Reddy Freddy

Believe it or not, they still have a solid shot if they win out, which I know everyone will say is impossible. Using the espn playoff machine, if you give wins to the teams that rank higher in their power rankings the rest of the season and flip one game (GB over Pitt) and make the Bills win out, the Bills would get in at 8-8. At the very least, if they beat TB, Jax and Miami, they should be mathematically alive going into the final week. I know people get exasperated about the mere mention of the Bills in the playoffs because they are frustrated with the losses and constantly being let down by the Bills. I really get that. But what you have to understand is that the last wild card spot will likely go to a team with a mediocre record, and with three very winnable games coming up for the Bills, there's still a shot.

If you're scenario plays out, then I bet the Bills are at least mathematically alive going into the Pats game, which would be pretty cool for this year's team.

One of the teams in contention for that last playoff spot would have to win 4 of their last 5 games to get to 9-7. The winner of that Steelers-Ravens game will still have to win 3 of their last 4 to get to 9-7. Otherwise, an 8-8 team will make the playoffs.

Well we're favored to win vs. Atlanta. And if we win that, I bet we'll be no worse than a pick' em vs. Tampa. We'll also probably be favored in Jax and at home vs Miami. Sooooo ... there is SOMETHING that should make people believe we can win a few games in a row. Ahh, the constant battle between those who want to dream big and those who are terrified of getting their hopes up for fear of being let down.

Based on what? The team currently in the 6th spot is under .500. Why are some people so certain that the 6th seed at the end of the season will be over .500?

I like where your head's at. Let's do this.

The scenario you outlined (Bills beating Jax and Jets beating Oak) is by far the most likely scenario in my opinion. For that reason, I don't think any tiebreaker would come down to record vs. common opponents. I played with the playoff machine a little more, and we can in fact win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. The key is that the Bills' one loss has to come vs an NFC team. For instance, I used the power ranking criteria, then gave the Bills wins vs. everyone except Atlanta and the Jets wins vs everyone except Balt, Carolina, and Miami. Both teams finish 8-8, Bills win tiebreaker. So call me crazy, but if we lose to Atlanta or TB (our 2 toughest games remaining except NE in my opinion), I'm still not sticking a fork in us.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. I feel pretty good about the Bills' chances if they get to 9 wins, but was hoping to find a reasonable path for them to make it with 8 wins. That looks tough unless the Jets tank.

The main problem I'm having is that I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets. If that's the case, it wouldn't matter who else we were tied with since divisional ties are broken first. Looks like we'll probably have to win out to make it.

A few thoughts: 1) I love this thread and eball for creating it, and this is no place for negativity. 2). I think there's a distinct possibility the last wild card gets in at 8-8, although I'll admit this is probably somewhat unlikely. Still, the teams currently in the 6th spot are .500, so what makes people so sure that won't be the case at the end of the season as well? And which of the contending teams do people see as likely to get to 9-7, keeping in mind that for most of them that would mean winning 5 of the last 6 games? Not saying if the Bills get to 8-8 they will get in, but I would not be shocked at all if an 8-8 team makes it. 3) It is probably the case that if we win each of the games that we'll be favored in, then we'll be 8-7 going into the New England game. I believe we'll be favored vs Atlanta. We win that, we'll be favored vs. Tampa and Jax. Win those, we'll be favored vs. Miami. Nothing earth-shattering here - just a different way to think about it. I actually see the Atlanta game as the scariest one of the next 4. As terribly as they've played, that's still a talented team that was almost in the SB last year. 4) If we get to the New England game with a realistic shot of making the playoffs in the final week, I don't care what anyone says, I'm counting that as a playoff game and declaring the end of the playoff drought.

Agreed on all points. That last AFC playoff spot is there for the taking, and a mediocre team is going to get it. It's the Jets, a bunch of 4 win teams, and us and the other 3 win teams. Another way to look at it: If we beat the Jets this weekend, none of the contenders for that last AFC playoff spot will have more than 1 win more than the Bills. The problem isn't that we're too far out of it. As usual, the problem is finding a way to win our games.

THAT'S ... why they play the games.

I'll bet you a Buffalo nickel that the last AFC wild card gets in at 9-7. Not saying that will be us, but a 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the AFC. San Diego is 4-3 and has to play Denver and KC twice each still.

My optimistic projection above ... 9 wins is the magic number in my opinion. That at least gives us a solid chance, especially if we beat the Jets and Dolphins. I still think @Pitt will be very tough and Atlanta is still dangerous. If we lose to Atlanta or drop one of the games we'll be favored in (TB, JAX, MIA), then I think we'll need to win the last game of the year to get to 9 wins.

I think this is exactly right. 2-2 over the next 4 games keeps us alive to get to 9-7 on the season, which I think gives us a chance in the AFC this year. Here's how I look at it: Regarding the games before the bye, I think we will lose to the Saints and beat the Jets at home. That means we have to take one of the two games home vs. the Chiefs and at the Steelers. Both would be great, but I think that's asking too much with Thad likely still at QB for those games. That gets us to 5-6 at the bye, hopefully with EJ ready to come back at that point. Regarding the games after the bye, we should be favored to win at Tampa, at Jax, and home vs Miami. Win those, and you're then at 8 wins. The two other games are Atlanta in Toronto and at New England. Split those and you're at 9 wins. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? I don't think so.

If we can steal 2 of the next 3, my mind will wander to the possibility of making the playoffs. That puts us at 4-5 with a decidedly easier stretch of games to follow. I think 9-7 would give us a shot at the last wild card in the AFC this year. So how do the next 3 games shape up? I'd say we have a 50% chance of winning at Miami, a 10% chance of winning at New Orleans, and a 40% chance of beating KC at home. I'll let the statisticians do the math on what odds that gives us to get to 4-5 ... Roughly 20-25% chance maybe?

Wow, it just goes to show that when it comes to QBs, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I came away from watching this clip thinking he looked terrible. Jittery and inaccurate, especially on deeper throws but even on short ones. Numbers aside, if he looks like this for us we will have one of the 2 or 3 worst starting QBs in the league, which I guess should be expected given his background, but to say he will play at a higher level than EJ is absurd in my opinion. I'll never understand how a guy like this gets a gig in the NFL over someone like Tim Tebow, who has had success whenever he has been a starter at every level of football, but I know I'm in the minority with that opinion to say the least. All that said, go Thad - prove me wrong!

What if Lewis is just ok but we somehow manage to stay in contention in the next few weeks?

He set the Green Bay Packers all-time record for passing yards and TDs thrown in one game. THAT ALONE makes him more qualified than Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel.

Look around you. Do you see a healthy NFL QB ANYWHERE ON THIS TEAM? It's different degrees of non-NFL QB-ness at this point.

It pains me to say this, but I'd be in favor of bringing in Flynn. Not to start this week, but as a potential option for next week in case Thad craps the bed. Or even as a better backup option than Tuel. Yep, this is what it has come to: Matt Flynn.

I think he's implying that people don't usually comment on the fact that, say, Jeff Tuel, is a well-spoken kid.

I agree, although I think it's fair to call the Bills' QB situation a total train wreck at this point. I don't really blame the front office - they acquired Kolb and EJ. Teams don't usually get down to their 3rd option at QB, so it's hard to say they should have expected it. You could make the argument that they should have brought in a more experienced option as soon as Kolb went down, but I'm not sure there were any viable options out there. One more point: in my opinion Freeman choosing the Vikes illustrates the hurdles that the front office still must overcome when trying to lure talent/coaches to Buffalo. I know the thinking is that Freeman chose the Vikes because he might have a shot to stick there long term, but I gotta believe if a more well-respected franchise like the Niners, for example, had the same QB crisis as the Bills, Freeman would have gone to the Niners. The only thing that will help is winning.

"I feel my first NFL completion coming on real soon!" -Pat White Good luck Pat. I'm depressed. Go Bills, I guess.

I am irrationally heartbroken by this. Pat White? Yikes.