Koufax

This team was better than expected and not as good as we hoped. We had four losses we can live with, but KC, HOU, and OAK are hard to stomach. But similarly, CHI, DET, and MIN were all games we could have very easily lost. I think this is and has been an 8-8 team from the start. Every 8-8 team should find a way to get to 10-6, but we were not a 10-6 team. This is not a terrible thing. We haven't been an 8-8 team in a while (quality of team, not results), and that is a positive, but we aren't going to be much better than that without solving the QB situation. Maybe next year's team is a 9-7 team and manages to overachieve and win 10 or 11 on the field with Orton year #2. We clearly don't go to EJ unless he has shown he is the better QB, and I think what the team sees every week in practice is probably a much greater indicator of things than our hopes and projections. If they think it is close, I wouldn't mind EJ getting a chance to play on Sunday, but not because "who cares, and let's see what we got", but because I think it is plausible that he gives us the best chance to win if he has been improving from the #2 spot. Next year is EJ and Kyle without our first rounder to step in. It isn't a draft where there is likely to be a great QB ready to step in from the second or third round, so while we can draft a project, being without a first, we probably need to concentrate elsewhere, and try to get as much out of Orton/EJ next year as we can, and evaluate the position more deeply after the 2015 season. Cutler is better than Orton, and there might be a few others out there who are better as well, so I'm open to improving the roster at that position if an opportunity presents itself. But we aren't going to find an amazing option out there that falls in our laps, we aren't going to draft an amazing QB this year. So doing our best to get better at every single position through roster improvements, coaching improvements, and hard work, and hoping that KO/EJ 2015 can be at least a little better than KO/EJ 2014 is the path we are on.

Forget all that stuff, and we can worry about the Bills in week 17. What really matters THIS weekend is that the Browns beat the Panthers and the Falcons beat the Saints. With those two outcomes, we keep alive a very good chance that a six win team makes the playoffs. Six wins! That's the kind of stuff that keeps 7-9 Dick Jauron up at night!

No. I think you put him on the 53 roster immediately, and then decide during the week and on Sunday if he is active or not for the game. I want him active even if he only plays a few snaps, so that New England isn't the first time he sees the field.

Not this weekend we aren't. We are going to try to beat the Raiders first. After that we will have as many as four straight need to win games on the road against very good teams before the Super Bowl. If we come up short to the Patriots or in the wild card game or the divisional playoffs or the AFC championship I will be disappointed after that happens, but beating the Raiders is all that stands between us and effectively starting the playoffs a week early and not playing any meaningless football all season. We know Belichick doesn't rest his starters, etc. We also know that the game could very well matter enormously to them and decide the location of the AFC championship game. So we know that we won't have an easy time of it. But after limiting Manning and Rodgers, I'm pretty sure this defense is ready to take on Brady and if a couple plays go our way on special teams and offense there isn't any reason an upset can't happen like when the 16-0 Pats played the 9-7 Giants. I don't think Kyle Orton wins a Super Bowl this year, and I think beating the Patriots in week 17 is a tough thing, just like beating Andrew Luck in the Wild Card game the following week would be, or the Patriots or Broncos in the divisional playoffs the week after that. But getting a chance to play one or more of those games and see what happens is awesome.

Nope, if the Chiefs, Chargers, and Ravens win Sunday, we are still alive (try it in the playoff machine): If we win out, and week 17 Browns beat Ravens there are a lot of scenarios where we are in. There are plenty of scenarios and they start to get confusing, but in almost all of them, the Bills beat the Raiders. There are very few absolutes after that because there are still tons of combinations and tons of head to heads. The head to heads really work in our favor, because regardless of which way most of them go, either outcome tends to open another door elsewhere. The one game we have a clear rooting interest in no matter what is the Niners beating the Chargers. If the Chargers win we have no 9-7 scenario at all (and have some of our 10-6 options blocked too). Other than that one, I'm going to save most of my rooting energy for week 17, even though there are a bunch of games we *probably* prefer to go one way or the other.

There are not any individual games that we need one outcome in. There are lots of ways for us to get in at 10-6. Also there are still some paths in at 9-7, but only if a lot goes our way. If we lose to the Raiders, we are eliminated unless Cleveland beats the Panthers, Denver beats Bengals, Chiefs beat Steelers, Niners beat Chargers (all things we want to root for anyway) But if we can't beat the 2-12 Raiders when it counts, we don't deserve to even talk about playoffs. I have a feeling we will do fine next week and get to talk about this up until the final minutes of the season.

While I am very hopeful we go 14-6 winning our next six games, to be in the hunt after dropping the Chiefs and Dolphins games in a span of five days, and to go after our ninth win in Oakland with our hopes very much alive is not a failure.

We are alive for another week, and very likely to be alive in week 17. We still have one path to a 9-7 playoff spot (without ties and weird stuff), but it isn't likely at all. Even at 10-6 we need help. But enjoy this big win, and get ready to beat Oakland next week.

Glad you are looking past one of the most important and exciting Bills games in many years. You do know that they are 4-4 on the road, they have a weak run defense, and our defense is actually really good? It will be a very tough game for us, but as definitely not to be looked past. Oh well, I will still humor your original post. The reason you don't start Tuel is that he is not as good as EJ and Orton. If we are eliminated from the playoff chase, which could happen Sunday, but is unlikely (because even with a loss we still could have some 9-7 hypotheticals, and you don't quit when you are alive), we can play our final two games focused on developing and evaluating. I still think getting our 8th win is really important, and trying for our 9th after that is really important. Tuel can get some late game playing time, but has no reason to start. EJ is the wild card. I think this game is crucial for Orton. If he loses it AND struggles, I think there is a strong case that EJ is just as good to help us win the next game, and it also gives the front office a chance to see if EJ has improved on decision making and accuracy during his benching. They probably have a really good idea from practice reps on his progress, and if Tuel has come close to either of the other two. And then you mentioned the draft ladder. You know we don't have a first round pick next year, and moving from #48 to #46 isn't really worth sandbagging and not doing everything you can to avoid another losing season right?

No you don't punt in that situation, like you don't punt a minute later even in 4th and 16. We ran out of time to rally and win the game on Sunday, and one big reason is that we punted on that play and didn't go for it, preserving time on the clock and time outs (even though our D got us the ball back pretty quickly). Horrible choice at the time, and the same in retrospect. Even trusting your D to stop Peyton, there just isn't enough time to play with, and if you can't get two yards when you need to, you probably aren't going to get 21 points to tie the game. So if you want to win the game, you go for it there. Different situation, but similar to the Pats going against Peyton's Indy and coming up short. I still completely agreed with that call much as I disagree with this one.

No you don't punt in that situation, like you don't punt a minute later even in 4th and 16. We ran out of time to rally and win the game on Sunday, and one big reason is that we punted on that play and didn't go for it, preserving time on the clock and time outs (even though our D got us the ball back pretty quickly). Horrible choice at the time, and the same in retrospect. Even trusting your D to stop Peyton, there just isn't enough time to play with, and if you can't get two yards when you need to, you probably aren't going to get 21 points to tie the game. So if you want to win the game, you go for it there. Different situation, but similar to the Pats going against Peyton's Indy and coming up short. I still completely agreed with that call.

I'm very sorry that Norwood and the drought have impacted your judgment, or maybe if you are just trolling, but the Bills are far from eliminated. Just like 31 other teams they are almost certainly not winning the Super Bowl this year, and like 19 others, they are very likely to come up short of the playoffs when all is said and done. But what is not up for discussion is right now they are *playing* for the playoffs, and winning three games has a really good chance of getting them there. So a team who doesn't play the first of those three games like they expect to win them would be pathetic. Playing meaningful week 17 football would already be a big positive step forward as well, as this team continues to try to change culture and history and just play good football. Regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, that is part of the foundation of 2015. And lastly, I don't think this team is a lot worse than the 9-7 Giants who ended up getting hot and upending the 16-0 Patriots. I'm not expecting that to happen, but I sure am expecting this team to do everything in its power to win the next game and feel like they are playing for something meaningful while trying to do that.

Has EJ learned decision making and accuracy since he was benched? Because while I hope he has been progressing, unless both of those things are different then they were in week 4, Orton gives us the best chance to beat the Packers, and that should be our only goal. If EJ can play better, I'm fine with a move at any point, but we have no reason to think he has made enough adjustments for that to be true, and week 15 isn't a time to be messing around. By the way, Luck lost by 7 in Denver, the Chiefs lost by 7 in Denver, the 10 win Cardinals lost by 21, San Fran by 25, the Chargers by 14, and the Fish by 3. Some pretty good teams have fallen along the way to the Bronco's 7-0 record at home. Orton isn't the answer, and the defense did most of the work, but right now I don't think EJ is a better chance to beat the Packers, and we aren't playing for 2015 quite yet.

I hated that play watching it live, and for what it represents in effort, but watching the replays, I don't think he gets it. Also on the phantom sacks again a reaction I hated, but not sure if there was a better play to be made. The think that bothered me most today and still does in hindsight was not going for it on 4th and 2, and taking time between plays 5-9 minutes out. Coming back from down three scores doesn't require ordinary pace and taking of chances, it requires a little more. We saw on 4th and 16 the steps you do to try to win a game, and that should have happened on an easier situation one possession earlier.

It is very unlikely we make the playoffs and that has been the case since we dropped two games in five days to the Chiefs and Fish. But we are heading into the final three weeks of the season, still very much alive with multiple realistic scenarios. And we actually have a number of scenarios where we make it at 9-7, and it is actually impossible for that to be eliminated next week, so we will hit week 16 no matter what with our playoff hopes alive even if we lose to Green Bay. The reason for that is there is a reasonable chance all of the AFC North except Cin finishes 9-7 (or at least that the possibility of that is in place heading in to week 17) and if that happens Cleveland eliminates Baltimore and Pittsburgh first on conference record and then we beat Cleveland on head to head. The biggest game seems to be having the Browns beat the Bengals next week, otherwise all of our 9-7 scenarios disappear (unless the Raiders could win in KC, which we can certainly root for), and many of our 10-6 do as well. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine Anyway, still alive, and getting ready to play at home against the Packers with them having a short week. Not an easy game, but I think the most winnable of our three HOF QB matchups in December.

Two somewhat sarcastic points: We cannot make the playoffs without an 8th win (since we are not in the NFC South). We cannot beat anybody but the Broncos this week. There are plausible but unlikely 9-7 scenarios, plenty of 10-6 scenarios, so we can lose any game and still be completely alive, but getting our 8th win on Sunday is definitely our best chance. Warm and sunny and no rain or snow on Sunday doesn't play well to limiting Peyton, but I like our chances to keep it closer than people expect, and have a chance to win based on how we do on a couple key plays. Definite underdog, but one that has a chance.

There are a bunch of ways that don't involve the Raiders winning in Lambeau or other impossible things, but the Dolphin win last night cut off a fair amount of them. But some pretty simple and likely outcomes plus Jets over Dolphins, Browns over Ravens week 17 have us in at 9-7. I don't expect it to happen, but if were to hit the final week at 8-7 it is fairly likely we won't officially be eliminated going in to the final 60 minutes. But one certainty is that seven wins will not be enough, and the road to 10-6 or 9-7 goes through an eighth victory. Right now we just have to find a way to win #8 and let a few other chips fall into place with some help pretty likely this week.

I hated the call, and I hated it more because my fantasy football team missed the playoffs over the Bills D losing those points, but the more I have seen and heard, the more I think it is unfortunately the correct call. He really wanted to tuck, and pull the ball down, no question about it, and he continued in that motion after he had lost the ball, making it feel more like a fumble. BUT the ball is still going forward when Kyle gets there and hits it, and the tucking motion is after the ball has already been impacted and he has lost control of it. Kyle was just a tenth of a second too quick and awesome for this one to break in our favor, but at least we got the game.

We look good still at 10-6, but this game really hurt our chances of getting a 9-7 gift. But it is surprising that there are a lot of scenarios that we still get in at 9-7, even though we now need the Dolphins to lose their last twoat home and finish 8-8, or have another couple games go our way to shift the tie breaker. All that matters now is finding our 8th win in the next two weeks, and preferably this Sunday with the upset.

We have thrown away several games we really needed, and it is unlikely that we can overcome that. But what matters is that we are 6-5, and 10-6 very likely gets us into the playoffs, and there are actually some reasonable scenarios where we get in at 9-7. All that matters now is getting to 7-5 and letting some of the other things play out. There are a lot of head to heads ahead of us, and it doesn't take one or two specific scenarios to get us in. Keep the hunt alive one week at a time.

The real question is if we had picked Brady in the 5th round AND Drew Brees instead of Nate Clements, who would we be starting? I was not a big fan of the Watkins trade, because I didn't think he was enough better than the alternatives to give up a future #1 pick, and the undervaluing of future picks I think hurts franchises in the long term, but I am a *huge* fan of the player. I know he will never be a David Tyree...oh wait, a great catch doesn't make you the better player... Evans wasn't available, and I don't think Beckham has reason to be considered better than Watkins, even with future revisionist hindsight. Whatever we eventually gave up with the 2015 #16 or so pick will decide the difference, but Watkins will be a great player.

Wait, the weather caused us to lose to the Chiefs and Dolphins?

But we "needed" a tall wide receiver... But we needed a NT for the 3-4... When you draft for need, you decrease the talent on your roster over the following five years, and that player rarely can fill the perceived need immediately before that need has shifted to something else. We were all scratching our heads on the Troupe pick, but the two big ones I think we can all agree on and just about the whole TBD was in on was Ngata over Whitner and Orakpo over Maybin. Other than those two I think we have more "hindsight taking Brady in the 5th", even if there were some definite head scratchers...

I don't know, but if we beat the Dolphins 29-0 and they beat the Chargers 37-0, that means if we ever played the Chargers, we would win either 66-0 or 1073-0 (I always forget if you add or multiply)...oh wait... And the Chargers were coming off a bye. That was the most shocking result of yesterday. The threads said to root for the fish yesterday, but I think they are more of a threat than the Chargers. I know we already beat them and if we beat them in Miami they shouldn't be a factor, but there are some paths to 10-6 that feature a loss in Miami, and in most of those there is a risk of finishing tied and losing a secondary tie breaker to them which would be heart breaking.

If you are plugging "holes" at #9, and in doing so taking inferior players to those available at other positions, then your draft strategy is on trial. If on the other hand you think that a top OL or top LB is the best player available at the pick, then go ahead and take him without worrying about the holes to plug. When you draft for perceived need, you over-estimate the ability of a rookie to contribute in year 1, and you guarantee that you are adding less total talent to your roster over the four or five year rookie contract. In Watkins' case, I think the trade is exciting and reasonable. We clearly got a better player this season than would have been available at #9, and the extra pick we gave up to move up is dropping in value from the "Hey, we could have drafted a Maybin with that pick!" to the "Hey we could have drafted a McCargo with that pick!" (I am jokingly cherry picking). What cannot be doubted is that we got more 2014 value than without the trade. The only question is if the value of the unknown 2015 pick we gave up proves too costly over the next few years compared to the difference between Watkins and who we reasonably would have considered at #9.