JDG

Yippee!!!! Looks like there's a lot of free agents out there for us to sign!

Huh???? He's probably getting $6 mil from the Texans this year. Were the Bills offering Moulds $6 mil for this year?????? JDG

Huh??????? Weren't you ready to cut Moulds just a few weeks ago? JDG

I agree. One thing that is often overlooked in the run-up to the draft is that several players who will be drafted in the Top 10 are going to be busts. Yet, good luck finding a pre-draft publication that takes a crack at predicting who thoese busts will be. I disagree here. A good QB can instantly turn a team into a consistent playoff contender. Of course, there are other paths to consistent playoff contention (cf Pittsburgh and Baltimore in recent years), but jreally good QBs just seem to find their way into playoffs year after year in the NFL. Now, while drafting a QB is a crap shoot, many highly drafted QBs will go bust, and a few good QB's come out of the later rounds (Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme) - the truth of the matter is that a high 1st Round Pick QB is far more likely to turn into a consistent winner than a lowly drafted QB. In this year's draft, we have one QB, Matt Leinart, who is probably the most-accompished college QB to come out in several years. The guy was twice a Heisman finalist, and twice played in the National Championship game, including winning each once. He's only lost one game in the past two years - and while football is a team game, you still have to be pretty good to put your team in that position. All told, it is a very impressive resume, and unlike the Gino Toretta's and Danny Wuerffel's of the world, he appears to also have all of the natural physical tools. Watching Leinart bring USC back, on the road, against Notre Dame, its hard not to be impressed by his poise and leadership. You have to like the way he put his body on the line to try and win the game while diving for the end zone at the end of that one. There's no way that the Bills are getting Leinart, but we're kidding ourselves if we don't think that he'd be a worthwhile pick if he somehow fell all the way to #8. In many years, Leinart would be a consensus #1 overall pick, so he would simply be outstanding value if he somehow were there. The other QB, Vince Young, is admittedly a bit more intriguging. Watching him in the Rose Bowl, however, he looked like a snarter and more accurate version of Michael Vick. And hey, given the economic situation in Buffalo, and given the way that Buffalo has fallen completely off the national NFL map the past few years, getting a ticket-seller like Vince Young in Buffalo would not be a wholly bad thing. What really impressed me about his Rose Bowl performance, however, was his poise and leadership - given all the pressures of overcoming years of disappointment at Texas, he handled himself remarkably well in a lot of big games just to get to that point. And of course, his performance in that game was positively legendary. Its hard to project Vince Young to the Pros, quite simply because there is no other player quite like him. With his speed and agility, if he can pair that with a high degree of accuracy in the pros, he has at least an outside shot at becoming one of the best-ever - and how many players possibly available at #8 can we really say that about? Sure, its a gamble - but its one I'd be prepared to take. As for Jay Cutler, I honestly haven't seen too much of him - but I am nervous about QB's that weren't winners in college, and am definitely nervous about any QB being compared to Kyle Boller. He seems the hardest pick to justify at #8. Neverthless, the Bills are at the start of a new era. Levy and Jauron have about three years to build a winner. If Nall or Losman isn't the answer, then Levy and Jauron would be far better served by getting their QB now and beginning the development process, rather than simply living with the mistakes of the past and enduring with what they have. JDG

O.k., you describe this team as having "multiple needs" - but yet in your position-by-position description you seem to pooh-pooh all of our needs, save at DT. For example, Mario Williams at DE? Nope - the Bills have Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney. Sorry - but if the Bills evaluate Williams as being head-and-shoulders above the other prospects, then we absolutely should consider making a move for a player who would be a huge upgrade. How about AJ Hawk at LB? Nope, the Bills have Fletcher, Spikes, Crowell, and Posey. Sorry - but Fletcher and Spikes are getting old, Posey has never been any good, and Crowell, IMHO, got a lot of "clean-up" tackles last year. Again, we shouldn't shy away from an impact player. Vince Young or Jay Cutler at QB? Nope, the Bills have Nall, Holcomb, and Losman on the depth chart. Sorry - but Holcomb isn't the answer, the word on the street is that the Bills' braintrust has concluded that Losman is a bust, and how sold can anyone be on Nall as a long-term solution? I'm personally not a Cutler fan, but if a leader and a winner with unbelievable talent like Vince Young falls to us, and Jauron thinks that he can use him, I have to believe that QB absolutely enters the discussion. How about Vernon Davis at TE? Nope, the Bills have two 3rd Round Picks at TE coming off serious injuries. Sorry, but HELLO! - if a difference-maker like Vernon Davis is available, he should absolutely be considered. Betting on injured-third-round-picks is just plain silly...... About the only area where I agree with you is that we shouldn't be drafting a replacement for McGahee, despite his abysmal performance last year, in the 1st Round. That and that personal evaluations will be key in making the pick. In the end, the Bills are a bad team, and we have lots of room for upgrading our currently mediocre talent into difference makers beyond just drafting a DT or a Tackle in the first round. (I hope we aren't thinking of taking a Guard #8 overall.....) JDG

I think you are doing two here - you are seriously understating how bad JP Losman was, particularly in his second through fourth games, and also not giving enough credit to Holcomb for just how effective a conservative passing style can be (particularly for a defensive and special teams-oriented team.) For example, you state that Holcomb had better accuracy numbers because he opted to throw the unproductive short pass. There's no doubt that Holcomb had better accuracy numbers - Holcomb's worst accuracy day in a full game in 2005 was 60.6% @New England. JP Losman only topped Holcomb's worst day just once, with 60.7% against the worst team in football, and Losman was at or below 50% a whopping five times in nine games. But the astonishing thing is that Losman's passes weren't all that more productive than Holcomb's either. Holcomb's worst yardage day in a full game was 159 yards @Oakland. Losman, however, failed to top that mark on 4 out of 9 occasions. Indeed, he *twice* failed to match even *one half* of Holcomb's worst day! Additionally, in JP Losman's 9 games the Bills average 12.3 points per game. In Kelly Holcomb's 7 games the Bills averaged more than *twice* that amount with 24.8 points per game.* So, who was *really* making the unproductive passes? JDG * - I didn't have time to normalize for defensive and special teams scores, but I find it hard to believe that they could significantly neutralize that gap.

Not sure why you picked the Palmer post to make your "crusade territory" remark. That post added solid information to the discussion. To me, a crusade is something where you offer the same opinion over and over again without bringing in new facts or new reasoning to support it. JDG hasn't done this. 639182[/snapback] Thanks , Holcomb's Arm..... I'm apparently hitting "crusade territory" because of all the other posts I have made comparing Losman's first four games with Palmer's first five games..... JDG

But you have to understand that there was a huge difference between Losman's and Palmer's performances in their first starts in their second year: Losman: 17 of 28 (61%) for 170 yrds 1 TD 0 INT W v HOU 11 of 28 (39%) for 113 yrds 0 TD 0 INT L @ TB 10 of 23 (43%) for 75 yrds 0 TD 1 INT L v ATL _7 of 15 (47%) for 75 yrds 0 TD 1 INT L @ NO Palmer: 18 of 27 (67%) for 248 yrds 2 TD 1 INT L @ NYJ 21 of 38 (55%) for 147 yrds 0 TD 1 INT W v MIA 25 of 52 (48%) for 316 yrds 0 TD 3 INT L v BAL 20 of 37 (54%) for 164 yrds 1 TD 2 INT L @ PIT 20 of 35 (56%) for 148 yrds 1 TD 1 INT L @ CLE It should be self-evident that Losman was substantially worse than Palmer, even though both were handed the starting job in their second years without much first-year experience. The point isn't that Palmer played well - in fact, he was arguably pretty bad during that stretch. The reason that Marvin Lewis stuck with him, however, is that the Bengals were able to tolerate bad QB play. The problem for the Bills with Losman, is that he was performing substantially *worse*than*bad. Indeed, the killer for Losman was his virtually unfathomably bad performance line against a woeful New Orleans team. The Bills had no choice but to bench Losman after that, as at that point it was crystal clear that Losman was not on the Carson Palmer trajectory. JDG

Fair enough. Although to be exactly precise, I simply think that it is far more likely than not that Losman will fail, and I base this on comparing Losman's early performance versus the performances other 1st Round QB's in their second year in the League. Really, my posts are basically just responses to what I view to be two prevalent myths among Bills fans: 1) MYTH #1 - Losman's statistical performance last year is comparable to any number of other successful QB's who struggled early in their careers. 2) MYTH #2 - It is unfathomable that the Bills' brain trust could decide after just two seasons and 9 games that Losman "just doesn't have it" and begin making plans to move on (such as drafting a QB at #8 overall if one falls to us, or such as naming Nall or Holcomb the starter for next year, or such as drafting a QB in rounds 2-4 of the draft.) I get drawn into all these Losman debates because I keep seeing some variant of one of the above two myths being repeated, and can't resist pointing out the truth: Losman's performance so far has been substantially below that of other successful QB's who have struggled early, particularly in their second years; and there is ample precedent for NFL franchises accurately realizing that they have a bust QB even after just two seasons and less than a full season of starts. I admit the possibility that Losman might turn out fine, but the evidence seems to suggest that that will be unlikely. I'd love for him to be a Donovan McNabb, but I don't think he is quite as talented at McNabb. In any event, Donovan McNabb made his teams better in college, whereas Losman's teams really struggled in college. Now, there's by no means a 1 to 1 correlation between college and pro success, but his failure to succeed in college I think would have made Losman a substantially inferior prospect to McNabb on that basis alone, had they come out in the same year. JDG

Actually, he statistically played worse than many past NFL 1st Year starters - particularly he played worse than those 1st Year starters who were, like Losman, in their second year. JDG

The answer is: Jim Sorgi . The question is: Who was the best QB the Colts could find to back-up Peyton Manning last season. JDG

Well, my views on JP Losman seem to have become quite the source of controversy. Since the visibility of this position is surely going to be the source for future "I told you so" posts, here is what I believe regarding JP Losman as of 3/21/06 for the record, so that there isn't any confusion.... 1) Kelly Holcomb was the QB who gave the Bills the best chance to win every single week during 2005. Indeed, Buffalo *might* well have won three or four more games had Holcomb started every single game. (Although for the record, at the time of the actual games this season, I was as excited to get the chance to see JP Losman play as the next guy.) 2) Just because successful QB X struggled early in his career, it does not mean that Losman's performance so far has even been good enough to be comparable to QB X's struggles. Although many NFL QB's have struggled early in their careers before going on to success, (such as Drew Brees) JP Losman has significantly underperformed most of those examples. This is particularly true if comparing JP Losman to other QB's in their second year in the NFL (and many of these examples did not play as rookies either.) Although JP Losman has only had nine games under his belt, he was still nevertheless as a second-year player, and should be judged as such. His performance last year would have been disappointing for a rookie - for a second year player, it was downright abysmal. Indeed, almost all, if not all, of the examples of QB's who put up similar stats to Losman's before going on to success are examples of QB's who put up such stats as a rookie. There seem to be few, if any, examples of a QB sitting out their rookie year, putting up comparably abysmal stats as a second-year player, and then going on to success in the NFL. 3) Although successful QB X struggled early in his career - unsuccessful QB Z also struggled early in his career, and Losman's performance might actually bear as much similarilty to QB Z's track record as to QB X's. If a QB is simply never going to develop into a productive starter, the quicker you are able to reach that conclusion, the quicker you able to avoid having lost seasons due to shoddy QB play - lost seasons that hamper the development of the rest of your offensive skill position players, and the quicker you are able to begin developing your real QB of the future. Just look at what sticking with Joey Harrington has done to the Detroit franchise over the past few years. It is worth noting that Heath Shuler was abandoned after two years (just 18 games appearances (not sure how many starts) in those 2 years) as well as Cade McNown (@14 starts in 25 total games in two seasons) and Akili Smith (@15 starts in 18 games over 2 years). Indeed, although he wasn't a 1st Rounder, Shaun King was essentially abandoned as a starting QB after just his second year in the NFL and only 22 regular season games. Judgments are made after just two season on 1st Round QB's all the time by NFL talent evaluators , and often with less than a full season of starting. 4) At the heart of JP Losman's failings as a QB so far is his completion percentage. Big plays are nice, but ultimately a decent completion percentage is a sine qua non of NFL QB play. If you don't complete passes, then you are punting far more often than you want to, and ultimately losing games - such as by giving up serious comebacks to your opponent, thanks to all the extra possessions they receive, despite the big plays. All successful NFL QB's eventually exhibit a decent completion percentage. Even Eli Manning showed the ability to complete 60% or more of his passes in a game early on in his career, even while he was struggling overall. Heck, even Cade McNown showed that ability! So far, however, JP Losman has yet to show that ability. 5) It is legitimate to judge a QB after just two years in the League. At some point, even after just two years in the League, a QB has played too badly to justify further starting opportunities. Although it is difficult for fans to judge a QB after only nine games, NFL Coaches and GM's have the ability to break down the tape of each of those games, the opportunity to directly interview the QB in question, and to examine the film of practices - as well as to examine the entire pre-draft scouting report on a player. I believe it is entirely possible for an NFL Head Coach and NFL General Manager to develop certain conclusions about a quarterback. These conclusions are probably based on percentages and a range of outcomes - i.e. the likelihood of becoming a productive NFL QB in the future. If Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron conclude from this information that it is unlikely (but probably not impossible) that JP Losman will become a productive NFL starter, then Levy and Jauron should absolutely pursue other options at QB. This includes bringing in Craig Nall, or at least considering the drafting of a QB if they rate a QB is being clearly the best player available once we get on the clock. Due dilligence for Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron will certainly involve evaluating the available QB's in the draft, and assessing the likelihood of one of them becoming a productive NFL starter vs. the likelihood of JP Losman becoming an NFL starter vs. the likelihood of the other players available becoming a productive NFL starter. Although the Bills have now spent a ton of picks on Bledsoe and Losman, we can't change the past and can only look to the future. We can't chase our losses - so if a QB is the best pick available, then we should make that pick. Ultimately Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are going to be judged by wins and losses 2-3 years from now, and they can't be expected to blindly trot out a QB they don't believe in (if, indeed, they don't believe in him) just because their predecessor left them with him. 6) I believe that there is no guarantee that JP Losman should be the starting QB on the first day of Training Camp, nor on Opening Day. Based on the information available, Dick Jauron *must* start the QB on Opening Day who gives us the best chance to win that game. If there is no sign of change in Training Camp, then that player will be Kelly Holcomb or Craig Nall. JP Losman has had the opportunity to start, but his sorry performance in those opportunities has not earned him the continued opportunity to start in the blind hope that he will develop. As noted in #2 above, his performance has been substantially below that of other second-year QB's who struggled early in their careers before going on to success. Note: I am not saying that the Bills should cut Losman - indeed I am saying that I would totally support Marv Levy and Dick Jauron giving Losman the opportunity to come to Training Camp this summer and win the starting job back from Kelly Holcomb (and hold off the competition from Craig Nall), should Marv Levy and Dick Jauron think that that opportunity is warranted. I am not saying that I think that Losman will never become a productive NFL starter - I am just saying that it is unlikely, based on the experiences of past NFL QBs. I *love* mobile QB's, and I thought Losman was an exciting player last year. Unfortunately, while he is exciting, I also believe that last year he simply was not good enough to win. Moreover there are scant few examples of QB's putting up similarly bad numbers to Losman at the start of their careers, particularly in their second years in the NFL and going on to success. At some point, those odds (based on prior NFL experiences) start to become daunting - and again, there is a certain benefit to being able to cut bait with a likely failure as quickly as possible. I believe that given the way the odds are aligning, the Bills should still give Losman a chance this year, but should also be preparing for the fact that the most likely outcome of Losman getting that chance this year is that he will fail to produce at a high enough level to justify starting him in the future. Indeed, the Bills should be preparing for the possibility that based on evaluations in this year's camp, and if Craig Nall in particular could win the job, and perhaps if we end up with another young QB in this year's draft, that Losman might never start for the Bills again. But for now, I consider that to be just a legitimate possibility - and the reason I get into so many debates about Losman on here, is that far too many Bills fans seem to view that as an impossibility. JDG

This is my general assessment as well - but like you said, I certainly can't prove it. JDG P.S. To Ghost of BiB - I don't know what I ever did to piss you off, but I am certainly as capable of ignoring your foul-mouthed posts as much as I am capable of ignoring Ramius' posts of the same. Whatever.... You can now feel free to put in the last word, since that seems to be what you want....

The difference between the two stat lines must have been the play-calling....... JDG

I think there's a difference between "different" and "better." But no, I do not believe that the huge gap in performance last year between Losman and Holcomb can be explained by play-calling. I think that execution was a much larger explanatory factor, or in JP's case, the lack thereof. JDG

For someone who is apparently claiming that he intends to "quit talking to [me]" - you do have an interesting habit of being spectacularly wrong.... or did I just imagine the following post in an alternate-universe TBD? http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=42252&st=60 JDG

One of the truisms of life, right after 90% of people think that they are above-average drivers is that 90% of football fans think that their playcalling is terrible. Bills Fans, however, have to be the first who think that the playcalling was terrible for one QB but was just fine for the other QB. That must be it. JDG

Actually, NFL Players *should* take full consideration of the fact that with no income tax in Texas, that the same contract from the Dallas Cowboys or Houston Texans is worth quite a bit more than the same contract from the Bills. On the other hand, the Jets and Giants also live in a high income tax area, and it doesn't seem to hurt their ability to attract free agents..... not even for the lower-tier guys who won't be able to make it up in endorsement money.... JDG

Eli showed statistical improvement in a way that JP did not. I don't know how many more ways I can say it. I'm going to ignore the rest of your taking my quotes out of context, and leave it at that. Scroll up for my comparison of Manning's, Palmer's, Brees', etc.'s stats in the first year of starting. Aikman at least completed 50% of his passes. I don't know where this idea that I am convinced that we should cut JP is coming from..... You're reading a bit more into my opinions of JP than I have actually said. JDG

Peyton Manning as a rookie: 56.7% completion, 3739 yards, 26 TD and 28 INT Brett Favre as a second-year player: 64% completion, 3227 yards in 13 Starts, 18 TD and 13 INT. Carson Palmer as a second-year player: 60.9% completion, 2897 yards in 13 Starts, 18 TD and 18 INT. Drew Brees as a second-year player: 60.8% completion, 3284 yards, 17 TD and 16 INT JP Losman as a second-year player: 49.6% completion, 1340 yards in 9 games, 8 TD and 8 INT So please, tell me the story again about how all second-year QB's are terrible???? JDG

Name-calling ignored. 49% to 48%. YAY JP!!!! But this simply shows how aggregate stats can obscure the real story. JP had one good game at home in his first start against the worst team in football and went downhill from there. He had another decent game in relief against the KC Chiefs, who weren't exactly a juggernaut. Eli started 7 games as a rookie, including three playoff teams in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, and two road games against Washington and Baltimore, who had two of the best defenses in the League. JP, as a second-year player, stunk up the joint against New Orleans in San Antonio, and an Atlanta team that wasn't making the playoffs. Overall, six of his nine games were against non-playoff teams. Further evidence that QB Rating is a quirky stat of limited use. Sorry, you confused yourself here. JP had 228 attempts as a second-year player. Eli had 197. Eli threw 6 TDs and 9 picks, JP threw 8 and 8. This is again a situation where aggregate stats cloud the true picture. The simple truth is that Eli Manning, as a rookie, *got better* - and more importantly, turned in two fully competent performances in his final three games - including one against the Steelers' defense. JP, however, even as a second-year player, never reached the point of turning in a "complete, fully competent, game." If JP Losman had done this even once down the stretch, I would not be harping on the aggregate stats. I don't have a problem with JP struggling early - I do have a problem about him not getting better to the point of competence. JP went 7 of 15. Whopee! Eli's worst game came against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens, on the road, as a rookie. JP's worst start came against the New Orleans Saints, playing in San Antonio - as a second year player. Advantage: Eli. Again, I'm not interested in aggregate stats. I'm not going to hold early struggles against a QB. I am, however, going to look for them to eventually put together solid single-game performances. That's the difference between JP's second year and Eli's rookie year. What you don't understand is that all levels of "abysmal" aren't created equal. JP's performance last year was *NOT* typical of the early struggles of QB's that go on to future success, but was, in fact, substantially worse. That's not to say that he couldn't eventually turn it around (his first numbers bear some similarities to Elway's rookie numbers, for example) - but he could also be the next Cade McNown, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, or David Klingler. JDG

Man, you really know how to piss me off. If Losman gets hurt again this year, are you still going to say that "he hasn't had a full year." I'm all for letting Losman develop - but Losman *must* at least play at the level of "bad" or above. Note, I am not even saying that Losman has to be "good" - heck, I'm not even saying that he has to be "mediocre." I'm just asking for him to be "bad" (or higher.) And if Losman trots out two sub-50% completion stinkers again this year like he did last year, then he absolutely better find himself on the bench. JDG

No one's asking for miracles - I'd definitely settle for "below average." The problem is, Losman hasn't just not been "below average" or even "just plain bad", he's been abysmal. JDG

Where does 60% come from? Losman isn't even at *50%*. Moreover, Eli Manning as a rookie broke 65% twice.... Losman - never. JDG

Sorry, but take a look at the defenses played against vs. the defense JP Losman played against. Moreover, consider that Eli Manning was a rookie and JP Losman was a second-year pro. Finally, consider that Eli Manning put together two solid starts in those first seven games, each with greater than 65% completion percentage. Losman has topped 60% completion just once - at home against the worst team in football. If you dismiss Losman's performance against KC as the "well-documented Alex Van Pelt effect", then that game against Houston is Losman's only solid start. JDG