, less efficient and operated more toward the LOS in the 2nd half of the season. That will show up this year.
If you can't see how that philosophy which they doubled down on this off-season doesn't present a problem, I'm sorry you can't figure it out.
Besides, assuming what worked just enough last year will work this year is absurd. Every opponent on the schedule is preparing for them and knows their personnel limitations. I doubt opposing DC's and HC's are worried about that WR group, which unless you're a blind homer, represents a mediocre group at best.
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11 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I think you kind of left off "having a starting QB with a sprained throwing shoulder that kept getting re-aggravated". Josh commented the last couple games he felt like he was throwing pretty well again. But methinks there's a reason Brady kind of put the passing game on "standby" for the Cowboys and Chargers games.
Issue with Brady is that the offense got a lot more pedestrian last season. It wasn't just that he threw it less than 50% of the time, it's that Josh's yards per attempt went from about 7.2 down to 6.4 from Dorsey to Brady. People can attribute that to Diggs and Davis not performing, but it's at least as much a result of what they wanted the offense to be and how is was called.
And it's not like the running game got more efficient as a result...yards per attempt went from 4.6 under Dorsey to 4.3 with Brady.
Thing is, I don't believe they see this as an issue, but instead as a solution. Keep drives going, minimize risk throwing it shorter and running the ball is how they've built the 2024 offense. Who's dictating that is for another debate, but there's no reason on God's green earth to take Josh and turn him into a game manager while surrounding him with sub-par or so unproven WR/TE talent. And expecting that more balance will yield better results.
The offense is going to resemble more of what it was in the 2nd half of 2023. And it will be infuriating.
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McBeane haven't had a WR group appropriate to this QB since the first year he began playing like a franchise QB in 2020. Every subsequent year he's played at or close to that level they've been middling with their approach to WR's.
After 3 complete seasons and entering a 4th the WR issue has been kicked around here frequently. Answer is they don't believe the position warrants better talent.
And every year they're wrong. Doesn't stop them from thinking some combination of a new OC, Josh playing better with less, a better running game, or WR/TE running shorter, safer patterns will work.
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20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I was pretty down on Coleman as a 1st or 2nd round prospect. I'd been following his game since he hit the transfer portal after 2022. I wanted the Bills to pass altogether on him because they don't/didn't need projects. That said, I know he has a good deal of potential. But I just don't see it being accessible enough early in his career. As Kollman says in this video........they've compiled a room full of slot receivers. A washed up version of MVS coming off a 300 yard season despite the most opportunity he's had in his entire career? That isn't very intriguing either, IMO.
I also don't see the development plan for a guy who enters the league with that skill set. You've compared him to Davante Adams and GB had 2 proven vets ahead of him in his rookie and 2nd seasons allowing him to get up to speed by year 3.
Among Buffalo's WR group they have 1 guy who's ever had consistent production at the NFL level who isn't declining in Samuel...who in the last 4 seasons has ranked on average about 45th in catches and 55th in yards.
Not seeing how they set up Coleman for success. Of course, it would take serious investment at WR and this regime isn't willing to do that. The Bills just seem enamored of their draft assessment on Coleman and expect him to step in and produce. Or, they don't believe they need the production because they'll move the ball in other ways.
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2 hours ago, Simon said:
Those are some negative waves...
"When we go into battle we play music very loud. It kinda...calms us down."
RIP.
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27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Beane seems to be making it pretty clear they're counting on Kincaid for Josh to become Greg Olsen to Cam ("I looked at the rules; it's legal to pass to a TE"). And when the Panthers went to the Superbowl with Newton, Olsen was their leading receiver. Behind him they had a 30-yr old Ted Ginn, 33 yr old Jericho Cotchery, and a rookie Devin Funchess.
That said, I agree with your overall point that the Bills WR room is made up of insufficient WR parts, and not enough investment has been made there
Benjamin got injured in camp that year after going over 1k yards in 2014 as a late 1st. With him healthy, that '15 Panthers team had him and Olsen heading into the season.
Point is, they're not that far off in how they view their receiving talent from ~10 years ago and constantly behind the curve of where the league's heading. And some of that is reacting to what happened the season before. Diggs wasn't physical and didn't get much YAC. Then again, neither did Benjamin and Funchess.
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11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
The Bills seem to be caught in the middle of long term planning and short term planning..........that's why they half-step at WR.
The bottom line is that the #1 priority should always be making your elite QB look as good as possible for as long as possible.
It's the key to sustained organizational success on and off the field.
OBD didn't adjust their roster philosophy/strategy when Josh's extension kicked in for 2022. It was as if they continued what they were doing, only with a huge QB contract on the books. Still using high picks on defense and UFA dollars to maintain their DL depth.
I also see a LOT of people here talk about how drafting RB's is supporting Josh. Their offense didn't get remarkably better with James Cook running for 1k yards and being a 10.1 yards per catch. Even if Cook performs like this and Ray Davis adds to the running game, their passing game is not as good.
Can't get around that they didn't reserve room to improve the passing game, Josh was used to run it more down the stretch, and their receiving talent at best is a notch below last year with Diggs gone.
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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40342965/patrick-mahomes-says-chiefs-push-ball-field-2024
Take it FWIW...off-season puff piece but it's not debatable this is their offense.
If Reid is telling Mahomes to go downfield (and likely has each season) it's noteworthy, because he threw 14 INT's last year which is most he's had in a season. For all the complaints about Allen, he had a lesser talented receiving group and threw 18 INTs.
Yet, McBeane's moves are telegraphing they want a safer offense that doesn't throw it downfield to reduce turnovers. One that is more horizontal and less vertical.
Two teams offensively going in opposite directions. One that goes with what works for both them and in the league and the other playing the contrarian role.
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20 minutes ago, FireChans said:
You’re missing a step.
6. Josh Allen plays at or near the best level of his career in the postseason while the rest of his teammates no show, and we wonder why we can’t beat the Chiefs when we have Trent Sherfield alligator-arming passes.
Yeah. Josh gets blamed. Has to be included there.
He's not perfect and the throw to Shakir was not a good decision in the Divisional Round game.
This off-season has already served to show more fans here that WR is not a priority for McBeane until it's so obvious a need. Should have been in 2021 and 2022, but they found other priorities, primarily defensive or lesser important positions to sign/draft. Then, they missed on WR in 2023 and were forced to take one in 2024.
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I can't think of a subject during the McBeane years which occupied more off-season discussion than what they've done at WR. It's now the 4th straight off-season we're talking about it. It got a lot louder in 2024.
Each of the past 4 off-seasons this sequence occurs:
1. Debate ensues about whether they need better receivers.
2. Bills sign some low-end short-term UFAs WRs and miss on top prospects. McBeane say they're good to go and homers predictably agree.
3. Season gets off to good start in first month.
4. Mid-season swoon begins with offense struggling.
5. People start wondering on TBD why they didn't do more at receiver. Homers retreat to silence.
6. Season ends and process starts anew.
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7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:
How could I not be dead serious? Bringing any amount of kids into the world is already an extremely selfish exercise. When you decide that you aren't satisfied with 1,2 or 3 but need 10+ what does that say about you and what does it say to your other kids?
There's no physical means for you to give them the time they need each day or week. If you have 6 hours a day when you aren't working, they aren't in school, and awake that's ~30m a day per kid if you spend 100% of your free time hanging out with them.There's no possible way to raise that many people at the same time giving each one of them your best effort for setting them up to achieve their maximum potential and be well adjusted.
That isn't even taking into account bringing 10 new human into a world that can't physically support them or ignoring the 3 million kids in foster care/orphanages who need a good home because you want to breed your own designer kids. It's just not well adjusted, sane behavior, regardless of wealth.Go forth and multiply. Obviously bad advice from Him.
Starting to see more of these WR contract extensions be for shorter terms. Not stretched to 5 or 6 years, a couple lately at 3.
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1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:
So that means your opinion doesn't matter too then right?
Just because Allen is our best and important piece doesn't mean he can't be criticized at all. If he misses a wide open WR and throws the balls directly into the hands of a defender....that's his fault. But he does more good than bad by a mile but he isn't perfect or immune to any criticism. I am ignorant because I said Allen has played poor at times. What a weak and lame statement dude lol.
Allen has thrown the most INT's in the last 5 years than any QB. He threw 29 INT's the two years prior when he had more weapons.
But seems like since Allen is overall great, everyone of those INTS and turnovers are everyone else fault.
The offense since Allen has taken over as full time starter has scored the 5th most points. If they didn't have a canceled game, they probably would be 3rd.
Allen has to carry the ball himself? For the last 4 seasons, he had one of the most productive WR's in the game. I think Davante Adams is the only WR with more receptions than Diggs in that stretch.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-points-scored-since-2019-nfl
Your claim as TBD's best sophist is noted.
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40 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
The team went on a 6 game skid of scoring 20 ppg and it was getting worse. That's why Dorsey was fired. It was a complete opposite, night and day after the Dolphins game. There is much more context into that 26.2 ppg game when Dorsey left because it was 3 great games, fell off of a cliff after that with no signs of improvement.
Brady also faced the hardest part of our schedule with KC, Philly and Dallas...scored 28.3 ppg in those games.
Allen has to take on some responsibility for the poor productions as well. This year he missed wide open WR's more than he ever has....especially deep. Something was off with him. He also was more careless with the ball this year and had his highest INT % since his rookie year.
The fanbase was very loud about the coaching staff asking Josh to be more conservative and not run...then we run him and now it's too much.
The fanbase doesn't have any input for coordinating the offense with Josh, so their opinion matters zero.
OTOH, McD's been talking about reducing Josh's carries a couple years now...and then all 3 of his OC's who coached Josh ended up doing the same thing. A team with solid receivers doesn't have to do that to score points with a franchise QB.
Josh Allen is the last guy anyone should be blaming for their poor performance. It's just typical homers who are unable to see the scheme and talent are mis-aligned with his talents. This offense and the entire team are bottom of the NFL-caliber without him.
Besides, the universally regarded best QB in the game threw 14 INT's last year to a depleted receiver group. Think those 2 items aren't related?
I see a couple things happening this year. They'll again try evening out the run-pass balance and it'll lead to less offensive production. Josh will struggle throwing to this bottom-tier group of receivers and they'll be right back to him running it again. The offense will continue to struggle and people will blame Josh. The same people like yourself completely ignorant to the fact personnel decisions made Josh's situation harder but easily blame him.
This offense has now 8 years into this regime no true offensive identity besides Josh needing to elevate the skilled talent and carry the ball himself.
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10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:
We are still going to throw the ball a ton and will be league leaders again.
This will be the first year under Brady's offense with his playbook, his vision, his adjustments etc....
He can't make significant and drastic changes to an offense mid year.
We couldn't score before Brady took over. After the Dolphins game, the next 6 games we averaged 20 ppg....
Josh accounted for 21% of the team's rushing yards under Dorsey. It was 30% under Brady.
Dorsey's offense averaged 26.2 points and Brady was 27.1.
The same personnel group with a healthy OL managed to score 1 point more per game, but it took Josh running it more.
If they're committed to not running Josh as much, it's a big question where they'll replace that production. Because the running game was less efficient last year under Brady even with Josh carrying it more often.
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1 hour ago, FireChans said:
The offense was so talented in 2023 that Allen had to rush 9 times per game for the last 7 games to save the season and get us in the playoffs.
For those keeping score at home, that’s a 153 carry pace on a full season. That would’ve ranked 37th in the NFL last year. Elite RB2 type numbers.
And as much as Shakir and Kincaid “came on” during Brady’s reign, Allen had a putrid completion percentage of 60%, threw 10 TD’s to 7 INT’s, with a passer rating of 85. If this is Josh Allen released with Kincaid and Shakir as the focal points, it sounds like it’s gonna be a disaster lmao.
And they needed Josh's 18 rushing TDs in 19 games, 11 of which came in the 9 games Brady was OC.
Hard to see how the offense can re-invent itself with their current WR/TE group and NOT need Josh to play hero ball this season. Running it with Cook and Davis will not be as big a part of the solution as many assume. Nor will that receiving group which is being asked to significantly up their game at each starting position.
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50 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
Yes and no. Kincaid and Cook are both top 5 in their positions or in Kincaid case projected. Samuel has been a solid pro without elite Qb play. Shakir and Coleman are expected to have big roles. That is the passing game for the most part. They are not paying any other wr.
Say they go Franklin in rd 5? Maybe Shorter develops into a special teamer with X ability. Best case scenario Franklin becomes MVS and Shorter becomes Hollins. For not much they just have those players to play those roles. Got some dart throws with Hamler and Claypool. Both mid 20’s former 2nd rd picks with athletic ability and some production.
With some volatility at the top of the depth chart with Coleman and Shakir having 2 veterans isn't a bad idea. They are being paid like 4th and 5th wrs. Not expected to start but could in a spot. Having them play the roles they have made a career of enhances the room. Got a field stretcher in MVS and a X who will be a captain on teams in Hollins. Somebody beats them out for that spot great but if not they will be fine in those roles. They are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield imo.
Winning the American Legion's cash raffle is not a strategy for paying next month's bills.
And a bunch of slot-only guys and low end types doesn't make a NFL passing offense. Especially not with Josh Allen as your QB.
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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - A Roster for McDermott to Work With
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Comparison really should be 2020 - the team which made the AFC Championship Game.
Still, for those who follow the NFL in general (and clearly not as many on TSW do), the game is evolving rapidly. What worked a few seasons ago isn't necessarily going to work 4-5 years later, but alas...
the 2024 team is not constructed like 2020 nor as talented offensively. Yes, there were some areas that team was not as good, but the end result is what they should be focusing on achieving and exceeding: winning in the post-season.
Buffalo's big issues above the WR fray is staying offensively with or ahead of their primary AFC competition. And, doing so as you note using some youth to keep cap spending down.