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Dr. Who

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Posts posted by Dr. Who

  1. There isnt one draft site that has Mahomes as the top QB. What makes you so confident he will transition to the pro game so well that you are willing to spend a top ten pick on him?

    His initial post indicates that he thinks his floor is Dalton and his ceiling is Favre. If you think that, you are probably willing to spend a top ten pick on him.

    Consensus doesn't really matter, though I suspect a number of teams have a higher valuation on Mahomes than they are going to express in public.

    Getting it right matters. Mahomes is not without risk, but no-risk qbs go first overall. Folks will have different criteria on risk-reward. I roll the dice on the fella.

  2.  

    I'd take Mahomes at #10 not only because he has the great talent, but he also has competitiveness, the right personality and the love of the game. You get that kind of combination, and you start feeling comfortable that he's not the boom/bust risk the "experts" say. His floor starts looking like Dalton, while his ceiling is Favre. Draft him and sit him for the year regardless. Develop him the right way.

     

    You're an NFL afterthought until you get the QB, and whichever "elite" non-QB player you draft now, the chances are great that player won't be here in five years while the Bills are still looking for their franchise QB.

    Well, I agree with you. I hope OBD is on the same page, but I doubt it.

  3. I draft the qb. My order of preference: Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

    If you think one of the available qbs is a franchise qb, why wouldn't you draft them? It's the most important position in today's NFL.

    It doesn't matter how strong or weak the 2018 class is in that case.

    The people who are passing on the qb just don't think highly of any of them.

    This is not 2013 redux imo.


    The reason is because there are so many more high end prospects. Some will improve their stock and others will regress. By the time the draft starts next year maybe Josh Allen is the guy? Or Mason Rudolph? Or Luke Falk? Or Jake Browning?

     

    The other reason is that every draft pick is a gamble. QBs are always going to get pushed up the board. If we were taking a guy at 10 this year, he by most accounts, won't be one of the 20 best players in this draft (according to grades). That doesn't mean that he won't pan out. If you were to take a QB at 10 next year, there are probably 3 players today at QB that are considered top 10 players in the 2018 draft. We know a lot can change from year to year but some drafts are better at some positions than others. It isn't a "wait until next year" as much as it is "get the best value." This is a GREAT year to need DBs and a lousy year to need OL. Next year appears to be a very string QB class. It can always change but with the depth of the group it would be nearly impossible for it to be a lesser class than this. This QB class is okay (better than 2013 & maybe a little worse than 2014). Next year's class looks to be top heavy like 2015 and deep like 2004.

     

    You can't draft 1st round QBs 2 years in a row. You just can't. You can't let Pro Bowl players pass while you keep trying guys out. You probably can't even do it every 2 years. In the salary cap era you need some of your better players to be on their rookie deals.

    Depth at DB means you can get a good one in the second round, no?

  4.  

    I don't see any way where the Browns will be drafting another QB from Texas Tech after the Manziel debacle.

     

    While it's totally unfair to Mahomes, it would no doubt be a hard sell to say the least for that franchise to take another crack at it.

     

    I'm sure Jackson is talking him up because he wants Mahomes to be picked ahead of their #12 pick in hopes that their preferred, "more ready" QB will be there.

    Manziel played for Texas A&M, no?

  5.  

     

    Are you familiar with the definition of the word standard? How can LPGA demand standards from players if their enforcement policies are not based on any standard whatsoever?

     

    You are lost in the weeds on this. I don't know Lexi Whatsherface from Ryu Winner, from any other woman golfer. They should all follow the rules. I think that is the point you are trying to make. The rub here is that the rules are not being applied equally. Equal application is a core principle of any rule. I don't care if the rule is a 78 stroke penalty, a lifetime ban and handcuffing her to the ball washer closest to the alligator pond as a punishment for sneezing on a Tuesday. That's all fine. The problem is that the penalty needs to apply to everyone. The LPGA is applying it to the whim of random viewers watching the 5% of shots which are televised. THAT is dumb and there is no way to argue that it is fair at all.

    That's what I meant by "the scrutiny is selective." I don't think he cares.

  6.  

    Mahomes is being discussed with North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer as the top quarterbacks. Kingsbury believes Mahomes won’t make it past No. 15, which means the Browns would have to take him at No. 12.

    They’ve worked him out privately in their continuing search for a franchise quarterback, and coach Hue Jackson has expressed his preference for the size and arm talent Mahomes brings.

    “He’s another one of these young players in the draft who’s very talented,” Jackson said at the owners meetings. “Has a big arm as we all know. I think he’s tough.”

    http://www.chroniclet.com/browns-notes/2017/04/06/NFL-Draft-Texas-Tech-QB-Patrick-Mahomes.html

     

    I think there is a reasonable chance, despite what mock drafts are projecting, that all four top qbs get drafted in the first round. For the business as usual crowd, this is a great opportunity to trade back, get extra picks, and stack the defense. What we ought to do is choose the best qb on the board at #10, hopefully Mahomes.

  7. When is this archaic franchise going to learn that if you want a franchise qb you need to select the best qb in the draft and not wait for a lesser player because you are searching for value. The issue shouldn't be who is the best valued qb at a later round but who is the best qb and has the greatest chance to be a franchise qb.

     

    Derek Carr was rated as a lower first round to second round type of player. He was selected at the top of the second round. If the Bills would have selected him in the first round would anyone be complaining? If the Bills, a qb starved franchise, would have seized the opportunity then to select a qb then the trajectory and dynamic of this franchise would be dramatically different.

     

    This staid franchise has not had a legitimate franchise qb for twenty years or so, since the retirement of Kelly. It still hasn't learned that dithering and passivity on addressing that position are not responses that solve the problem that has kept this franchise stuck in the mud. The cycle of futility never ends because this franchise seems incapable of changing. It's comfort zone is so small that it can't find its way out of the small box that they jumped into.

    Completely agree. There are a lot of folks on this board, however, who agree with the standard fill holes strategy and think one is a childish, instant gratification dope for thinking qb this year.

  8. My pick at QB would be Davis Webb. After watching them all {Qbs} talk included . He strikes me the most.

    I like Mahomes, Trubisky, and Watson. I suspect Kizer might be EJ 2.0, but if he fell to the second, I might take a chance.

    Otherwise, I'd just pass on qb.

  9. Good thing your feelings and emotions about fairness and advantage don't rule pro sports. Just try that garbage against someone that doesn't like you with a $1 on the game. Also i've read about 12,000 posts by now how steroids and other injectables didn't have any big advantage in hitting home runs in baseball and was never pursuaded.

    Well, I didn't think I was making a statement designed to engender such an emotive rejoinder. Prudential judgement is keyed to the specific, particular case, so nothing I said has anything to do with baseball and steroids. There is no self-evident logical necessity in affirming something excessive regarding Thompson's punishment that would require one to dismiss the effect of steroids on performance. But I surmise we have differing criteria for what constitutes thinking and the nature of appeal to emotion.

  10. Over 100s of rounds of golf, sometimes with people who would cheat on every shot they could, I have never seen a person "miss" by that much on remarking their ball bu accident. Maybe this isn't the first time for her or they have developed a culture of allowing this, but any time $$$ is involved then you are watched like a hawk.

    I don't like how they brought the hammer down, which is a totally different matter.

    It was an awkward re-placement, no doubt, but I find it hard to see an appreciable advantage in such a short putt.

    My main point is the hammer was excessive and the scrutiny selective.

  11. I am one of those who thinks we need to address qb early, so I don't like this strategy.

    I do believe OBD will probably follow something like this plan. I will give my alternatives following your tactics.

     

     

    If you go with Reddick, I hope you are trading back to take him. #10 is a little rich, I think, though he's an excellent lb choice.

    For the second round pick, I like Budda Baker or Obi Melifonwu.

    My under the radar third round choice would be Adam Shaheen te from Ashland.

  12. Of course none of this goes to prove that Mahomes should be the pick at 10. If only QB matters, then why not pick QB at every single pick until you get it right? No you can't just keep blindly taking QBs without logic behind it and that's really what you're saying here. You're basically defending the Manuel pick in 2013.

    What a complete and utter non sequitur. No one has said "only QB matters." Some fellas think they are funny or are making a strong satiric point when they suggest taking 53 qbs, as if they were producing a reductio ad absurdam argument when they are merely being absurd. Franchise qb remains disproportionately important to success in the NFL. Obviously, one needs good players. One needs to fill "holes" as much as possible. Arguing for a priority to qb is not the same as dismissing other needs. Further, I don't see many folks saying one should "blindly" choose a qb. There are ample examples of those who have articulated a genuine argument as to why Mahomes could become a franchise qb. It's fine to disagree, but dishonest to pretend that those who advocate for taking a qb have not presented reasons why Mahomes, Trubisky, or Watson might be worthy of an early pick. It is not a proven certitude that this draft class is the same as 2013. I think it is clearly a better draft class. So, it is not "basically defending the Manuel pick" unless one presupposes this is a poor draft class at qb.

  13.  

    It's true. Air Raid was for underdog schools who got the QB's no one else wanted. Nick Foles and Case Keenum not that impressive. But Air Raid is now getting Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Luke Falk type prospects so this way of thinking will soon be over.

    For once, OBD, get ahead of the curve.

  14.  

    Weighing Pros and Cons for Mahomes:

     

    Pros:

     

    Elite, Once in a decade arm talent

     

    Very Good Accuracy

     

    Great Pocket Presence

     

    Fast Release

     

    Ability to Throw Off Balance/Different Platforms

     

    Ability to Throw on Move

     

    Good Movement in Pocket to Evade Rush

     

    Can Throw With Anticipation and Touch

     

    Can Go Through Progressions

     

    Can Manipulate Defenders With Eyes

     

    Field General Qualities

     

    Natural Athlete

     

    Not a running QB but can scramble for a 1st down

     

    Good Size

     

    Adequate Height

     

    Very Athletic

     

    Toughness

     

    Fiery Leader

     

    Loves Football

     

    Intelligent

     

    Swagger

     

    Cons:

     

    Played in Spread Offense

     

    Not used to calling out plays in huddle, will need to learn verbiage

     

    Not used to playing under center

     

    Very Raw in throwing under 3, 5, and 7 step drops

     

    Over Confident in Arm

     

    Sloppy, inconsistent footwork

     

     

    He checks so many boxes and few college QB's play under center in pro-style offenses. He does need to be reined in with a strong coaching staff.

    An impressive list of transferable traits that make Mahomes really intriguing. But, you know, a fella posts a link about the Air Raid offense and "buyer beware."

    Deep thought there. Did you know, Jeffismagic, that the Air Raid offense has never produced an NFL qb of merit? Like, no one has said that in this ginormous thread. Forget everything else. Forget that most Air Raid qbs are small, quick fellas like Johnny football or that individuals can actually learn and transcend the limits of a system, especially if they have rare, superior measurables.

     

    But for some, Air Raid = takes off list of draftable players or waits until a late round to chance it.

  15. Your ire is both juvenile and misplaced. Snowflakes want to live in a bubble where everyone agrees with them.

    I am a Christian conservative with a PhD in the humanities. I am absolutely used to being a minority and shut down by the snowflake totalitarianism you supposedly abhor.

    This has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with whether the advent of modern technology and the hyper-scrutiny of some golfers in particular situations is just or not.

    Those who think it is unjust are not communists or authoritarians. Indeed, a kind of reactionary and unthinking scrupulosity regarding rules is much more intrinsically authoritarian.

    If justice did not require careful consideration of a particular situation (the equity in a concrete dispute,) one could get a robot to read off the rules and penalties. Thompson did not "cheat" because the difference was utterly negligible and there was no intent to defraud competitors. Actual golfers know this, so they were sympathetic to Thompson, not self-righteously angry with her.

  16. A prudential judgement ought to be able to recognize justice beyond strict interpretation of the rules. A good golfer is placed under greater scrutiny. If you're having a bad day, you won't show up on telly for some nerd-accountant type to get upset and tattle. It was an excessive penalty. When the winner feels bad, you know the athletes recognize it was not real justice.

  17. When has a CB, S or WR ever been seen as the guy who turned around a franchise's fortunes?

     

    Yeah, yeah it takes a team, etc. etc.

     

    Let's get real: The Bills don't have a top QB.

     

    You don't trade for top QBs because they are few and far between.

    You don't sign top QBs in free agency because nobody lets them go, aside from a freak occurrence once a decade or so: Brees then Peyton.

     

    You need to draft one and hit on the pick. But this whiny, weak, pathetic, loser attitude of "well we might miss guys! Wahhhhh!" Is why this team has gone nowhere in terms of wins and losses for a generation.

    This. The only reason you pass on qb to fill a hole at cb, lb, wr etc. is if you determine there are no potential franchise qbs available at #10. There is probably at least one, imo, and the Bills need to take a shot. Mahomes has the highest ceiling. I am not discounting the risk, but I'd roll the dice. I also like Watson and Trubisky. But fellas like Kiper's Hair who claim inside knowledge say they are doing the same "fill the holes" strategy that has resulted in nearly twenty years of failure. Franchise qb and good coaching makes up for a lot of misses. Get those two right and you are almost always in the conversation. Figure it out OBD and show some guts.

  18. I don't think our draft currency cupboard is bare at all. We have a 2nd, 3rd and 5th to play with it, all of next year. We're not the Browns or Titans, but if the right player was identified, we could do it.

     

    Trading up for Sammy certainly stings for plenty of reasons, but I don't think that's a reason to be gunshy.

    I think its generally a mistake to raid 2018 draft picks to move up in the 2017 draft. Obviously, we could.

    I will reiterate. I would only think about such a move for a franchise qb.

  19. When you have only six picks in the draft, trading up is probably unwise. I don't think Allen would be worth the cost.

    DW continues to get raked over the coals for trading up for Sammy. Might be different without the injury issues and deficiencies at qb.

    Imo, we don't have the resources and I would only trade up if OBD has identified a franchise qb.

  20.  

    I like Mahomes... I'd even say go ahead and take him at 10 if you like him. But don't give the kid a hall of fame bust and act like there aren't reasons he's not the #1 overall pick. Cuz there are.

     

    Everyone says his arms so hot his footwork doesn't matter... and he'll learn to take snaps under center... and learn to call plays in the huddle....

     

    All of these things matter, and thats why he's not going #1 overall.

    I have been arguing that having Taylor on a team friendly contract gives one the opportunity to sit a qb and let him develop. Any qb taken at #10 or later will need time. I have not noticed a lot of posters thinking otherwise. There is one fella who is indeed promising the Hall of Fame. Most other posters are more rational in their evaluations. For the record, I like Mahomes, Trubisky, and Watson. I just believe we need to address qb now. I think it's a pretty good draft class, not a bad one or "meh" as many seem to believe. None of them are can't miss. It's still a risk, but good teams evaluate well and minimize risk. That hasn't been us, of course, but it isn't metaphysically impossible for the Bills to draft a good qb.

     

    All this assumes Taylor is not a franchise qb. Those who believe he is will naturally dissent.

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