Orton's Arm

I wish more people in this thread would employ Occam's razor. The simplest explanation of this signing is this: 1) It's Buddy's job to add talent to the roster. 2) The Bills currently have no backup quarterbacks 3) If Corp works out well, he'll beat out enough other potential backup QBs to secure a spot on the roster 4) If Corp doesn't work out, the Bills lose nothing Let's say there's only a 5% chance of outcome 3) occurring. The more 5% chances Buddy gives himself, the more likely he is to have something good happen. It's not like Buddy is the only GM doing this. All GMs around the league will expand their rosters to the maximum allowable 80+ size; and almost all of those additional players will end up camp fodder when rosters are reduced down to 53.

> where he was the (I think it was) 7th highest QB in the league Depends what tool you're using. QB rating places a strong emphasis on completion percentage. As such, it will always overstate the performance of QBs who emphasize short, high percentage passes; while understating the performance of QBs with the opposite style of play. QB rating will always make Fitz look better than he actually is. Yards per attempt is a much more accurate evaluation tool; and it's much harder to inflate YPA than QB rating. But even according to yards per attempt, Fitz is a better QB than Sanchez. (The same is also true of most house cats.) During the stretch you mentioned, Fitz had a solid, but not spectacular, YPA. Certainly a better YPA than his usual.

I voted for Sanchez. I have consistently been one of Fitz's bigger detractors here on these boards. But look at Sanchez. He averaged 6.7 yards per attempt as a rookie, 6.5 as a sophomore, and 6.4 in his third year. For comparison, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. The Jets had a guy whose numbers were gradually declining to below-Edwards levels, on a team with a better supporting cast than the one Edwards had. Had Sanchez been in a QB competition with Edwards, it's very far from obvious he would have won. Given these data, the Jets felt the need to . . . lock him up with a big contract? As bad as Fitz's extension was, it did not ascend to the same lofty heights of boneheadedness as Sanchez's.

Russ Brandon: "Now that I'm in charge, this team will take a more corporate approach in everything it does. We'll start by signing a guy named Corp!"

Good post. You make a number of good points; especially about the importance of neural genetics. An effective, culturally neutral way of measuring someone's neural genetics is through reaction time (RT) testing. Faster reaction time correlates to higher I.Q. I haven't watched college football in years, so everything I know about these guys is based on reading other people's commentary. Reviews on Geno Smith have been very mixed--his supporters seem to think he could be the next Big Deal; whereas his detractors are concerned he might not make it as a starter at all. I've seen the Bills get burned again and again by empty hype; and that's made me a bit jaded. When a guy like Mike Mayock raises concerns about Geno Smith's accuracy or ability to see his second or third read, I find it deeply concerning.

True. But in order to make the transition to the NFL level, he'll have to learn how to go through his progressions. Losman is a good example of a QB who never learned to go through his progressions at the college level, and never learned it in the NFL either. All else being equal, I feel much more comfortable drafting a college QB who's shown he can go through his progressions, than one who is a question mark.

I mostly agree with this post. I'd also add that when fans come to games with paper bags over their heads or other visible signs of discontent, that also sends a message. Brandon has been in charge of this team before. Back then, the Bills drafted Maybin and Wood in the first, and Byrd and Levitre in the second. Back when Nix took over from Brandon, people pointed at Maybin as the type of pick Nix would not make. Maybin was a one year wonder, and did not have any big games against top competition. While Buddy might be willing to take chances on guys like that later in the draft, he's not willing to use first round picks on them. I remember when TD was billed as an upgrade over Butler. I remember when Marv was billed as an upgrade over TD. I remember when Brandon was billed as an upgrade over Marv. I remember when Buddy was billed as an upgrade over Brandon. Now Brandon is being billed as an upgrade over Nix? You'd think that with this much upgrading, the Bills would have several Super Bowl trophies by now! In a perfect world, Buddy and Brandon would work together to produce a better-run team than either would have alone. There's even a chance things will work out exactly as fans like me hope. But I want to see some good, solid drafts for the Bills before getting the anointing oil out for either Buddy or Brandon.

I normally don't follow college football; which means my knowledge of college QBs is limited. That said, what you've written above is an extremely serious concern. The last thing I want on my team is a player who's laughing and joking on the sidelines while his team is losing. I'd sooner expect to see Bill from NYC advocate trading up for a DB than to see a QB like Brady or Rodgers laugh and joke during the middle of a putrid performance.

Forget linebacker. If the only thing the Bills accomplish in the next two years is to acquire a franchise QB, these two years will have been a success. You can get good, solid linebackers later in the draft.

> The overwhelming majority of people recognized at a very early stage in his career that he was not as good relative to his draft position. True. But a number of those who acknowledged he hadn't lived up to his draft position still described him as an above-average or even Pro Bowl safety. Edwards_Arm > Is there anything you would advise me, as a fan, to do differently to promote a more competent front office? JohnC > Pay more attention to your own team's foibles instead of harranguing long departed players. My question was about what I could do to promote a more competent front office. Not about what I could do to please you personally.

Cornelius Bennett was a very talented player. He played on a 3-4 defense; and played on the same team as Bruce Smith in his prime. He never had more than 9.5 sacks in a season. Paup also played on a 3-4 defense, and played alongside an aging Bruce Smith. Paup had 17.5 sacks in his best season. Prior to his injury, Paup was that great.

> Vindication of what? He is playing in the SB. So what? A few years ago, the 49ers had a good overall football team, and a hole at SS. Today, they have a better overall football team, and a hole at SS. > The Bills have been out of the playoffs for 13 consecutive years. Part of the reason for that long drought was the squandering of the 8th overall pick on Whitner. > Why does a former inconsequential player drafted by a moronic front office at the top of the draft draw so much attention and ire? When Whitner was selected to the Pro Bowl, many of his supporters here on these forums triumphantly proclaimed he was a top safety. After watching his performance in the Super Bowl, it should have been glaringly obvious to anyone why Whitner the free agent had attracted so little interest from GMs. But now that it's become crystal clear that Whitner's detractors were right all along, we're not supposed to point this out because . . . we're spending too much attention on the subject? Back when Whitner's supporters were gloating about his (completely undeserved) Pro Bowl invitation, did you tell them they were giving the subject too much attention? > When your product is garbage work on your own stink before spending an iota of time and effort on player that has for a long time nothing to do with you. You seem to be holding Bills' fans collectively responsible for the incompetence of the front office. Is there anything you would advise me, as a fan, to do differently to promote a more competent front office?

> Donte Whitner and Marshawn Lynch are long gone. Why waste time on them when there is a bounty of fodder to scrutinize on the hometown front? To be honest, I don't waste a whole lot of time on Lynch. I'm content to make my observations about him and then move on. As far as I'm concerned, he's a thug, a wasted draft pick for Buffalo, and is playing well for Seattle. It is what it is, and requires no further commentary. With Whitner the situation is different. A bubble of hype seems to surround him wherever he goes; and Whitner's own mouth is responsible for a lot of that hype. If thta bubble didn't exist, I wouldn't feel the impulse to burst it. If Whitner was living up to the hype, I wouldn't feel the impulse to burst the bubble. His Pro Bowl invitation was based on empty hype, the idea that San Francisco's success was because of him--rather than despite him--is hype. I for one am tired of all Whitner-related hype! How is any of this relevant to the Bills, you may ask. At least according to some of Whitner's supporters here on these boards, Whitner's troubles in Buffalo were due in large part to bad coaching and a bad situation. According to this myth, Whitner went to San Francisco, received much better coaching, was put into a much better situatin, and voila! became a much better player. In the Super Bowl, we saw the kind of player Whitner really is. The above logic has also been used to defend numerous other underperforming Bills players, both past and present. According to that line of thinking, underperforming Bills' player ______ could do a lot better, if placed in the right situation with the right coaching. Whitner's supposed improvement after going to the 49ers is seen as a supporting example of this.

> Your hostility towards Whitner and Lynch, both playing for winning and playoff teams, is very much misplaced. How so? What statements have I made about Lynch or Whitner which are either exaggerated or inaccurate? Yes, I realize that the blame for drafting them belongs with the front office, or perhaps with the owner. That doesn't change the fact that, as human beings, I find a lot more to dislike about their personalities than to like. That dislike did not (as you seem to suppose) magically appear after they left the Bills. I began disliking Lynch when I heard about the hit-and-run accident, and about his "borrowing" 20 dollars. I began disliking Twhitner long before he left the Bills. > I take issue with hometown fans who make excuses for their loser team and then make excuses for why other teams win, especially with the Pats. Great, but how is this relevant? When have you seen me do either of these things? > My view and attitude to Stevie Johnson are very justified. He is a self-centered brat player who over-rates hmself, as many of the local fans do. As a #1 receiver he is a lower tiered caliber of player. Your current discussion of Stevie Johnson revolves around name-calling--"self-centered brat player"--supported by repetition of arguments you have made before. You will not persuade me with these tactics. Unless you have something new and worthwhile to bring to a Stevie Johnson debate, I have no interest in discussing this further. > No one disputes the fact that the Bills have a history of over-loading their drafts with RBs and DBs. That is not the core of their drafting problems. The real issue is their evaluation proficiency is poor regardless of the positions. Both evaluation proficiency and position selection are core drafting problems with the Bills. Unlike players at most other positions, first round RBs are expected to make quick impacts as rookies. RBs typically have shorter careers than players at most other positions. For a GM who's more focused on making a quick impact in his first year than he is on the long-term project of building a Super Bowl champion, a first round RB can be a very tempting pick. When TD took over, he inherited a team with plenty of holes. RB was not among them: Antowain Smith was a decent, but not great, RB. That didn't stop him from immediately creating a hole at RB (by parting ways with Smith), and using a 2nd round pick to fill that hole. Just a few years later, he used a first round pick on yet another RB. When Marv came, the Bills once again had holes at a number of positions. But the Bills had a reasonably good RB in the form of McGahee. That didn't stop Marv from artificially creating a hole at RB (by trading McGahee) and using the 12th overall pick on his replacement. One sees much the same thing at DB positions. Three times over the last decade, the Bills created holes at DB by allowing the DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment leave via free agency. They have also used a number of first round picks on filling the holes thus created. Their overemphasis on RBs and DBs represents execrable team-building strategy, quite apart from any flaws in the player evaluation process.

Your hostility towards Stevie Johnson is irrational. To call him "clown Stevie" is absurd when he competes like a warroir every week, and is arguably the best non-RB player on the team. You claim that Whitner gives the game all he has. I'm not convinced of that. I'm a highly competitive person myself. If I mess up, and if my mistakes cause my team to lose, I go into a period of mourning. I sensed that same reaction from Stevie after he dropped that TD pass; and (to an even greater degree) from Scott Norwood, after w*** r****. Whitner's putrid play in that Super Bowl cost his team a lot more points than Norwood's missed field goal cost the Bills. Both Super Bowls were about equally close. But instead of the expected (and completely appropriate) mourning, we got yet more boasting about hypothetical future accomplishments. That reaction does not seem consistent with a man with a passionate will to win; and who experiences a broken heart after a loss. Nor was I impressed with the fact Whitner was out of position on some plays--a problem which seems like it could have been avoided, had he spent more time with his playbook and in the film room. A guy like Chris Spielman wouldn't have let himself get caught out of position like that. He'd study hard enough to make sure that didn't happen. I have not seen empirical evidence to suggest Whitner works nearly as hard as Spielman or Jerry Rice worked. Rather than direct unjustified hostility toward one of the very few bright spots on the team--as you are doing with Stevie Johnson--it would be more productive to put Whitner side-by-side with Marshawn Lynch. There are strong parallels between the two players. Marv picked both players in the top-12. Both were wasted draft picks. Both are self-centered. Both play positions highly overrepresented among the Bills' early draft picks. (Over the last 40 years, the Bills have used 25% of their first picks of the draft on RBs, and another 25% on DBs.) So why do I feel so much more irritation with Whitner than I do with Lynch? To be honest, I'm not entirely sure. One could point to Whitner's loud mouth; but you'd think that would be balanced out by the fact Lynch is a thug.

Your opinion of Stevie Johnson is more negative than mine; both as a person and a player. As a player, Stevie regularly gets open even against elite CBs like Revis. While he may not be A.J. Green, he's still an accomplished #1 WR. And would accomplish even more if he had a real quarterback. As for Stevie's TD celebrations, his objective there was to use a little creativity and humor to make other people's lives more entertaining. Sure, part of that involved him being the center of attention for a few seconds. But at least he was trying to earn that attention, first by making a big play, and second by being creative about the celebration itself. He also offered a reward to the fans for giving him that attention, in the form of newness and novelty. My sense is that Stevie doesn't like being put into a creativity-stifling box. I don't see anything redeeming about Whitner's personality. He's a self-centered loudmouth who can't back up his big talk. As long as he continues to celebrate himself--for example by claiming the problem in Buffalo wasn't him, but the scheme--or as long as others continue to celebrate him via unearned Pro Bowl invitations or other hype, I see no reason to leave him alone.

The Mike Williams pick was the sort of error a large portion of the fanbase would have made. The Donte Whitner pick was the kind of mistake the fanbase would have avoided. By this I mean that, going into the 2006 draft, no one here (that I recall) had advocated the Bills selecting Whitner 8th overall. After the Whitner pick was made, a significant portion of the people here became defenders of the decision. Long after those people stopped defending the absurdity of the pick, they still continued to defend him as a player. (And grossly overstated his level of play in the process.) You and I are on the same page regarding the stupidity of his draft selection. Bill from NYC's gut-level reaction to the pick was completely and abundantly justified. As for the hostility directed against him: I cannot think of one aspect of his personality which makes me want to like him. Not one. I don't agree with your comparison between Whitner's and Stevie Johnson's personalities. Johnson waits until after he's done something substantial before celebrating. Usually his celebrations are done in a jovial, lighthearted way. Whitner, on the other hand, has been a source of empty hype ever since he was drafted. Some of that hype came from the people who drafted him--people who expressed confidence he'd live up to his draft position. (And who later scoffed at the notion he'd been a reach.) Some of that hype came from his supporters here on these boards. But a lot of it came from Whitner himself. After Stevie Johnson dropped the game-winning touchdown against Pittsburgh, he seemed heartbroken. But after Whitner's putrid play cost his team a Super Bowl ring, did he take personal responsibility for the loss? No. Did he say, "It really hurts me to know that I let my teammates down in such a big game"? No. Instead, he went back to his usual hype mode, and almost immediately began writing checks his teammates would have to cash. Time will tell if his guarantees of a Super Bowl win for the 49ers will have more validity than his guarantee of a playoff appearance for the Bills. But boasts about future performance--either about his own or his team's--were not what was called for in that situation. Like Whitner, Ryan Fitzpatrick has also attracted his share of empty hype, and his share of supporters who greatly overrate his ability. But I can't once recall Fitzpatrick having said anything to contribute to that empty hype. No matter how frustrated I may become with Fitzpatrick's supporters, none of that frustration spills over onto him personally. While Fitzpatrick may lack the talent to ever be an average starting QB in the NFL, his personality is much more likeable than Whitner's.

> He wasn't the reason why SF lost that Superbowl. It's a mistake to try to identify any one thing as the reason the 49ers lost the Super Bowl. After any close loss, a team can point to any number of things which, had they gone differently, would have resulted in a win. That is what you are doing in your post. That said, if the 49ers had received average quality play from the SS position, there is little doubt they would have won.

Chad Pennington is a much more accurate passer than Fitz. However, I'm totally okay with keeping Fitz around as a backup, or as a guy who can start for another year while our rookie QB sits on the bench and learns. Just as Trent Edwards would have been a better option at backup than Tyler Thigpen; Fitz is also better than Thigpen.

Bills fans are going to spend a lot of time thinking about disappointment, for the same reason that Eskimos spend a lot of time thinking about snow. Over the last 10 - 15 years, the Bills have been surrounded by constant disappointments, wasted opportunities, and the hollow, empty fruits of short-sighted thinking. Whitner represented the second-highest draft pick the Bills have had in the last 20+ years. The highest was Mike Williams. But at least with Mike Williams there was closure. He was a bust, everyone here agrees he was a bust, his post-Buffalo words and deeds were about what you'd expect from a busted player trying (mostly unsuccessfully) to work his way back into the NFL. Whitner, on the other hand, has been a source of irritation ever since the decision to pick him was first announced. First, because it was an early signal that we couldn't trust the Levy/Jauron regime to use their most valuable resources effectively. Second, because he was a glaringly obvious reach. Third, because many people on this board defended the pick at the time, and continued to defend the player long after it became clear that the 8th overall pick used on him had been squandered. Fourth, because his personality is annoying. I can't recall his having said or done anything which would suggest humility. Everything with him is showy. The big, showy hit, but without wrapping up the guy he's supposed to be tackling. Big talk on Twitter, not backed up by subsequent deeds. The domestic incident at his home. His run-in with police. Nothing about his personality makes me like him or want to spend money rooting for him. Once Whitner hit free agency, GMs' lack of interest in him should have shown fans that he was a below-average safety; not the top-15 safety they'd claimed. But then another source of irritation happened: he made the Pro Bowl. Had he made the Pro Bowl by playing at a Pro Bowl level, I'd be perfectly fine with it. But no. We all saw the kind of safety he is in the Super Bowl. He made the Pro Bowl because of a few big highlight reel hits, his draft position, and because he was surrounded by a talented defense which helped mask the 49ers' weakness at SS. For there to be closure with Whitner, there needs to be a general consensus on the following: Picking him in the top-15 of the draft was a boneheaded move. Well-run teams realized this at the time that stupid decision was made. Whitner was, is, and will continue to be a below-average safety best suited to a backup role. His Pro Bowl invitation is a joke, and serves to de-legitimize the Pro Bowl selection process. If we on these boards can agree on those three things, it will be much easier to move past the embarrassment of the Whitner selection, and move on to other things. I would also like to see the front office do something positive--like obtain a franchise quarterback--so that we can focus on that, instead of on the idiocy of the Whitner selection.

You will like this thread.

And Rob Johnson owns a Super Bowl ring. That doesn't mean that either player was a significant contributing factor to his team's success.

Thanks guys!

Steve: "Today's game is the first time a non-human player has cracked an NFL starting lineup." John: "That's right Steve. Jack is a 170 pound spectral pygmy chameleon. He'll be playing free safety." Steve: "Normally those things only weigh a few ounces, but this one's been genetically engineered." John: "I didn't know you were allowed to play non-human players." Steve: "Phil Luckett is a very experienced referee. If he doesn't have a problem with it, neither do I." John: "There are also a few other rules-related things going on. They seem to have given the chameleon a specially designed helmet. And they're using modified searchlights to keep him warm while he's on the field." Steve: "We'll soon be able to get a good look at him, because play is underway. The quarterback drops back, sets, looks, throws! And the chameleon! I can't believe it! The chameleon caught the ball with his tongue like he was catching a fly! That tongue has to be at least 20 feet long! He just snatched the ball right out of the air! And now he's hauled down after his interception return." John: "That interception return has to be the slowest running I've ever seen from a football player during a game. But was it really an interception?" Steve: "I think you do have to call it an interception. The rules say you have to secure control of the ball. They don't specify how. The people who wrote the rules never envisioned a situation in which a player would be able to swallow the ball in its entirety with his mouth. But as far as I can tell, it's perfectly legal." John: "And he made a football move after securing control. I think you're right about it being an interception." Steve: "Even though this guy is as slow as molasses, safeties like this could become the wave of the future. They'd be even more effective in the red zone; where the smaller field would make it easier for them to get good tongue coverage over the whole field." John: "If slow, undersized safeties with big mouths and reptilian brains are the wave of the future, teams should start cloning Donte Whitner."

Joe Flacco was drafted in the first round of 2008. Earlier in that first round, the Bills chose . . . Leodis McKelvin. At the end of the 2008 season, Jabari Greer became a free agent and left.