JDG

Yes, the tiebreaker is the opponents winning percentage - or in other words: (opponents total wins) / (opponents total games.) Since everyone's (opponents total games) is 256, you can simplify the tiebreaker to "opponents total wins." Anyhow, the point of my post is that Buffalo doesn't exactly have much of lead in the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker - contrary to what some people were projecting last week. Moreover, due to a couple of factors, such as New England playing two division games down the stretch, the Bills' opponents have a few more "locked in" wins coming up in the next two weeks than our competitors. So, while its probably not impossible for us to end up with a Top 5 pick - given all the things that can happen down the stretch, I think a #7-9 pick is more realistic. JDG

Lots of people are convinced that the Bills are going to have a very high draft pick. Unfortunately, I don't think that is necessarily the case. Accounting of all 16 opponents on the schedule, the current draft standings are like this: 1/2: Houston and San Francisco (in some order) 3: NY Jets 4: New Orleans If Baltimore wins tonight, Green Bay is #5. If the Packers win, they are #11. Here are the tiebreakers for the 4-loss teams: Tennessee - 113 Detroit - 113 Arizona - 113 Buffalo - 113 NY Jets - 116 Baltimore - 118 So, looking at these numbers, it seems safe to pencil us in for about #7-9 pick. JDG

Maybe it shows that continuity is important - and that simply ripping out players with lots of flashy personnel moves year after year is not a recipe for success? JDG

Which again points out the ludicrousness of the term "#1 WR" - a position which simply doesn't exist for most teams in the NFL. JDG

Totally not true. The replay booth has been notoriously slow in sending plays down for review. Also, Kansas City did the exact same thing in their game earlier that day (albeit on a play that was not ultimately overturned - but KC did get their timeout back thanks to the replay review.) JDG

And since 2002 the Bengals have spent four 1st-day draft picks on: a) skill position players QB-RB-WR b) Offensive linemen ? JDG

Actually, the thought of the media raising the possibility of firing Shanahan for another playoff loss to Peyton Manning and the Colts on the road in Indianapolis is as great an indictment for media stupidity as any. JDG

Over the last few months, some fans on TBD have been pretty vocal in their contempt for Eric Moulds - and have seemed all too eager and gleeful about the prospects of cutting Eric Moulds in the offseason. 9 catches for 110 yards later, I guess that Moulds showed that he can still play this game. And I'd also point out that Moulds is three years younger than Rod Smith - who can apparently still play a pretty good game himself. JDG

I loved the fact that one of his primary qualifications for Haslett was the fact that he won a playoff game in the first year of his five-year stint in New Orleans. So much for getting better! JDG

With all due respect Nick, I disagree.... 1) I don't think that you can say that we need a new GM, but that the new GM should retain Mularkey. The GM needs to have total control to build the team - we can't saddle him with retaining Donahoe's guy. It would only make the new GM even more impossible to judge 3-5 years from now. If you we retain Mularkey, then we have to retain the whole regime - or else only make cosmetic changes. 2) I think that Mularkey is failing the basic competency test. In just two short years - neither year as talent-deprived as the "cap-hell" 3-13 year - Mularkey has managed to wrack up two of the most bitter and excruciating losses in Buffalo Bills history. Losing to the third-stringers of Pittsburgh, at *home*, with the playoffs on the line is unconscionable. Blowing 21-0 against Miami is unconscionable. I simply feel that if Mularkey ever somehow manages to slip into the playoffs, that we will be a leg-down in the coaching department against whomever we would face - I just don't see the basic competency as being there. JDG

Actually, Herman Edwards may be perhaps the only man in the League who understands gameday decision-making. The problem is, his gameday decision-making flies in the face of the media-generated CW and so he gets ripped for it - but Edwards really, truly knows what he is doing. Let me give one example: Herm Edwards instructs his QB's that in most situations, and particularly in the 2nd Half, if the playclock is winding down they should simply take the 5-yard penalty and save the invaluable timeout for the final 2 minutes when it is crucial. That is the kind of understanding of football decision-making the eludes about 99% of the people in the NFL. And that is only one example. JDG

There's a typo in the above.... you put "worst" where you should have put "best." JDG

One thing about the Bills under the Donahoe era is that there has been very little stability in the roster. Indeed, although the Bills last beat the Patriots in Foxboro five years ago - only one player remains from that team, Eric Moulds. Eric Moulds has clearly shown himself to be one of this team's veteran leaders, and is well-respected by his teammates. This year, a bunch of bean counters have looked at Moulds' cap figure and the decline in his statistical performance, and have argued that Moulds absolutely needs to be jettisoned. Given the way Mularkey decided to make an example of Eric Moulds for some ill-tempered sideline comments, suggests that the Bills Leaderhip also views Moulds' veteran leadership as being eminently expendable. I thought it would be interesting, however, to compare the Moulds situation to the way another team is handling a veteran of similar age who arguably has a cap figure in excess of his statiscal performance for the past year - a statistical performance that arguably suffered due to incompetance at the QB position. Oh, and I might point out, that this is also from a team that is substantially *over* the 2006 salary cap at this time, rather than being substantially *under* the cap like the Buffalo Bills. Here's an interesting quote from an article on the Jets. In addition to Herman Edwards' comments, I think that it is interesting to note that the Jets have created the environment where Curtis Martin would say the sorts of things he says here..... Maybe this is one of the reasons why the Jets have 1 division title, 3 playoff appearances, and 2 playoff wins in the last four years (in the same division with the Patriots), while the Bills have four years of futility? JDG

Part of the answer is that football is a zero sum game. You cannot get better off in football without making somebody off worse off. This is a key factor in what SDS pointed out - building a winning football team is hard. Unfortunately, the culture of our media obscures this often enough. For example, the media often acts like every team should be successful every year. Or also consider the way Championships are reported. When New England went to the Super Bowl in the 2001 season, it was "their 1st Super Bowl since 1996", not "their second Super Bowl in just six years." Or consider the way playoff berths are treated - as almost a baseline for being acceptable.... not as being a sign of achievement. And heck, the media often wants to run Mike Shanahan out of Denver because he only "makes the playoffs" almost every year, but hasn't won a playoff game in a few years - when the truth of the matter is that there are only 12 playoff berths handed out each year among 32 teams.... or to only 37.5% of the League in a given year. And of course, there is only one Super Bowl Champion - which means that in a League of perfect parity, you should expect at best one Championship every 32 years..... who has the patience for that? Of course the NFL does not have parity. Consider, for example, Peyton Manning. I've been saying for years that Peyton Manning is going to retire as the greatest QB in NFL History. These last two years, he's been playing like it - he's already broken Dan Marino's TD record last year, and this year led the first team to clinch the #1 spot while undefeated since 1972. So long as Manning as playing at that level - on par with the greatest in NFL history - that means the every other NFL Team (o.k. with maybe the possible arguable exception of Brady) is starting up a leg-down at the QB position in competing with the Colts for the NFL title for the next few years, until Manning begins to lose a step. That's just the way it is, and there's nothing that Tom Donahoe, Ron Wolf, or Theo Epstein can do about it to match the Colts in talent at the QB position - the game's most critical position. I think that Donahoe's personnel moves have generally been o.k. Unfortunately, he had his first building project Bledsoe-Henry-Moulds-Reed-Campbell fail, so he blew it up and started over again - which unfortunately has put us behind the 8-ball, having built two separate offensive cores in the span of just five years. (Building two separate offensive cores in just five years is impressive, but its no surprise that our defense and offensive line have suffered while doing so.) I give him credit for recognizing mistakes and moving on. The jury is still out on Losman-McGahee-(Moulds?)- Evans-Parrish-Everett, but we shall see. His biggest failing has been at the HC position, where Gregg Williams apparently suffered through extensive interference (would love to read his memoirs someday), and where Mularkey simply appears to not "have it" in the leadership department. Its hard to give a guy a third chance at hiring a Head Coach, so Donahoe probably has to go, but I do have perspective on the whole situation, and recognize that there is every possibility that our next GM, who will surely have fewer credentials than Donahoe, could do worse. JDG

Not that that would be such a bad thing....

No, this is not permitted. It would also brand Ralph Wilson as the Scrooge of the century. JDG

I loved the Wade Phillips teams too, but Wade basically fired himself by standing by Ronnie Jones - which might have been forgiveable, but then also by the infamous "we're basically out of it" quote. The #1 job duty of a HC is leadership, and saying "we're basically out of it" with a playoff birth on the line was an unforgiveable failure of leadership. JDG

You didn't mention that in your original post, as near as I can tell (its super-long, but I haven't seen it in two reads of it.) JDG

Because of course Buffalo won't be needing any safeties, receivers, linebackers, corners, or tight ends....... JDG

Uhhh.... no, he was not. He was viewed as a fast-riser with all of the athletic tools.... There was a QB, however, who was viewed as a can't-miss pick in that draft, and as it was, he was taken ahead of Ryan Leaf. I heard he turned out pretty good, BTW.... JDG

Ugh. 1) This reminds me of the "we should trade whatever it takes to land Peter Warrick - he's the closest thing to a can't miss that I've ever seen, and he's so exciting he will put fans in the seats" threads of a few years back. 2) Before projecting a trade up to the #1 overall pick with a measely 2nd and 3rd rounder, how about looking at what ammunication it took to make similar trades in the past. You can start with the Eli Manning trade. 3) Before projecting Willis McGahee for a 1st-rounder, how about looking at what similar trades have produced in the past. You can start with the Marshall Faulk trade. 4) The Bills cut Drew Bledsoe, and so will not receive any compensatory picks for him. And as a final rule to the 10,000 other posters who want to post trade ideas.... always start with this rule of thumb - if you were a fan of the other team in the party to the trade you are proposing, would you be happy with the deal? If your answer is "no", then please fuhgeddaboutit. JDG

At this point, I think that 98% of NFL fan wants their team to trade down..... unfortunately for the Bills, with Bush and Leinart off the board when we pick, I don't see many teams wanting to trade up. JDG

A couple of thoughts: 1) Name a coach without a "pro-nonsense" attitude? 2) I think the biggest mistake you can make when hiring a Head Coach is to dictate his assistants to him. If you are going to be a Head Coach, you need to be the *HEAD* Coach. That means you get to choose your own guys and your own staff. You can't go dictating 50% of a Head Coach's staff to him. It blurs the chain of command, impedes their ability to work together, and undermines your new Coach. So yes, if we are going to dump Mularkey, we have to be willing to dump the entire coaching staff - including Bobby April. JDG

What about other NFL teams? JDG

Allow me to guarantee that you will be pissed.... no matter who is running the Bills' draft. JDG