Orton's Arm

Losman isn't worth a high 2nd round pick, and I'd be very surprised if anyone was foolish enough to offer one for him. If someone does, then by all means the Bills should take it. Personally, I'd be perfectly happy to trade him away for a 3rd round pick. My hope is for this team to win the Super Bowl, and that's not going to happen in 2008. Better to get a 3rd round pick (who can help the team beyond just this year) than to lose out on that first day pick for a one and done type player.

A well-run team will learn from the past. Bad teams dismiss the past as "the magical land called Retrospect."

Back in the 2000 draft, the Bills used their first pick on Erik Flowers (26th overall), their 2nd round pick on Travares Tillman (58th overall), their 3rd round pick on Corey Moore, their 4th round pick on Avion Black, their 5th round pick on Sammy Morris, their 6th round pick on Leif Larson, and their 7th round pick on Drew Haddad. Let's say that, instead, they had chosen to trade all their picks for the 9th overall selection, and had drafted Brian Urlacher. I think it's pretty obvious that the Bills would have gotten better value from that one pick than they received from all their picks put together. I realize that's just one example. Let me give another. In the 2002 draft, the Bills used their 1st round pick on Mike Williams (4th overall), their 2nd round pick on Josh Reed, their 3rd round pick on Coy Wire, (they had no 4th round pick), their 5th round pick on Justin Bannan, their 6th round pick on Kevin Thomas, and their 7th round pick on Mike Pucillo. Would the Bills have been better off trading all that away to take Julius Peppers 2nd overall? Absolutely! In the 2004 draft, the Bills took Lee Evans in the 1st round (13th overall), J.P. Losman in the first round (23rd overall), Tim Anderson in the 3rd, Tim Euhus in the 4th, and Dylan McFarland and Jonathan Smith in the 7th. Personally, I'd trade all those guys away for Larry Fitzgerald (3rd overall, 6'3", has averaged about 200 more receiving yards per year than Lee Evans). In the 2005 draft, the Bills took Roscoe Parrish in the 2nd round, Kevin Everett in the 3rd, Duke Preston in the 4th, Eric King in the 5th, Justin Geisinger in the 6th, and Lionel Gates in the 7th. I'd gladly give all that up in exchange for OG Logan Mankins (32nd overall pick). That's four drafts--out of the last eight--where one player has proved to be worth more than all our draft picks combined. So let's say you're the GM, and you're confident you've identified a real difference maker, who will go early in the draft. And you look at the guys who are likely to be around when your team is picking, and you just don't have the same level of confidence in them that you have in that one guy you've identified. Under those circumstances, it might well make sense to trade up.

I agree completely. I have the feeling that most of the people who voted for Astrobot to trade down had been under the impression he was still at #11, not #17. @Astrobot: why do you plan to use a 3rd round pick on an OG, rather than on a center?

Yes!!!! I'll be the first to state that the backup QBs available in free agency are very underwhelming this year. We'd almost be better off drafting a rookie to be the long-term solution to backup QB; because the available crop of free agent QBs is very weak. Over the course of the 2008 season, the rookie represents a probable downgrade from Losman at the backup QB position. Also, Losman is at his best when he's coming in off the bench; when the other team has prepared a gameplan for some other QB. That makes him better as a backup than as a starter. But how many game will the expected downgrade in backup QB play really cost us? Of the (hypothetically speaking) four games Edwards might be injured in, the Bills might have lost, say, 1 - 2 of those games even with Losman in there. Of the 2 - 3 games the Bills might have won with Losman under center, how many might they win with the rookie QB taking the snaps? Knowing this coaching staff, they'd keep the game plan conservative, keep the rookie from costing the team the game, and try to win with defense and Marshawn Lynch. That plan would probably win the Bills 1 - 2 games for every four that Edwards is injured. It would be very surprising if the difference between Losman and the rookie cost the Bills more than just one football game. Bear in mind that the difference between those two players won't matter except in games where Edwards can't play. Also, the difference between the two will grow smaller as the season wears on, and the rookie absorbs more information. So let's say that the expected price of trading away Losman is one less win next season. Compare that price to the benefit the 2nd round pick might be providing. Let's say the 2nd round pick is a center to replace Melvin Fowler. Over the course of this guy's career, getting solid play from the center position will make the difference between winning and losing in multiple football games. The expected benefit (solid play from the center position, or whichever other position the Bills choose, for many years to come) far exceeds the expected cost (one less win in 2008).

The best-articulated argument in favor of taking a cornerback in round 1 is the one Chris Brown made; so I'll respond to it. I think there need to be two phases to rebuilding a team. The first is where you build the core of the team; acquiring players who have the potential to help you for 10 years or more. Ideally, a good number of those players will be game changers: defensive ends that need to be double-teams, offensive linemen that can block someone else's Bruce Smith one-on-one, receivers that need double coverage, guys like that. You keep drafting guys like that until you have a solid core. Once that solid core has been built, your team should start experiencing some success. You'll start to realize that you're maybe a few players away from serious Super Bowl contention. At that point, you can afford the luxury of going to step 2: using draft picks on guys who can maybe give you 5 - 6 years before they're through. This is where my team building philosophy differs substantially from TD's. TD jumped straight into step 2 (using picks on transitory players) without having the discipline or the patience to properly execute step 1 (use the draft to build a solid core). Arguably, TD's most successful draft for the Bills was his first--the draft of 2001. His first pick in that draft was for a CB; presumably to replace Antoine Winfield. Given that TD was the one who let Antoine Winfield walk in free agency, it stood to reason that he'd ultimately end up letting Nate Clements walk too, after his contract was up. TD used a second round on a RB; despite the fact RBs have short careers. Two years later, he used a first round pick to draft a replacement for said running back. TD's tactics (i.e., player selection) were strong, his strategy was weak. By the start of the 2007 season, the only two things we had to show for that draft were Aaron Schobel and the 3rd round pick we got for Henry. As "transitory" as the league may be, good teams are not built by people who act as TD acted while he was here in Buffalo. Peyton Manning has been taking snaps for Indy his whole career. Marvin Harrison has been playing for Indy his whole career. Jeff Saturday has been the Colts' center since 2000. With core players like that, the Colts have had an explosive offense every year for quite some time. Without a similar core of players, the Bills have not been in a position to be as good a team as the Colts. The Colts will remain the better team, until their core becomes old/ineffective, or until the Bills succeed in building a solid core of their own. They're partially on their way to doing so. Guys like Poz, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, John McCargo, etc., provide a nucleus of players who should be able to make solid contributions for a long time. I'm pleased with the way the management has built this nucleus, but more work is required. The team is not yet in a position where it can afford to use a first round pick on a guy who will leave after his first contract is over. The nucleus we're building needs a big, physical WR, it needs a TE, it needs another DE, it needs a center. It will probably take at least two drafts to fill those holes. And they can all be filled with players who, if successful, will end up spending their entire careers in Buffalo. Once all that's been taken care of, and a solid core put into place, it will then be time to start thinking about using draft picks for players who won't be around for more than 5 - 6 years.

I thought my earlier post had been clear, but I guess it wasn't. The Bills' organizational track record is clear: this team is NOT willing to pay to re-sign high performing CBs. Period. Given that fact, if the Bills take a CB in the first round, and if he does well, the Bills' track record indicates he will NOT be given an extension. If the Bills are not willing to give extensions to high-performing CBs, they shouldn't be using first round picks on CBs in the first place. First round picks should be used on guys who, if they work out well, will end up spending their useful careers in Buffalo. First round picks should NOT be used on guys you're planning to let walk via free agency after their first contract is over.

After reading this, I'm truly hoping the Bills don't waste a first round pick on DRC. There should be much better players available at #11.

Therein lies the problem. Over the years, the Bills have shown they ARE willing to use first round picks on CBs, and ARE NOT willing to give those first round CBs extensions. Their failure to re-sign Clements demonstrates that the second half of this philosophy is still in place. Allowing both halves of this philosophy to remain in play bleeds the team of first round picks that could have been used elsewhere. The Bills need to build a solid core of difference makers, and that's very difficult to do when your plan is to use first round picks on "first contract and out" type players.

Of course the Bills should trade away Losman for a 2nd rounder, if given the opportunity to do so. That one's a no-brainer. I doubt the Ravens will be stupid enough to offer us a 2nd rounder for him. Maybe they'd be willing to give us their 2nd rounder for Losman + our 3rd round pick. I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

I agree with your philosophy--you're a lot better off getting one Bruce Smith than two Chris Kelsays. That said, I'm not necessarily convinced that Gholston is going to be significantly better than, say, Harvey.

The last time one of our first round CBs met expectations, the Jauron/Modrack/etc. group allowed him to walk in free agency. If we draft, say, Dominique Rogers Cromartie, and he meets or exceeds expectations, how do I know that he won't be allowed to walk in free agency after his first contract has come to an end?

That's a great post!

I think the Bills should seriously consider taking Limas Sweed. Pat Kirwin has him ranked as the best WR in this year's class. Normally, taking a WR in the first is very risky. I read an article on NFL.com about the topic. Of the first round WRs it looked at, the overwhelming majority either hadn't had any 1000 yard seasons, or else had just one such season. The article went on to say that the reason WR was so hard a position to evaluate is because, in college, a lot of elite WRs rely on sheer athleticism to get open. In the pros, you can't "out-athlete" the opposing defensive back unless your name is Randy Moss. A lot of times, college WRs that relied on "out-athleting" the defensive back fail to make the transition to the pros. What makes Sweed a solid pick is that he's the most "polished" (read: NFL ready) of the upper echelon receiving class. Kirwin wrote, I also really like what I've read about his work ethic; and I think that can make a huge difference in the NFL. I've heard it said that Jerry Rice worked harder than you'd expect from a rookie free agent struggling to make the final roster. I don't think Sweed is the next Jerry Rice, but all else being equal, I'd just as soon have a guy that also has an outstanding work ethic. At 6'4", and with the second-highest vertical leap of the 11 WRs mentioned, Sweed can be exactly the target the Bills need in the red zone. I'd be perfectly happy for the Bills to trade down and take Sweed; and I'd even be content if they stayed put and took him at #11.

Trading down and taking Sweed would be an excellent idea.

I've been thinking about this guy, and I'm not so sure taking him would represent the best possible move. Brad Butler is a solid if unspectacular player. This team has bigger needs than finding an upgrade to him. I've read that Albert sometimes takes downs off; which is not something I want to see in an offensive lineman. I'd welcome comments about this from those who have seen this guy play. Some teams seem to be thinking in terms of moving Albert to tackle, which is typically a higher paid position. That shouldn't create any problems right away. But once his first contract is done; he might decide he can get more money elsewhere, by moving to tackle, than by staying in Buffalo and remaining a guard. Taking Albert probably wouldn't be a disaster. In fact, it would probably be a pretty good move; allowing the Bills to significantly upgrade the right guard position. I just feel there are other ways the 11th overall pick could be used that would help this team more than Albert would.

He has long arms.

Trading away our first round pick for an aging player the Patriots no longer wanted was a short-sighted and stupid move. Yes, it was. Other than his first eight games, what did Bledsoe do for Dallas? What we gave for him was a sunk cost--a sunk cost we should never have paid in the first place. The line played well in the second half of 2004; but Bledsoe's play was still mediocre. Losman took what? All of three snaps his rookie year? And it's not unheard-of to put a quarterback on the field during his second year in the league. Giving Losman an extra year on the bench wouldn't have made him into David Garrard. Of what first round QB is that not the case? Are you saying the switch from Losman to Edwards was done merely to please fickle fans? That would be an . . . interesting interpretation of the situation. I agree Roscoe isn't comparable to Wes Welker; and that his production up to this point hasn't justified his 2nd round draft status. I agree with your criticisms of Donahoe, but you're being unduly pessimistic about how long it will take to dig out of the mess he created. If the Bills keep drafting like they have the past two years, and if they keep key players like Evans, they will reach the playoffs sooner rather than later.

Why are you tired of trading up? The first time Marv et al traded up, they got John McCargo; and the second time around, they got Poz. I'd rather have one guy who can make a difference, than two or three guys who won't be on the roster after a few years.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessionid=3...mp;confirm=true If that URL proves to be messed-up, go to the NFL homepage, and click through the lead articles in the upper left corner.

I'd forgotten about that time warp thingy. Can we set the dial back a few more years? I miss the '80s.

I'm not exactly sure why the Bills should consider using a first day pick on a RB anyway. We have Lynch, Fred Jackson, Dwayne Wright, and a ton of holes elsewhere.

For anyone who wants to watch the video, go to www.nfl.com and you'll see a link on their homepage. You don't need to be signed into, or a member of, anything in order to watch the video.

I woke up this morning and thought to myself, you know what? Something feels different. . . . I feel exactly one year younger. Then I logged on here!

Again, I've seen GG describe himself as a liberal. The only types of opinions I've seen him post have been consistent with liberalism. If you're going to try to tell me he's not a liberal, you're going to have to give me something more specific than, "I know him better than you do."