Reed83HOF

😗

The drink depends on who we pick....

I almost always agree with you, this year I have a different lens on and perhaps it is not the best approach. The first round RBs I would stay away from are the top of 1st guys, great players, but if you are drafting up there, other more pressing needs should be addressed first. Late RD 1 with our roster, make me want to gamble a bit more for the reasons below. What gets me more wins this year? Will CB2 be more of an upgrade this year vs what we already have there? Was Taron Johnson the reason we lost to KC? Would edge have moved the needle enough? We simply were unable to score and we had instances in the season, especially in the 3rd qtrs where our offense stalled. Defenses made an adjustment and we weren't able to counter, when we had to rely on our running game, it wasn't there, we were terrible on screen passes, to close out games we had to pass, our WRs were injured and dinged up because we passed a lot, even when the game was in hand because we couldn't run. How many 3rd and longs did we have miracle plays to keep the drives alive (happened twice against Indy), etc. You could say explosive WR could help, which wr do u take off the field (diggs, Beasley, sanders or davis)? RB could fill a lot of these gaps and help our offense sustain closer to the rate it was last year and provide a different element to force defensive adjustments. Singletary isn't it, I'm not high on moss or Breida either to be that missing piece. Teams with franchise QBs operate on 4 to 5 year windows, let me burn a late 1 this year, in a light class, on an RB who can give me production during this window that will eliminate some of the issues above. I just feel that solves more problems for us instead of trying to find a Tre clone that doesn't help us when the offense stalls and our WRs are taken away.

I saw that too and I hope it is a disgusting value for them if true

Good players get a lot of touches is all I am saying. There have been more RB flameouts with lesser workloads vs ones with greater workloads. Nothing more, nothing less. I have not said anything about a second contract, give me 5 great years and I'm done with you, especially if you are close to the 1800 carry mark. Is this what I exactly want out of a late first/ early second round pick - not next year in a deep draft, but this year in a light class and where our team is right now? I may very easily take this swing. I have said in other threads I wanted Edge, boom or bust prospect at pick 30. I am not certain we would dip our toe into the next tier of CB at this pick and I do see OL as being a very viable and likely pick. If we are chasing Mahomes, with a 3.6% sack percentage and a player who thrives even more out of the pocket than in, I am not sure that Edge makes that big of a difference - 3.6 sacks on 100 dropbacks I'm not sure how much that moves the needle if we can't score and keep the chains moving when the passing game is taken away.

You could almost say that about any player in any position... https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear the top backs in the NFL are guys who came from heavy carry loads due to how good they were early on in their college careers. David Johnson - 866 Kareem Hunt - 782 Ezekiel Elliott - 592 Todd Gurley - 510 Saquon Barkley - 671 Le'Veon Bell - 671 Melvin Gordon - 631 Nick Chubb - 758 Alex Collins - 665 James Connor - 668 Jay Ajayi - 678 Christian McCaffrey - 632 Dalvin Cook - 687 Aaron Jones - 658 Jordan Howard - 647 Kerryon Johnson - 519 Leonard Fournette - 616 Marlon Mack - 586 Derrick Henry - 602 Phillip Lindsay - 765 Honestly, from that list, which is basically most of the top rushers in the NFL, the only ones who you could hang your hat on with mileage being a concern are Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook, but Fournette's chronic injures problems were well documented before he was drafted, and Cook's injury was a random ACL injury. As for the rest, usage is a good indicator of future success, not future injury. In the under 300 club, Alvin Kamara (210), Chris Carson (213), Damien Williams (290), Peyton Barber (248) Kenyan Drake (233), and Nyheim Hines (258) are the ones who lead the way, but as you can see, those who had under 300 carries in college are far outnumbered by those who had over 500 carries when it comes to significant roles in the NFL.

The OL was not great I will give you that, but the talent (athleticism & skill) at the RB position is still not good enough

For those wondering Zack Moss & Singeltary:

He is a better RB that the guys we have now. I am a fan of RAS and he can get going in a hurry, we are talking possibly the fastest acceleration in this entire class. He is patient when he runs and waits for his blocks to set up (Our RBs were not good at that this last season)coupled with his ability to hit top speed almost instantaneously, helps him hit the holes and blast through them. IIRC, I read somewhere as a high school SR he ran a 4.43. While I do love a good 40 time, I'm not looking at him winning in track meet as an RB (I want both acceleration and top end speed in a WR). His ability to read blocks, be patient and fly through the hole, while being tough to bring down below the waste is what I want. I also want a RB who is great in the screen game and can cause the underneath LBs nightmares, both of which he is excellent with. Also he has worked hard to improve his game from High School to where he is today: “Those are two areas (pass catching and pass protection) that he really had to work on after his freshman year,” said USF coach Jeff Scott, Clemson’s co-offensive coordinator for Etienne’s first three seasons with the Tigers. “And he really bought into it and put in the work and was very intentional in that improvement in both those areas.” “Coming here in high school from a (veer offense), I probably had 16 targets my whole career in high school,” said Etienne, whose hometown of Jennings (population 11,400) is nestled in the rural elbow of Louisiana. “I have to give a lot of credit to (Clemson receiver and classmate) Amari Rodgers. He really challenged me to get on the jugs after every practice for 30-45 minutes. And we would practice catching tennis balls, too, every day after practice. During the pandemic, I got with (quarterback) Trevor Lawrence out here and caught a lot of balls.” He also evolved into a serviceable blocker, another skill he simply didn’t require while running for roughly 4,500 yards his final two years at Jennings. Today, NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein’s report on Etienne includes this line: Loves to clean up A-gap blitzers with booming angle block. “Obviously protecting Tom Brady is a pretty big draw, but he had probably the next-toughest thing in college, protecting Trevor Lawrence,” Scott said. “So it’s not the first time that he’s done something like that. “He has really good football instincts and football IQ, so I think that he’s been very well trained at Clemson with the cross-reads and all the different things that the backs have to do in pass protection.” For the CEH & Swift guys out there

^10000% Too many people just see RB and say we don't need to run more (maybe scars from years past with no QB), but he is another basically WR who plays RB and is a darn good runner as well. There is taking taking the RB off the field to go 5 wide or they could show 5 wide and he motions back to RB. The scheme versatility as well as his play-making ability open the offense up more than any other offensive position... How would the pass rush work out with a fully healthy KC OL and Mahomes? We didn't have enough on offense to knock them out of mugging our WRs, we have zero counter punch to force them to play our offense differently. Also, the SB refs actually called flags on KC's secondary...

I expect we will have to move a little to get him. I am more comfortable expecting the pick to be RB or Edge. I do think Beane would like to hold on to his 3rd, he wants his top 3 picks if possible in a very lite draft class

The number of touches a game from a running perspective might not change a whole lot, unless we get up enough in points and are efficient enough running to grind the clock down and win. Where is see ETN being better than Harris and others is the passing game, the ability to throw to the RB underneath and have them actually catch a ball and be somewhat dangerous is what is a big missing piece.how many x and long plays were we in last year that required heroics to get out off? That is something that is not sustainable and without some of them, we would not have necessarily made the AFCCG. It forces the defense to change their game plan, KC took our WRs out of the game and on offense we had zero answers. I don't see another WR position necessarily helping that. A better RB fills this need.

I don't disagree with any of this. You did a great job laying your thoughts out. The Warren Sharp article that was out last week or so about 1st rd RBs resonated a lot with me and the value is certainly hard to justify. To be upfront, I really want to address Edge and that looks to be boom or bust at 30, which is fine for where this pick is in such a light draft. I was listening to Howard and Jeremy on the way to work this am, and Jeremy brought up an interesting stat, Mahomes sack rate is 3.6%. Teams get rid of the ball so fast, are we now overvaluing edge in relation to what is traditionally was? It makes me feel like Oweh is who we should be targeting, elite athleticism and if the qb escapes he has the right traits to stop on a dime and circle back around to him to keep the pressure up. I'm not sure I love the CB value at 30 and I do feel like we need that other offensive weapon, another WR will only take a Diggs, Sanders, Beasley and Davis either off the field or takes a rb out for a 5 wide set. TE isn't an option at 30 and that leaves an RB who is a threat to run and and threat to catch. At this spot you at least have the pick of the litter. I know Sanders is only a 1 year deal, so it makes a little sense from a long term perspective. OL is also nice spot to pick from...

30th pick is basically a second rounder. The caliber of player you get here is a boom or bust guy (expected edge players at this pick) or you are into the 2nd tier guys (CBs) with some warts. I'm ok with an RB here in relation to our draft position and in relation to our roster. A small trade up wouldn't hurt that much either. Now if we didn't have a deep roster, I would be a bit more hesitant.

So they will take the rb then? 🤣

Nope and the board would melt down saying he isn't a team player and should be traded. Edge guys aren't needed when the qb gets rid of the ball in under 2 seconds etc...

Tough numbers

It's a possibility, but to go up to 22 or 23 and then hope your guys falls, still a lot of picks have to happen for that to work.

Nice post TB had a nice game plan against them, but KCs OL was missing its 2 starting OTs and their interior was banged up as well. KCs DBs were allowed to hold and mug us in the AFCCG whereas in the SB it was called. That was the biggest impact on our offense and we did not have a running game or a reliable RB underneath the pull the Chiefs out of their defensive strategy...

Fire up the Taurus

McShay is the worst ever btw

I'm certain they know who they are taking and they did as soon as they made the trade. You don't give up all they did if they were not sure between 1 or 2 players. They know who is going 1 and 2 and their guy will be there at 3