Koufax

I would kindly like those six minutes of my life refunded please.

Evidently you didn't watch the pro bowl

I definitely want June and Spikes, because I think TKO could have a big rebound. Having some depth beyond Coy would be good, so Ellison would get bumped to the bench upon June's signing, but it would depend on camp or how Spikes looks before then.

I've been saying it for months. I'll be happy to give a Bills jersey to Leon Hall or Revis or someone else I don't know, but I'm completely fine starting the season with Youboty/McGee/KT. If we can get better in the draft that is great, but if our #1 pick is better used elsewhere these guys can start. I agree that one more free agent is probably all (although I'm still wondering about fullback?), and my top choice right now is June.

We had a first round pick and a third round pick often graded with first round talent not contribute in 2006 but the things that kept them from contributing are behind them, and they should be very valuable acquisitions. So despite a year of experience for each, they get to have anything over zero as an improvement in contribution, and they play positions where we need the help. I don't think another team has a similar situation with a 1st AND a 3rd round pick from last year. We have two rookie safeties who started together and did well all year, but should really benefit from the year of experience in the NFL, in this D, and playing together. This is more standard to year two players, but not too many teams had the side by side situation we did without a veteran crutch, and I think that should mean these guys should grow a lot into year two. And beyond the explanations for just last year's day 1 picks, we also have a younger team than many across the board. So I don't think we are just saying that the Bills young guys will improve and other teams will not, but that the particulars and circumstances would lead to higher expectations for improvement of our young team than many other more veteran teams.

I see what you are saying, but you can get Michael Turner for less than the #1 and #3 of the RFA status. The Chargers would take just the #1, and might take just the #2 or a package. The #1 + #3 are just what a team has to give up to get him without negotiating with the Chargers. The Chargers can still trade him for something less, and when you have LT and know your backup running back is going to walk after next season, getting something for him is probably a good idea. I could see this happening if we push it.

Wow...I know I'm always the eternal optimist, but the pessimists seem to be out of touch with football reality. 1) We are very likely to be worse at #1 CB next year whether it is Youboty or a draft pick. Nate played very well, and will be missed talent wise. However with an extra year for the two rookie safeties, McGee likely to rebound a little or drop to nickel and the possibility of Youboty-Revis both excelling, our secondary could end up being improved as a whole despite the loss of Nate. Have to see if we use the first round pick or not, but I don't think the secondary sky is falling. 2) I personally think that a 2007 LB line of Ellison-Crowell-Spikes is actually better than Crowell-Fletcher-Spikes in 2007. Spikes will have a much better 2007 than 2006, I expect the same from Crowell who missed time with injuries, and I think Ellison has the talent to step in. But we still could sign June, draft Willis, etc. I consider our LBs a small downgrade at worst right now, and very likely to start the season better than last year. 3) D-Line is better. Hargrove all season in the #4, McCargo doesn't become a bust over a broken foot, and there is still solid reason why he was a first round pick. Kyle will be better in year 2, and Larry picked up speed in the second half and will do better playing with a more experienced unit. The ends are the same guys in year two of the D with better tackle play, so should be expected to play at least as well as last year. 4) O-Line is way better. This killed us last year, was better in the second half, but we still only ran one direction. Our upgrades are huge, and this is the most significant improvent on our team. Creating holes on both sides, having power at LG to drive forward in short yardage, and protecting JP and giving Lee an extra second to get open? I can't wait. 5) Receivers are better. Price was underused, as was Roscoe and they will benefit from another year working with the QB and the time the line allows. Lee is going to continue on his way up, but as he draws more attention he will make the others better. 6) Tight ends are same or better. Everett could finally show something. Royal and JP got more comfortable. Still not a strength, but should be alright. Now that Royal doesn't have to stay in and help Pennington all the time he will be a more valuable weapon as the D keys on Evans. 7) JP will be better. We all saw how well he worked last season and progressed. This time last year some people thought Holcomb could be the starter? JP is a solid hardworking QB and his progression continues as well as having better protection, being in year 2 of the system, and getting to know his receivers better. 8) RB will be better. Not sure how yet, so I can take my lumps for people who say it isn't better right now. But I think if A-Train got Willis's carries last year he would have done better than 990. Better line is crucial given how run-left-only we were and how the opposition made that adjustment, but I think we are a good team to plug in a decent back and have him succeed. We didn't give up Willis because we had to (like Nate). We gave up Willis because we thought he was replaceable, and I think the season will show that. So that's before we sign June and have a great draft, but let's leave that stuff out for now. I think this team RIGHT NOW is better than last year without question. We have question marks at RB, CB, LB compared to last year, but we actually have decent players at those positions and will further upgrade all three before the season starts.

KT and June would make a couple nice pre-draft pickups.

This is just a false rumor, but while we are on the subject, a 1st and a 3rd is what it takes to get him without the Chargers' permission. Nobody is going to pay that. They might however rather get a 2nd round pick for him rather than have him sit behind LT for a year and then walk. Seems like a no brainer to me. Having RB depth is definitely important, but when you have LT it is really just injury insurance, and refusing to give up injury insurance for a second round pick doesn't make a lot of sense. So I could see a trade for less than the 1st + 3rd making sense for both sides, but no way does anybody give up a 1st and a 3rd in this RB market for an unproven backup.

Right. And there are lots of ways to do that when you don't say "#1 impact DT/RB/CB/LB" at the end. So we could go Revis, Irons, DT, LB on day one and sign KT and June Or we could go Willis, RB, DT, CB signing a depth KT or another depth CB Or we could go Peterson, CB, DT, CB signing June ...etc. There are lots of ways to upgrade our weakest positions and get strong players added in the draft. Right now I'm officially going to start on the June and KT bandwagon, because that would simplify things down and give us a lot of options for a great draft.

Very happy to have A-Train back. Right now that leaves us at our weak positions with: RB: A-Train-Shaud LB: Ellison-Crowell-Spikes CB: Youboty-McGee-Greer DT: Tripplett-McCargo-Kyle-Hargrove No more glaring holes where we have empty jerseys. I would still like to upgrade all four of these positions, but adding in A-Train gets us in a position where we can pick the best guys through remaining free agents and all 7 rounds of the draft, and not get locked in to having to do XYZ with our #12 pick.

Still nice to know that we could end up with some talent at #12 at RB to go with the DT, CB, LB options already being discussed there. Way too soon to know what we pick and who we pick, but talking about some of the names that might be there at #12 is what this board is all about in March. I don't worry about the "have to" logic at back. And I don't think Willis is enough of a lock to be a star LB and make us so much better than June-Crowell-Spikes that "wasting" a first round pick on Peterson would be a "shame". I also don't think DT is a huge priority for #12 unless the guy available really is the best talent at our pick (is Okoye a better talent and five year projected football player than Willis? Revis? Peterson? Hall?). But a lot can happen between now and draft day, and a lot can happen in the first 11 picks. We should not draft at #12 based on holes...we should address holes to the point where we don't have our hand forced by needs and who is left. I look forward to us deciding 80% talent evaluation of available players and 20% positions that would help us because they are not filled.

Good stuff, but not tied to our reality or what Marv is thinking. No chance at 2 DBs and 2 CBs with the four day 1 picks, but I fully expect one DB and one RB, then most likely a LB and a DT, although trading up could change the dynamics.

After round one would you rather have: RB: Lynch - A-Train LB: Ellison-Crowell-Spikes CB: Youboty-McGee or RB: A-Train - TBD LB: Crowell-Willis-Spikes CB: Youboty-McGee or RB: A-Train - TBD LB: Ellison-Crowell-Spikes CB: Revis-McGee The first option is growing on me, especially with three more day one picks to follow to get LB and CB (and being a big fan that year 2 Youboty has a great chance of being better than a rookie alternative). I think projections of what we can get with our second pick (especially if we use a third to trade up) will influence things...if we see a decent LB or CB available it becomes easier to pick Lynch. If we see a RB we like likely available we can go with Revis or Willis (whoever is higher on our chart).

Agreed. And if Calvin Johnson is there for our second round pick we take him as well. Lynch might drop to 12, but Peterson is not going to be a Bill without trading up. I think the bigger question though is do we think Okoye, Revis, Willis, or Lynch is the best football player? Is Willis better than Lynch? Will Revis be a better player than Okoye? We have different options to improve our weak spots (assuming we re-sign A-Train and have an so-so guy on the depth chart instead of an empty slot). I think Lynch at #12 could work out, but I don't think it is likely. Exciting time leading up to this all though...

I'm not sold on Brown. I like Anthony Thomas and a 2nd rounder, but am open to just about anybody for consideration at this point.

No, but Crowell, Youboty, and Ellison respectively can. RB is the only empty jersey we have right now. I'd rather fill it in round 2 all things being equal, but both Lynch and Peterson will require some heavy consideration for a trade up or if either slides (obviously Peterson not to #12). It is all about what picks add the most value to the team. Revis over Youboty or Willis over Ellison or Okoye over Kyle might not have as big an impact for our total team as Peterson over Shaud Williams. I don't think so, and I don't think we pick either of them, but it is a consideration and valuation that the front office will have to make.

I love the idea of a smart great second round back, and it happens, but here is a quick comparison of backs taken in the first vs. backs taken in the 2nd and 3rd over the last five drafts: 1st (14 picks): Bush, Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Addai, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, McGahee, Larry Johnson, William Green, TJ Ducket 2nd or later (14 of the better ones): Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, LenDale White, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, Chris Brown, DeShaun Foster, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, Ladell Betts, Michael Turner, Marion Barber, Vernand Morency, Maurice Morris Clearly it is better to have a first rounder than a second, but the difference isn't as huge as it might seem, and picking well in the second round can be more valuable than a first rounder. The same comparison at QB or some other positions are not as favorable. So hopefully we can get a good player if we don't pick Peterson or Lynch.

Sure makes for a great first round pick, but not going to happen, and hurts the rest of the draft and doesn't make us the most improved team we can be.

Yeah. I think AT and a 1st or 2nd rounder is probably the way to go. Interesting ESPN article which is somewhat favorable of the Bills approach: http://proxy.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story...&id=2793191

The 3 technique stuff is a little overblown. That was at the start of year 1 camp, but we are going to have a rotation of tackles, and nothing keeps Larry and McCargo from being on the field at the same time. I don't think we go for a high DT, but instead look for a solid replacement for Anderson later who could maybe move ahead of Kyle in the rotation. I still have a lot of expectations for McCargo and Youboty, our two 2003 picks who didn't contribute (sandwiched between our starting safeties in the draft). Judging McCargo on 2006 would have been silly WITHOUT the injury. Giving up or expecting very little from a first rounder at this point without specific reasons seems silly. This guy was taken just three picks lower (#26 instead of #23) than McGahee, so expectation should be similar or Marv really messed up. So I'm going to give Marv the benefit of the doubt and expect some significant contributions this year.

We lost MLB and RB with the clear intentions of being as good or better at those positions. At the moment that is obviously not the case at RB, and probably not with LB (Ellison-Crowell-Spikes), so additions at both places are necessary and will definitely happen. At CB we lost a top money guy who we would have loved to keep if it wasn't top money. At the moment he is replaced by a second year player who was regularly given first round grades before falling to us in the third. Youboty is unlikely to be the player Nate is right away, but we also might upgrade this position further. So we are a little weaker at corner, maybe a little weaker at LB (I don't think so personally), and with temporarily a glaring hole at RB, the single most replaceable position on the field where we are replacing an average performer. This while getting better at safties, QB, WR through experience. The same at DE, better at DT with McCargo back, much better at O-Line, and the same elsewhere, and this with free agent dollars still left and a high draft slot + extra picks draft coming up. Let Michael Smith say what he wants, but after we re-sign A-Train, sign someone like June, and have a good draft this team is going to be so much better than last year. Another quick comment, it has become the conventional wisdom to put Dockery below Steinbach and Dielman (and Hutchinson), but that doesn't mean that that means he will be worse as a player than them. It is quite possible that we will end up with the best of the bunch, and that OBD has a pretty good idea. But ESPN puts out a list of the top free agents in order, and we think that means that is how it will be.

Need to lock up JP, Evans, and Crowell early. That is a very exciting post. So to sum up: we don't lose anybody important next winter (like Nate). All our young players are likely to improve. We don't have that many guys who are at the age where we expect decline, and we will have two more draft classes added along with another round of free agency? And with the raised salary cap we don't have any likely cap casualties either? I'm very excited about 2007 and can't wait for it to start, but it makes it even more exciting to know that we are really laying the groundwork to be better in 2008 and beyond. I think our cycle of frustration is coming quickly to an end, and the next five years should be a fun time to be a Bills fan.

Um, valid point if we were playing this Sunday. I don't think we are planning on or will end up with any lack at running back, and we will have a much much better running game than last year. I do agree that Peerless will have a great year, and has been undervalued in our general talk. Part of that is on JP's shoulders and as a young QB he trusted Lee the most and I think did not have enough of a relationship built with Price. I think that year two of playing together could change that significantly, as well as the whole league keying on Lee (remember last off season with all the worry about Lee as #1 and how he would do without Moulds?).

I don't think so. I don't think that Marv would want to go long term extension with low character...there is a difference between keeping guys around who were already there and signing extensions to people you don't like (Marv doesn't like Willis, even if he refuses to say it). And I think that the extension that Willis signed with Baltimore is a dumb one that overpays. More similar to the Edge contract than anything, and overpaying replaceable backs who are getting older (not that Willis is old, although I doubt his ribs or knee every feel truly young) is not a wise decision. I did want to keep Willis and I do think he will be successful over the next couple years, and possibly even great if circumstances align right. But I'm fine with this move as a way to improve our team