Estro

Home run. Extra credit because you predicted #1 before Nolan Nawrocki's final mock draft where he also had Heyward-Bey going to the Raiders. And #2 correct on both scenarios. Nice picks!

Correct, and even further. Carolina traded away next years #1 for the second straight year to land him. Obviously had the guy graded out in the 1st round.

Now that all of the dust has settled let's dive into this and see how we all fared. I'll start off with my predictions first. #1 nailed it, although that probably wasn't a huge surprise as it seemed evident Orakpo just wasn't the type of player our team covets, at least not that high. #2 on the surface was incorrect, however if you take into account that the Broncos traded away next years #1 pick to move up and get Alphonso Smith early in the second I'm giving myself one half of a point. Some teams did indeed have the guy graded out pretty high.

As anyone who has been following my recent posts leading up to the draft knows........Nolan Nawrocki is hands down the best. After following his mocks and his player assessments the past 3 drafts it has become apparent that he has a lot of ins with teams. There is no way you can consistently pick as accurately as he does without having some true inside knowledge at what teams are thinking. His site Profootballweekly.com is by far and away THE BEST site for all draft needs. If you look at his top 100 prospects most go very near where he has them pegged. Don't want to look like I have a man crush here, but the guy deserves major props for his mock draft beakdowns.

He's a guy that really moved up draft boards the past couple of months. Mayock liked him a lot. Very nasty blocker who didn't do much of anything in the receiving game for UNC. However some people thought he had the potential in the passing game given the opportunity. I remember being impressed with him from a physical standpoint when Mike Mayock spoke of him on NFL Network weeks ago.

FWIW in the ProFootball Weekly magazine Nolan Nawrocki had Byrd rated as his #2 CB behind only Malcolm Jenkins. He thought he'd go in the 2nd-3rd round range, but he personally had him rated above Vontae Davis, Alphonso Smith and Darius Butler.

Likewise, and he will ultimately fall somewhere between those 2 picks I'm sure.

I've been thinking that Peria Jerry really seems to fit the bills scheme lately too.

More than what Peters got. Last years # 5 overall pick got a 5 year - $51 million contract with $23 million guaranteed. And you can expect that number to go up 5-10% this year. The #8 spot is where the Top 10 becomes somewhat affordable, last years #8, Derrick Harvey, received 5 years $33.4 million, $17.177 million guaranteed. And then #9 takes another nice dip down (Keith Rivers, 6 years - $23 million, $15.6 million guaranteed). With all that number crunching, my conclusion is: Do not trade up for anything past #8 and #9 is another $10 million cheaper than #8.

The way his board breaks down I wouldn't be opposed to the Bills addressing their defensive needs with the first two picks. Perhaps a combination of BJ Raji and then Sintim, Mathew or Brown whomever suits the Bills flavor. I will point out though, that I would prefer a trade of John Henderson (Jagiuars) for a mid round pick over selecting Raji at #11. Of all the rumors I've heard I really hope that the Henderson one is true. Time will tell.

Nawrocki's final player values and where he thinks they will come off the board. A very good draft day reference, this guy is very good. Be sure to check out his final mock tomorrow too. He usually posts it at profootballweekly.com around 11:30AM. Anyways heres the link: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDr...p100_042409.htm

Nolan Nawrocki, my go to man this time of year, has Nelson rated #56 in him most recent League Value chart, which emulates when he thinks players will come off the board. So don't be surprised to see him go in the id to late 2nd round.

"quick twitch athlete" "tightly wound" "more quick than fast" "tweener" "polished" "upside" "high ceiling" "late bloomer" "boom or bust potential"

I really can't see this being true. If so it makes the Jason Peters trade just that much worse. Granted Peters play was slipping and he probably wasn't worth $10 million a year. But I'd rather have an overpaid above average LT and be able to spend the #11 pick on another area of need. Last years #5 pick Glenn Dorsey signed a 5 year - $55 million contract with $23 million guaranteed. And that was actually a decent deal for KC as it represented a 1.3% contract decrease from the #5 overall selection the previous year Levi Brown (and only a .44% increase in guarenteed money when compared to Brown's). So the Bills would be looking at a 5 year - $58 million with above $25 million guaranteed. That is more money than Peters contract, and it cost us both 1st round picks. That would be probably one of the most moronic moves I've seen in the NFL in recent history. Like I said, let's hope this is a rumor or an intentional misleading from the Bills camp.

Maybe the points add up on this one, but that seems like a bad trade for the Bills. Looking at this year only we move down 9 spots in the 1st round to jump up by 11 spots for both our 2nd and 3rd round pick. That to me is not enough. But the way the Bills value those future 5th, 6th and 7th round picks you may just be on to something. By the way has it been actually confirmed that the Bills wanted a 4th and future 6th rather than a 3rd. If so I can just picture Rob Kraft and Bill Bellichick chuckling over that one.

After paying #1 money I think the Lions would be more than happy to trade down from #20 or stay put rather than trading up.

I don't think Andy Reid values RB's in the 1st round, and I don't know that I bame him. I think I've heard he's never drafted a RB in the first round, but sometimes those stats can be very misleading. For example if you find a franchise RB in the 3rd round than you don't even think about taking a RB in the 1st round for at least the next 5-6 years. As much as I'd like Pettigrew at #28 I don't see it happening. The Bills would probably have to trade back up into the high 20's to snag him. That's what sucks so much about not getting the eagles #21 pick.

I'm not saying that Modrak is going to speak the truth at the combine, but his comments about Orakpo didn't seem that convincing. In particular he doesn't seem to think he is a speed rusher. He goes on to say that Orakpo does more than rush the passer, but anyone who is familiar with his game tape knows he struggles holding the point of attack against the run. So if he's not a speed rusher, and he's been average against the run in college is he really worth the #11 pick. I don't think so. 1. Go to Press Conferences on the side 2. Click to Page 2 at bottom 3. Click Tom Modrak Interview http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/v...5e-61bb32dc3646 Around 3:14 he fields a question about Orakpo.

I agree that it is unlikely the bills take Tyson Jackson. My personal belief though, is that he'd be a good pick for the Bills. When the weather gets nasty in November and December you need some stout guys to stop the run up front and that's what he is. Plus on 3rd and distance he could kick inside and rush the passer. He would make more of an impact on day 1 then Maybin or Brown could provide. I also DO NOT like Orakpo and I don't think the Bills do either.

fixed

Also look at how low they have BJ Raji rated. It staring to look like he may be available when we are on the clock. The more you look at this chart the more you realize the Bills would benefit greatly from a trade down with a team in the 17-21 range. For a jump like that the team would have to cough up their 1st and 2nd ad in return we'd probably have to throw them back our original 4th round pick. Under a scenario like this the Bills would select at say #17, #28, #42, #49. Then with our 3rd round pick and the Eagles 4th round pick we have the ammo to come up a few spots to target the players we really like. Bit of a pipe dream, but seems like the best way to fill our many holes (OT, OG, DE, LB, TE, SS). With our picks as is, here is my REALISTIC mock: #11- Tyson Jackson #28- Clint Sintim #42- Andy Levitre #75- Chip Vaughn With a team trading up (we'll use the JETS for this mock): BILLS get: #17 & #53 (1320 pts.), JETS get: #11 & #110 (1324 pts.) #17- Robert Ayers #20- Brandon Pettigrew, worth 850 pts. (Lions get #28 & #75 = 875 pts.) #42-Andy Levitre #53-Jamon Meredith #75- TRADED to LIONS

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDr...llPositions.htm Funny how there has been absolutely no talk about Clint Sintim in the media and he has been graded as a first round talent all along. Guys like Larry English have been hyped but Clint Sintim has flown under the media radar all along. It'll be interesting to see if he actually is selected in the first round. I think he'd be a great fit for the Bills, as he has been a solid pass rusher and could fill a hole at OLB. For the record I don't think he'll go in the 25-30 range so we may have a chance. Also interesting is the fading of Everette Brown. Not too long ago it looked like he may not last until our pick. Now according to this board he may be around for our second 1st round pick. I'm not sure that will actually come true, but it would be nice.

Agreed. I'd pay attention to him when Georgia was on t.v. just because I knew there was a lot of hype about him. It seemed every time I watched him he was throwing a jump ball off his back foot. He had some really poor games versus better competition, which also leads me to believe he's going to bust.

On Saturday night we'll take a look back and see who was dead on and who was way off.

I'll start it off: 1) Brian Orakpo is not selected in the Top 10 and the Bills pass on him at #11. 2) Alphonso Smith is drafted in the 1st round (I think this maybe the guy the Patriots like, more so than Darius Butler)