Tasker

Don't forget about adding McCargo and Youboty to the 2007 plans as almost rookies but with a whole year of learning the system under their belts. That's a first and third round draft pick, each with considerable physical talent at positions that are important and uncertain. And for the comment that it is the same stuff for a decade, no it isn't. The only thing that is the same is that we will miss the playoffs this year. This is the best young talent base we have had in that decade, and Dick and Marv are doing a better job of building what we need to make the playoffs and try to win a Super Bowl than any of their predecessors did. Willis in a contract year and then replaceable or re-signable, TKO will not be 100% until next training camp, but it is nice to see progress, and O-Line that will lose its weakest links but is outperforming what people had expected. This is the best I've felt about this team in a while, not because of the record or present ability, but because I feel we are on the right track to keep building something and have the second year of Dick/Marv better than the first, and the third better than the second. Hopefully the young buzz will make us a more attractive free agent destination as well (I hear the wings are good too!).

Dick didn't waste two timeouts on one play. Dick cost us an extra timeout by not challenging right away. He needs to work on throwing the flag. If he throws it right away here and right away on the Hargrove fumble recovery he would have done a much better job (and we might have lost an extra timeout on the first one and gained on the second, but he would have been right in his actions). These two no flags and not going on 4th and 3 inches already down 10-0 are the three plays I disagree with most by coach. Coaches won't always be perfect every play, but identifying what he messed up and learning to fix it is important for this team becoming a winner. My answers on who to blame: 1) Chargers being a better football team who will end up having homefield through the playoffs. 2) Refs really hurt us on several plays, and didn't make any mistakes in our favor that I can remember. 3) Offense for not getting anything going in the first half. The D put us in position to at least have this be a 10-3 halftime game. The offense didn't have to do much to make that happen, but they didn't pull it off.

I think that the JP interception was frustrating and a bad play, but it was more of a Favre INT, and we should expect him to throw it away, because the reception just wasn't there. The fumble was tougher to judge. It was a turnover that happens, needs to be avoided as much as possible, but happens to all teams and all QBs, and I don't see any specific flaw other than a general bad play that hurt. Neither of these turnovers were head scratchers or forehead slappers. They were just disappointing turnovers that hurt our chances. I Tivo'ed and watched the Willis play several times after initially yelling at him for not getting to the line. Looking more carefully he was going to be hit by #54 head on at about the line, and unless he won that collision I think he would have been short even though it looked easy as he caught the ball. His dance was a chance to get a 1st he might have otherwise missed, and even though he didn't get it, I don't think it was a "bad bad play". The in-the-grasp completion is so frustrating. We get that called but Vince Young gets to bounce out of Kiwaunke's grasp and run big. The protect the QB stuff has been a disaster in the NFL this year, and this one really hurt us. The calls in the 2nd half were even worse in my mind. I have no idea how Dick doesn't throw the flag on the Hargrove fumble, and that cost us seven points because of the field position difference. SEVEN POINTS! You can't be conservative field position and not go on 4th and 3 inches, and then not throw the red flag there. His two timeout failed challenge in the second half was just as bad. He needs to step up and admit he blew it on those two, and not just make excuses and say "we're getting better".

Good stuff in general. I was very disappointed with the decision to punt on 4th and 3 inches. I think down 10-0 we have to take our chances outside of the super conservative approach. I'm fine with conservative to take down high power offenses, but I like our chances to keep the ball more than giving it back over field position concerns. The timeout then challenge was terrible, as was not challenging the Hargrove fumble recovery. We wasted another timeout after the JP batted up in the air play, and while any one timeout to get the right play can be very reasonable, I detect a pattern that we have to get past. Between delays and wasted time outs, we have to get past that and it is undisciplined as a team that is penalized a lot. I don't agree with the safety criticism. Whitner and Ko didn't have great games, but the Gates / LT combo makes a lot of teams look bad. So not a great day, but these are still two solid players and not weakspots on our team. Our O-Line continues to shine and make our run D look like the more glaring hole, but I think we need to upgrade one of those five positions (four, actually, because Peters isn't going anywhere), and try to upgrade a second one if we can. We are still not opening holes on the run, and we don't go 4th and 3 inches says something. Without really seeing a ton from Youboty this year (which obviously is an indicator of something) I think getting Clements back is important if it doesn't break the bank and prevent us from improving more in other ways. With the cap space I hope it works out. I'm very optimistic that this team can keep growing and is on the right track. There are still things that aren't going right, but overall we are continuing to progress. Moral victories are not as good as actual victories, but they are better than pathetic losses and unless you are the 1972 Dolphins you need to use them to improve and gain confidence every week whether you win or lose. Now let's find a way to get to 6-7 and keep taking it one game at a time.

Bad elements favor the underdog, but don't always make a huge difference. If footing gets sloppy that would reduce the value of a quick back and increase the value of a pounding back, but I don't see the artificial turf getting sloppy enough for LT to have any disadvantage. That said, the worse the weather is the better it is from the Bills. In perfect conditions without the ball bouncing our way, the Chargers are clearly a better team. Anything that gets in the way, whether a specific game plan (like against Indy) or bad weather, will help us. A tough passing environment will be hard for JP and Rivers, and makes it easier for us to stack the box against LT. Bad weather would tend to lead to a lower scoring game where one special teams break or turnover could change the game, which isn't the case on a sunny game where LT is getting into the end zone five times. So it won't necessarily make a huge difference, but I think Bills fans should root for the bad weather and San Diego would definitely prefer 72 and sunny and weather not being a factor at all [author looks out his window in San Diego].

I think he is referring to unloading more than scalping. There are always people who don't want to go to the game, or tickets scalpers have gotten from one reason or another, and before a non-sellout they can go for less than face value, and once a game starts they go for whatever they can get, because after the game they drop to $0. I'm speaking generally, and don't know how this impacts Sunday at the Ralph, but across sports and cities there is usually a secondary market for tickets (often in front of the venue) regardless of availability or the game being sold out. The last time I bought tickets for a game in Buffalo (admittedly, a while ago) I got them before kickoff for less than face value. Best of luck because the more Bills fans we have at the game the better, regardless of how much they paid for their tickets.

Some other observations watching NFL replay with a DVR: On the interception play, Willis had a tremendous block leaving his feet, without which I think JP wouldn't have stepped up far enough in the pocket and it might have been a sack. That said, Pennington doesn't seem to block anybody (maybe the scheme, and then drifts back, and collides with JP as he throws. The ball was so badly thrown on first glance, but I think this was a "hit as he throws" effect, and looking at it closer, Lee might have been open deep if Pennington doesn't make contact with JP. JP underthrew Lee baldy on the pass interference bomb, but the ball still went a long way in the air. Crowell looked bad on the painful running drive on several plays including the touchdown. He also seemed out of place on the big roll out pass to Drew. I don't know the defensive responsibilities, but seeing where Fletcher was and where Crowell was (and Crowell running two strides behind Drew for ten yards) it looked like this was on him. Obviously his whiff on the big 4th down play was a potential game killer. Everybody gets a bad day, but he really just didn't seem to have much ball hawk to him on Sunday. Beyond the obvious plays, Tripplett was just very impressive, consistently getting penetration as our defensive scheme calls for. Kyle really didn't seem to be very effective or disruptive and often seemed a little slow off of blocks in a bunch of plays. I think he will be a good player, but I think the early season hopes got a little too high for him, and two years from now we'll all agree that McCargo is the much better player. Clearly getting the ball into Roscoe's hands is a good thing, and we need to make sure it happens more, because it feels like sometimes he goes a week with two fair catches and one dropped pass, and never gets to do what he does. Just one game, and we get McCargo for "free" next year, but I'm actually more concerned with rush defense than the O-Line right now. I was impressed with the O-Line as a whole, even though they have a long way to go and the weakest link or two will need to be replaced this off season as well (Preston to backup with a stud taking his place seems most logical right now, but I'll wait and see). Go Bills!

If we couldn't pass protect against the Lions D-Line how the heck do we pass protect against the Jags? LT is very very good, and could have a great game on Sunday, but nothing is a lock, and he could have an off week. I like the reasons why we can beat San Diego. I don't know if they are reasons we WILL beat San Diego, but they are reasons fans should take optimism into the game and the players can play to win for 60 minutes.

Quick props to Coy Wire but also to Lee: Stanford > Wisconson > THE Ohio State University > The U

I really want us to re-sign Nate if at all possible. But I also really want Ashton to see the field this year so we can evaluate him better and know what we have going into the off season. I guess they see him every day in practice, and can learn from when he tries to cover Lee, but I can't imagine there is that much of a drop off from Greer to him to hold him to zero snaps for 2006.

Clarification - Willis & Roscoe live at the U in a football dorm in orange and green Hurricanes sleeping bags. But all three of their touchdowns on Sunday were in Orchard Park, so I won't hold it against them Holcomb wanted to live far away from Buffalo, but every time he tried to move, he couldn't make it more than nine yards from One Bills Drive and the movers kept checking down and dumping off his furniture in East Aurora. And I promise this is my last Holcomb joke now that JP has stuck a fork in the QB controversy. From now on I just root for him as a intelligent and competent backup.

I think this decision will have to be made with an open mind at the right time, but the right time is not now, and I think the right decision will end up being to keep him. This is an injury that will take a year to get back to his best. There is a chance that he won't be the same, but everything I've seen this year shows that physically he is progressing and will recover fully. He will be 31 when he recovers, but will have missed more than a season of hits, so has a chance to play younger than that if his ankle is fine. That is still an "if", but I think an "if" that can only be accurately evaluated next training camp. We are a league of Texans Moulds, Redskins Bruce Smith, Dolphins Thurman, so if that reality happens we will deal with it, but I think that TKO still has a very good chance of being an impact player in 2007 and finishing his career as a Bill.

We need to wait until the draft to really know how our specific picks can be used, but yes, O-Line and D-Line are still our biggest needs, and we can't ignore them. All five linemen are playing acceptably at least, but I have a hard time thinking that we cannot improve on at least one of those positions with a day 1 pick. It is good that we don't need to force a #1 pick on something that doesn't fit right (Winston Justice over Dante Whitner for example). But Peters is the only one of our line that I really like and feel confident about. That leaves four maybes. It would be cool if each of those four shows a lot, but Pennington still has to show a lot, and I have a hard time thinking we wouldn't be a better team without a stud RG and Preston as a backup. And our D-Line is too weak to not try to improve even with Triplett playing well (we expected he would), and McCargo coming back. Depends on who we can get, but given our rotation you only have to beat out Tim Anderson to improve our team a lot. That said, a large receiver would be nice, as would a tight end who can make plays (maybe not Gates/Gonzalez, but shooting in that direction), but not at the expense of passing on quality linemen on either side of the ball...only if the skill player is better than the best available trench player, and we are confident to address the trenches in other parts of the off season.

Don't give up on this game too quickly. We are clearly underdogs and have our work cut out against a powerful team clicking on all cylinders, but the Chargers are not unstoppable. Living in San Diego, and seeing all of the Charger games I appreciate how good their team is, and how LT is incredible and the best player in football. But that also means I saw them trailing 14-7 in the 4th quarter against the Raiders AT HOME and only with a couple breaks were they able to pull it out. Without his 44 yard run in the 4th quarter, he 18 rushes for 65 yards, so the Raiders did a good job of containing him for much of the game. I won't mention their loss at the Ravens, because that is a very different team and one of the NFL elite defenses, but take a look at the Steelers holding him to 13 rushes for 36 yards in week 5. And take a look at their loss in KC where he was held to 15 for 56 yards (but did have 72 yards receiving). Also, Pitt, Oak, KC, Cle, Cinn., and Den all were able to lead against them for much of the game. They came back in all but one of those, but constant comebacks are using up a lot of their fairy dust, and a couple bounces not going their way makes that a lot harder. So I'm not going to bet the rent check in Vegas on the Bills to win, and think the Chargers should be favored. But if things go well the Bills could pull out a stunner and LT could end up having 80-120 in a losing effort. Let's hope for bad weather on top of that to make things even harder for the Chargers.

I am very happy that the O-Line has been playing well, and I am very concerned about the D-Line. That said, we get McCargo back in addition to any other acquisitions, and we cannot let a couple good games realize that four of our five O-Linemen are fighting for their lives. We need to see how the coming games play out, and who emerges, but I would definitely like to see us get a quality guard, and probably a second lineman to replace the second weakest link. I'd love if Pennington emerges and we don't see a clearly better alternative available. Similarly having Roscoe and Price step up the last couple weeks along with Super Lee takes some pressure off of the second receiver need, but I wouldn't mind a big receiver somewhere if there is a fit, but not round 1 unless clearly the best player. A playmaker tight end would be nice too if something fits. I think that having the line play well gives us the ability to not force draft by a script, and take the best option to improve our team with each pick. Here is my hope-we-aren't-forced-to-follow-a-script script: OG DT TE WR LB OG/OT DE

I was very very impressed with the O-Line, which has me doing a double take. I know we can improve this line this offseason and have to do so, but right now each of these five is doing a nice job and exceeding reasonable expectations. It's an understatement to say that Jauron's bye week shuffle has really worked out.

I just saw Donivon Darrius, the Jags strong safety, broke his ankle and is out for the season. That should shake up the secondary and help us try to score more points than the Giants managed yesterday.

I wrote about Evans comparing very favorably with Steve Smith a while back, but I'm not going to add anything now coming off his record game. I just enjoy him as a player and as a person, and I think we have something special. As we go through our Super Bowl Winning Team Checklist I think we can check off #1 receiver.

Getting Nate back will have to be an economic decision, not just a talent decision. Clearly we want him back economics aside, but if committing too much money to him hurts us in other areas or prevents us from getting better in other areas, we will have to deal with the loss, and hope Youboty can step up. But if the team starts playing better and showing promise and he is having fun, he might be more interested in staying in Buffalo, and hopefully there won't be another team who breaks the bank and makes that impossible.

Against Jax we are going to have to play a more balanced even football game than either of the last two weeks, and hopefully that will be our plan moving forward as well. They looked very impressive against the Giants, but so far this year have not been the same team on the road, and hopefully we can get some bad weather. I don't want to think about SD right now, but that will be a tough game no matter how you look at it, and if we are coming off a win against Jax will be a good test for us to compete. They lost at KC based on a bad first quarter, but are a really good team, and we will need a few breaks to win that game (turnovers & special teams).

The LT play comment is off the mark. No, our backup RB cannot make that play. Nor every other player in the league. LT is the best player in football, and that was a spectacular play executed perfectly. Our team did show Saturday that when the deep threats are there (maybe because Evans had burned them twice, maybe because they were in prevent) we can pass effectively to our backs, and I think that when Willis gets healthy he will be even better at this. I do think a key piece of this puzzle is that JP didn't just have three touchdowns, but he had three perfect passes all on very difficult plays. This wasn't a drop the ball into broken coverage, or just execute what is available. This was his talent making throws that a lot of QBs could not make. What I do find alarming is the lack of contribution from the tight ends and Roscoe. Roscoe can be electric when he gets the ball in his hands (and not bouncing off of them), but if that doesn't happen more, he becomes pretty useless. And without being Gates or Gonzalez, I would really like a tight end to be more involved in the passing game, otherwise they are just undersized offensive linemen.. Hopefully Price can get back into things, and he showed his upside on that play. If he can settle into a solid #2 receiver (Reggie Wayne to Lee's Harrison) and stay involved, our passing game takes a huge stride forward.

We don't need a script, we need to understand our flaws and use the best options to address them. We clearly need to continue to improve our line, but we don't really know which links are our weakest and what our priorities are yet, because we have LG, RG, RT in those spots only for the last couple games. We have to see if Gandy shows some strength as a guard, but my first thoughts are that he would probably be replaced. He has six games to prove us wrong. I'm doubtful about Preston, since he was unable to take a starting spot from any of these guys before injuries got him on the field, and I project him as a backup, but he also has six games to prove that wrong. I'm hopeful about Pennington. It is much too soon to know, but he might be able to show us by the end of the season that he is our best option rather than a rookie. He moved ahead of Butler (the higher pick) and has played fairly well, and has very good physical talent, but I think it is better to appraise him carefully after the season. I guess Fowler is sticking around by default in most of the master plans, so we are looking at replacing 1 to 3 starting lineman. I personally would probably like it to be 2 in the end, because I don't think one will be enough and would mean we are overvaluing what we have, and three would be huge turnover as well as committing a lot of our resources. The most important thing if we bring in expensive free agents or use day 1 picks is to be as sure as possible that they represent an immediate upgrade to that position, and not just an investment for the future/depth.

One game at a time. I thought I was the biggest optimist in the land. I don't think that San Diego is going to be a game we can be favored in, but anything can happen. Let's try to continue to progress and get to 5-6 first, then worry about the next week. I would love to see playoff hopes stay alive as long as possible, and am glad they are still mathematically alive after ten games. But 9-7 would be a huge accomplishment, and 8-8 would be pretty good as well. I appreciate the enthusiasm and optimism, and would love for as many pieces as possible of your dream season to come together. But expecting them to all come together at this point seems a little over enthusiastic.

WM has not played to his potential, and that's no fun. A-Train is solid but not great. Running Backs are one of the more shorter lived replaceable positions. Unless you are truly something special there is not a big drop off from one to another. All that said, Willis is still a great back, better than A-Train, four years younger, and with more upside. He will play even better with a better line and passing game. I hope Willis is our RB for the end of the season and for the 2007 season. 2008 and beyond is too far to think about and depends on financial considerations, etc. But if I had only A-Train I would want to find another back in the draft. With a healthy Willis I think we can hold off and focus on other places (O-Line, D-Line, 2nd Receiver, Tight End, DB if Clements leaves)

Wait, we aren't GMs. We are football fans. We are Bills fans! We don't have to show up on Monday and worry about the Jags. We are supposed to have a great Sunday of fun, and then enjoy this win for six days! So I'm with Johnny Coli. Let's enjoy the moment!!!!!